A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[MADSTORK]

Remember what Johnny Gomes said after a 13 playoff win? Speaking of the War analytics he said, "its not about WAR its about who you go to WAR with" End quote. Result 13 Champs

 

You can take all this Bill James Garb and set fire to it. Remember Matt Bush? The list is long and distinguished of Players who are selling used cars who were to be certain analytical hall of famers.

 

There are some telling stats much like the combined Reliever WHIP minus Kimbrel of 1.6. 9 10 last 19 and more holes than swiss cheese. Thanks Dave, Ben Crockett and Allan Baird

[harmony]

Remember what Johnny Gomes said after a 13 playoff win? Speaking of the War analytics he said, "its not about WAR its about who you go to WAR with" End quote. Result 13 Champs

 

You can take all this Bill James Garb and set fire to it. Remember Matt Bush? The list is long and distinguished of Players who are selling used cars who were to be certain analytical hall of famers.

There are some telling stats much like the combined Reliever WHIP minus Kimbrel of 1.6. 9 10 last 19 and more holes than swiss cheese. Thanks Dave, Ben Crockett and Allan Baird

Matt Bush, the No. 1 pick as a high school shortstop in the 2004 draft, was the antithesis of an analytical darling. Bush was the local San Diego kid who "looked like a ballplayer."

 

Despite a trouble life that has included felony convictions and a prison term, Bush is not selling used cars. Bush made his MLB debut in 2015 as a 30-year-old reliever and has posted a 3.16 ERA (147 ERA+) in 40 MLB appearances with the Texas Rangers. On April 25 the Rangers sent Bush down to Triple A to work on control issues:

 

https://nolanwritin.com/2018/05/11/texas-rangers-update-matt-bush/

[moonslav59]

On a lighter note, I was born in '59 and turned 59 today.

 

The big 6-0 seems frightening to me, in some ways.

 

I guess 70 is the new 50, or do only old guys say that?

[harmony]

On a lighter note, I was born in '59 and turned 59 today.

 

The big 6-0 seems frightening to me, in some ways.

 

I guess 70 is the new 50, or do only old guys say that?

Happy Birthday, moonslav. You are the anchor of this forum.

 

For better or worse.

 

Never fear your 60s ... it has been a great decade for me so far. I never imagined my 60s would feel this young.

[moonslav59]

Happy Birthday, moonslav. You are the anchor of this forum.

 

For better or worse.

 

Never fear your 60s ... it has been a great decade for me so far. I never imagined my 60s would feel this young.

 

Thanks, harmony. It's been fun having our back-n-forths over the years and over multiple sites.

[User Name]

Remember what Johnny Gomes said after a 13 playoff win? Speaking of the War analytics he said, "its not about WAR its about who you go to WAR with" End quote. Result 13 Champs

 

You can take all this Bill James Garb and set fire to it. Remember Matt Bush? The list is long and distinguished of Players who are selling used cars who were to be certain analytical hall of famers.

 

There are some telling stats much like the combined Reliever WHIP minus Kimbrel of 1.6. 9 10 last 19 and more holes than swiss cheese. Thanks Dave, Ben Crockett and Allan Baird

 

What the hell are you even talking about?

[Slasher9]

On a lighter note, I was born in '59 and turned 59 today.

 

The big 6-0 seems frightening to me, in some ways.

 

I guess 70 is the new 50, or do only old guys say that?

 

Happy birthday Moon!

[Bellhorn04]

There are some telling stats much like the combined Reliever WHIP minus Kimbrel of 1.6.

 

More horseshit, or should I say Storkshit.

[notin]

Did you read James's actual comments though? Some of them were a little surprising. He was highly critical of choosing the MVP based on WAR alone and not looking at the situational hitting stats. He said that Altuve should have easily won the MVP over Judge because Altuve's numbers in high-leverage situations were so much better, and that he therefore contributed more directly to wins.

 

James also scoffed at the value of Pythagorean record and suggested that the difference between the Yankees Pythagorean record and their actual record demonstrated that they were not good in close games-seemingly discounting the randomness aspect.

 

That's the way I read it, anyway.

 

I don't think he was disappointing the Pythagorean theorem for wins, which he developed. I think what he was getting at was that WAR for a player seems to be separated from the team play and focused on the individual. Sort of the opposite of win shares.

 

For example, if the Yankees were 2 games below their projected wins (in real time), how could Judge be worth 8 wins?

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think he was disappointing the Pythagorean theorem for wins, which he developed. I think what he was getting at was that WAR for a player seems to be separated from the team play and focused on the individual. Sort of the opposite of win shares.

 

For example, if the Yankees were 2 games below their projected wins (in real time), how could Judge be worth 8 wins?

