The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[Slasher9]

Play-offs 3 things, Pitching #1, Defense, and timely hitting. The old simple way works for me.

 

100%

pitching = parades

[Bellhorn04]

Play-offs 3 things, Pitching #1, Defense, and timely hitting. The old simple way works for me.

 

Yep. My order would be:

 

1. Pitching

2. Timely hitting

3. Defense

[moonslav59]

It's baseball. If you get to the postseason, you can win the whole thing. If you are FAVORED to win it all, it is more likely than not you will lose. You obviously want to maximize every shot you get because - as the 1975 Sox showed - stuff is flimsy. The Red Sox will always have a high payroll - and fans should demand no less given what they have to pay. The worst case we'll probably get is a season where you come into it with an uncomfortable amount of "maybes". You get seasons like 2012 and 2014 when the maybes don't hit. You get a season like 2013 when they do.

 

When I read fears of a cliff, I read fear of becoming the 2010 Astros or the 1998 Marlins. That is not happening. There WILL be years where the Red Sox will be more impacted by stuff going right or wrong. I cite 2014 or 2015 as examples - teams that were relying on some risks to go well (in those years those risks did not go well).

 

I don't think any of us cliff dwellers ever said we'd lose 90-100+ games in 2020 or 2021.

 

Although we were predicted to do much better in 2011, 2012 and 2014, once could view those years as a cliff (in hindsight). I don't because we were supposed to be pretty good going into those seasons.

 

If I had to guess, right now, what our win totals might be starting in 2020, I might go something like this:

 

90 in 2020 (I have always maintained the "cliff" starts in 2021.)

86 in 2021

84 in 2022

 

Hopefully, we tun it around by 2023.

[sk7326]

I don't think any of us cliff dwellers ever said we'd lose 90-100+ games in 2020 or 2021.

 

Although we were predicted to do much better in 2011, 2012 and 2014, once could view those years as a cliff (in hindsight). I don't because we were supposed to be pretty good going into those seasons.

 

If I had to guess, right now, what our win totals might be starting in 2020, I might go something like this:

 

90 in 2020 (I have always maintained the "cliff" starts in 2021.)

86 in 2021

84 in 2022

 

Hopefully, we tun it around by 2023.

 

I look at cliff years as the sort of thing where your range of likely outcomes is something like 75-95 wins. That is a very large range, but reflective of the "maybes" a team would face. Again, the 2014ish Yankees is a good comp.

[moonslav59]

I look at cliff years as the sort of thing where your range of likely outcomes is something like 75-95 wins. That is a very large range, but reflective of the "maybes" a team would face. Again, the 2014ish Yankees is a good comp.

 

I can agree with that, and I'd put the 2021 and 2022 teams in a most likely 75-90 range.

 

Of course things can change, but I don't see the significant improvement in our farm that I think we need to see, starting real soon.

[dgalehouse]

I think teams like the Sox and Yanks have the wherewithal to avoid going over the edge of any cliff. No need to worry.

[OH FOY]

Since AS Break Sox have a dozen blown saves, most in the Majors. - Sean McAdam

Ticking Time Bomb, or just something that happens. Who knows, but its a trend as a Sox Fan has me concerned.

Good thing we got a big lead, when I read this.

Edited September 19, 2018 by OH FOY!

[cp176]

I'm not sure that I am totally in favor of giving a boatload of cash to Mr. Kimbrel but watching the current bullpen antics makes wonder if we really should sign the guy. He comes the closest to a sure thing that we have out there. bullpens in general seem to be unpredictable and just lining them up and taking your chances isn't necessarily the way to go. It is good to have at least one guy out there that you can kind of count on as opposed to just throwing them out there and hoping they get it done.

[oldtimer]

I'm not sure that I am totally in favor of giving a boatload of cash to Mr. Kimbrel but watching the current bullpen antics makes wonder if we really should sign the guy. He comes the closest to a sure thing that we have out there. bullpens in general seem to be unpredictable and just lining them up and taking your chances isn't necessarily the way to go. It is good to have at least one guy out there that you can kind of count on as opposed to just throwing them out there and hoping they get it done.

 

Kelly again proved to not be able to get people out. All the bad outings rule against guys trying to make the PO roster.

 

Kimbrel will be very hard for us to sign next year. Giving a closer a long term contract at big buck would bite us in the end.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kelly again proved to not be able to get people out. All the bad outings rule against guys trying to make the PO roster.

