The Depth Argument

[Kimmi]

I think your post accurately reflects Dombrowski's thinking. I suspect the holdup all along is the length of any contract and we will just have to wait to see how this plays out.

 

I would prefer to increase the $$$ per year rather than increase the number of years. Hopefully Dombrowski won't give in to ridiculous demands.

[moonslav59]

Possibly Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta if they are thinking of going in a different direction as well

 

I agree. Option B or C is likely not a hitter. If we don't go large on JD, I think we go large on a SP'er and see how HRam looks.

 

That's what I meant by DD not having to hurry until Darvish or Arrieta are close to signing.

[moonslav59]

I would prefer to increase the $$$ per year rather than increase the number of years. Hopefully Dombrowski won't give in to ridiculous demands.

 

Maybe something like $125M/5 with a 6th year option at $25M or $5M buyout, making it essentially a $130M/5 or $150M/6 deal. Not close to $210M/7.

[Kimmi]

Maybe something like $125M/5 with a 6th year option at $25M or $5M buyout, making it essentially a $130M/5 or $150M/6 deal. Not close to $210M/7.

 

I can agree with that. I still think it's too much, but I understand that it's the likely price of doing business with JD.

[moonslav59]

I can agree with that. I still think it's too much, but I understand that it's the likely price of doing business with JD.

 

$26M x 5 is still too much, but if that's what it takes, we probably will "take the plunge."

 

My concern is that even $130M/5 might be bidding against ourselves. I'm not sure anyone else will come c lose to that, so maybe we should start at something like this...

 

$105M/4 with a 5th year option at $26M with a $5M option making it a $110M/4 or $131M/5 deal.

 

[notin]

I agree. Option B or C is likely not a hitter. If we don't go large on JD, I think we go large on a SP'er and see how HRam looks.

 

That's what I meant by DD not having to hurry until Darvish or Arrieta are close to signing.

 

Not to mention, there is a definite PR value and ticket sales impact in signing/acquiring players of this magnitude. Jay Bruce is far less enticing to ticket sales than Yu Darvish...

[moonslav59]

Not to mention, there is a definite PR value and ticket sales impact in signing/acquiring players of this magnitude. Jay Bruce is far less enticing to ticket sales than Yu Darvish...

 

For sure...

[dgalehouse]

I would like to see the Sox acquire Darvish , even if they do sign Martinez, but especially if they fail to do so. However , to say that acquiring Darvish would promote ticket sales is questionable , to say the least. It would have little to no effect on ticket sales.

[Larry Cook]

$26M x 5 is still too much, but if that's what it takes, we probably will "take the plunge."

 

My concern is that even $130M/5 might be bidding against ourselves. I'm not sure anyone else will come c lose to that, so maybe we should start at something like this...

 

$105M/4 with a 5th year option at $26M with a $5M option making it a $110M/4 or $131M/5 deal.

 

 

I expect there to be at least four teams in on JD. And I remain positive Boras is using us as bait.

[moonslav59]

I would like to see the Sox acquire Darvish , even if they do sign Martinez, but especially if they fail to do so. However , to say that acquiring Darvish would promote ticket sales is questionable , to say the least. It would have little to no effect on ticket sales.

 

Signing JD and Darvish would put us over the second luxury tax penalty tier.

 

It's not a horrible penalty, but I doubt we do it. At least Darvish and JD have no QO penalties.

[notin]

I would like to see the Sox acquire Darvish , even if they do sign Martinez, but especially if they fail to do so. However , to say that acquiring Darvish would promote ticket sales is questionable , to say the least. It would have little to no effect on ticket sales.

 

I can say with absolute certainty it will have a greater effect than signing Jay Bruce. And it should...

[dgalehouse]

I can say with absolute certainty it will have a greater effect than signing Jay Bruce. And it should...

 

If three or four ticket sales are worth the difference in salaries between Bruce and Darvish , then I can say with absolute certainty that you are right . I would rather have Darvish , Bruce is not on my wish list. But Darvish is not the kind of signing that will promote ticket sales. Not in the least.

[notin]

If three or four ticket sales are worth the difference in salaries between Bruce and Darvish , then I can say with absolute certainty that you are right . I would rather have Darvish , Bruce is not on my wish list. But Darvish is not the kind of signing that will promote ticket sales. Not in the least.

 

Why don't you think so? Please don't say because of his two post-season starts against Houston.

 

Now if you say his history or arm troubles, I can see that...

[moonslav59]

I doubt the injury history of Darvish would keep anyone from buying a ticket.

[notin]

I doubt the injury history of Darvish would keep anyone from buying a ticket.

 

Probably not, but his injury history should be more troubling than two post-season starts

[Larry Cook]

Probably not, but his injury history should be more troubling than two post-season starts

 

Darvish had a tell that Houston picked up on.

