The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread

[Dojji]

And if the pitcher did the right thing that is taught in high school and had run at Jackie instead of throwing to 3rd, Jackie's blunder would have been exposed. Nice slide be Jackie, but the post game analysis was that it was initially a bonehead play.

 

It was a good bit of improv though. Relievers are often rather poor at situational defense, since it doesn't come up very often for them, and JBJ did a great job of exposing Holder by faking back to third before making for the plate.

 

Besides, the throw to third is a pretty conventional play in this situation too, given the choice I'd rather have a third baseman attempt the kind of sprinting throws a rundown can require rather than a relief pitcher. if JBJ hadn't broken hard and fast for the plate and made one of the best slides I've seen in years, it would have worked too.

 

Although if he's going to throw it, he really needs to throw it home rather than to third. He was trying to set up a rundown and was fooled by the fake back to third by JBJ, but he really needs to be focused above all on keeping runs off the board. If he throws home, the best case scenario for us is JBJ getting safely back to third base.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Dojji

[Maxbialystock]

Cora actually said Jackie made a base running mistake but then made a great slide. He gave credit but did not gloss over the mistake.

 

Darn. I was going to say that--that it was a mistake made good. It wasn't just a great slide. He also made the decision to be aggressive and not just get into a rundown.

[cp176]

And if the pitcher did the right thing that is taught in high school and had run at Jackie instead of throwing to 3rd, Jackie's blunder would have been exposed. Nice slide be Jackie, but the post game analysis was that it was initially a bonehead play.

 

Absolutey correct! In Bradley's case, more often than not, players will go if the ball is on the ground. That is the way it works. Obviously when the ball is hit right back to the mound, you'd like to think that he would sit tight but in his defense that ball was a shot. Not a big time base running mistake there whether he makes it or not. His reaction to the pitcher's mistake in throwing the ball to third was made without hesitation. He turned that into a great play by doing more right things than wrong things.

[cp176]

Also with respect to the odd double play that Bogaerts was involved in the other night, he did exactly what young players are taught to do in a run down. That runner had to be forced back to third as opposed to being forced toward the plate. If Bogaerts had forced him toward home plate, he would have been making a mistake whether he got the out or not. He used his head - good for him.

[a700hitter]

It was a good bit of improv though. Relievers are often rather poor at situational defense, since it doesn't come up very often for them, and JBJ did a great job of exposing Holder by faking back to third before making for the plate.

 

Besides, the throw to third is a pretty conventional play in this situation too, given the choice I'd rather have a third baseman attempt the kind of sprinting throws a rundown can require rather than a relief pitcher. if JBJ hadn't broken hard and fast for the plate and made one of the best slides I've seen in years, it would have worked too.

 

Although if he's going to throw it, he really needs to throw it home rather than to third. He was trying to set up a rundown and was fooled by the fake back to third by JBJ, but he really needs to be focused above all on keeping runs off the board. If he throws home, the best case scenario for us is JBJ getting safely back to third base.

respectfully, when a guy is trapped off the lead base that badly, the correct play is for the pitcher to run toward him and force him to commit. I learned it the hard way in high school. After some coaching, I never made the mistake again. Holder panicked and forgot his coaching.

[Kimmi]

I get your point. It is a valid comment.

 

However, some of us see base running blunders that do not seem to be connected with just being aggressive.

 

An example is my Binky Blake in the game where E-rod was hurt.

 

That was just plain stupid base running.

 

The team is on a roll. Otherwise there would be more bitching about running into outs and being picked-off.

 

There are definitely base running outs that are boneheaded. I don't argue that.

 

My contention is, however, that most of the base running outs can be attributed to aggressiveness.

[Spudboy]

There are definitely base running outs that are boneheaded. I don't argue that.

 

My contention is, however, that most of the base running outs can be attributed to aggressiveness.

 

Probably.

[tombirner]

So now we found two things the immortal Jackie Bradley can do: get slightly better jumps on fly balls and make crafty slides.

[Bellhorn04]

So now we found two things the immortal Jackie Bradley can do: get slightly better jumps on fly balls and make crafty slides.

 

Man are you serious? He has made some incredible catches this year. There's a little more to it than 'slightly better jumps'.

