A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

I've not given up on Pom, yet, and I never feel like one game tells all.

 

If we are over the tax limit by %350K, all we need to do is trade Pom and get the team to pay $400K more than who we replace Pom on the roster.

 

Some team will take him at that rate.

 

I'd like to keep Holt & Nunez, too, but with Kinsler on board, Devers returning soo and Lin in AAA, I'm not sure that added depth is worth falling 10 slots in the draft. We can only have all of these guys on the roster in September anyways. Once the playoffs come, someone will be off the roster anyways.

 

Season to date, Pom has the worst WAR on the Sox pitching staff, -.5. But it's not the numbers that bother me nearly as much as what I see--a lefty with no changeup, a slow fast ball, a pretty good knuckle curve, not very good control, a lousy move to cover 1B on grounders to the right, and, sometimes, an obvious reluctance to actually make the next pitch.

[mvp 78]

Season to date, Pom has the worst WAR on the Sox pitching staff, -.5. But it's not the numbers that bother me nearly as much as what I see--a lefty with no changeup, a slow fast ball, a pretty good knuckle curve, not very good control, a lousy move to cover 1B on grounders to the right, and, sometimes, an obvious reluctance to actually make the next pitch.

 

That curve has looked good to you this year?

[Maxbialystock]

That curve has looked good to you this year?

 

Honestly, I can't be sure. I'm just prejudiced in favor of any pitch that breaks down and to the left or right. it is clearly Pom's best pitch, but one hitters can get used to and therefore hit, which is one reason why his going 6 innings doesn't happen often.

[vegasbob]

The ST roster crunch is back with addition of Kinsler and the pending returns of Devers and Vazquez at some points in August.

 

Lin went back to his permanent home in Pawtucket allowing Kinsler a locker. But take a look at the roster as it stands. There are no AAAA'ers left, now that Brasier has earned a spot in the BP .

 

My guess is that Vazquez is kept on the DL/rehab list all of August, until rosters expand. When Devers is ready to go, probably someone else goes on DL willingly or not. Drew Pomeranz is on stage tonight to try and avoid being DL'ed/DFA'ed for a waiver trade situation. If he pitches well, someone will have to go fo get Devers back. Would DD slow walk Rafael all the way to September also? If not who moves, someone with options ? Will Cora deviate from the 13 pitcher staff and go to 12 ?

 

And then you have to account for Ed Rodriguez as well. Looks like a busy September .

Edited July 31, 2018 by vegasbob

[vegasbob]

Pomeranz needs to be able to throw the ball harder than he has so far this year to make any secondary pitch effective. If his velocity is there, he has the ability to help any team. I think that he knows what is at stake tonight.

 

That doesn't bode well for a guy whose body language/expression seems to convey a lack of confidence. If he is sharp it is all the harder as to what to do with the extra bodies and that's before Rodriguez gets fully rehabb'ed.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The ST roster crunch is back with addition of Kinsler and the pending returns of Devers and Vazquez at some points in August.

 

Lin went back to his permanent home in Pawtucket allowing Kinsler a locker. But take a look at the roster as it stands. There are no AAAA'ers left, now that Brasier has earned a spot in the BP .

 

My guess is that Vazquez is kept on the DL/rehab list all of August, until rosters expand. When Devers is ready to go, probably someone else goes on DL willingly or not. Drew Pomeranz is on stage tonight to try and avoid being DL'ed/DFA'ed for a waiver trade situation. If he pitches well, someone will have to go fo get Devers back. Would DD slow walk Rafael all the way to September also? If not who moves, someone with options ? Will Cora deviate from the 13 pitcher staff and go to 12 ?

 

And then you have to account for Ed Rodriguez as well. Looks like a busy September .

 

Dombrowski has already said that the Red Sox will go back to 12 pitchers. Thus, when Devers returns, Brasier OR Velazquez could be sent down OR, alternatively, the Red Sox might release/put on DL Pomeranz.

 

Yep, C.Vazquez returns in September.