 

Hard to have any success when you are tipping pitches like that!

[moonslav59]

Darvish had a tell that Houston picked up on.

 

Hard to have any success when you are tipping pitches like that!

 

Easy to fix, since our new manager knows the "tell".

[OH FOY]

I think Darvish signs with the Cubs.

[moonslav59]

I think Darvish signs with the Cubs.

 

If we don't sign JD, and we choose to outbid the Cubs for Darvish, we should have enough money to do so (in theory).

[mvp 78]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/246793/average-per-game-attendance-of-the-boston-red-sox/

 

I'm not sure any FA would spike attendance all that much. It's hard to really say what attendance has been the past decade since I believe the Sox were pumping up their numbers with that phony sell out streak that ended in 2013. If you take stock in what they report, you'd probably think that the worse thing they did was sell off the team in 2012 and hand it over to BV. The early ticket sales for 2013 were hurt more by the previous season fiasco than the FA signings of 2013 which helped bring a WS. 2014 looks to have gotten a WS bump from the prior year, but that year's last place finish hurt 2015. 2016 sales increased most likely due to the Papi retirement tour. 2017 sales decreased even though they brought in Sale and were basically the AL East leader bell to bell.

 

Darvish ain't making a difference in sales IMO.

[moonslav59]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/246793/average-per-game-attendance-of-the-boston-red-sox/

 

I'm not sure any FA would spike attendance all that much. It's hard to really say what attendance has been the past decade since I believe the Sox were pumping up their numbers with that phony sell out streak that ended in 2013. If you take stock in what they report, you'd probably think that the worse thing they did was sell off the team in 2012 and hand it over to BV. The early ticket sales for 2013 were hurt more by the previous season fiasco than the FA signings of 2013 which helped bring a WS. 2014 looks to have gotten a WS bump from the prior year, but that year's last place finish hurt 2015. 2016 sales increased most likely due to the Papi retirement tour. 2017 sales decreased even though they brought in Sale and were basically the AL East leader bell to bell.

 

Darvish ain't making a difference in sales IMO.

 

Good points. Lucky DD and Henry want to win, and it's not just about the money.

[mvp 78]

Now, some astute readers might wonder WELL WHAT ABOUT NESN RATINGS?

 

http://www.weei.com/blogs/alex-reimer/red-sox-ratings-nesn-are-down-20-percent-season

 

Though ratings were up last season (2016), the team still failed to consistently win the front page on its way to a 96-win finish. On the night of Sept. 15, for example, when Hanley Ramirez hit a walk-off home run against the Yankees –– a win that Dan Shaughnessy called “one of the greatest regular-season victories of all-time" –– more viewers were tuned into the Jets-Bills matchup on Thursday Night Football.

 

Ratings have been trending downward for nearly the last decade. From 2004-2009, the Red Sox finished No. 1 among all local markets in TV ratings. They haven't placed higher than No. 3 among all local markets since, and have been out of the top five since 2013.

 

If the Red Sox continue to win, more people will probably watch. But this period of seeming apathy might be the new normal.

 

Even though the Sox are one of the best teams in baseball, the product on air is still reaching fewer and fewer eyeballs. Darvish isn't going to increase viewership.

 

Now, it's not much of a surprise that a Sox game towards the end of an overly long season would have less viewers than an NFL game at the start of its season. However, the Yankees and Red Sox rivalry is supposed to be one of the greatest rivalries in sports. This was Papi's retirement tour with strong home attendance. If that game can't beat out a s***** Jets/Bills game shown on the NFL Network only, it says a lot about the state of baseball both in Boston and elsewhere.

[moonslav59]

You gotta think the salary bubble has to burst at some point, if TV viewership and fan attendance continues to fall across all markets.

[Larry Cook]

You gotta think the salary bubble has to burst at some point, if TV viewership and fan attendance continues to fall across all markets.

 

I expect that is is what we are seeing in basketball now. Add in cable on the verge of collapse once “ala cart” becomes reality, half the league could dissolve!

 

Football appears next in line for a correction that will bring a world of hurt to players and owners alike.

 

It could get ugly out there!

[jacksonianmarch]

You gotta think the salary bubble has to burst at some point, if TV viewership and fan attendance continues to fall across all markets.

 

Baseball is making far more money than they are letting on and with revenue sharing, all the teams are very capable of paying the rent. You have to remember, MLB could break even and then some on TV deals alone and those deals aren't up for re-negotiation for years. Teams are creating their own networks to rake in the cash even further. There is a reason a franchise like Miami was worth $2.1 billion.

