Sox to hire Alex Cora as manager

[moonslav59]

2016 had:

Career years from Xander, Mookie, JBJ and Sandy Leon (remember how he hit down the stretch)

Pedey's best season since 2011

Papi's best season since 2007

Hanley was healthy all year

Chris Young's best season since 2010

 

That seems to be a very atypical season to me.

 

One should expect several "career years" from younger than prime players as they near their prime years.

 

JBJ went from a .832 OPS in 2015 to .835 as he entered his prime stage. Not atypical.

 

Bogey's OPS went up 26 points from 2015 (age 22) to 2016 (age 23). This is certainly not atypical. Also, his bWAR went down from 4.6 in 2015 to 3.7 in 2016. It went to 2.2 in 2017. Now, that is "atypical".

 

Yes, Betts had his best-by-far season, and Papi had his most wildly successful season in a long time.

 

Leon & Young had less 285 PAs. Holt had more PAs than both of these two and had his worst OPS year than his previous two seasons. You left him off your list.

 

Pedey had a 5.2 WAR year in 2013, so 2016's 5.4 was not very "atypical".

 

To me, the near total decline from 2016 to 2017 by all but Vaz is way more atypical than 2016's success stories.

 

 

[cp176]

Yes having elite power hitters helps get more home runs.

 

However my point was that the patient disciplined approach still works very well even when you don't have them. The Sox still outscored many power hitting teams.

 

Plate discipline was NOT the issue. In fact with no power added to date, discipline is the only offensive weapon they have...

 

Having elite poser hitters helps produce more runs in general I think. Home runs alone is not the issue.

 

Good hitters always have discipline don't you think.

 

You can have great discipline at the plate but if you can't hit the ball on to the outfield grass regularly maybe you shouldn't start playing when you are behind in the count every time you get up.

[moonslav59]

Having elite poser hitters helps produce more runs in general I think. Home runs alone is not the issue.

 

Good hitters always have discipline don't you think.

 

You can have great discipline at the plate but if you can't hit the ball on to the outfield grass regularly maybe you shouldn't start playing when you are behind in the count every time you get up.

 

Taking the first pitch so often bugs the hell out of me, too.

 

Pedey is the worst, and I think he influences others.

 

BTW, in 2017, Pedey had a .668 OPS after starting off 0-1. (Career .716)

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Taking the first pitch so often bugs the hell out of me, too.

 

Pedey is the worst, and I think he influences others.

 

BTW, in 2017, Pedey had a .668 OPS after starting off 0-1. (Career .716)

 

Of course those 0-1 counts include PA's where he swung at the first pitch too.

 

Also, Pedey may have been the 'worst' at taking the first pitch but he also had the highest OBP on the team.

[moonslav59]

Here's an interesting factoid:

 

A Sox player has HR'd 20 or more times only 13 times in the past 5 years.

 

5 in 2016 (38 Papi, 31 Betts, 30 HRam, 26 JBJ, 21 Bogey)

4 in 2017 (24 Betts, 23 HRam, 22 Moreland, 20 Beni)

2 in 2013 (30 Papi & 23 Napoli)

1 in 2015 (37 Papi)

1 in 2014 (35 Papi)

 

Team HRs

208 - 2016

178 - 2013

168 - 2017

161 - 2015

124 - 2014

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Another thing that amuses me about complaints about taking the first pitch is that nobody particularly likes it when the team goes down 1-2-3 on a small number of pitches. Someone will always make a comment like 'Wow, that was fast!' We only really like it when the guy swings and gets a hit.

 

All that said, I don't disagree that being predictable can be a problem and that swinging on the first pitch sometimes is a good idea. I'm pretty sure we'll see a lot more of it next year.

[notin]

Having elite poser hitters helps produce more runs in general I think. Home runs alone is not the issue.

 

Good hitters always have discipline don't you think.

 

You can have great discipline at the plate but if you can't hit the ball on to the outfield grass regularly maybe you shouldn't start playing when you are behind in the count every time you get up.