[Kimmi]

Some quotes from Cora after last night's game:

 

"I know what I said," Cora said. "I know I feel about it, and now they know how I feel about it. I don't appreciate them throwing at Mookie Betts' head. If they felt an 0-2, backdoor sinker had intent, well the first pitch of the game went right at the head of the best player in baseball. There's intent. It is what it is. We won the game and we'll move on."

 

Cora was asked if the bad blood between the Yankees and the Red Sox could spill into Saturday at Fenway Park for Game 3 of the series.

 

"I don't know," he said. "We scored four runs in less than six innings. Is that a quality start?"

 

 

My man.

[tombirner]

Man are you serious? He has made some incredible catches this year. There's a little more to it than 'slightly better jumps'.

 

He is a good fielder, like pretty much all center fielders, and an awful hitter.

 

I will give you that we don't really have any better options.

[moonslav59]

He is a good fielder, like pretty much all center fielders, and an awful hitter.

 

I will give you that we don't really have any better options.

 

Awful hitter?

 

Streaky, yes, but awful, no.

 

He's got a 10.7 WAR over his last 461 games. That's about a 3.4 per 155 games.

 

He's got an 8.9 WAR since 2016 (6th among CF'ers). He's at 3.6 since the start of 2017 (12th ranked).

 

He has a .701 OPS since 2017 and the league average CF'er OPS this year is .720. Once could argue JBJ has been below average on offense since 2017, but I wouldn't say, "awful."

 

He's also been quietly putting together one of his longest stretches of decent offense dating back to May 12th. He's doing what everyone has wanted him to do- be consistent- for almost 3 months, and yet we still hear the bickering.

Edited August 4, 2018 by moonslav59

[tombirner]

Awful hitter?

 

Streaky, yes, but awful, no.

 

He's got a 10.7 WAR over his last 461 games. That's about a 3.4 per 155 games.

 

He's got an 8.9 WAR since 2016 (6th among CF'ers). He's at 3.6 since the start of 2017 (12th ranked).

 

He has a .701 OPS since 2017 and the league average CF'er OPS this year is .720. Once could argue JBJ has been below average on offense since 2017, but I wouldn't say, "awful."

 

He's also been quietly putting together one of his longest stretches of decent offense dating back to May 12th. He's doing what everyone has wanted him to do- be consistent- for almost 3 months, and yet we still hear the bickering.

 

He's hitting .214 with little power, is a career .235 hitter with little power, and yet still we hear people straining to convince us he's anything but an "awful" hitter.

 

For the record, I'm fine with the low salary and slightly better fielding -- our lineup can handle it -- but it's weird how some people can't seem to admit he's just not a good hitter.

[moonslav59]

He's hitting .214 with little power, is a career .235 hitter with little power, and yet still we hear people straining to convince us he's anything but an "awful" hitter.

 

For the record, I'm fine with the low salary and slightly better fielding -- our lineup can handle it -- but it's weird how some people can't seem to admit he's just not a good hitter.

 

I guess it's all about how we define "awful."

 

JBJ's career numbers are greatly affected by his horrific start to his career. I'm not holding him to those first 530 PAs over 2013 to 2014. I don't think that "straining," since I do the same for all hitters.

 

Yes, he's looked horrible for significant stretches since 2015. I'm not glossing that over or ignoring it, but the fact is, his numbers are not awful over his most recent 3 1/2 years. I don't think that's cherry-picking.

 

2015-2018

 

.293 54 297 (2400 PAs) Bogey (.350/.438/.788)

 

.247 61 234 (1800 PAs) JBJ (.330/.437/.766)

 

JBJ's .766 OPS ranks 96th out of 175 with 1500+ PAs since 2015. That's average not "awful".

 

Also, he's had about 20 HRs per 600 PAs- not bad power.

[royf19]

Awful hitter?

 

Streaky, yes, but awful, no.

 

He's got a 10.7 WAR over his last 461 games. That's about a 3.4 per 155 games.

 

He's got an 8.9 WAR since 2016 (6th among CF'ers). He's at 3.6 since the start of 2017 (12th ranked).

 

He has a .701 OPS since 2017 and the league average CF'er OPS this year is .720. Once could argue JBJ has been below average on offense since 2017, but I wouldn't say, "awful."

 

He's also been quietly putting together one of his longest stretches of decent offense dating back to May 12th. He's doing what everyone has wanted him to do- be consistent- for almost 3 months, and yet we still hear the bickering.

