The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[cp176]

Hahaha. I didn’t. Or did I??.!,!

 

if you did you sure as hell shouldn't have.

 

For the record, I like Kimbrel - you probably couldn't have figured that out. He is exactly the type of player that any winning team and program needs. Whether he comes back or not really is no big deal to me, I just like teasing those who know everything just a little. it is what I do. off i go - I need my beauty sleep!!!

[Larry Cook]

if you did you sure as hell shouldn't have.

 

For the record, I like Kimbrel - you probably couldn't have figured that out. He is exactly the type of player that any winning team and program needs. Whether he comes back or not really is no big deal to me, I just like teasing those who know everything just a little. it is what I do. off i go - I need my beauty sleep!!!

 

Give Kimbrel a qualifying offer and let the chips fall where they may.

 

Let the Yankees sign pomeranz and let joe Kelly learn to speak Japanese next season.

[cp176]

That's our only option.

 

But I would put the chances of "Kimbrel takes less money to stay in Boston" on the list labeled "Pipe Dreams" long before I put it in the list of "Likely Outcomes".

 

Right now, the 5yr/$100 mill is just some media speculation that can probably be found with a Google search here and there. But it isn't unreasonable given the recent contracts I have cited. It's probably not what the exact figure will be, but it's probably not far off, either. But what is your take on what you think Kimbrel is going to sign for? What do you think it will take to keep him in Boston?

 

i'll answer this honestly and i will even try to be serious. I'm not sure what he winds up getting but I would be quite surprised if he gets offered more than 3 years from the Sox. maybe 20 per maybe not. if he gets a better offer, obviously he is likely to fly. This team will miss not only his tremendous talent but also his mental approach to the game. when he has had his tough runs we all have bitched a bit and even suggested that his end is coming but in a situation where you need one man to get one out with the game on the line I think that there is no one better. he represents the current standard when you are talking about that one special reeliever these days. if he is not with us next year it will be a shame but I have a lot of faith in dombrowski and I think that he will do the right thing for this team going forward.

[cp176]

Give Kimbrel a qualifying offer and let the chips fall where they may.

 

Let the Yankees sign pomeranz and let joe Kelly learn to speak Japanese next season.

 

 

that is a plan larry!

[notin]

i'll answer this honestly and i will even try to be serious. I'm not sure what he winds up getting but I would be quite surprised if he gets offered more than 3 years from the Sox. maybe 20 per maybe not. if he gets a better offer, obviously he is likely to fly. This team will miss not only his tremendous talent but also his mental approach to the game. when he has had his tough runs we all have bitched a bit and even suggested that his end is coming but in a situation where you need one man to get one out with the game on the line I think that there is no one better. he represents the current standard when you are talking about that one special deliver these days. if he is not with us next year it will be a shame but I have a lot of faith in dombrowski and I think that he will do the right thing for this team going forward.

 

It's certainly possible the Sox limit an offer to three years, maybe even for $20mill. I'd be surprised if that was the best offer he received. And I agree, he goes for the best offer, regardless of where it's from.

 

Dombrowski will absolutely make an attempt to sign him, and might even make the best offer. But if that best offer is in the neighborhood of all the speculation, I think the ramifications going forward could be very negative for the future of the Sox. This team has a young and deadly core, and that core should be kept intact as long as possible. And if that means letting an occasional older and pricier talented player leave via free agency, then it needs to happen.

 

I think re-signing Sale after 2019 would be a mistake, too, especially after he started having injuriy issues this year (although they were probably not as bad as his limited playing time might make one think. There was definitely some coddling involved.) But if you think Kimbrel is going to be tough to replace, what about Sale?

[notin]

Hey now! I believe myself! I think....

Seriously- how many more blown saves would an average closer have than kimbrel had this season? 3? 5? Even if it’s 8 we still win the division. Kimbrel has had 0 influence on our outcome this season (regular). If he is 2007 papelbon this offseason then he gets a couple more million per on his next contract from not the Sox....

 

Former Braves closer Mark Wohlers was once asked "what's the difference between a good closer and a bad closer?" His immediate reply - "Three blown saves."

[cp176]

It's certainly possible the Sox limit an offer to three years, maybe even for $20mill. I'd be surprised if that was the best offer he received. And I agree, he goes for the best offer, regardless of where it's from.

