A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/10/17/4849688/jose-abreu-rumors-astros-red-sox-white-sox-finalists

 

And the more I read, the more confusing it gets. I see numerous reports that the Sox only bid 40M on Abreu, which was clearly not going to get it done. It's just a PR move to say that you bid for him at that point. However, the following summer when the Sox were sucking wind, FO reported that the Sox were only $5M off the final bid (which would have been $63M, not $40M).

[mvp 78]

lol....check mate.

 

I will bet anyone million that there was an article about sox coming in second, behind the White Sox. I'm not betting it's true, but there was an article.

 

Just because a guy on this board hasn't seen it doesn't make it didn't happen.

 

If that's checkmate, you must be terrible at checkers.

[moonslav59]

If that's checkmate, you must be terrible at checkers.

 

...but a master at chess.

[Nick]

...but a master at chess.

 

Can we talk about more fun stuff? How are we going to sign Machado to $33M 12 year deal? Don't tell Kimmi.

 

Trade always fading Xander $ 7.0 M (he's only got year left)

Kiss Pom and his bicep good bye $ 8.5 M (replaced with Wright)

Increase in cap $ 9.0 M

Hanley's option dismissed $ 22.0 M

Trade Porcello $ 20.6 M (He sucks every other year, get ahead of the curve)...Hector's ready to go.

 

Total $ 66.1 M

 

That's enough money to sign Machado, Kimbrel and pay arb raises.

 

Chicks still dig long balls.

Edited June 5, 2018 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Can we talk about more fun stuff? How are we going to sign Machado to $33M 12 year deal? Don't tell Kimmi.

 

Trade always fading Xander $ 7.0 M (he's only got year left)

Kiss Pom and his bicep good bye $ 8.5 M (replaced with Wright)

Increase in cap $ 9.0 M

Hanley's option dismissed $ 22.0 M

Trade Porcello $ 20.6 M (He sucks every other year, get ahead of the curve)...Hector's ready to go.

 

Total $ 66.1 M

 

That's enough money to sign Machado, Kimbrel and pay arb raises.

 

Chicks still dig long balls.

 

Machado's next contract is just another albatross waiting to happen. A lot of Red Sox fans already dislike him. As a free agent bust he would be Public Enemy #1.

[moonslav59]

Maybe going for mid level free agents for shorter deals will be the best way to go going forward.

[kenmeister]

Machado seems like a reach, but if Pedroia really can't come back, I'd like to see Lowrie to the Sox to play 2B.

[moonslav59]

Machado seems like a reach, but if Pedroia really can't come back, I'd like to see Lowrie to the Sox to play 2B.

 

What's the fascination with ex-Sox players?

 

Lowrie has missed more time with injuries than Pedey, Holt and Nunez combined.

[harmony]

What's the fascination with ex-Sox players?

 

Lowrie has missed more time with injuries than Pedey, Holt and Nunez combined.

FWIW, Jed Lowrie has played 212 of Oakland's last 222 games.

[notin]

Machado seems like a reach, but if Pedroia really can't come back, I'd like to see Lowrie to the Sox to play 2B.

 

Marco Hernandez...

[moonslav59]

FWIW, Jed Lowrie has played 212 of Oakland's last 222 games.

 

...and 146 out of 324 before that.

[Spudboy]

Maybe going for mid level free agents for shorter deals will be the best way to go going forward.

 

It would make Kimmi happy!

[moonslav59]

There might not be any other choice.

[Spudboy]

There might not be any other choice.

 

I like mid-level acquisitions.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS+ Leaders

 

208 Betts

169 JD

160 Moreland

139 Beni

127 Bogey

124 Holt

 

78 Devers

77 Leon

76 Nunez

60 JBJ

29 Vaz

12 Swihart

 

ERA-

 

36 Wright

47 Velazquez

48 Kimbrel

48 Barnes

 

68 Sale

68 Kelly

 

82 Porcello

84 Walden

86 Smith

89 ERod

94 Price

 

102 Hembree

119 Johnson

156 Pomeranz

 

[notin]

If that's checkmate, you must be terrible at checkers.

 

Clever

[notin]

It would make Kimmi happy!

 

Notin, too. Those big deals are usually way to expensive for players on the wrong side of 30.

 

This off-season does have a couple very enticing possibilities that do not fit that mold in Harper and Machado, but I think Dombrowski already spent his allowance and won't be a participant. And, really, where he spent it (JD Martinez) shouldn't give any reason for anyone to complain about that....

[S5Dewey]

Notin, too. Those big deals are usually way to expensive for players on the wrong side of 30.

 

This off-season does have a couple very enticing possibilities that do not fit that mold in Harper and Machado, but I think Dombrowski already spent his allowance and won't be a participant. And, really, where he spent it (JD Martinez) shouldn't give any reason for anyone to complain about that....