 

For me, the interesting question concerns the playoff roster. If everyone is healthy, who doesn't make the playoff roster? Holt and Pearce are locked in for two of the bench spots, but who will get the other two and who will start at catcher? One of the following 4 players won't be on the playoff roster: C.Vasquez -- S.Leon -- B.Swihart --E.Nunez.

Edited July 31, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[vegasbob]

Pomeranz needs to be able to throw the ball harder than he has so far this year to make any secondary pitch effective. If his velocity is there, he has the ability to help any team. I think that he knows what is at stake tonight.

 

That doesn't bode well for a guy whose body language/expression seems to convey a lack of confidence. If he is sharp it is all the harder as to what to do with the extra bodies and that's before Rodriguez gets fully rehabb'ed.

[moonslav59]

You are about the only guy who still has any confidence in Pomeranz. Personally, I think he is toast this year. He has never shown us anything that could help this club-and its nearly August. How much longer should we wait? If he cannot win convincingly tonight I would like to see him released-not go to the pen-released and free up a roster spot for someone who can actually help this club win a ring.

 

It's not like I'd bet on Pom turning it around, but isn't there a chance the reason he sucked earlier this year was due to an injury that was not noticed until later?

 

Couldn't the time off and rehab cause a turn around?

 

Hasn't he had great halves and poor halves in his career already?

 

I just try not to definitively judge anyone on short sample sizes, and to me, a half season is small for a SP'er who may have been pitching injured.

 

Pom proved he could pitch in 2016 and 2017. I'm not sure his one half of 2018 is the "real" Pom.

[moonslav59]

Season to date, Pom has the worst WAR on the Sox pitching staff, -.5. But it's not the numbers that bother me nearly as much as what I see--a lefty with no changeup, a slow fast ball, a pretty good knuckle curve, not very good control, a lousy move to cover 1B on grounders to the right, and, sometimes, an obvious reluctance to actually make the next pitch.

 

So was 2016 and 2017 total smoke and mirrors, or is it possible Pom can get back what he had then?

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Pom had more velocity. When he was able to change the eye level, the breaking ball was deadly. For a guy without top end velocity, he was able to pitch 4 seamer up and curve down and really baffle hitters. Now, he cannot go up with his garbage heater or he’ll get wrecked. He doesn’t have the fastball command to stay down in the zone and without the high low plane change, he just cannot put away hitters with regularity. He’s done as is. He needs to sign a low guarantee deal with a non contender in the offseason and see if he can pitch with his new found loss of power. He reminds me of Masterson. A two pitch starter who was able to dominate hitters with high end stuff. Once the stuff faded, he wasn’t good enough to locate and win

[oldtimer]

Pom had more velocity. When he was able to change the eye level, the breaking ball was deadly. For a guy without top end velocity, he was able to pitch 4 seamer up and curve down and really baffle hitters. Now, he cannot go up with his garbage heater or he’ll get wrecked. He doesn’t have the fastball command to stay down in the zone and without the high low plane change, he just cannot put away hitters with regularity. He’s done as is. He needs to sign a low guarantee deal with a non contender in the offseason and see if he can pitch with his new found loss of power. He reminds me of Masterson. A two pitch starter who was able to dominate hitters with high end stuff. Once the stuff faded, he wasn’t good enough to locate and win

 

He had major command issues last night although his velocity was slightly better than the first ttime back. He threw nearly 50% balls and hit a couple of guys. That won't work for him and us but it is still possible his command returns. He still really only hass two pitches, which isn't really enough for a starter these days.

[moonslav59]

He had major command issues last night although his velocity was slightly better than the first ttime back. He threw nearly 50% balls and hit a couple of guys. That won't work for him and us but it is still possible his command returns. He still really only hass two pitches, which isn't really enough for a starter these days.

 

Has baseball changed all that much in 1 year?

 

Last year, 2 pitch starters could do well, but now they can't?

 

If Pom regains his velocity and control, is he still doomed to fail out of a lack of a 3rd pitch?

[oldtimer]

Has baseball changed all that much in 1 year?