 

As the Sox were sixth in the AL in runs scored while being absolutely abysmal at hitting home runs, they shouldn't try to change that aspect of their offensive approach. The easiest fix is to add a bat that can provide more home runs.

 

They were pathetic at home runs. Even if they hit 10% more home runs, they would still have been last in the AL. Yet they weren't even close to being the lowest scoring team, because they put people on base. They were sixth in the AL at scoring at 5th in OBP while being 15th in home runs. And the idea appears to be to cut into the OBP, which was carried by their BB% (5th) as opposed to their batting average (9th). And there are numerous other ancillary effects, such as giving our pitchers longer rests while the opposing pitchers work harder.

 

Making this team more aggressive is not a good idea. It's the one thing that worked and it's what Cora wants to fix...

[notin]

Taking the first pitch so often bugs the hell out of me, too.

 

Pedey is the worst, and I think he influences others.

 

BTW, in 2017, Pedey had a .668 OPS after starting off 0-1. (Career .716)

 

 

 

Isn't that stat predicated on the first pitch always leading to an 0-1 count? How was he at 1-0?

[moonslav59]

Of course those 0-1 counts include PA's where he swung at the first pitch too.

 

Also, Pedey may have been the 'worst' at taking the first pitch but he also had the highest OBP on the team.

 

He didn't swing that often, but you are right.

 

Out of 6,743 career PAs, Pedey has only put the ball in play on the first pitch 361 times. He was HBP 6 times. He has an .860 OPS on those PAs. (.337 BA)

 

I'm not sure how to find out how many times he swung at the first pitch, but I'm pretty sure he's near the lowest percent in MLB.

 

[notin]

 

Good hitters always have discipline don't you think.

 

 

 

Mike Greenwell and I would dispute this...

[moonslav59]

Isn't that stat predicated on the first pitch always leading to an 0-1 count? How was he at 1-0?

 

career PAs - after count (OPS)

 

2902 after 1-0 (.916)

3474 after 0-1 (.716)

 

As you can see, he started off 0-1 a lot more than 1-0. I'd like to see the numbers on non-swinging first pitches- how many were strikes vs balls.

[moonslav59]

Mike Greenwell and I would dispute this...

 

So would Adrian Beltre.

[moonslav59]

Another thing that amuses me about complaints about taking the first pitch is that nobody particularly likes it when the team goes down 1-2-3 on a small number of pitches. Someone will always make a comment like 'Wow, that was fast!' We only really like it when the guy swings and gets a hit.

 

All that said, I don't disagree that being predictable can be a problem and that swinging on the first pitch sometimes is a good idea. I'm pretty sure we'll see a lot more of it next year.

 

I don't want us to radically change our philosophy, but we have to keep opposing pitchers honest. It often seems like the most hittable pitch throw in many PAs was the first pitch thrown, and we took far too many of those pitches.

 

It reminds me of the choice to bunt or not bunt. I hate bunting, but if you don't do it a few times, the opposing teams will start playing you not to bunt and move back, thereby lessening your chances for a hit when you swing away.

 

Keep the opponents guessing.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It's a lot like rock-paper-scissors when you get down to it.

[cp176]

Mike Greenwell and I would dispute this...

 

Oh for god's sake Notin - stick with your stats. lol I could list a ton of guys that were very disciplined at the plate who more than covered the strike zone. Any good hitter has to have discipline at home plate. But I'll play - roberto clemente!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Vladimir Guerrero would swing at anything.

[cp176]

As the Sox were sixth in the AL in runs scored while being absolutely abysmal at hitting home runs, they shouldn't try to change that aspect of their offensive approach. The easiest fix is to add a bat that can provide more home runs.

 

They were pathetic at home runs. Even if they hit 10% more home runs, they would still have been last in the AL. Yet they weren't even close to being the lowest scoring team, because they put people on base. They were sixth in the AL at scoring at 5th in OBP while being 15th in home runs. And the idea appears to be to cut into the OBP, which was carried by their BB% (5th) as opposed to their batting average (9th). And there are numerous other ancillary effects, such as giving our pitchers longer rests while the opposing pitchers work harder.

