Martinez vs Hosmer vs Santana

[moonslav59]

Picture it like this. Men on first and third with one out and Duda at the plate. For every one home run, he will have 19 strike outs. Are you willing to take the good along with the bad?

 

An out is an out. I'd rather have a K than a GIDP or weak pop out/ground out.

 

Like I said, as long as he gets on base well enough, which he has, I'm fine with every out being a K.

 

Duda has some pretty good numbers over a 4 year stretch, and at his price tag, I'm interested.

 

2014-2017:

 

.338 OBP

.480 SLG

.242 ISO (tied with Bryce Harper for 12th in MLB)

 

Now, play him only vs RHPs and he'll be even better!

.260 ISO (8th in MLB over the last 4 years!)

.506 SLG (25th in MLB and higher than any current Sox player)

.355 OBP (45th out of 226 and tied with Pedey as the only current Sox player with an OBP equal or better than Duda's.)

 

With these numbers, I'll take a 65% K rate, as long as he gives me a .350 OBP and a .480+ SLG%. Hell, I'll take a 70% K rate, if Duda gives me a .300 OBP, a .500 SLG% and a .240 ISO.

 

[moonslav59]

In his career with men on first and third, Duda has hit 375/458/736 for a crazy 1194 OPS.

 

Perhaps more significantly, with RISP he has hit 231/375/433 for a respectable 808 OPS.

 

That's a lot of good to take with a few extra K's!

 

Besides, this whole "productive outs" argument is flimsy. For one thing, it rarely happens. For another, I doubt Duda's 17 less SF's vs RHPs than the league leader since 2014 is all that significant (about 4 per year).

 

[Bellhorn04]

That's a lot of good to take with a few extra K's!

 

Besides, this whole "productive outs" argument is flimsy. For one thing, it rarely happens. For another, I doubt Duda's 17 less SF's vs RHPs than the league leader since 2014 is all that significant (about 4 per year).

 

 

I don't think the value of putting the ball in play should be totally discounted. There are productive outs and errors from putting it in play.

 

But if a hitter has a good OBP and SLG he is productive, regardless of K's.

[a700hitter]

Duda is damaged goods— two bad hips and a bad shoulder. He is a streakier hitter than Brian Daubach was. When he is hot, he is a wrecking ball. When he is cold, he looks like he is blind for 2-3 week stretches or longer. His hot streaks are shorter than Daubach’s who would finish the season hitting around .265. Duda will finish around .235. His hots streaks are quick flashes, nothing prolonged. He will be hot for less than a week — usually 3-4 games. He’ll hit .700 during that time, and then he will hit .100 for the rest of the month. He is frustratingly inconsistent. Pass on this guy. He is also a slug on the bases.

[moonslav59]

Overall since 2014 (289 players with 1000+ PAs)

 

ISO

.301 Stanton (1st)

.274 JD Martinez (4th)

.242 Duda (13th)

.224 Abreu (27th)

.201 Moustakas (59th)

.199 Santana (61st)

.196 Morrison (68th)

.160 Hosmer (154th--Yuck!)

 

SLG

.574 JD Martinez (2nd)

.573 Stanton (3rd)

.524 Abreu (13th)

.479 Duda (39th)

.469 Santana (52nd)

.459 Moustakas (69th)

.449 Hosmer (81st)

 

OBP

.363 Santana (28th)

.362 JD Martinez (32nd)

.359 Abreu (37th)

.350 Hosmer (55th)

.338 Duda (90th)

 

 

vs RHPs since 2014 (226 players with 1000+ PAs)

 

ISO

.281 Stanton (3rd)

.260 Duda (9th)

.259 JD Martinez (10th)

.224 Santana (34th)

.220 Abreu (38th)

.220 Morrison (39th)

.206 Moustakas (54th)

.205 Reynolds (56th)

.203 Frazier (60th)

.199 Moreland (64th)

.174 Hosmer (107th--YUCK!)