 

Last year, 2 pitch starters could do well, but now they can't?

 

If Pom regains his velocity and control, is he still doomed to fail out of a lack of a 3rd pitch?

 

Their command has to be better as the hitter can sit on one pitch. If a starter can rely on 3 or 4 pitches he has a better chance of fooling the hitter. Pretty obvious I would think.

[moonslav59]

Their command has to be better as the hitter can sit on one pitch. If a starter can rely on 3 or 4 pitches he has a better chance of fooling the hitter. Pretty obvious I would think.

 

Nobody is arguing that having 2 good pitches is better than 3 or 4, but my point is that if Pom can regain form with his two pitches, he can do very well again. Yes, two-pitch starters have a harder time when one is not working, but when both are working, Pom can be successful.

[mvp 78]

Pom's problem isn't the velocity. The FB velo is dipping, but so are the rest of his pitches. If they were all converging to the same speed, it'd be an issue.

 

His problem is that his curveball has been an absolute mess (-10 runs above average). It used to be one of his trademark pitches, but it's just not working right now as he can no longer locate it and is leaving it up in the zone. He's never generated much swing and miss on that pitch, so when he leaves it up it's getting hammered.

 

The BABIP on his fastball is only 211, for his curveball it's 469.

 

The sinker that he throws isn't great and generates a lot of fly balls so it isn't good enough for him to be a two pitch pitcher. He needs to figure out that curve. If he can't, he becomes a DFA candidate IMO.

 

It's like I post these things and no one reads them.

 

The velocity isn't the issue with Pom.

[Station 13]

It's like I post these things and no one reads them.

 

The velocity isn't the issue with Pom.

 

Velocity is useless with zero command, think Joe Kelly.

 

Pomeranz has terrible command of everything.

[Kimmi]

Cooler than Aaron Hicks?

 

LOL

 

The Yankees have Gardner. 'Nuff said.

[Kimmi]

Btw, the Sox finally eclipsed the Astros today in Run Differential. They are +178 and the Astros are +177.

 

Something I read this morning:

 

Tony Massarotti

‏Verified account @TonyMassarotti

2h2 hours ago

 

Red Sox vs playoff contenders on their schedule - NYY, Sea, Oak, Hou, Phi and Atl: 15-16, .484 pct, +9 run diff.

 

Red Sox vs all else: 60-18, .769 pct, +167 run diff.

 

They have not played Cleveland yet.

 

Take from that what you will.

 

IMO, it means we have the other playoff contenders right where we want them.

[Kimmi]

The ST roster crunch is back with addition of Kinsler and the pending returns of Devers and Vazquez at some points in August.

 

Lin went back to his permanent home in Pawtucket allowing Kinsler a locker. But take a look at the roster as it stands. There are no AAAA'ers left, now that Brasier has earned a spot in the BP .

 

My guess is that Vazquez is kept on the DL/rehab list all of August, until rosters expand. When Devers is ready to go, probably someone else goes on DL willingly or not. Drew Pomeranz is on stage tonight to try and avoid being DL'ed/DFA'ed for a waiver trade situation. If he pitches well, someone will have to go fo get Devers back. Would DD slow walk Rafael all the way to September also? If not who moves, someone with options ? Will Cora deviate from the 13 pitcher staff and go to 12 ?

 

And then you have to account for Ed Rodriguez as well. Looks like a busy September .

 

Dombrowski said that once Devers returns, they will go with a 12 man pitching staff.

 

The question is, who gets the boot out of the bullpen?

[Kimmi]

Today is the day that both Lind and Phillips can opt out of their minor league deals if they choose.

 

I have not heard anything about either's decision yet.

[Spudboy]

Today is the day that both Lind and Phillips can opt out of their minor league deals if they choose.

 

I have not heard anything about either's decision yet.

 

This is an appropriate moment to just say meh.

[dgalehouse]

Dombrowski said that once Devers returns, they will go with a 12 man pitching staff.

 

The question is, who gets the boot out of the bullpen?