 

Dombrowski will absolutely make an attempt to sign him, and might even make the best offer. But if that best offer is in the neighborhood of all the speculation, I think the ramifications going forward could be very negative for the future of the Sox. This team has a young and deadly core, and that core should be kept intact as long as possible. And if that means letting an occasional older and pricier talented player leave via free agency, then it needs to happen.

 

I think re-signing Sale after 2019 would be a mistake, too, especially after he started having injuriy issues this year (although they were probably not as bad as his limited playing time might make one think. There was definitely some coddling involved.) But if you think Kimbrel is going to be tough to replace, what about Sale?

 

i agree with respect to Kimbrel not sure about that sale thing just yet though. I will also add that even though it borders on blasphemy here in this land of everything can be measured, that for the most part most teams (possibly all) pretty much figure that it is game over when the red bearded wonder starts to warm up. i'll admit to having a soft spot for him as well as not being very tolerant of his critics. With what he and his family have gone through and with what he brings to the table nightly, there is no team in baseball that would not profit from having him on their roster.

[notin]

i agree with respect to Kimbrel not sure about that sale thing just yet though. I will also add that even though it borders on blasphemy here in this land of everything can be measured, that for the most part most teams (possibly all) pretty much figure that it is game over when the red bearded wonder starts to warm up. i'll admit to having a soft spot for him as well as not being very tolerant of his critics. With what he and his family have gone through and with what he brings to the table nightly, there is no team in baseball that would not profit from having him on their roster.

 

I'm not a critic of his. He's a terrific pitcher.

 

My thoughts on the subject are simple - extend/retain Betts, Benintendi and Bogaerts as the core to build around. (And to a lesser extent, Bradley.) Re-signing some of the players to the mega-deals they will command (like Kimbrel and Sale) will make that more difficult if not impossible.

 

So when it comes to Kimbrel, there will be a time when we as fans can thank him for what he has done and wish him well in his next role. And enjoy that full page Boston Globe ad he will take out to say goodbye...

[moonslav59]

I'm not a critic of his. He's a terrific pitcher.

 

My thoughts on the subject are simple - extend/retain Betts, Benintendi and Bogaerts as the core to build around. (And to a lesser extent, Bradley.) Re-signing some of the players to the mega-deals they will command (like Kimbrel and Sale) will make that more difficult if not impossible.

 

So when it comes to Kimbrel, there will be a time when we as fans can thank him for what he has done and wish him well in his next role. And enjoy that full page Boston Globe ad he will take out to say goodbye...

 

Well said.

 

Keeping the killer B's should be top priority.

[Bellhorn04]

And really, as Slasher pointyed out - how necessary is Kimbrel? The Sox have won 107 games and are 10 up on second place. Where would they be without Kimbrel? Maybe 7 games up? He isn't the difference in the division here.

 

Seriously- how many more blown saves would an average closer have than kimbrel had this season? 3? 5? Even if it’s 8 we still win the division. Kimbrel has had 0 influence on our outcome this season (regular).

 

Guys, guys...this is a bogus argument.

 

We might have won the division without J. D. Martinez too.

[Bellhorn04]

We might have won the division without Bogaerts, or Bradley...in fact we might have won without either of them! No need to worry about keeping those guys around. This is quite a relief actually...

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Guys, guys...this is a bogus argument.

 

We might have won the division without J. D. Martinez too.

 

Agreed

[notin]

Guys, guys...this is a bogus argument.

 

We might have won the division without J. D. Martinez too.

 

Well we can either discuss the future or the post-season roster. There isn't much else going on right now...

[Slasher9]

Guys, guys...this is a bogus argument.

 

We might have won the division without J. D. Martinez too.

 

to me...and this is just me.....my opinion....an All Star/MVP caliber "everyday" player has waaaaaaaaaaay more impact over the course of a season than a "lights out" closer does. again...just my opinion.

also....i believe in lineup protection so to me....and again...just me....JDM is a YUUUUUUUUGE reason why we win the division this year. a year the MFY might very well finish with 100 wins....

[notin]

to me...and this is just me.....my opinion....an All Star/MVP caliber "everyday" player has waaaaaaaaaaay more impact over the course of a season than a "lights out" closer does. again...just my opinion.

also....i believe in lineup protection so to me....and again...just me....JDM is a YUUUUUUUUGE reason why we win the division this year. a year the MFY might very well finish with 100 wins....

 

Not only the Yankees having 100 wins and finishing a distant second, but Tampa could win more games than AL Central champion Cleveland and no one has even mentioned the Rays as a post-season contender all year, and with good reason...