 

SLG

.557 JD Martinez (4th)

.542 Stanton (9th)

.521 Abreu (17th)

.505 Duda (20th)

.480 Santana (42nd)

.475 Hosmer (50th)

 

OBP

.370 Hosmer (17th)

.360 OBP (36th)

.355 Duda (46th)

.355 JD Martinez (48th)

.354 Abreu (49th)

.352 Stanton (57th)

Edited November 23, 2017 by moonslav59

[Spudboy]

Duda is damaged goods— two bad hips and a bad shoulder. He is a streakier hitter than Brian Daubach was. When he is hot, he is a wrecking ball. When he is cold, he looks like he is blind for 2-3 week stretches or longer. His hot streaks are shorter than Daubach’s who would finish the season hitting around .265. Duda will finish around .235. His hots streaks are quick flashes, nothing prolonged. He will be hot for less than a week — usually 3-4 games. He’ll hit .700 during that time, and then he will hit .100 for the rest of the month. He is frustratingly inconsistent. Pass on this guy. He is also a slug on the bases.

 

Well I can not take your assessment seriously as you have only seen him play a several dozen times and you use no stats to support your opinion.

[a700hitter]

Well I can not take your assessment seriously as you have only seen him play a several dozen times and you use no stats to support your opinion.

LOL! I really don’t want Hosmer, Santana or Duda. If DD insists on getting one of them, I’d prefer Hosmer slightly over Santana.

[moonslav59]

I don't think the value of putting the ball in play should be totally discounted. There are productive outs and errors from putting it in play.

 

But if a hitter has a good OBP and SLG he is productive, regardless of K's.

 

I'm not totally discounting it, but if a guy gives me a .338 OBP, .480 SLG and a .242 ISO, I'm more than fine with him getting zero productive outs.

 

Then, add the fact that he might sign for just $6-8M/1 year,a nd I'm all in.

[moonslav59]

Duda is damaged goods— two bad hips and a bad shoulder. He is a streakier hitter than Brian Daubach was. When he is hot, he is a wrecking ball. When he is cold, he looks like he is blind for 2-3 week stretches or longer. His hot streaks are shorter than Daubach’s who would finish the season hitting around .265. Duda will finish around .235. His hots streaks are quick flashes, nothing prolonged. He will be hot for less than a week — usually 3-4 games. He’ll hit .700 during that time, and then he will hit .100 for the rest of the month. He is frustratingly inconsistent. Pass on this guy. He is also a slug on the bases.

 

Daubach never had quite as much power as Duda has.

 

As for the injuries, Duda did miss most of 2016, but he played in a league with no DH. In his other 3 seasons since 2014, he's put up these PAs:

596

554

491

(Note: he has also been platooned at times, so some of the missing PAs were not due to injury. His 1413 PAs vs RHPs places him 128th out of all ML players.)

 

As for streakiness: I'm not one that cares a lot about streaky. Just give me .800. Besides, the data does not support your position.

 

2017:

.927 on April 13th

.926 on July 2nd

(Lowest point: .798 on May 21st)

Still at .901 on August 10th.

Dropped pretty steadily after that to .818 by season's end.

 

Month by month

.931 April

.927 May

.896 June

.901 July

(That's 4 months of very consistent awesome hitting. Not "quick flashes.))

.702 Aug

.622 Sep

 

2015:

.915 April

.948 May (2 months is not a quick flash)

.576 June

.749 july (not bad)

.976 Aug

.961 Sep (another 2 month "quick flash.")

 

2014 saw no month below .708. He had a 2 month streak of .956 and 1.006 in June-July and an .841 in SEP.

 

While Duda's BA has been low (career ,242 and below that from 2016-2017), he still gets on base a lot.

 

On Daubauch, he was a hell of a player for a short period of time. I'd sign him at $6M during his best 4 year stretch (1999-2002). He was a pretty streaky hitter.

 

1999

4 months over .909

2 months at .759

 

2000

1 month at 1.091

1 month at .798

3 months between .720-750

1 at .469

 

2001

2 months over .894

2 months between .843 and 866

2 months between .743 and .785

 

2002

3 months .945-.971

1 month at .879

2 months .529-.614

 

Daubauch 1999-2002 vs Duda 2014-2017

 

Daubauch 1947 PAs

.266 84 234

.342 OBP

.494 SLG

.225 ISO

 

Duda 1813 PAs

.238 94 211

.338 OBP

.480 SLG

.242 ISO

[moonslav59]

Granted, Daubach fell off a cliff at age 31-32 after those best 4 years.