 

Making this team more aggressive is not a good idea. It's the one thing that worked and it's what Cora wants to fix...

 

You make some very good points Notin for sure but quite often you seem to miss the points others are making. This team needs to stray a bit from an extremely predictable group of hitters regardless of what your statistics tell you. One mold does not fit. The goal I don't think is to make the team more aggressive as to trying to give weaker hitters a better opportunity to hit the ball. Plus the fact that this entire philosophy if you will was utilized to try to get an opposing team's starting pitcher out of the game. Clearly not as important these days. It has gone the way of Charlie Lau's method of hitting. I'm old school but even I will let go of things that don't really work anymore.

[cp176]

Vladimir Guerrero would swing at anything.

 

 

but saying that a hitter of his accomplishments did not have some plate discipline is a joke.

[cp176]

Yogi Berra

[Bellhorn04]

Plus the fact that this entire philosophy if you will was utilized to try to get an opposing team's starting pitcher out of the game. Clearly not as important these days.

 

In the regular season, getting the opposing team's starting pitcher out of the game after 5 innings or so should still give you a good advantage. Not many teams can cover 4 innings with all good relievers, certainly not on a consistent basis.

 

I really think a more balanced approach is the best - patient, but not too predictable.

[cp176]

In the regular season, getting the opposing team's starting pitcher out of the game after 5 innings or so should still give you a good advantage. Not many teams can cover 4 innings with all good relievers, certainly not on a consistent basis.

 

I really think a more balanced approach is the best - patient, but not too predictable.

 

I think that what you are saying here agrees with what I am saying.

[notin]

In the regular season, getting the opposing team's starting pitcher out of the game after 5 innings or so should still give you a good advantage. Not many teams can cover 4 innings with all good relievers, certainly not on a consistent basis.

 

I really think a more balanced approach is the best - patient, but not too predictable.

 

Its never been an exclusive"don't swing until you have two strikes" little league approach

[moonslav59]

You make some very good points Notin for sure but quite often you seem to miss the points others are making. This team needs to stray a bit from an extremely predictable group of hitters regardless of what your statistics tell you. One mold does not fit. The goal I don't think is to make the team more aggressive as to trying to give weaker hitters a better opportunity to hit the ball. Plus the fact that this entire philosophy if you will was utilized to try to get an opposing team's starting pitcher out of the game. Clearly not as important these days. It has gone the way of Charlie Lau's method of hitting. I'm old school but even I will let go of things that don't really work anymore.

 

I think you hit on something here.

 

It's one reason why I liked having Beltre in the middle of a line-up full of patient, disciplined hitters. It messes up the pitcher.

 

It seems like our current hitters are all from pretty much the same mold. We are too predictable and too similar in approach.

 

Of course, we should not abandon the philosophy that OBP is the single best predictor or scoring more runs, but it helps to have at least one masher among all the OBP guys, especially in a day and age where mashing is becoming the standard.

 

We don't have to choose either or. We can keep the patient OBP batters and just add one or two power guys and have the best of both worlds. Plus, it's not like JD has a horrible OBP.

[moonslav59]

Vladimir Guerrero would swing at anything.

 

When I mentioned Beltre, I thought of Vlad, too.

[cp176]

I think you hit on something here.

 

It's one reason why I liked having Beltre in the middle of a line-up full of patient, disciplined hitters. It messes up the pitcher.

 

It seems like our current hitters are all from pretty much the same mold. We are too predictable and too similar in approach.

 

Of course, we should not abandon the philosophy that OBP is the single best predictor or scoring more runs, but it helps to have at least one masher among all the OBP guys, especially in a day and age where mashing is becoming the standard.

 

We don't have to choose either or. We can keep the patient OBP batters and just add one or two power guys and have the best of both worlds. Plus, it's not like JD has a horrible OBP.

 

IMO - exactly right. Too much of one thing usually is never a real good thing. it is very important to be patient with respect to hitting in general. it is just that some need to be more patient than others.

[notin]

Vladimir Guerrero would swing at anything.

 

 

Apparently including a cop at one time...