 

Moon,

I'm not a Bradley basher and I agree with most of what you posted here, but that "decent stretch of offense dating back to May 12" is tremendously misleading. Yes on May 12, his average was .167, which was his low point and he finished May strong, raising his average 33 points to .200 by June 1. However, he was lousy at the plate for most of June as his average dropped from .200 on June 1 to .178 on June 23, an 18-game stretch in which he batted just .119 (7 for 59) with a .469 OPS. However, I think he finally turned the corner. From June 24 to going into today's game, he batted .288 with an .878 OPS. That's closer to the player I think he can be, and hopefully keep it up the rest of the way.

[Slasher9]

Hey Cora.

I tried telling this to you earlier in the season. Do not..and I mean NOT..use kimbrel for anything but a 3 out save.

Thank you for your compliance.

[SoxHop]

Hey Cora.

I tried telling this to you earlier in the season. Do not..and I mean NOT..use kimbrel for anything but a 3 out save.

Thank you for your compliance.

 

It's like a thing now. You almost know the outcome. He needs a clean inning. If that dude could be counted on to come in and just close things down 4 or 5 outs he could go down as one of the greatest. But, we haven't seen that.

[Kimmi]

It's like a thing now. You almost know the outcome. He needs a clean inning. If that dude could be counted on to come in and just close things down 4 or 5 outs he could go down as one of the greatest. But, we haven't seen that.

 

Bill Koch

‏ @BillKoch25

9h9 hours ago

 

Bill Koch Retweeted Nick Friar

 

Kimbrel in 36 save situations -- .132/.222/.281, 3.92 K/BB

Kimbrel in 9 non-save situations -- .242/.359/.424, 2.17 K/BB

 

 

Odd. I could understand the difference if Kimbrel were coming into games that were blowouts as opposed to save situations, but really, how much difference is there between a 3 run lead and a 4 run lead?

[Bellhorn04]

Bill Koch

‏ @BillKoch25

9h9 hours ago

 

Bill Koch Retweeted Nick Friar

 

Kimbrel in 36 save situations -- .132/.222/.281, 3.92 K/BB

Kimbrel in 9 non-save situations -- .242/.359/.424, 2.17 K/BB

 

Odd. I could understand the difference if Kimbrel were coming into games that were blowouts as opposed to save situations, but really, how much difference is there between a 3 run lead and a 4 run lead?

 

Some things just get in a player's head. I'll bet Kimbrel is as puzzled about it as anyone. But I'll bet he was thinking about it when he took the mound last night.

[oldtimer]

I had to hit the hay last night due to an early softball game this morning and thought the Sox had about a 10% chance of winning facing a tough Yankee BP. Something like the meltdown which happened with Champman had to occur to givve us a chance and we were fortunate that it did. I went to bed thinking the decisions made or not made in the 7th had lost our opportunity to win.

 

Those decisions.

1. Cora might have shifted to our normal outfield to strengthen our defense (and probably weaken our offense) at the start of the 7th. The problem is that the Sox bench is pretty light right now with Renza, JBJ and the catcher. I can certainly understand Cora not making that decision.

 

2. Price was up in pitches and had been missing spots set up by Leon. It might have been reasonable to pull him at the start of the 7th but Cora decided to let him pitch to Gardner lefty on lefty. Garner got a hit that Mookie might have gotten to. Then Cora let him pitch to one more and that was in my opinion not the best idea with Price issuing a walk and putting the team in trouble with 2 on and none out.

 

3. Cora and the coaches went to Hembree. Relief pitchers generally have a couple of pitches they get get over and that are hard to hit. The situation which arose was on Hembree and what I saw as a lack of situational awareness. He had the bottom of the order up who wanted to bunt. The last things a relief pitcher wants to do in that case is balk, hit the batter, throw a wild pitch or lastly walk the batter. A bunt moves the runners but produces an out, much better than giving up the walk as the team can then walk the lead off batter and set up the double play. The worst thing happened when Bogaerts made an error on a double play ball following the walk but sometimes those things happen.

 

Amazingly after that mess the Sox were gifted the opportunity to get back in and win the game. It must be our year.

