A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[dannycater]

JBJR is to me the greatest defensive outfielder I've ever seen. Ever.

[dannycater]

Judge out hurts Yanks for sure, but I think if Sox can complete the sweep tonight, it would really put some pressure on the clubhouse and the NY Post/NY media brigade would start throwing out all kinds of things for disruption...Washington clubhouse stories are an all-time fiasco, true or false. Bottom line, Sox have gone through that a lot over the years and it's truly satisfying to see the hard Boston media simply realizing this '18 team is beyond fantastic. They will only come in for the kill if Sox don't perform in postseason (which is their job if that happens). I am enjoying this team, enjoying the winning, enjoying the camaraderie. Cora is so much better clubhouse guy than Farrell, who will always have the '13 title but had a lot of shortcomings that didn't help team overall since that glorious year. Of course, I'm of the opinion Francona never had to leave and was scapegoated when it happened. Cora is terrific, and frankly so is Dombroski. who has done a lot of the little things to keep the Sox depth in order.

[dannycater]

Rookie status? Jesus, tells you how little I've chatted in a Sox chat room. But I do chat a lot on Bruins board, more to bitch about there, although great year this past season. Similar themes. Cassidy changed the B's Julien system and Cora changed the Sox moneyball system. Both have made their respective teams not only explosive offensively but fun to watch. Entertainment wise, I don't know if you include the Pats (and even the Celtics), this 17-18 has been one of the best periods of time in Boston sports history in terms of entertaining and competitiveness. Even last year's Sox team was fun to watch.

[dannycater]

Julien and Farrell in their own ways had some similarities in how their communication with players slowly eroded. Both had world titles to their names. Both deserve appreciation for that. I'll take Cassidy and Cora though and enjoy the new times.

[d-money]

It has been a great season for sure but this team should be good enough to make an ALCS. It’s a matter of getting past that first round. Need that home field advantage.

[moonslav59]

Great article last night, in Boston Sports Journal by Sean McAdam, how Eovaldi loves Pitching to Leon. Headline says "It's like he's inside my Head at Times".

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/

 

Some people just look at BA, OPS or WAR, which is okay in some cases, but with catchers, handling the pitchers is often ignored or not prioritized highly enough. It's not just about pitch-calling, either. It's not just about pitch-framing and blocking WPs. To me, it's more about the comfort level a pitcher feels with certain catchers over others.

 

It's not something that can be captured in stats or metrics, and even CERA numbers can be deceiving or misused.

 

Leon helps out pitchers do better. Vazquez does, too- maybe to a lesser extent with several pitchers. For argument's sake, let's assume a great "pitcher handler" like Leon can shave a half a run off a pitcher's ERA. The guy could hit .100, and still be a huge plus to the team. Yet, we'd still hear a lot of bitching about "holes in the line-up" and "fat catchers dragging us down" from some.

 

I love our catchers and how they get the most out of our staff. Look at our pen: we have Kimbrel and a bunch of nobodies, yet we have had the second best RP'er WAR since 2017. People still call it our weakness. I have called it one of our "weakest areas," but that is only because we are so strong just about everywhere else.

 

It's nice to see Leon get some props.

[moonslav59]

It has been a great season for sure but this team should be good enough to make an ALCS. It’s a matter of getting past that first round. Need that home field advantage.

 

Plus, having the best record insures we face the play-in game winner who has presumably exhausted a start from one of their best starters.

[vegasbob]

Plus, having the best record insures we face the play-in game winner who has presumably exhausted a start from one of their best starters.

 

And, of course, sets up the high possibility of a NYY matchup with the Sox having home field. That would be another in a long line of epic series, say like 2004.

[dgalehouse]

The most obvious differences in this year's team are the home runs , stolen bases and the manager. Three things that the metrics devotees consider overrated.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Plus, having the best record insures we face the play-in game winner who has presumably exhausted a start from one of their best starters.

 

There really is no way the Red Sox can lose the division round when their opponent blows their best starter in the wild card game and the Red Sox have Sale, perhaps the best pitcher on planet, for two games. That's a series the Red Sox simply cannot lose. Sale would have to let them down, but if the Red Sox manage his innings, he should be strong for October. I would keep Sale on the DL for one more start.

 

The ALCS will be really tough, though. That might be the true World Series, as the two AL teams will likely be better than any of the NL teams.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The most obvious differences in this year's team are the home runs , stolen bases and the manager. Three things that the metrics devotees consider overrated.

 

I never understood why stolen bases never played with the sabermetric people. True, they don't like giving up outs, which is why they don't support bunting (Cora rarely bunts) but if you can turn singles into doubles with a stolen base, that would seem to be a pretty valuable thing from a statistical point of view. At some point, maybe the sabermetric people will come to appreciate the stolen base more than they currently do.

[moonslav59]

And, of course, sets up the high possibility of a NYY matchup with the Sox having home field. That would be another in a long line of epic series, say like 2004.

 

Bring 'em on!

 

The Yanks with Severino starting only game 3 of a 5 game series do not scare me.

[moonslav59]

I never understood why stolen bases never played with the sabermetric people. True, they don't like giving up outs, which is why they don't support bunting (Cora rarely bunts) but if you can turn singles into doubles with a stolen base, that would seem to be a pretty valuable thing from a statistical point of view. At some point, maybe the sabermetric people will come to appreciate the stolen base more than they currently do.