 

Yeah, I was just a little surprised by how much he focused on Altuve's late-and-close numbers and his suggestion that it doesn't really matter if luck and randomness enters into it.

[OH FOY]

Does it help WAR when you make an out?

[Bellhorn04]

Does it help WAR when you make an out?

 

Yes!

 

It helps the pitcher's WAR and possibly the fielder's.

[OH FOY]

Let me put it this does it help WAR when you win a game when you make an Out? Pitcher losses Fielder Losses. No?

Sac Fly there is no at bat. Fielders Choice Run scores, could be winning run.

Fielders Choice everybody did their job, but you could still lose the game. Still was an Out. But you could lose too.

Not every game is won on the HR. Usually its the small things that win them.

Edited May 12, 2018 by OH FOY!

[harmony]

Does it help WAR when you make an out?

Recommended reading:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

[moonslav59]

Top Sox OBP

 

.435 Betts (The man!)

.389 Moreland (WOW!)

.385 JDM (Steady Jay-dee)

.377 Holt (61 PAs)

.353 Bogey (Keep it going!)

.350 HRam (Pushing for his vest)

.344 Beni (Still batting 2nd)

.306 Devers (Sophomore slump?)

.264 Nunez (Closer to his career norm than his '17 Sox OBP)

.256 JBJ (Those HBPs are saving him from an OBP Mendoza)

.239 Vaz (Bring back 2017!)

 

SLG

.780 Betts the beast

.619 Moreland the Marvelous

.603 JMart being JMart

.573 Bogey finally showing power

.482 Holt showing the added beef

.464 HRam doing it when it counts

.439 Devers trying to re-adjust

.418 Beni actually close to 2017 here

.370 Nunez below hopes

.254 JBJ in a funk

.225 Vaz not much higher than his BA

 

OPS

5 guys over .800 (not counting Holt)

2 between .740 and .765

We need Pedey to turn two black holes into one.

 

[moonslav59]

Sox ERA- Leaders

 

46 Kimbrel

48 Sale

50 Poyner

51 Velazquez

54 Kelly

62 Porcello

72 Barnes

75 Smith

82 Walden

102 ERod

109 Price

116 Pom

127 Hembree

147 Johnson

 

WHIP

0.75 Kimbrel

0.90 Sale

0.95 Porcello

0.98 Kelly

1.14 Barnes

1.16 Walden

1.21 ERod

1.25 Poyner

1.27 Velazquez

1.42 Price

1.43 Smith

1.50 Pom

1.62 Hembree

1.63 Johnson

 

MLB Leaders in ERA-

 

The Astros have 3 in the top 6!

1. Verlander 29

2. G Cole 34

6. Morton 48

(All 5 starters under 88)

 

The Sox have 2 in the top 17

5. Sale 48

17. Porcello 62

 

The Cards have 2 in the top 18

3. CMart 42

18. Mikolas 65

 

The Guardians have 2 in the top 16

15. Kluber 59

16. Clevinger 61

 

The yanks only have 2 guys with 40+ IP

9. Severino 52

64. Tanaka 106

 

I you drop down to 30 IP, the sample size grows to 121 SP'ers, and Sabathia places 11th at 51, ERod is at 71 with 102 and Price is at 81 with 109.

 

 

 

[OH FOY]

Wright and Thornburg are set to be added to 40 man roster this week, while Pedroia is suppose to start Rehab this week in Pawtucket. This Roster is going to be moving around. Holt and Barnes still have Options, Hembree and Swihart don't.

And Velazquez, don't know why they would drop him at this point. Doing OK.

Edited May 13, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Wright and Thornburg are set to be added to 40 man roster this week, while Pedroia is suppose to start Rehab this week in Pawtucket. This Roster is going to be moving around. Holt and Barnes still have Options, Hembree and Swihart don't.

And Velazquez, don't know why they would drop him at this point. Doing OK.

 

Hembree is starting to look a little toasty.

[moonslav59]

Wright and Thornburg are set to be added to 40 man roster this week, while Pedroia is suppose to start Rehab this week in Pawtucket. This Roster is going to be moving around. Holt and Barnes still have Options, Hembree and Swihart don't.

And Velazquez, don't know why they would drop him at this point. Doing OK.

 

You mean 25 man roster not 40.

 

Are we sure Wright will be called up and not given an extended rehab assignment? If so, it's crunch time.

 

I'd say Johnson gets a phantom DL or is traded/DFA'd. That makes room for Wright.

 

To make room for Thornburg, it would mean trading Hembree or sending Barnes or Velazquez to AAA. I don't really like any of those options, but I usually like to keep depth. Hembree looks bad, now, but he's been good in the past.

 

Pedey's return looks easy: either DL Nunez or JBJ or trade Swihart.