 

Certainly, Duda could do the same at age 32. At about $6M/1, I think it's worth the risk.

[moonslav59]

LOL! I really don’t want Hosmer, Santana or Duda. If DD insists on getting one of them, I’d prefer Hosmer slightly over Santana.

 

Even if Hosmer goes for $150M/6 vs Santana at $60M/4?

[Larry Cook]

Even if Hosmer goes for $150M/6 vs Santana at $60M/4?

 

Add in the fact that both received a qo and neither seems like a smart signing,

 

Then in my mind the real question becomes is Duda an upgrade over Moreland.

 

Moreland is the better defender and sadly Moreland is probably better on the bases.

 

Moreland did try to play through a broken big toe and his stats were not that bad.

 

Moreland would probably be cheaper.

 

Unfortunately Moreland did not provide the veteran leadership we needed in the locker room last season.

[Kimmi]

I much prefer a guy who puts the ball in play over a strikeout. In one case he has a chance of gaining some offense advantage, in the other he provides nothing. One of us could stand up there and strike out most of the time. I would stay away from guys who have a high strikeout rate. As I mentioned before, I would prefer a guy like Nunez, who is always a threat at the plate and has some power to a big power hitter who only makes contact once in a blue moon.

 

I get that oldtimer. Put the ball in play and you have a chance of something happening. But that's why I said as long as the OBP is decent. If you have two guys, one who strikes out 5% of the time and the other who strikes out 25% of the time, but both have the same OBP, the strike outs really don't matter.

 

That said, believe me that I get extremely frustrated when a batter strikes out with a man on 3rd with less than 2 outs.

[Kimmi]

Even if Hosmer goes for $150M/6 vs Santana at $60M/4?

 

If Hosmer and Santana are going to cost that much, not to mention the QO, then Duda would probably be the way to go.

[Larry Cook]

If Hosmer and Santana are going to cost that much, not to mention the QO, then Duda would probably be the way to go.

 

If he is healthy. We had a string of walking wounded last season and if we can end that next season, it could be worth a few more wins.

[Nick]

Go big or do nothing.

 

Please don't half ass it.

 

Brentz can DH when not filling in LF. Hanley can play 1B for 130 games. Find a suitable replacement for Pedroia at 2B as he recovers.

 

We really don't need to do anything.

 

Of course I would prefer we trade for Votto and Stanton and then sign Martinez. Don't waste big money on mediocrity. Save the money for later.

[a700hitter]

Daubach never had quite as much power as Duda has.

 

As for the injuries, Duda did miss most of 2016, but he played in a league with no DH. In his other 3 seasons since 2014, he's put up these PAs:

596

554

491

(Note: he has also been platooned at times, so some of the missing PAs were not due to injury. His 1413 PAs vs RHPs places him 128th out of all ML players.)

 

As for streakiness: I'm not one that cares a lot about streaky. Just give me .800. Besides, the data does not support your position.

 

2017:

.927 on April 13th

.926 on July 2nd

(Lowest point: .798 on May 21st)

Still at .901 on August 10th.

Dropped pretty steadily after that to .818 by season's end.

 

Month by month

.931 April

.927 May

.896 June

.901 July

(That's 4 months of very consistent awesome hitting. Not "quick flashes.))

.702 Aug

.622 Sep

 

2015:

.915 April

.948 May (2 months is not a quick flash)

.576 June

.749 july (not bad)

.976 Aug

.961 Sep (another 2 month "quick flash.")

 

2014 saw no month below .708. He had a 2 month streak of .956 and 1.006 in June-July and an .841 in SEP.

 

While Duda's BA has been low (career ,242 and below that from 2016-2017), he still gets on base a lot.

 

On Daubauch, he was a hell of a player for a short period of time. I'd sign him at $6M during his best 4 year stretch (1999-2002). He was a pretty streaky hitter.