 

DD has made a lot of trades but there aren't many I'd undo. This team is in a dogfight to win the division and it's because of the trades/acquisitions DD has made. Anyone who's saying that the team would be better off if some of those trades weren't made is speculating and I'll take the 2018 Sox over speculation.

[notin]

DD has made a lot of trades but there aren't many I'd undo. This team is in a dogfight to win the division and it's because of the trades/acquisitions DD has made. Anyone who's saying that the team would be better off if some of those trades weren't made is speculating and I'll take the 2018 Sox over speculation.

 

I don't think it's speculation that the Sox would be better off with Shaw than Thornburg, at least in 2018.

 

There might be debate about Miley/Smith, but arguments can be made for both sides there, as well.

 

But the bigger names not in the bullpen, yes the Sox are a better team in 2018 with Sale, Kimbrel and even what's left of Pomeranz.

 

Now, when 2020 and 2021 roll around, hopefully we will have a WSC in the back pocket. Because the current farm doesn't look promising, and pitching staff will carry an extremely expensive and potentially declining David Price hogging up financial resources, and maybe a key starter like Bradley or Bogaerts heading elsewhere for bigger cash payouts, and this farm system does not look equipped to replace any of these players with anyone of even remotely the same caliber.

 

But a lot can change in 3 years..

[notin]

DD has made a lot of trades but there aren't many I'd undo. This team is in a dogfight to win the division and it's because of the trades/acquisitions DD has made. Anyone who's saying that the team would be better off if some of those trades weren't made is speculating and I'll take the 2018 Sox over speculation.

 

Would you undo the Price contract?

 

It looked a lot better when there was a much stronger possibility that he might opt out after 3 good seasons in Boston. But given his off and on health, his overall performance, and the recent decline in the price of free agents his age, it does look like he will make in excess of $30,000,000 per season until he is 37 years old. And if he isn't the same pitcher DD paid for at 32, he isn't very likely to return to that level at 36 or 37...

[S5Dewey]

I don't think it's speculation that the Sox would be better off with Shaw than Thornburg, at least in 2018.

 

There might be debate about Miley/Smith, but arguments can be made for both sides there, as well.

 

But the bigger names not in the bullpen, yes the Sox are a better team in 2018 with Sale, Kimbrel and even what's left of Pomeranz.

 

Now, when 2020 and 2021 roll around, hopefully we will have a WSC in the back pocket. Because the current farm doesn't look promising, and pitching staff will carry an extremely expensive and potentially declining David Price hogging up financial resources, and maybe a key starter like Bradley or Bogaerts heading elsewhere for bigger cash payouts, and this farm system does not look equipped to replace any of these players with anyone of even remotely the same caliber.

 

But a lot can change in 3 years..

 

Maybe Travis Shaw is the poster child for keeping Swihart around. IIRC Shaw had a horrible season - two half seasons consecutively) and had lots of chances to redeem himself in Boston and failed. Now he's playing like a Major Leaguer in Milwaukee. IMO this could happen with Swihart too. It's the chance you take when you trade someone.

 

I agree with the window or not but I don't foresee the dreaded cliff. "Cliff" to me implies finishing last in the division for a couple of years. IMO the team may be non-competitive for a year or two, finishing 3rd while they reload but right now we're in this window and we need to make the best of it.

 

In short, I'd rather have the players we have and win 100 games this year than not have a couple of them and win 90 so we can make a run in 2021.

[moonslav59]

In hindsight, I'd undo Price, Pom and Thornburg, but that's not really a fair way at looking at the issue.

 

As I've said several times before, I'm happy with DD's overall plan to build a 4-5 year window, but I am not sugar coating the fact that this team will have serious problems by 2020 or 2021.

[Nick]

DD has made a lot of trades but there aren't many I'd undo. This team is in a dogfight to win the division and it's because of the trades/acquisitions DD has made. Anyone who's saying that the team would be better off if some of those trades weren't made is speculating and I'll take the 2018 Sox over speculation.

 

100% correct

 

Also

 

1 I go back and forth but ultimately Sox did the right thing with Hanley. Several here always complain about fiscal responsibility yet they still complain when we shed $22M off of our payroll. Hanley's days were numbered when Sox signed both Moreland and JD Martinez. How about that albatross of $18M still on the books for Pablo in 2019? Those two contracts might be the worst singings consummated at the same time.

 

2 I'm a strong believer in knowing the bad news immediately. Through injuries and whatever, Swihart to me has never had a fair amount of opportunity. It's time to find out what his future is with the Sox. I wanted Moncada brought up sooner rather than later. I also wanted to see Devers in Sox uniform sooner than later. I'm convinced that after watching Moncada, DD decided Devers was just as good. Moncada and Kopech brought us Sale.