[Bellhorn04]

to me...and this is just me.....my opinion....an All Star/MVP caliber "everyday" player has waaaaaaaaaaay more impact over the course of a season than a "lights out" closer does. again...just my opinion.

 

I thought you subscribed to the idea that Rivera was a big difference-maker for those Yankee teams.

[moonslav59]

to me...and this is just me.....my opinion....an All Star/MVP caliber "everyday" player has waaaaaaaaaaay more impact over the course of a season than a "lights out" closer does. again...just my opinion.....

 

Agreed, but also look at these numbers:

 

PAs against

801 Porcello

699 Price

595 Sale

534 ERod

420 Johnson

361 Velazquez

331 Pomeranz

 

278 Kelly

255 Barnes

252 Hembree

 

239 Kimbrel

 

Yes, I do think the PAs Kimbrel pitched to were mostly high leverage and "more important" than many of the PAs other pitchers faced, but not to the point where Kimbrel's 239 PAs against is worth the $20M Porcello gets for going 801.

 

I get that one could argue Porcello is overpaid, but Kimbrel will end up with less than a third of the PAs against as a starter who goes 33 starts and 5+ IP each start on average.

 

[mvp 78]

to me...and this is just me.....my opinion....an All Star/MVP caliber "everyday" player has waaaaaaaaaaay more impact over the course of a season than a "lights out" closer does. again...just my opinion.

also....i believe in lineup protection so to me....and again...just me....JDM is a YUUUUUUUUGE reason why we win the division this year. a year the MFY might very well finish with 100 wins....

 

Please do not adopt "NaticktoNC"'s posting style.

[oldtimer]

Agreed, but also look at these numbers:

 

PAs against

801 Porcello

699 Price

595 Sale

534 ERod

420 Johnson

361 Velazquez

331 Pomeranz

 

278 Kelly

255 Barnes

252 Hembree

 

239 Kimbrel

 

Yes, I do think the PAs Kimbrel pitched to were mostly high leverage and "more important" than many of the PAs other pitchers faced, but not to the point where Kimbrel's 239 PAs against is worth the $20M Porcello gets for going 801.

 

I get that one could argue Porcello is overpaid, but Kimbrel will end up with less than a third of the PAs against as a starter who goes 33 starts and 5+ IP each start on average.

 

 

I agree totally with this line of thinking. Kimbrel has been an extremely effective closer for us and should be paid as a top of the line closer. Porcello has been an effective starter for us and an innning eater. You can argue whether he is worth over $20 mil per, but the basic concept of starters being worth more than closers makes sense. I think management should have a strategy that is based on some sort of a pyramid pay scheme which fits under the Luxury tax Limit, where starters are higher up on the pyramid than any relievers, even closers.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, but also look at these numbers:

 

PAs against

801 Porcello

239 Kimbrel

 

Yes, I do think the PAs Kimbrel pitched to were mostly high leverage and "more important" than many of the PAs other pitchers faced, but not to the point where Kimbrel's 239 PAs against is worth the $20M Porcello gets for going 801.

 

I get that one could argue Porcello is overpaid, but Kimbrel will end up with less than a third of the PAs against as a starter who goes 33 starts and 5+ IP each start on average.

 

 

Leverage breakdown by PA:

 

Porcello

H 130

M 360

L 311

 

Kimbrel

H 136

M 43

L 60

 

Kimbrel actually has more high leverage PA's.

 

Another factor is that Kimbrel's ERA is about half of Porcello's, and has been over their careers.

 

I do agree that Kimbrel would be overpaid at $20M, I'm just not sure by how much.

[moonslav59]

Leverage breakdown by PA:

 

Porcello

H 130

M 360

L 311

 

Kimbrel

H 136

M 43

L 60

 

Kimbrel actually has more high leverage PA's.

 

Another factor is that Kimbrel's ERA is about half of Porcello's, and has been over their careers.

 

I do agree that Kimbrel would be overpaid at $20M, I'm just not sure by how much.

 

It's not just about high leverage PAs against, and I mentioned high leverage is Kimbrel's favor.

 

It's not like Porcello's 671 non high leverage PAs against are meaningless. Some of Kimbrel's high leverage PAs were a result of Porcello getting us to Kimbrel for the save.

 

542 more tot al PAs against has to be woth a hell of a lot more than 6 more high leverage PAs from Kimbrel.

 

(Note: I actually thought Kimbrel would have a bigger lead than 6 PAs.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

It's not just about high leverage PAs against, and I mentioned high leverage is Kimbrel's favor.