 

[OH FOY]

My mistake 25 man Roster. From what I understand his 15 game suspension ends today, for Wright.

[S5Dewey]

I don't see Wright getting immediately being reinstated, especially with the roster crunch it would cause. My guess is rehab for Wright, (at least until he learns how to run the bases without getting hurt - said facetiously). I still like Johnson and think he has promise.

 

I don't think they'll send Velazquez anyplace since he's been as good or better than most out of the pen and can spot start.

 

I think the past few days have been a precursor to what is going to happen when Pedey gets back. JBJ to the phantom DL where he'll work on his swing and pitch recognition. (As an aside, and they do that? Can they DL a player and have him work on his game while he's on the DL?)

[moonslav59]

I don't see Wright getting immediately being reinstated, especially with the roster crunch it would cause. My guess is rehab for Wright, (at least until he learns how to run the bases without getting hurt - said facetiously). I still like Johnson and think he has promise.

 

I don't think they'll send Velazquez anyplace since he's been as good or better than most out of the pen and can spot start.

 

I think the past few days have been a precursor to what is going to happen when Pedey gets back. JBJ to the phantom DL where he'll work on his swing and pitch recognition. (As an aside, and they do that? Can they DL a player and have him work on his game while he's on the DL?)

 

Players rehab all the time while on the DL. It might be strange if he begins rehabbing day 1.

[jacksonianmarch]

They couldn’t do that. They’d need to hold him out for a week or so. The easiest option is the most obvious. Swihart is the a band aid that you know has to come off, but you’d rather leave it there for a bit more time and pretend you don’t have to rip it off. Swihart is useless to this squad

[moonslav59]

They couldn’t do that. They’d need to hold him out for a week or so. The easiest option is the most obvious. Swihart is the a band aid that you know has to come off, but you’d rather leave it there for a bit more time and pretend you don’t have to rip it off. Swihart is useless to this squad

 

Swihart is the easiest choice, but we won't DFA or Trade Swihart when bringing up a pitcher. He'll go when Pedey returns.

 

The hard one will be Hembree traded/DFA'd or sending down Barnes or Velzquez. Some might argue trading/DFA'ing Johnson or sending down Barnes/Velazquez is just as difficult.

[moonslav59]

To change subjects, gotta like these numbers...

 

Kelly

 

K/9

8.1 in 2017> 10.8 in 2018

 

BB/9

4.2 in 2017> 3.4 in 2018

 

K/BB

1.93 to 3.14

[moonslav59]

Some Paw Sox numbers...

 

OPS

.696 Castillo

.648 Tavarez

.839 Mike Olt

.718 Sam Travis

.686 Butler

 

AA

1.001 Sturgeon

1.016 Quiroz

(Nobody else has 50+ PAs and an OPS above .796.)

 

All levels

Pitchers

OPS Against (30+ IP)

.538 K Crawford

.541 J Beeks

.583 Shawaryn

.604 D Reyes

.661 D Jimenez

.705 R Raudes

.705 J Diaz

.741 Cuevas

.760 J Haley

.780 Shepherd

 

...others

.713 B Mata 21 IP

.818 Scherf 22 IP

.832 Houck

.833 Thompson

 

 

 

Edited May 13, 2018 by moonslav59

[notin]

 

Pedey's return looks easy: either DL Nunez or JBJ or trade Swihart.

 

 

Or simple demote Bradley and use his last option...

[Larry Cook]

Nunez is giving us next to nothing defensively with that bad leg. When pedroia is healthy, Nunez needs some dl time so the can determine if he needs surgery or not.

[Spudboy]

Nunez is giving us next to nothing defensively with that bad leg. When pedroia is healthy, Nunez needs some dl time so the can determine if he needs surgery or not.

 

Interesting idea.

 

Although Nunez bat seems like it's warming up.

[oldtimer]

Swihart is the easiest choice, but we won't DFA or Trade Swihart when bringing up a pitcher. He'll go when Pedey returns.

 

The hard one will be Hembree traded/DFA'd or sending down Barnes or Velzquez. Some might argue trading/DFA'ing Johnson or sending down Barnes/Velazquez is just as difficult.

 

If Vaz or Leon get injured, Swihart is the obvious replacement so I think we may keep him. He is flexible Hembree and/or Johnson could go when Thornburg comes up. Barnes is not solid but he is probably better than others we might get.

 

Who goes when Pedey comes up around the 1st of June? Could be Holt or we could have an injury in the interim which would change that scenario.

 

JBJ doesn't seem to have any trade value so he will probably be kept as a utility man for the time being. I can't see us handicapping ourselves with Bradley, either catcher, Holt and to some degree Devers in the lineup together. Yes we get rest but do have a greaster risk of losing winnable games.