June 11 - Red Sox @ Orioles

[Jack Flap]

A win is a win, but it probably shouldn't have taken 12 innings (and required a near-perfect effort from Wright and the 'pen) to grind one out against the Machado-less Orioles. Need to get this offense humming again.

[Maxbialystock]

A win is a win, but it probably shouldn't have taken 12 innings (and required a near-perfect effort from Wright and the 'pen) to grind one out against the Machado-less Orioles. Need to get this offense humming again.

 

Sox have a winning record without Betts and he is having just as good a year as Machado.

 

I prefer to look at the bright side. JDM and Mookie are both back in the lineup, and we know this team can hit and score runs--2d most runs scored in MLB and second highest OPS. At the same time the rotation right now is looking awfully good to me, and the bullpen too.

 

Sox history tells us that need good hitting to win, but they also need good pitching. Heck, I even like the defense right now.

[jad]

Sox have a winning record without Betts and he is having just as good a year as Machado.

 

I prefer to look at the bright side. JDM and Mookie are both back in the lineup, and we know this team can hit and score runs--2d most runs scored in MLB and second highest OPS. At the same time the rotation right now is looking awfully good to me, and the bullpen too.

 

Sox history tells us that need good hitting to win, but they also need good pitching. Heck, I even like the defense right now.

 

Agree entirely. The only disappointment I have is with JBJ. I don't mind a streaky .240 hitter (as long as he can field). But a streaky .180 hitter--that's a different story. There's nothing he can do in the field to make up for that.

[moonslav59]

Agree entirely. The only disappointment I have is with JBJ. I don't mind a streaky .240 hitter (as long as he can field). But a streaky .180 hitter--that's a different story. There's nothing he can do in the field to make up for that.

 

A streaky .240 hitter often goes 2+ months at .180.

 

That's been JBJ's M.O. During every cold stretch of his career, I've heard the same thing, and yet for the last 3-4 years, he's come through with a hot streak that brings his overall numbers to respectability or even better for 2 years (over .830).

 

I'm not sure why so many people seem to feel there is zero chance he has a hot snap this season.

 

He had a .384 OPS on August 5th, 2015. he was over 1.000 by September 7th before settling in at .832.

 

In 2016, his hot streak came earlier, but he was at .599 on 4/18 before going over .900 from May 9th to August 5th before falling back to .835.

 

in 2017, he had 3 moths under .600. They were spread out. He had 3 OPS months over .770. he was at .537 on May 14th (basically a month earlier than now). He got his OPS up to .860 on July 4th, then leveled out between .750 and .770 before ending at an acceptable .726 season OPS.

 

I'm not going to predict .800 or .725 this year, but I'm feeling like not expecting a hot streak at some point is probably the wrong outlook.

[kenmeister]

A streaky .240 hitter often goes 2+ months at .180.

 

That's been JBJ's M.O. During every cold stretch of his career, I've heard the same thing, and yet for the last 3-4 years, he's come through with a hot streak that brings his overall numbers to respectability or even better for 2 years (over .830).

 

I'm not sure why so many people seem to feel there is zero chance he has a hot snap this season.

 

He had a .384 OPS on August 5th, 2015. he was over 1.000 by September 7th before settling in at .832.

 

In 2016, his hot streak came earlier, but he was at .599 on 4/18 before going over .900 from May 9th to August 5th before falling back to .835.

 

in 2017, he had 3 moths under .600. They were spread out. He had 3 OPS months over .770. he was at .537 on May 14th (basically a month earlier than now). He got his OPS up to .860 on July 4th, then leveled out between .750 and .770 before ending at an acceptable .726 season OPS.

 

I'm not going to predict .800 or .725 this year, but I'm feeling like not expecting a hot streak at some point is probably the wrong outlook.

 

It's mid June already. At what point if it hasn't happened do you lose hope? Mid-July? Mid-August?

[moonslav59]

It's mid June already. At what point if it hasn't happened do you lose hope? Mid-July? Mid-August?

 

I'm not projecting anything, but I do still think the odds favor JBj having a hot streak at some point.

 

It looked like he was about to a little while ago, but then he went back to horrific.

 

If it wasn't for all the HBPs, he'd be on the bench already.

 

It's not like I enjoy watching him struggle. I hope everyday he begins a hot streak. I'm not sure how long the leash should be. Maybe another 2-4 weeks?

 

We also need Pedey to return to free up Nunez or Holt for the OF, because I don't want JD being a FT OF'er due to benching JBJ.