[Bellhorn04]

Baseball is making far more money than they are letting on and with revenue sharing, all the teams are very capable of paying the rent. You have to remember, MLB could break even and then some on TV deals alone and those deals aren't up for re-negotiation for years. Teams are creating their own networks to rake in the cash even further. There is a reason a franchise like Miami was worth $2.1 billion.

 

The Miami sale was actually $1.2 billion. That's what us accounting types call transposed numbers - they can be deadly.

 

Still, $1.2 billion is an amazing amount for a crap franchise.

 

But I have to ask, where does all the money keep coming from? If subscription TV viewership drops significantly, there's no way that doesn't start to push the needle in the other direction at some point. Revenue has to come from somewhere, the pockets of the fans.

[jacksonianmarch]

Now, some astute readers might wonder WELL WHAT ABOUT NESN RATINGS?

 

http://www.weei.com/blogs/alex-reimer/red-sox-ratings-nesn-are-down-20-percent-season

 

Though ratings were up last season (2016), the team still failed to consistently win the front page on its way to a 96-win finish. On the night of Sept. 15, for example, when Hanley Ramirez hit a walk-off home run against the Yankees –– a win that Dan Shaughnessy called “one of the greatest regular-season victories of all-time" –– more viewers were tuned into the Jets-Bills matchup on Thursday Night Football.

 

Ratings have been trending downward for nearly the last decade. From 2004-2009, the Red Sox finished No. 1 among all local markets in TV ratings. They haven't placed higher than No. 3 among all local markets since, and have been out of the top five since 2013.

 

If the Red Sox continue to win, more people will probably watch. But this period of seeming apathy might be the new normal.

 

Even though the Sox are one of the best teams in baseball, the product on air is still reaching fewer and fewer eyeballs. Darvish isn't going to increase viewership.

 

Now, it's not much of a surprise that a Sox game towards the end of an overly long season would have less viewers than an NFL game at the start of its season. However, the Yankees and Red Sox rivalry is supposed to be one of the greatest rivalries in sports. This was Papi's retirement tour with strong home attendance. If that game can't beat out a s***** Jets/Bills game shown on the NFL Network only, it says a lot about the state of baseball both in Boston and elsewhere.

 

 

You have a lot to contend with in Boston with the Pats, C's and B's doing well. Some fans aren't able to multi-fan to the tune of 4 teams. Also, the sox hay day involved lethal offenses. I know the commish doesn't like long games, but there was a definite allure to the Manny/Papi and ARod/Jeter led squads of the mid 2000s and the 4+ hour slugfests that ensued. The offenses were crazy. Yes, you saw the final firing of Pedro's arm and the bloody sock and the curse end, but the games were fun because the offenses were ridiculous. Fast forward past 2004 and you have two clubs see-sawing in terms of competitiveness. The sox take 2007, the Yanks 2009, the sox 2013. But after 2012, the Yankees really became average and their offense stagnated. As 2016 came to a close, so did Papi and the offense in Boston cratered in terms of watchability thereafter. As much as a Boston fan wants to see the sox win a game, 90% of fans polled would like to see a 9-7 game with fireworks over a 2-1 Sale masterpiece. Pitching wins, but the longball sells. I watched a TON of sox games last yr as I live in MA and I watched a ton of Yankee games. The Yankees were more interesting to watch because they were always one swing away from changing things. The sox seemed to need a rally in order to get leads, something they did often, but they don't have a phrase "chicks dig the walk, single, sacrifice fly". The sox team also had a malaise attached to it. It was almost as if everyone knew the sox were going to get bounced in the playoffs. It was weird. That Boston bravado wasn't there and I think that partly was blamed on the mundane offensive game the team employed. This is another reason why you need a basher. It will help you win and it will help your team sell tickets. Signing Yu will help the team win, but like I said, people aren't going to be lining up to pay extra to see Yu Darvish throw in Fenway

[Station 13]

I personally can't do 3-4 hour games anymore. it's just too much everyday. I welcome a pitch clock for pitchers like Tanaka, Price, doesn't spend a minute shaking off signs and frequent mount visits.

[moonslav59]

I personally can't do 3-4 hour games anymore. it's just too much everyday. I welcome a pitch clock for pitchers like Tanaka, Price, doesn't spend a minute shaking off signs and frequent mount visits.

 

Try watching the games on tape. Fast forward all the commercials.

[mvp 78]

The Miami sale was actually $1.2 billion. That's what us accounting types call transposed numbers - they can be deadly.

 

Still, $1.2 billion is an amazing amount for a crap franchise.

 

But I have to ask, where does all the money keep coming from? If subscription TV viewership drops significantly, there's no way that doesn't start to push the needle in the other direction at some point. Revenue has to come from somewhere, the pockets of the fans.

 

Jeter's plan was to cut payroll, but increase ticket sales by $5M each of the next few years. Um, ok?