The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[Slasher9]

To clarify that, if you have a payroll for tax purposes of say 250 million a couple of years in a row, every incremental dollar of salary will actually cost you $1.95. 50% tax plus a 45% surcharge.

 

agreed. there is a limit. owners of professional sports teams do not become owners of professional teams by giving $$ away. these guys have obscenely bloated bank accounts for a reason. they are smart businessmen for a reason....

[Slasher9]

Bogey is not above average on defense.

 

He's dead last in DRS and middle of the pack on UZR/150.

 

its a well known fact that the guy tasked with watching every single play to give UZR lost his luggage years ago on a trip to Aruba. X paying that price....

[sk7326]

I think the question is what does cliff mean - and I think that's where my head is at. If we are thinking CLIFF as in turning into the 2018 Kansas City Royals - that ain't happening, and the franchise won't let that happen. (it might, but they will go into the season trying to avoid that) If we think of it as the Yankees CLIFF, where things bottomed out at 84 wins, and you at least had 3-4 months of a credible playoff chase - THAT is what I'd expect as a worst case.

[moonslav59]

its a well known fact that the guy tasked with watching every single play to give UZR lost his luggage years ago on a trip to Aruba. X paying that price....

 

So what happened to the DRS guy, then?

 

2016-2018 UZR/150

42 SS with 1000+ innings

Bogey is #21 at -0.2 (exactly middle)

 

2016-2018 DRS

Bogey is #42 at -38 (The next guy is -22 and the leader is +71)

 

Move the sample size to 1500 innings (35 qualify)

 

Bogey ranks 18th in UZR/150 (again, about the middle)

He's 15th out of 25 with 2000+ innings and 12th out of 18 with 2500+.

 

I watch every play of every game, and I'm a huge fan of defense, particularly SS defense. I do not see Bogey as being above average. I have not seen any improvement over the years, either.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the question is what does cliff mean - and I think that's where my head is at. If we are thinking CLIFF as in turning into the 2018 Kansas City Royals - that ain't happening, and the franchise won't let that happen. (it might, but they will go into the season trying to avoid that) If we think of it as the Yankees CLIFF, where things bottomed out at 84 wins, and you at least had 3-4 months of a credible playoff chase - THAT is what I'd expect as a worst case.

 

Take a look at every team DD has left and that's the kind of cliff he leaves. He won the title in Florida, but the cost was too high for Huizenga and he burnt it to the ground. In Detroit, he built it up then propped it up as long as he could before it fell down. Now it is scorched earth and will be for years. DD doesn't leave space for mediocrity. He will either burn it all down or build it up as high as it can go.

[sk7326]

Take a look at every team DD has left and that's the kind of cliff he leaves. He won the title in Florida, but the cost was too high for Huizenga and he burnt it to the ground. In Detroit, he built it up then propped it up as long as he could before it fell down. Now it is scorched earth and will be for years. DD doesn't leave space for mediocrity. He will either burn it all down or build it up as high as it can go.

 

He will do what ownership wants ... he built systems in Montreal and Miami. Huizenga burned to the ground - and then the players Dombrowski brought into the system won another World Series. Detroit he was doing was Ilitch wanted. If Henry wants this to be more sustainable, it will happen. Dombrowski has done it both ways.

[sk7326]

agreed. there is a limit. owners of professional sports teams do not become owners of professional teams by giving $$ away. these guys have obscenely bloated bank accounts for a reason. they are smart businessmen for a reason....

 

Owners of professional sports team buy them not just as businesses, but the way someone buys a piece of art or a rare album. It's a toy and marker of being megarich. And the rules in each sport make it nearly impossible to lose money.

[Maxbialystock]

So what happened to the DRS guy, then?

 

2016-2018 UZR/150

42 SS with 1000+ innings

Bogey is #21 at -0.2 (exactly middle)

 

2016-2018 DRS

Bogey is #42 at -38 (The next guy is -22 and the leader is +71)

 

Move the sample size to 1500 innings (35 qualify)

 

Bogey ranks 18th in UZR/150 (again, about the middle)

He's 15th out of 25 with 2000+ innings and 12th out of 18 with 2500+.