 

3 It's great to see Jalen Beeks get a spot start tomorrow. When was the last time Sox had a drafted rookie take the mound? It's freaking time to find out what some of these kids got. It may even save us $8M and $20M next year.

 

4. I was 100% behind singing of Moreland. Not because he's doing well. I had no idea how he would perform this year. But, at the very least, DD brought back the entire starting position players back for 2018. That's what good business owners do. Establish baseline.

 

With that accomplished, DD was able to play chess or checkers with JD's agent. Agent was check mated at the end. Yeah DD probably overpaid for Moreland. So what? It was more important to have the starting lineup set, then go after JD to improve the team rather than holding your genital for a bargain that may never come.

 

5 I love this team and I love how the management is running the baseball operation. I also love the change in managers. This team needed a different voice.

Edited June 6, 2018 by Nick

[notin]

Maybe Travis Shaw is the poster child for keeping Swihart around. IIRC Shaw had a horrible season - two half seasons consecutively) and had lots of chances to redeem himself in Boston and failed. Now he's playing like a Major Leaguer in Milwaukee. IMO this could happen with Swihart too. It's the chance you take when you trade someone.

 

I agree with the window or not but I don't foresee the dreaded cliff. "Cliff" to me implies finishing last in the division for a couple of years. IMO the team may be non-competitive for a year or two, finishing 3rd while they reload but right now we're in this window and we need to make the best of it.

 

In short, I'd rather have the players we have and win 100 games this year than not have a couple of them and win 90 so we can make a run in 2021.

 

Thoughts on the Price deal?

 

I normally hate those type of long mega-deals for 30+ players, but I did like Price's contract at the time solely because of the opt out.

 

But with everything that has happened since, I think it's a terrible deal that might have significant repercussions...

[notin]

100% correct

 

 

3 It's great to see Jalen Beeks get a spot start tomorrow. When was the last time Sox had a drafted rookie take the mound? It's freaking time to find out what some of these kids got. It may even save us $8M and $20M next year.

 

.

 

Brian Johnson, earlier this year.

Edited June 6, 2018 by notin

[S5Dewey]

Would you undo the Price contract?

 

It looked a lot better when there was a much stronger possibility that he might opt out after 3 good seasons in Boston. But given his off and on health, his overall performance, and the recent decline in the price of free agents his age, it does look like he will make in excess of $30,000,000 per season until he is 37 years old. And if he isn't the same pitcher DD paid for at 32, he isn't very likely to return to that level at 36 or 37...

 

Hindsight being 20/20 I'd consider undoing the Price contract but no one could foresee what was going to happen in terms of Price's health or the decline in pay of starting pitchers. So I have no major gripe with the contract. You do what you have to do with the conditions in place at the time.

Even right now I wouldn't undo it though. Yes, he's overpaid for what he's contributing, but my next question would be who could we sign (not who would we LIKE to sign, but who COULD we sign?) to take his place for less money.

I've been critical of Price, especially for his lack of success in the playoffs, but I've now resigned myself to his not being a true Ace but instead a #2 guy. I believe that in a worst case scenario he will help the Sox get to the playoffs. What he does after that is what scares me. BUT.. we have our Ace. It's Chris Freakin' SALE!

[notin]

Hindsight being 20/20 I'd consider undoing the Price contract but no one could foresee what was going to happen in terms of Price's health or the decline in pay of starting pitchers. So I have no major gripe with the contract. You do what you have to do with the conditions in place at the time.

Even right now I wouldn't undo it though. Yes, he's overpaid for what he's contributing, but my next question would be who could we sign (not who would we LIKE to sign, but who COULD we sign?) to take his place for less money.

I've been critical of Price, especially for his lack of success in the playoffs, but I've now resigned myself to his not being a true Ace but instead a #2 guy. I believe that in a worst case scenario he will help the Sox get to the playoffs. What he does after that is what scares me. BUT.. we have our Ace. It's Chris Freakin' SALE!

 

 

I liked the Price deal at the time, and holding what has happened since against DD isn't really all that fair.

 

But that deal can have some really negative repercussions. I'd rather have a cheaper or shorter team pitcher there and use the $30mill to extend as many as possible from Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley.

 

The Killer B's should be the future of this team, not Price...

[S5Dewey]

I liked the Price deal at the time, and holding what has happened since against DD isn't really all that fair.

 

But that deal can have some really negative repercussions. I'd rather have a cheaper or shorter team pitcher there and use the $30mill to extend as many as possible from Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley.

 

The Killer B's should be the future of this team, not Price...

 

Price is still capable of being a 20 game winner in 2018 though, and I want to get through that window while it's open.

[Nick]

Brian Johnson, earlier this year.

 

Thanks.....I completely forgot. He was one of three high pitching prospects for the Sox three or four years ago.

[moonslav59]

Brian Johnson, earlier this year.

 

Plus, while Velazquez was not "drafted", he was initially brought in by our organization.