 

Our SB rate is above the line where SBs help more than the CS'ings hurt, but when you're only over the line by 10-15%, it's not a major impact.

 

What doesn't get mentioned in the metrics or data is how a threat runner on 1B bothers the pitcher and defenders to the point where the batter has a better chance of getting a hit. (I'm glad we don't hardly ever bunt.)

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The Yankees made a mistake when they didn't acquire G.Cole and didn't find another ace starter at the deadline, i.e., Degrom.

[moonslav59]

The Yankees made a mistake when they didn't acquire G.Cole and didn't find another ace starter at the deadline, i.e., Degrom.

 

Yes, and I wish we had gotten Cole, but I'm not sure we had what it took to get him, and things worked out well with Wright, Johnson, Velazquez and Eovaldi.

[dgalehouse]

And stolen bases are not figured into a player's OPS either. But they should be.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

And stolen bases are not figured into a player's OPS either. But they should be.

 

Interesting. But if a player is thrown out trying to steal, that out should also factor into OPS.

[S5Dewey]

Bring 'em on!

 

The Yanks with Severino starting only game 3 of a 5 game series do not scare me.

 

So the playoffs are still 5-7-7? Wasn't there some chatter last year about making all the playoff series 7 games?

[moonslav59]

So the playoffs are still 5-7-7? Wasn't there some chatter last year about making all the playoff series 7 games?

 

As far as I know, it's still 5 games.

 

There's a day off before the play-in WC game. Non WC teams get 3-4 days off before their first playoff game.

[S5Dewey]

Thanks

[Bellhorn04]

And stolen bases are not figured into a player's OPS either. But they should be.

 

Interesting. But if a player is thrown out trying to steal, that out should also factor into OPS.

 

All factored into WAR though.

[moonslav59]

All factored into WAR though.

 

Speaking of WAR we have 4 offensive players in the top 18:

 

3. Betts 6.5

8. JD M 4.3 (despite an -11.1 on defense)

12. Beni 3.7

18. Bogey 3.1

 

We have 3 in the top 22 pitching WAR leaders:

 

1. C Sale 5.6

15. Porcello 2.4

22. D Price 1.6

 

We have 2 in the top 9 RP'ers by WAR:

 

5. Barnes 1.6

9. Kimbrel 1.2

Edited August 5, 2018 by moonslav59

[Spudboy]

JBJR is to me the greatest defensive outfielder I've ever seen. Ever.

 

I take it that you never saw Mays, Yaz, Clemente, and Jr.

 

JBJ is outstanding. Probably the best defensive CF I have seen play for my team. But there have been many stellar defensive outfielders while I have been watching 52 years.

[OH FOY]

Paul Blair

Only one highlight, but man wish they had more. Guy was good even when he was up there in age, with the Yanks. Still played a shallow CF. Edited August 5, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

JBJ is the best defensive Sox CF'er I have ever seen.

 

Lynn was great. Rick Miller was, too. JBJ is the best, IMO.

 

Best ever on any team? I saw Paul Blair for a few years. He played very shallow and dared hitters to hit it past him. They rarely succeeded. He was probably the best I saw.

 

Evans and Betts in RF are the best I've seen there. Clemente was maybe better, but I didn't see him enough.

 

Yaz was great in LF, but I'm not sure he was the best ever.

 

 

 

[SoxHop]

Both Remy and Eck agreed that this was the best defensive outfield they have ever seen the Sox have. They mentioned Dewey and Lynn, but said they didn't have the speed this crew has. I defer to Remy and Eck

[Kimmi]

Exactly. The Yankees are closer to missing out on the WC entirely than they are to winning the division, especially if we can complete the sweep. They still have a tough west coast trip as well. Not counting them out of the ALE just yet, but if I were a Yankee fan I would be more worried about making the playoffs than winning the division now.

 

The problem is that both Seattle and Oakland would have to jump over the Yankees, and those two teams have 10 games remaining between them. Believe me, I would love to see it happen, but I don't think either team has it in them if the Yankees play decent ball.

[Kimmi]

I never understood why stolen bases never played with the sabermetric people. True, they don't like giving up outs, which is why they don't support bunting (Cora rarely bunts) but if you can turn singles into doubles with a stolen base, that would seem to be a pretty valuable thing from a statistical point of view. At some point, maybe the sabermetric people will come to appreciate the stolen base more than they currently do.

 

It's because outs are so important. In baseball, the out is the most precious commodity. Giving up an out via caught stealing takes away a lot of the value of the stolen base. The break even point varies from year to year, but it's typically somewhere around 70%. Someone who steals 2 out of 3 bases successfully is actually hurting his team.

[Kimmi]

What doesn't get mentioned in the metrics or data is how a threat runner on 1B bothers the pitcher and defenders to the point where the batter has a better chance of getting a hit. (I'm glad we don't hardly ever bunt.)

 

This has been dispelled as well.

 

A disruptive runner on first base has historically hurt the batter at the plate.

[Kimmi]

And stolen bases are not figured into a player's OPS either. But they should be.

 

No, but they are figured into other offensive stats, and WAR.

 

At any rate, I don't agree that they should be figured into OPS.