 

I watch every play of every game, and I'm a huge fan of defense, particularly SS defense. I do not see Bogey as being above average. I have not seen any improvement over the years, either.

 

 

Fewer errors, perhaps?

[jacksonianmarch]

He will do what ownership wants ... he built systems in Montreal and Miami. Huizenga burned to the ground - and then the players Dombrowski brought into the system won another World Series. Detroit he was doing was Ilitch wanted. If Henry wants this to be more sustainable, it will happen. Dombrowski has done it both ways.

 

He definitely did what Ilitch wanted, but he is coming into Boston fresh off that experience doing the exact same thing he did there. He was brought in to win now and he did that. But he's left a farm in shambles and a cliff looming. The question becomes, does he get enough cash to keep the band together, or will he be forced to pick and choose? If he is forced to pick and choose, he might burn it down to rebuild it rather than stay in mediocrity while the Yankees rise meteorically

[Slasher9]

Owners of professional sports team buy them not just as businesses, but the way someone buys a piece of art or a rare album. It's a toy and marker of being megarich. And the rules in each sport make it nearly impossible to lose money.

 

every $1 that goes to "tax" implications is a $1 that is not going into "owners" bank account. when has it ever mattered to the 1% that they don't "lose" money? these guys need to acquire every last cent on the planet earth. otherwise every MLB owner would have $500MM payroll. aint happening. it goes against every fiber of their being.......

[Maxbialystock]

Let's put it this way, can he adequately defend a premium defensive position or is he a liability? I think all the numbers come together to show a positive defensive WAR, which portends to above replacement level ability. Maybe that is below average, maybe it isn't, but I do think his agent and the league see Bogey as at least an adequate defender at SS. He will have a leg up on Machado in that regard. Machado wants to be a SS, but his defensive metrics as a SS are bad (-8 UZR/150). Machado is about to be paid handsomely, likely setting a record for an infielder. Bogaerts will be able to show he's a better defender. Also, the age difference for FA wont be extreme either as Machado is older than Bogey, and by the time his first game of his new contract is played, Bogey will be 9 months older than Machado will be next year. The other interesting thing is Bogey's OPS would have been Machado's career high coming into this season, so it isn't like he cant swing it. Manny is just going nuclear in his contract year, which is great for him. Ultimately, I think the similarities will be there and I expect Bogey to get close to what Manny gets

 

Pretty much agree with all. Bogey is a decent SS and, with his hitting ramping up, likely to get Machado money when the time comes.

 

And, frankly, I consider that frightening because I think Boras, et al, have made the prices for players astronomical. MLBPA also ensures that all the money is good no matter how bad the player performs or is injured or whatever. The apprenticeship system, which I assume the owners like, ensures that almost all high value contracts occur late enough in a player's career to ensure there will be a good amount of risk. The Yankees can't be happy with Ellsbury--but mind it less when they look at HanRam and Sandoval. And so on with other teams.

[moonslav59]

Fewer errors, perhaps?

 

The best thing about Bogey's defense is that he does not make a lot of errors.

 

He makes routine plays.

 

The best SSs make routine plays AND ones Bogey does not get to.

[moonslav59]

every $1 that goes to "tax" implications is a $1 that is not going into "owners" bank account. when has it ever mattered to the 1% that they don't "lose" money? these guys need to acquire every last cent on the planet earth. otherwise every MLB owner would have $500MM payroll. aint happening. it goes against every fiber of their being.......

 

Yes.

 

Most of these mega-millionaires made money by pinching pennies not just dollars.

 

Asking or expecting Henry to change his philosophy is wishful thinking.

 

I fee we are lucky he decides to go $40M over this year and pay a huge tax.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes.

 

Most of these mega-millionaires made money by pinching pennies not just dollars.

 

Asking or expecting Henry to change his philosophy is wishful thinking.

 

I fee we are lucky he decides to go $40M over this year and pay a huge tax.