 

Kimbrel will be very hard for us to sign next year. Giving a closer a long term contract at big buck would bite us in the end.

 

It will bite you in the end, but not signing him will kill you next year. Your team requires a lock down relief ace. Outside of Kimbrel, you don’t have one

[moonslav59]

We can win without Kimbrel by using the $18-20M he'd cost plus some more to sign 3-4 decent RP'ers.

 

We have a solid core and are losing a lot of dead salary- HRam, Pom & Kelly. We should have enough to sign a decent closer and a couple solid set-up men. We'll be fine next year, with or without Kimbrel.

 

Do I want a lock down closer?

 

Of course. It's not that simple though, and there's no guarantee Kimbrel will remain "lock down."

[iortiz]

We can win without Kimbrel by using the $18-20M he'd cost plus some more to sign 3-4 decent RP'ers.

 

We have a solid core and are losing a lot of dead salary- HRam, Pom & Kelly. We should have enough to sign a decent closer and a couple solid set-up men. We'll be fine next year, with or without Kimbrel.

 

Do I want a lock down closer?

 

Of course. It's not that simple though, and there's no guarantee Kimbrel will remain "lock down."

In my very humble opinion, I wouldn’t pay Kimbrel. IMHO he won’t be what he used to be moving forward.

[Maxbialystock]

We can win without Kimbrel by using the $18-20M he'd cost plus some more to sign 3-4 decent RP'ers.

 

We have a solid core and are losing a lot of dead salary- HRam, Pom & Kelly. We should have enough to sign a decent closer and a couple solid set-up men. We'll be fine next year, with or without Kimbrel.

 

Do I want a lock down closer?

 

Of course. It's not that simple though, and there's no guarantee Kimbrel will remain "lock down."

 

Agree. Keeping Kimbrel guarantees nothing when your starters go 5 or 6 innings.

[oldtimer]

We can win without Kimbrel by using the $18-20M he'd cost plus some more to sign 3-4 decent RP'ers.

 

We have a solid core and are losing a lot of dead salary- HRam, Pom & Kelly. We should have enough to sign a decent closer and a couple solid set-up men. We'll be fine next year, with or without Kimbrel.

 

Do I want a lock down closer?

 

Of course. It's not that simple though, and there's no guarantee Kimbrel will remain "lock down."

 

And that's a key point. Paying big bucks on a long term contract basis assumes things will go along in future years as they have in the past. In fact, as players age, there is at least a gradual drop off and with pitchers it can be more pronounced and sudden.

 

We will be losing dead salary next year and also the following year when at least Pablo and Porcello's salarys expire. Of course we will have to replace players at the market rate or develop some younger players to balance the salary structure. I am confident that DD will do a good job of finding suitable players if we can't sign guys who become overpriced.

[jacksonianmarch]

Good relievers signed for $10 mil AAV last year. You can have Kimbrel or two good career setup men.

[cp176]

We can win without Kimbrel by using the $18-20M he'd cost plus some more to sign 3-4 decent RP'ers.

 

We have a solid core and are losing a lot of dead salary- HRam, Pom & Kelly. We should have enough to sign a decent closer and a couple solid set-up men. We'll be fine next year, with or without Kimbrel.

 

Do I want a lock down closer?

 

Of course. It's not that simple though, and there's no guarantee Kimbrel will remain "lock down."

 

Like I said - there are absolutely no guarantees with signing relief pitchers. I'm not a strong advocate for spending big money on an extended Kimbrel signing but if having at least one arm in the bullpen that you can at least sort of count on - particularly at the back end of it -doesn't at least make a person pause then oh well. We might be able to win without having someone like Kimbrel out there but on the other hand our bullpen might look worse than it does right now. It is very debatable as to whether or not we would be fine next year without a closer like Kimbrel next year. Not signing him is a gamble. Signing 3 or 4 good relievers (whoever they might be) might work out and then again it might not. Much like JD Martinez, I think that Kimbrel has played a huge role with respect to this team's current success. I for one would never accept the blanket statement that we would be just fine without having either one of these two guys. I understand (for the record) that you did not mention JD here but it has been suggested here that we would have produced as well without him. That to me is similar to suggesting that we would be as successful next year by just taking a chance with others as opposed to keeping Kimbrel. I like Kimbrel but if he is not resigned my bet would be that it won't be because John Henry has decided to get frugal all of a sudden.

[cp176]

Agree. Keeping Kimbrel guarantees nothing when your starters go 5 or 6 innings.