 

I think the best move would be to option Velazquez to Pawtucket. He could stay sharp and be available for recall in case of an injury . If all goes well , he is back when rosters expand , at the latest. [ A DL for Pomeranz would eliminate the need for this.]

[Kimmi]

This is an appropriate moment to just say meh.

 

Pretty much. I always like to have the depth, and I would have liked to see what Phillips could do, but with the acquisition of Kinsler I think it becomes moot.

 

On a side note, has anyone noticed the increased use of the word 'meh' since Soxhop's rant about it? LOL

[Kimmi]

I think the best move would be to option Velazquez to Pawtucket. He could stay sharp and be available for recall in case of an injury . If all goes well , he is back when rosters expand , at the latest. [ A DL for Pomeranz would eliminate the need for this.]

 

With Johnson now in the rotation along with Pom (depending on the length of Sale's DL), I really like Velazquez in the pen. If not for the need for someone who can give us multiple innings, I would agree.

[Spudboy]

Pretty much. I always like to have the depth, and I would have liked to see what Phillips could do, but with the acquisition of Kinsler I think it becomes moot.

 

On a side note, has anyone noticed the increased use of the word 'meh' since Soxhop's rant about it? LOL

 

I agree with you that the signing of both Lind and Phillips were good "depth" moves.

 

Now with Pearce and Kinsler on board both the depth signings are of no significance.

 

But they could have been.

[Spudboy]

With Johnson now in the rotation along with Pom (depending on the length of Sale's DL), I really like Velazquez in the pen. If not for the need for someone who can give us multiple innings, I would agree.

 

Again, I agree.

 

Velazquez can provide multiple innings and spot starts ( good for no more than 5 1/3 innings ).

 

I was happy DD found him wasting away in Mexico last year. I said at the beginning of this year that Velazquez would likely be a key part on this team in 2018.

 

So far he has been.

[Kimmi]

I agree with you that the signing of both Lind and Phillips were good "depth" moves.

 

Now with Pearce and Kinsler on board both the depth signings are of no significance.

 

But they could have been.

 

Again, I agree.

 

Velazquez can provide multiple innings and spot starts ( good for no more than 5 1/3 innings ).

 

I was happy DD found him wasting away in Mexico last year. I said at the beginning of this year that Velazquez would likely be a key part on this team in 2018.

 

So far he has been.

 

We tend to agree on quite a lot.

 

Anything that's not advanced stat related.

[vegasbob]

Dombrowski said that once Devers returns, they will go with a 12 man pitching staff.

 

The question is, who gets the boot out of the bullpen?

 

I think that Workman is the one on the yoyo string to PawSox land. When you look at the roster the only other option type names are Brasier and Velazquez. Cora obviously trusts Brasier and Hector , so this is a very tough call. All the more so when E. Rodriguez, C. Sale, and S. Wright decide they are feeling good. Wright can be held back until roster expansion in Sept. Sale needs to be back , if he's 90% or better. Rodriguez probably comes back over top of Johnson. And then there is always the DL, real or imagined.

[Kimmi]

I think that Workman is the one on the yoyo string to PawSox land. When you look at the roster the only other option type names are Brasier and Velazquez. Cora obviously trusts Brasier and Hector , so this is a very tough call. All the more so when E. Rodriguez, C. Sale, and S. Wright decide they are feeling good. Wright can be held back until roster expansion in Sept. Sale needs to be back , if he's 90% or better. Rodriguez probably comes back over top of Johnson. And then there is always the DL, real or imagined.

 

I think Workman has already been sent down?

 

If things go well in the Yankees series, I can see the Sox holding Sale on the DL for an extra start or two. The roster expansion will help things out a bit, but then we'll have some more tough decisions to make once the playoff start.

 

It's a good problem to have, I guess.

[mvp 78]

I think Workman has already been sent down?

 

If things go well in the Yankees series, I can see the Sox holding Sale on the DL for an extra start or two. The roster expansion will help things out a bit, but then we'll have some more tough decisions to make once the playoff start.

 

It's a good problem to have, I guess.

 

Workman was brought back up when Sale went on the DL