 

Hell yes, we're lucky with Henry. He's been the dream owner.

[mvp 78]

Yes.

 

Most of these mega-millionaires made money by pinching pennies not just dollars.

 

Asking or expecting Henry to change his philosophy is wishful thinking.

 

I fee we are lucky he decides to go $40M over this year and pay a huge tax.

 

The problem is that you don't become a sports owner to make money. Also, Henry didn't make his money "pinching pennies." The Sox are a play thing, a luxury item that Henry has had no qualms paying above his comfort level before (he didn't want Crawford, but still wrote the check).

[Bellhorn04]

The problem is that you don't become a sports owner to make money. Also, Henry didn't make his money "pinching pennies." The Sox are a play thing, a luxury item that Henry has had no qualms paying above his comfort level before (he didn't want Crawford, but still wrote the check).

 

But the fact is he has made huge money, especially in the market value appreciation. You don't think that was part of the appeal too? The goals of making money and having a pretty cool toy are not mutually exclusive.

 

And he has also pretty clearly tended to use the luxury tax threshold as an approximate payroll cap.

[moonslav59]

The problem is that you don't become a sports owner to make money. Also, Henry didn't make his money "pinching pennies." The Sox are a play thing, a luxury item that Henry has had no qualms paying above his comfort level before (he didn't want Crawford, but still wrote the check).

 

You'd be surprised how gaining a penny on thousands of shares of stock can turn to millions when you do it over and over again.

[moonslav59]

The problem is that you don't become a sports owner to make money. Also, Henry didn't make his money "pinching pennies." The Sox are a play thing, a luxury item that Henry has had no qualms paying above his comfort level before (he didn't want Crawford, but still wrote the check).

 

True, but you don't forget your impulses, and you probably take pride in not hearing you "bought championships" like the said about the Yanks for decades.

 

I seriously doubt it is Henry's intention to be the biggest spender year after year.

 

I have no evidence to support my belief, but this is the first year he's gone way over the limit, and he sees our window is now.

[sk7326]

He definitely did what Ilitch wanted, but he is coming into Boston fresh off that experience doing the exact same thing he did there. He was brought in to win now and he did that. But he's left a farm in shambles and a cliff looming. The question becomes, does he get enough cash to keep the band together, or will he be forced to pick and choose? If he is forced to pick and choose, he might burn it down to rebuild it rather than stay in mediocrity while the Yankees rise meteorically

 

But did he? I mean - he traded a bunch of prospects ... but how many were future starters? He promoted the hell out of the guys he identified as stars. Most of the Red Sox premium quality are on the major league roster. The ebb and flow of a farm system is inevitable. The Cubs are facing the same thing. You do your best to try to replace them, but a constant supply of Top 100 prospects is both incredibly unlikely - but in some senses kind of inefficient.

[notin]

But did he? I mean - he traded a bunch of prospects ... but how many were future starters? He promoted the hell out of the guys he identified as stars. Most of the Red Sox premium quality are on the major league roster. The ebb and flow of a farm system is inevitable. The Cubs are facing the same thing. You do your best to try to replace them, but a constant supply of Top 100 prospects is both incredibly unlikely - but in some senses kind of inefficient.

 

Why phrase that in the past tense like it's already a foregone conclusion?

 

Are the career paths for Margot, Moncada, Guerra, Kopech, Dubon, and Espinoza already at their peak or something? Are any of those players even 24 yet?

 

Margot is like 9 months older than Dalbec, who is still in AA and yet some fans are excited about his potential...

Edited September 17, 2018 by notin

[sk7326]

Why phrase that in the past tense like it's already a foregone conclusion?

 

Are the career paths for Margot, Moncada, Guerra, Kopech, Dubon, and Espinoza already at their peak or something? Are any of those players even 24 yet?

 

Margot is like 9 months older than Dalbec, who is still in AA and yet some fans are excited about his potential...