 

 

Are there any real guarantees? Isn't it at least a little comforting to know that you have at least one fairly dependable arm at the back end of the rotation?

[cp176]

In my very humble opinion, I wouldn’t pay Kimbrel. IMHO he won’t be what he used to be moving forward.

 

 

I actually agree with you about Kimbrel possibly seeing a little decline. It's a good bet. He has been so good for so long. It is a tough situation for JH to be facing. Letting the one dependable arm that you have out there won't be easy. This decision could go either way.

[cp176]

Kelly again proved to not be able to get people out. All the bad outings rule against guys trying to make the PO roster.

 

Kimbrel will be very hard for us to sign next year. Giving a closer a long term contract at big buck would bite us in the end.

 

 

I agree with you but assuming that by signing a whole bunch of guys who we think might get the job done could very likely hurt us badly. If he walks, it would be a huge gamble moving forward for us.

[Bellhorn04]

I will guess that DD makes a serious offer to Kimbrel right away, and if Craig doesn't take it, DD pivots in another direction for relief pitching right away.

[harmony]

What would it take to land Ty Buttrey?

[Station 13]

What would it take to land Ty Buttrey?

 

Mookie Betts

 

or DD first born

[jacksonianmarch]

You can’t get a “bunch of guys” for the money you’ll keep from letting Kimbrel walk. Well, I guess you could get a bunch of guys off the scrap heap, but I digress.

 

You can go after a reliable guy with good but not great production. That was Brian Shaw before he imploded in Colorado. He got $9 mil AAV. Then you have Brandon Morrow, a flamed out starter with a log injury history but a real solid season as a shut down set up man. He got $10.5 mil and will miss the playoffs. The contracts given out to this point have all been disasters minus the one Miller got from NY.

[jacksonianmarch]

What would it take to land Ty Buttrey?

 

He has certainly taken advantage of his opportunity, hasn't he? If he ends up closing in Anaheim, the deal they swung for Kinsler could be quite the kick in the pants

[moonslav59]

I agree with you but assuming that by signing a whole bunch of guys who we think might get the job done could very likely hurt us badly. If he walks, it would be a huge gamble moving forward for us.

 

Yes, but I'm not talking about signing 5 guys at $3M each. I'm talking about 3 guys at $6-10M each or 4 guys at $5-7M each. Those shouldn't be bums. I'm not advocating a closer by committee.

[Slasher9]

Are there any real guarantees? Isn't it at least a little comforting to know that you have at least one fairly dependable arm at the back end of the rotation?

 

what are you willing to give Kimbrel to stay?

[Station 13]

Yes, but I'm not talking about signing 5 guys at $3M each. I'm talking about 3 guys at $6-10M each or 4 guys at $5-7M each. Those shouldn't be bums. I'm not advocating a closer by committee.

 

Who are the relievers heading to FAs? Kimbrel needs a bridge to get to, otherwise we would be paying him a ton to sit around.

[moonslav59]

Who are the relievers heading to FAs? Kimbrel needs a bridge to get to, otherwise we would be paying him a ton to sit around.

 

Cody Allen is having an "off year" and might be signed to less than he's worth, or he might sign a one year deal to try and go for broke the following winter.

 

Here's the list cots has....

 

Relief Pitchers

Cody Allen

Brad Brach

Zach Britton

Carter Capps

Santiago Casilla

Randall Delgado

Jake Diekman

Sean Doolittle

Jeurys Familia

Casey Fien

Kelvin Herrera

J.P. Howell

Daniel Hudson

Jared Hughes

Jim Johnson

Nate Jones *

Shawn Kelley

Joe Kelly

Ryan Madsen

Zack McAllister

Mark Melancon *

Andrew Miller

Adam Ottavino

David Phelps

A.J. Ramos

David Robertson

Hector Rondon

Trevor Rosenthal

Robbie Ross

Marc Rzepczynski

Tanner Scheppers

Tony Sipp

Joakim Soria

Junichi Tazawa

Shawn Tolleson

Carlos Torres

Adam Warren

Justin Wilson

Blake Wood

Travis Wood *

Brad Ziegler

Edited September 20, 2018 by moonslav59

[OH FOY]

Sox Bullpen has a 6.95 ERA against the Yankees this season. - Sean McAdam.

[Station 13]

Cody Allen is having an "off year" and might be signed to less than he's worth, or he might sign a one year deal to try and go for broke the following winter.

 

The spikes in HR + walks and decrease strikeout, a hard pass here.