Who Should the Red Sox Trade For?

[notin]

But I don't really see the foundation to this argument. I don't think the fact that a sample is spread out necessarily diminishes its value.

 

I do. Especially if it is spread out over 9 years. Can you do everything today you did exactly as you did it nine years ago?

[mvp 78]

Plus, we have Phillips waiting in the wings. A couple of bullpen arms would be nice. i don't like the quality of the available starters being mentioned, so I will hope that a one of or a combination of Pom, Wright, and Velasquez can hold down the 5th slot. Unless we can steal Manny Machado, I don't see the need for another bat, but I would kick the tires on Wilson Ramos at catcher.

 

Phillips has only played 4 games so far in Lowell. He's nowhere near ready.

[moonslav59]

It is hard to know what the Red Sox should pursue in the trade market without more info on Pedroia's knee. I'm starting to like the idea of acquiring a SP. True, the Red Sox don't need one, but it would give them the flexibility to move Price to the bullpen in October. And Pomeranz should be moved to the bullpen now.

 

I would rather acquire a SP and move Pomeranz to the pen now and Price later than acquire a relief pitcher.

 

A package of Dalbec and Beeks would bring back an excellent starting pitcher.

 

I'm not sure about "excellent," and I'm not sure we'd get anybody better than Porcello, ERod, Price or the Wright/Velazquez/Johnson combination.

[Bellhorn04]

I do. Especially if it is spread out over 9 years. Can you do everything today you did exactly as you did it nine years ago?

 

In my job, absolutely. Physical stuff, maybe not exactly. But the differences are not large at all. Let's not make 9 years sound like forever.

[moonslav59]

If Pom is not providing anything to the team success and has a salary of 8.5 mil, can we free up some cap space by working a deal. Same with Nunez at $4 mil. Maybe a versatile infielder would with a couple of years of control would woerk better for us than Nunez.

 

Yes, I've mentioned this before about freeing up budget space to avoid the max penalty, but I doubt we can trade either one without paying some of their money.

[kenmeister]

I'm not sure about "excellent," and I'm not sure we'd get anybody better than Porcello, ERod, Price or the Wright/Velazquez/Johnson combination.

 

Given that we may not be able to hold onto Chris Sale or Rick Porcello long term, we need to hold onto the Erod/Wright/Velazquez/Johnson/Beeks squad and for once, keep and develop pitching talent that is cheap. The Price contract may be our Ellsbury contract; by even next year he may end up in the pen.

[mvp 78]

Given that we may not be able to hold onto Chris Sale or Rick Porcello long term, we need to hold onto the Erod/Wright/Velazquez/Johnson/Beeks squad and for once, keep and develop pitching talent that is cheap. The Price contract may be our Ellsbury contract; by even next year he may end up in the pen.

 

Keep Sale, let Porcello go eventually. Velazquez and Johnson are replaceable but cheap swing guys for now. I can't imagine Wright commanding much of a contract as a FA. Pom is outta here.

[notin]

In my job, absolutely. Physical stuff, maybe not exactly. But the differences are not large at all. Let's not make 9 years sound like forever.

 

It is forever in an occupation where the average career length is one season...

[Bellhorn04]

It is forever in an occupation where the average career length is one season...

 

So why'd you ask me about me LOL

 

Some ballplayers also have 20 year careers.

 

I think the point is you can't really apply one general rule to everything.

[notin]

So why'd you ask me about me LOL

 

Some ballplayers also have 20 year careers.

 

I think the point is you can't really apply one general rule to everything.

 

But the point is it always gets applied the other way - with post-season stats all lumped together as if they all occurred in the same week. It’s almost as dumb as when they give you a player’s stats vs one team. For some veteran players, that can literally be against dozens of pitchers who had nothing in common except wearing the same laundry...

[Bellhorn04]

But the point is it always gets applied the other way - with post-season stats all lumped together as if they all occurred in the same week. It’s almost as dumb as when they give you a player’s stats vs one team. For some veteran players, that can literally be against dozens of pitchers who had nothing in common except wearing the same laundry...

 

Postseason sample sizes and dispersion are hugely problematic, I won't argue that. Although some pitchers, the Big 3 from the Braves, Pettitte and Schilling for example, accumulated some relatively large ones.

[Dojji]

But the point is it always gets applied the other way - with post-season stats all lumped together as if they all occurred in the same week. It’s almost as dumb as when they give you a player’s stats vs one team. For some veteran players, that can literally be against dozens of pitchers who had nothing in common except wearing the same laundry...

 

Or you could look at it another way. With a large number of data points from a diverse period of his career, the cross section problem is minimized and we get a better idea about what Cabrera can be in October than we could if we had just one relatively large sample size.

 

In other words, trends you can identify from smaller samples at a large number of different times in a player's career will tend to hold true throughout said career.

[notin]

Or you could look at it another way. With a large number of data points from a diverse period of his career, the cross section problem is minimized and we get a better idea about what Cabrera can be in October than we could if we had just one relatively large sample size.

 

In other words, trends you can identify from smaller samples at a large number of different times in a player's career will tend to hold true throughout said career.

 

I'm sure if I looked into it, I could find as many samples to disprove this as you could to prove it.

 

I also think anything a player did 9 years ago is not relevant today. Players just don't maintain the same physical skills at the same level over that time. To me, you can't tell me on one hand a player needs to "make adjustments" to survive in this league, and then hold him accountable for his pre-adjustment stats as if they can be used to predict what he will do tomorrow.