 

1999

4 months over .909

2 months at .759

 

2000

1 month at 1.091

1 month at .798

3 months between .720-750

1 at .469

 

2001

2 months over .894

2 months between .843 and 866

2 months between .743 and .785

 

2002

3 months .945-.971

1 month at .879

2 months .529-.614

 

Daubauch 1999-2002 vs Duda 2014-2017

 

Daubauch 1947 PAs

.266 84 234

.342 OBP

.494 SLG

.225 ISO

 

Duda 1813 PAs

.238 94 211

.338 OBP

.480 SLG

.242 ISO

Did you drill down on those numbers on Duda to see if some of those months whether he OPSed at 1.400 for one week and the other 3 weeks he OPSed .550, 600 and .650? I guess that you will have to experience the prolonged futility for yourself. I don’t think the 2017 season is a good indicator. He was consistent while with the Mets in 2017, But he fell off a cliff for an even longer than usual cold spell after the trade.

Edited November 24, 2017 by a700hitter

[Spudboy]

Grab Morrison and move on.

[moonslav59]

Add in the fact that both received a qo and neither seems like a smart signing,

 

Then in my mind the real question becomes is Duda an upgrade over Moreland.

 

Moreland is the better defender and sadly Moreland is probably better on the bases.

 

Moreland did try to play through a broken big toe and his stats were not that bad.

 

Moreland would probably be cheaper.

 

Unfortunately Moreland did not provide the veteran leadership we needed in the locker room last season.

 

My position is to sign someone like Santana or Morrison AND Duda to DH and play some 1B.

 

I could see us signing JD Martinez or trading for Stanton and then going for a cheap 1 year fix at 1B with Duda splitting time with HRam, and Stanton or JD playing DH/4th OF'er.

 

If we end up trading JBJ for a pitcher and using Stanton or JD in LF, I could see Duda being our DH and back-up 1B to HRam.

 

I do not see Duda as the only significant offensive addition.

[moonslav59]

Go big or do nothing.

 

Please don't half ass it.

 

Brentz can DH when not filling in LF. Hanley can play 1B for 130 games. Find a suitable replacement for Pedroia at 2B as he recovers.

 

We really don't need to do anything.

 

Of course I would prefer we trade for Votto and Stanton and then sign Martinez. Don't waste big money on mediocrity. Save the money for later.

 

Well, one year deals like maybe for Duda would allow us to do something :later".

 

I don't like "half ass" either, but I'd like to see us add one big piece and a couple half-ass ones.

 

I don't think we should add a 2Bman until we see how Pedey is recovering, and how Marco looks.

 

Finding a 2Bman mid season should not be that hard, although guys like Nunez are not available every summer.

[moonslav59]

Did you drill down on those numbers on Duda to see if some of those months whether he OPSed at 1.400 for one week and the other 3 weeks he OPSed .550, 600 and .650? I guess that you will have to experience the prolonged futility for yourself. I don’t think the 2017 season is a good indicator. He was consistent while with the Mets. But he fell off a cliff for an even longer than usual cold spell.

 

I looked at the game logs for 2017, and he stayed pretty steady for 4 moths, then he fell the last 2.

 

Here's his cumulative OPS every 1st and 15th of the month. (Note: as the season progresses the numbers go up and down with much more difficulty.)

 

.971

.931

.849

.931

.894

.937

.878

.918

.873

.853

.859

.818

(pretty consistent up to SEP 15th)

 

Now, the 8th and 22nd of every month

.786 (after 4 games)

.931

.931 (missed games from April 20-May 11)

.847

.945

.892

.897

.901

.906

.876

.864

.830

 

Duda played in 127 games this year. How many times did his OPS fall for...

 

9 straight games? 1 (end of SEP, which included one game going down .001 and another .002 with an 0-1 game) (5 for 37)

 

7 straight? 1 (which included a game he went 2 for 5, but his OPS was so high and .800 game OPS hurt him!)

 

6 straight games? 1 (1 for 19 stretch)

 

5 straight games? 1 (0 for 12 stretch that included an 0-1 game)

 

4 straight games? 2

 

3 straight games? 7

 

I just don't see many prolonged slumps in 2017, except for his last 11 games of 2017 (4 for 39). Or, his last 15 games at 6 for 52.

 

Cherry-picking a few others, I found...