 

It's not like Porcello's 671 non high leverage PAs against are meaningless. Some of Kimbrel's high leverage PAs were a result of Porcello getting us to Kimbrel for the save.

 

542 more tot al PAs against has to be woth a hell of a lot more than 6 more high leverage PAs from Kimbrel.

 

(Note: I actually thought Kimbrel would have a bigger lead than 6 PAs.)

 

 

You totally bypassed the point about the quality of the innings (Kimbrel having an ERA that's twice as good.)

 

Also worth noting is that 'high leverage' probably should be broken down even further if you want to do a really accurate analysis. Within 'high leverage' would be PA's that are higher leverage than others.

[Bellhorn04]

fWAR

Porcello 2.7

Kimbrel 1.6

 

bWAR

Porcello 2.9 *

Kimbrel 2.8

 

*Includes 0.2 offensive WAR

[dgalehouse]

Kimbrel is arguably top ten in all time closers. For some reason , some people just don't like him. Although they don't flat out say it , it is apparent when you read the comments. Go figure.

[notin]

Kimbrel is arguably top ten in all time closers. For some reason , some people just don't like him. Although they don't flat out say it , it is apparent when you read the comments. Go figure.

 

Not wanting to have him back through his early 30s as the highest paid closer in MLB history is not the same as not liking him. It just means the Sox have other players I would prefer they retained instead.

 

I think Chris Sale, if he can stay healthy, is on the fast track to Cooperstown and will be far more difficult to replace than Kimbrel, but I think the Sox would be smart to let him go when his contract (and all options) finally expires, too. Of course, a big part of that is my doubts he can stay healthy...

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel is arguably top ten in all time closers. For some reason , some people just don't like him. Although they don't flat out say it , it is apparent when you read the comments. Go figure.

 

I love Kimbrel.

 

Free, free, set him free.

[moonslav59]

You totally bypassed the point about the quality of the innings (Kimbrel having an ERA that's twice as good.)

 

Also worth noting is that 'high leverage' probably should be broken down even further if you want to do a really accurate analysis. Within 'high leverage' would be PA's that are higher leverage than others.

 

1) RP'er ERA is not a good way to judge, although Kimbrel does usually start innings with no outs.

 

2) I didn't bypass the point. We all know Kimbrel has better numbers than Porcello, but do you really think it outweighs the massive PA against differential?

 

3) I could say, "You totally bypassed IP'd," but I won't.

[Bellhorn04]

1) RP'er ERA is not a good way to judge, although Kimbrel does usually start innings with no outs.

 

2) I didn't bypass the point. We all know Kimbrel has better numbers than Porcello, but do you really think it outweighs the massive PA against differential?

 

3) I could say, "You totally bypassed IP'd," but I won't.

 

I'm not bypassing IP. It's a given that starters pitch about 3 times as many innings as relievers.

 

The question is how much do the other factors make up the difference in innings.

 

Maybe the WAR numbers are the only way to compare.

 

Then again,

 

bWAR loves Kimbrel more than fWAR does.

 

fWAR loves Porcello more than bWAR does.

Edited September 26, 2018 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

I look at it this way.

 

By the end of the 2020 season, the following key players will all have reached free agency:

 

Kimbrel

Bogaerts

Sale

Porcello

Betts

Martinez (if he opts out)

Bradley

 

Given that David Price isn't going anywhere and every one of these players except maybe Bradley is likely to command over $20mill per season, some in great excess of that amount, the Sox are not likely to be able to keep them all.

 

And while they do spend a lot of money, they are probaby not going to tie up over $100mill in 4 players (counting Price), leaving maybe another $100mill for the other 21 roster spots. If they do spend heavy and keep too many of these players, it will be difficult to impossible to keep Benintendi and/or Devers, assuming Devers shows he is worth keeping. We may not know their limit, but they absolutely do have one.

 

Maybe they can retain 2 of those players and hope Martinez doesn't opt out. If that is the case, what two would you keep?

[moonslav59]

I'm not bypassing IP. It's a given that starters pitch about 3 times as many innings as relievers.

 

The question is how much do the other factors make up the difference in innings.

 

Maybe the WAR numbers are the only way to compare.

 

Then again,

 

bWAR loves Kimbrel more than fWAR does.

 

fWAR loves Porcello more than bWAR does.

 

You didn't mention IP, just like I didn't mention quality of innings pitched. My point was neither bypassed anything, just because we didn't mention it.