[Behindenemylines]

I think as a hitter you don’t want to be predictable. A lot depends on who is pitching and how they are pitching. If a pitcher knows that a hitter is always taking the first pitch it changes their approach. If a hitter mixes it up then becomes unpredictable and harder to pitch to. I know that with teams improving bullpens running up the pitch count is not as important.

[mvp 78]

@EvanDrellich

 

Alex Cora on (not) giving up on lefty hitters vs. lefties: "Throughout the minor leagues, you face lefties and righties, and all of a sudden your first month in the big leagues and you can’t hit lefties. I never got that."

[moonslav59]

@EvanDrellich

 

Alex Cora on (not) giving up on lefty hitters vs. lefties: "Throughout the minor leagues, you face lefties and righties, and all of a sudden your first month in the big leagues and you can’t hit lefties. I never got that."

 

Well, for Beni, it's been way more than a month.

[mvp 78]

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/alex-cora-wants-see-quick-changes-boston-red-sox-hitting-approach?amp&__twitter_impression=true

 

The Sox of yore strove to work counts for the sake of booting a starter out of the game early. A higher pitch count made it easier to get into a presumably weaker bullpen.

 

The difference now is manifold. For one, relievers are simply better.

 

“We used to wait them out. But that was 10 years ago, 13 years ago,” Cora said Thursday morning, before the Red Sox first exhibition game of the spring. “It's been a while. It's a different game. I had a conversation with Mikey [Lowell] about that. I was like, ‘Mikey, the starters, they go four or five innings.’

 

“[They don’t] bring in the 87-88 [mph] cutter/sinker/breaking ball guy. Now the guy in the sixth inning is 97 with a great off-speed pitch, secondary pitch. I'm a big believer when you get to that starter, if you can get him right away, get him. Either he'll get you or you'll get him.”

 

And everyone is very directly trying to "get” one another. Attack plans are both more deliberate and more easily accessible these days. The proliferation of analytics has led to better scouting reports. Waste pitches may still be thrown with some sense of purpose, but there is a trend toward maximizing efficiency. See Chris Sale, who has talked a lot about the need to reduce wasted pitches -- not necessarily the same as a purposeful pitch outside of the zone , but still in the same vein. You don't necessarily need a fastball to set up your amazing curveball, or may not need it as frequently.

 

The best offense in the majors in 2017 belonged to the world champion Astros, and they saw the second fewest pitches per plate appearance of anyone in the majors, 3.78. Cora was their bench coach.

 

Now, you can still have a great offense and work counts. The team the Astros beat in the American League Championship Series, the Yankees, had 3.98 pitches per plate appearance in the regular season, the second-most. The Red Sox were seventh, at 3.94.

 

Another effect rooted in the same causes: Lineup construction doesn’t mean quite as much. A left-right balance may be helpful throughout the regular season, at least, but it doesn’t have to drive the boat.

 

“It doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter,” Cora said. “You put the best lineup out there. I hate to bring up last year, because I want turn the page, but you saw what happened at the end. We had five righties [in the Astros lineup consecutively], it didn’t matter. If you can hit, you can hit.

 

“They’re good hitters. Throughout the minor leagues, you face lefties and righties and all of a sudden, your first month in the big leagues and you can’t hit lefties. I never got that. Probably have to make that decision later on, but it doesn’t matter.”

 

Lineup protection isn’t a priority, either, from the sound of it.

 

“I believe in lineup construction, that’s most important,” Cora said recently. “You’ve got David [Ortiz] and Manny [Ramirez], you pick your poison. You’ve got Miguel [Cabrera] and Victor [Martinez], you pick your poison. You decide when to challenge who at certain times. But I think it’s making that lineup long enough to keep putting pressure on the opposition.

 

“The way the league is pitching sometimes, it doesn’t matter who is hitting behind you. It’s a matter of how they attack you. There are certain teams [where] this is how you’re going to attack this guy, regardless of the situation, and they’re going to go there. If they walk him, they walk him. And if they strike him out, they strike him out. If they put together a good at-bat and they get on base, so be it. It’s a lot different because of the way stats are attacking guys. So for me, it’s all about construction."