 

15 games (Aug 17-SEP 4) 5 for 47 with 4 HRs

 

12 games (APR 16-May 21st with injury in middle and 2 zero for one games)

4 for 33 with 0 HRs (basically a 10 games slump)

 

10 games (Jun7 to Jun 17 including an 0-1 game and a 1 for 2 game with a BB)

3 for 32 (basically a 9 game slump)

 

6 games (JUL2-JUL9)

1 for 16 (hardly enough to call a real slump)

 

5 games (AUG8-AUG 14 including one 0-1 game)

0 for 15 with 2BB

 

Basically, from April to AUG 15th, he was pretty consistent, then he had two very bad stretches sandwiched around a 4 games stretch of going 5 for 14 with 3HRs

 

His last full season before 2017 was 2015. Here's his every 7 or 8 game cumulative OPS...

.855

.916

.896

.851

.834 (7 for 56 or .125 over 11 games, including one at 0 for 1 to go from .896 to .834)

.840

.934

.898

.878

.863

.813

.779

.772 (11 for 70 or .157 with 2 HRs in 20 games to go from from .863 to .772)

.770

.827

.822

.810

.805

.838

 

So, basically 2 bad slumps of 11 and 20 games with the rest being remarkably consistent and good.

 

I've seem much streakier hitters than Duda,

 

 

Edited November 24, 2017 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

If he is healthy. We had a string of walking wounded last season and if we can end that next season, it could be worth a few more wins.

 

Absolutely, health is the key.

[Kimmi]

Go big or do nothing.

Please don't half ass it.

 

Brentz can DH when not filling in LF. Hanley can play 1B for 130 games. Find a suitable replacement for Pedroia at 2B as he recovers.

 

We really don't need to do anything.

 

Of course I would prefer we trade for Votto and Stanton and then sign Martinez. Don't waste big money on mediocrity. Save the money for later.

 

Personally, I would rather do nothing than go big. Not that I'm opposed to adding a big piece. I'm just opposed to adding a big piece for a ridiculous price. You can get pieces that are much better than mediocrity without going big.

[Bellhorn04]

If he is healthy. We had a string of walking wounded last season and if we can end that next season, it could be worth a few more wins.

 

Yes, it's time we did something about this nonsense with players getting injured during the season. I'm fed up with it.

[Bellhorn04]

Go big or do nothing.

 

Please don't half ass it.

 

Brentz can DH when not filling in LF. Hanley can play 1B for 130 games. Find a suitable replacement for Pedroia at 2B as he recovers.

 

We really don't need to do anything.

 

Of course I would prefer we trade for Votto and Stanton and then sign Martinez. Don't waste big money on mediocrity. Save the money for later.

 

But save the money for when and who, specifically?

[notin]

But save the money for when and who, specifically?

 

Manny Machado?

 

Of course by then you get Kimbrel's money back. Pomeranz too...

[jacksonianmarch]

And then you need to find another #2 and elite closer

[notin]

And then you need to find another #2 and elite closer

 

If Price is healthy, we have an upgrade in the rotation already.

 

The role of closer is vastly overrated and no one "needs" an elite closer.

 

In fact, the Sox could probably fill a few holes above and below by dealing Kimbrel. If two months of Chapman is worth Torres, McKinney, Warren and more, then one year of Kimbrel is a valuable trade commodity.

 

The Sox have other experienced closers in the pen already, like Smith and Thornburg. They could deal Kimbrel and then sign Shaw to backfill the setup role....

[Fan_since_Boggs]

1b: Santana

2b: M.Hernandez/Quiroz

SS: Bogaerts (will be replaced by Machado in 2019)

3B: Devers

LF: Benintendi

CF: Bradley

RF: Betts

DH: Duda/Ramirez platoon

 

I've changed my mind on Santana. Sure, he is a few years older than Hosmer and Martinez, but you can also sign him for less money, saving resources for Machado. I also like his patience at the plate and his defense was excellent last year.

 

Another interesting move would be Moustakas for 3b, move Devers to 1b especially if the Red Sox don't believe Devers can stay at 3b long term. In this scenario, the Red Sox would sign Moustakas over Santana.

Edited November 24, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Nick]

I have not seen anything from front office to indicate Devers will not be our permanent 3B. Has anyone?