[Slasher9]

It's mid June already. At what point if it hasn't happened do you lose hope? Mid-July? Mid-August?

 

in the offseason. that's when i would lose hope. until then...keep on locking down CF..... the occasional sac fly is gray V.

[kenmeister]

I'm not projecting anything, but I do still think the odds favor JBj having a hot streak at some point.

 

It looked like he was about to a little while ago, but then he went back to horrific.

 

If it wasn't for all the HBPs, he'd be on the bench already.

 

It's not like I enjoy watching him struggle. I hope everyday he begins a hot streak. I'm not sure how long the leash should be. Maybe another 2-4 weeks?

 

We also need Pedey to return to free up Nunez or Holt for the OF, because I don't want JD being a FT OF'er due to benching JBJ.

 

I wonder if any team ever has tolerated a center fielder hitting below .200 with enough at-bats to qualify beyond the All-Star break.

 

Pedey - I hope he comes back ... but I think he might have reached the end.

[S5Dewey]

I wonder if any team ever has tolerated a center fielder hitting below .200 with enough at-bats to qualify beyond the All-Star break.

 

I don't know the answer to your question, but to be a fair comparison one would have to compare two CF's with GG ability + the low BA.

 

I understand the frustration with what we see every day offensively but there's a certain amount of ignoring his defense that's going on. Last night for example, both OB & Jerry were amazed at the play when JBJ went back on the ball, got turned around, then found the ball in the air and still made the play. That play saved a double and the game was tied after 9.

 

Did it save the game? Who knows? But it saved a double which is often just a single from scoring the winning run in that situation. Plus he drove in a pad run in the 12th.

[vegasbob]

It's mid June already. At what point if it hasn't happened do you lose hope? Mid-July? Mid-August?

 

I would say if jackie has not gotten hot by mid-October , it will be getting late. Here's my take : he's had hitting coaching for multi-years now, and from a variety of sources. He had from mid Feb to late March to reinforce that training, then April, May and half of June to do something with it. Of course, he may get hot but it would be due to leprechaun luck not applying himself consistently to a functional swing, opposite field hitting and for s***'s sake the ability to lay down a bunt , either sacrificing or for a leg hit.

 

No, he will rollover and ground out to the overshift right side or better yet flail over top of a low inside breaking ball. This has been true for the last 3 years, with the intermittent streaks that disguised his fundamental bad habits. That said, no other team is going to do you a favor and trade for him this year. Box him up over the winter and get someone who can play right field, and hit .245-.265 all season long, letting Mookie go to center, or switch to a LF'er and put AB in center.

 

Meanwhile, JBj, do us a favor and get hot for a month to help this team. The Sac fly last night was appreciated and very welcome

[Kimmi]

I repeat my previous prediction; at some point one of Jones/Davis/Trumbo/Mancini is going to run into one to win it for the Birds.

 

I had that feeling as well, especially once the Os got into a walk off situation.

 

Thank goodness for our pen. They have really done a good job.

[FredLynn]

I had that feeling as well, especially once the Os got into a walk off situation.

 

Thank goodness for our pen. They have really done a good job.

 

They are, as of today, second in ERA below Houston-by just .01 RPG

[Kimmi]

When Koji used to close, you'd go to the fridge to get a cold one and when you got back to the game the inning was over.

 

Absolutely. 'No Drama' Koji. I loved it.

[Kimmi]

They are, as of today, second in ERA below Houston-by just .01 RPG

 

And Cora seems to be doing a great job with his use of relievers.

[vegasbob]

Kimbrel=Nasty.

 

23 pitches to close it, allowing a walk, while striking out 3 guys. Interesting approach to giving the fans their money's worth. All Sox relievers use a lot of pitches but have an pretty fair record and low ERA's.

[moonslav59]

I wonder if any team ever has tolerated a center fielder hitting below .200 with enough at-bats to qualify beyond the All-Star break.

 

Pedey - I hope he comes back ... but I think he might have reached the end.

 

I searched 2009-2017 OF'ers with 250+ PAs (about half of the PAs needed to qualify. There were these many players having seasons with these OPS or lower:

 

40 below .600

 

100 below .640

 

140 below .640

 

.200 below .675

 

 

How about 350+ PAs?

 

25 below .620

 

60 below .655

 

104 below .675

 

I'd say yes, teams have given many OF'ers longer chances than JBJ, and my guess is many aren't GG caliber. Then again, JBJ has had several long bad stretches over his career.