 

Here is the thing - "we don't know the future" describes every trade, signing, hell every second of day to day life. But you have your best guess based on the information you have - whether it be your scouting, or general suspicions about pitcher outcomes. Espinoza has missed almost 2 full seasons, Kopech is going to miss 2019, Margot is 24 - but he was blocked in Boston. So he goes somewhere where there was a job opening.

[moonslav59]

I keep hearing Margot was blocked.

 

We drafted Beni in June of 2015 and traded Margot in November of 2015.

 

I wasn't aware Beni had been penciled into LF at the time of the trade.

 

We also went and signed Chris Young in December of 2015. That was after the Margot trade.

 

BTW, who played LF the most in 2016?

 

Innings

479 Holt

446 Young

232 Beni

143 Brentz

114 Swihart

 

Nah, we had no room for Margot.... NOT!

 

 

 

 

[notin]

Here is the thing - "we don't know the future" describes every trade, signing, hell every second of day to day life. But you have your best guess based on the information you have - whether it be your scouting, or general suspicions about pitcher outcomes. Espinoza has missed almost 2 full seasons, Kopech is going to miss 2019, Margot is 24 - but he was blocked in Boston. So he goes somewhere where there was a job opening.

 

We throw around the “blocked prospect” thing too quickly. Really, who was blocking Margot on Boston? Benintendi, from a level behind? Bradley? Certainly, and while I love Bradley, he’s not irreplaceable. Margot hasn’t hit like Bradley has yet, but then JBJ certainly required patience for that to happen.

 

And I’ve seen people call Javier Guerra and Logan Allen “blocked prospects.” How can an A-ball player be blocked?

 

But really, the bottom line is we gave up a lot of prospects and too often I see fans justifying it with “but how many are starters?” Or “how many turned out to be any good?” Like we weeded out the failures here.

 

The truth is, we probably gave up several good players. Not sure why anyone wants to admit that. Why are people so afraid to say we gave up good prospects? Or we might have given up good prospects?

[sk7326]

I keep hearing Margot was blocked.

 

We drafted Beni in June of 2015 and traded Margot in November of 2015.

 

I wasn't aware Beni had been penciled into LF at the time of the trade.

 

We also went and signed Chris Young in December of 2015. That was after the Margot trade.

 

BTW, who played LF the most in 2016?

 

Innings

479 Holt

446 Young

232 Beni

143 Brentz

114 Swihart

 

Nah, we had no room for Margot.... NOT!

 

 

 

 

 

Benintendi was Golden Spikes winner who had made a monumental leap in college in 2015, and then just obliterated low-A in his cup of coffee there. Management knew what they had - and traded Margot without qualms.

[notin]

Benintendi was Golden Spikes winner who had made a monumental leap in college in 2015, and then just obliterated low-A in his cup of coffee there. Management knew what they had - and traded Margot without qualms.

 

And they also valued Jackie Bradley’s 255 plate appearances from 2015 more than all the ones that came before it, right?

[Kimmi]

I too predict a 30 win dropoff in 2021

 

The cliff is real.

[Kimmi]

I don't think you guys value Kimbrel as fans as much as the sox do. And I agree with the sox. With how unreliable your pen has been, having a closer who is just flat out dominant is a great thing for you. You need him.

 

We don't need Kimbrel. We need a solid closer who will be as effective as Kimbrel. We can find one for cheaper.

[notin]

The cliff is real.

 

Best way to avoid it will be to retain the Killer Bs and not retain Sale and Kimbrel...

[notin]

We don't need Kimbrel. We need a solid closer who will be as effective as Kimbrel. We can find one for cheaper.

 

Besides, Kimbrel is going to stop being dominant at some point. And it will happen sometime during his next contract...

[Kimmi]

They can keep whoever they want to. If they only keep 1/2, it's because they didn't think it was good value to keep the other 1/2.

 

Of course they can keep whoever they want. They can sign whatever free agent they want to whatever contract they want. It's not realistic though, and they won't do it. There is a limit to how much Henry is willing to spend.

 

The fact that both the Yankees and the Dodgers were adamant about resetting their penalties this year speaks volumes.