 

For any stats, I find anything older than 3 years old is probably obsolete by now. And in the post-season, it just isn't fair to take data points from a widespread number of years, when the player was in varying stages of development and adjustment, and very likely in different physical and/or health conditions, and then lump them all together and say it paints an accurate picture...

[notin]

Postseason sample sizes and dispersion are hugely problematic, I won't argue that. Although some pitchers, the Big 3 from the Braves, Pettitte and Schilling for example, accumulated some relatively large ones.

 

They did. But they weer all from different years, etc. These pitchers were probably in varying health and fatigue in each season. Even one season to the next, you might be looking at two completely different pitchers despite it being the same guy...

[Dojji]

I'm sure if I looked into it, I could find as many samples to disprove this as you could to prove it.

 

Doubt it. It's a bedrock of statistics. If you get a deep sample, go wide. The width of a sample can control noise almost as well as raw quantity of sample.

[Bellhorn04]

They did. But they weer all from different years, etc. These pitchers were probably in varying health and fatigue in each season. Even one season to the next, you might be looking at two completely different pitchers despite it being the same guy...

 

So does this make Schilling's postseason numbers more impressive?

[Dojji]

So does this make Schilling's postseason numbers more impressive?

Yes. I can't think of another pitcher as consistently effective in the postseason as Schilling

[OH FOY]

For me Bob Gibson. He beat the Yanks Powerhouse as a Rookie, dominated the Sox, and had a hell of a Series against Detroit. Koufax up there too. Edited July 13, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Dojji]

No knock on Gibson, he didn't have a lot of chances to show his stuff in the postseason. He was dominant when he was tried, but due to the playoff structure of his era, he only even made the postseason twice. Koufax dominated the postseason the three times he was there. Schilling on the other hand was exposed to playoff baseball 5 times in his career and rose to the occasion every single time.

 

Gibson and Koufax were legendary pitchers, but Schilling's right up there with them as a postseason pitcher in my book, if only because he had so many more chances to fail, and didn't, even in his advanced years as a ballplayer he always got the job done in October, that's pretty legendary in its own right..

[notin]

So does this make Schilling's postseason numbers more impressive?

 

Schilling was an extremely impressive post-season pitcher. But is he the standard all pitchers need to be held up to?

[notin]

No knock on Gibson, he didn't have a lot of chances to show his stuff in the postseason. He was dominant when he was tried, but due to the playoff structure of his era, he only even made the postseason twice. Koufax dominated the postseason the three times he was there. Schilling on the other hand was exposed to playoff baseball 5 times in his career and rose to the occasion every single time.

 

Gibson and Koufax were legendary pitchers, but Schilling's right up there with them as a postseason pitcher in my book, if only because he had so many more chances to fail, and didn't, even in his advanced years as a ballplayer he always got the job done in October, that's pretty legendary in its own right..

 

To be fair about the postseason legacies for Gibson and Koufax, there was only one round of playoffs for the bulk of their careers...

[OH FOY]

So it made the Season Starts more important. You had to win it all.

[Dojji]

To be fair about the postseason legacies for Gibson and Koufax, there was only one round of playoffs for the bulk of their careers...

 

Exactly. Gibson and Koufax were legends, and it wasn't their fault that the postseason sample is so small, it's just a different baseball era where the regular season meant a lot more than it does today, and postseason statistics mattered a great deal less.

[Bellhorn04]

For me Bob Gibson. He beat the Yanks Powerhouse as a Rookie, dominated the Sox, and had a hell of a Series against Detroit. Koufax up there too.

 

Gibson's postseason log is a thing of beauty all right.

 

3 World Series - 9 games - 81 innings!

 

(One of those was 8 innings and one was 10.)

[notin]

Exactly. Gibson and Koufax were legends, and it wasn't their fault that the postseason sample is so small, it's just a different baseball era where the regular season meant a lot more than it does today, and postseason statistics mathtered a great deal less.

 

A couple ways to look at it.

 

They had at most 3 games per year, and it is easier to be effective 1-3 times than 6 or 7, especially against postseason teams.

 

On the other hand, if they were tired or injured that year, a couple bad performances become magnified in that small sample size...

[notin]

Gibson's postseason log is a thing of beauty all right.

 

3 World Series - 9 games - 81 innings!

 

(One of those was 8 innings and one was 10.)

 

As great as that is, the specialization in today’s game ensures no one will ever come close to that, but that shouldn’t be held against today’s pitchers...

[moonslav59]

So, who should the Sox trade for?

 

I'm leaning towards Gibson or Koufax.

[mvp 78]

So, who should the Sox trade for?

 

I'm leaning towards Gibson or Koufax.

 

Gibson. That intimidation would be great for the rotation.

[Jack Flap]

So, who should the Sox trade for?

 

I'm leaning towards Gibson or Koufax.

 

Beeks, Chavis, Dalbec, and Mata for Koufax, DO IT NOW, DD!

[Dojji]

All jokes aside, looking at the roster, I'm still very much in favor of LeMahieu

 

To the Colorado Rockies

 

Sam Travis (they need a 1B, and we have Ockimey ready to move up behind Travis)

 

Mike Shawaryn (low ceiling high floor prospect, no more than a depth starter here, but might crack Colorado's weak rotation in the next year or two)

 

Tzu-Wei Lin, to replace the hole in their infield with a competent cost-controlled stop-gap

 

To the Red Sox

 

DJ LeMahieu

 

Thoughts?

Edited July 13, 2018 by Dojji