[moonslav59]

Moon,

I'm not a Bradley basher and I agree with most of what you posted here, but that "decent stretch of offense dating back to May 12" is tremendously misleading. Yes on May 12, his average was .167, which was his low point and he finished May strong, raising his average 33 points to .200 by June 1. However, he was lousy at the plate for most of June as his average dropped from .200 on June 1 to .178 on June 23, an 18-game stretch in which he batted just .119 (7 for 59) with a .469 OPS. However, I think he finally turned the corner. From June 24 to going into today's game, he batted .288 with an .878 OPS. That's closer to the player I think he can be, and hopefully keep it up the rest of the way.

 

He has been hitting a lot of hard outs since 5/12, so I'm counting the whole time afterwards as "turning it around."

 

Just keep like you're doing since 5/12 and nobody will complain.

[S5Dewey]

He has been hitting a lot of hard outs since 5/12, so I'm counting the whole time afterwards as "turning it around."

 

Just keep like you're doing since 5/12 and nobody will complain.

 

While I think my disdain for WAR has been pretty well documented here I do think that there are a lot of other advanced metrics that are useful. I'll confess that I'd never heard of BAPIP until Kimmie brought it up and I believe that Exit Velocity is something new this year. I believe those were the two metrics that Cora was thinking about when he kept saying that JBJ was on his way out of that horrendous slump in spite of the fact that JBJ's BA wasn't improving.

[moonslav59]

While I think my disdain for WAR has been pretty well documented here I do think that there are a lot of other advanced metrics that are useful. I'll confess that I'd never heard of BAPIP until Kimmie brought it up and I believe that Exit Velocity is something new this year. I believe those were the two metrics that Cora was thinking about when he kept saying that JBJ was on his way out of that horrendous slump in spite of the fact that JBJ's BA wasn't improving.

 

Exactly, and anyone who was closely watching the Sox would have seen it for themselves.

 

Here is the disconnect:

 

BAbip:

.371 JD

.349 Pearce

.349 Betts

.341 Beni

.311 Holt

.308 Moreland

.302 Bogey

.301 Swihart

.298 Nunez

.292 Devers

.283 HRam

.277 Leon

.270 JBJ

.240 Vaz

 

One would expect the next list to be in close to the same order:

 

Hard Hit%

48 JD

46 Betts

39 Bogey

39 JBJ

36 Moreland

35 Pearce

35 Devers

31 HRam

31 Leon

31 Swihart

29 Beni

27 Vaz

27 Holt

25 Nunez

 

or this one....

 

soft hit%

 

10% JD

10% JBJ

13 Betts

15 Pearce

15 Bogey

15 Beni

18 Vaz

20 Leon, Swihart & Devers

21 Holt

28 Nunez

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Or that he's hitting it hard, but other teams have scouted him well and he can't get figure out how to beat a shift.

[moonslav59]

Or that he's hitting it hard, but other teams have scouted him well and he can't get figure out how to beat a shift.

 

Yes, I meant to mention that. The shift has killed JBJ, and he has failed to adjust to that aspect of the game.

[Maxbialystock]

Yes, I meant to mention that. The shift has killed JBJ, and he has failed to adjust to that aspect of the game.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the primary reason why all teams now use shifts and use them often is precisely because the adjustment ain't that easy. If it were easy, teams would use the shifts less. I believe I am correct in saying that Ted Williams never really adjusted, and he was not only a great natural hitter, but a real student of the swing.

[dgalehouse]

In years past many , if not most , batting champions were left handed hitters. In fact , most of the all time great hitters were lefty. They had a natural advantage. The shifts of today have changed all that. They make it tougher on left hand hitters. Bradley seems to do better when they pitch him middle away. He can then use the whole field.

[Emp9]

Will we ever see MLB make most if not all these shifts illegal defense?

[Slasher9]

Will we ever see MLB make most if not all these shifts illegal defense?

 

i bet we do.

[dustcover]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the primary reason why all teams now use shifts and use them often is precisely because the adjustment ain't that easy. If it were easy, teams would use the shifts less. I believe I am correct in saying that Ted Williams never really adjusted, and he was not only a great natural hitter, but a real student of the swing.

 

Your off base with your observation. When Lou Boudreau initiated the first shift which became known as the 'Williams shift', Williams made it quite clear to anyone who would listen, sportswriters, teammates, and fans alike, that he was not going to change his style or manner of hitting. Time after time the situation would scream for a hit to the opposite field, but Teddy was stubborn to say the very least, and he was determined to do it his way and be damned with what anyone else thought. It was definitely not a case of him being unable to adjust, it was simply his refusal to willingly adjust.