Mookie, Petey and the First Pitch (Think Altuve)

[mvp 78]

His OPS when going down 0-1 was 668 in 2017. I believe your stats are misleading as it only references if he makes contact on an 0-1 pitch. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=pedrodu01&year=2017&t=b You need to look at the "after 0-1" stats.

[illinoisredsox]

His OPS when going down 0-1 was 668 in 2017. I believe your stats are misleading as it only references if he makes contact on an 0-1 pitch. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=pedrodu01&year=2017&t=b You need to look at the "after 0-1" stats.

 

May I assume you will disparage Mr. Betts (OPS of .670 after an 0-1 count this season) and Señor Ramirez (.666) with equal vigor?

[mvp 78]

May I assume you will disparage Mr. Betts (OPS of .670 after an 0-1 count this season) and Señor Ramirez (.666) with equal vigor?

 

Sure. Anyone who takes a middle middle pitch to go down 0-1 is an idiot. Betts only swings at 6.8% of first pitches. It's not good enough.

 

Hanley at least swings 10% of the time. Hanley's issues are of another variety.

 

I poke at Pedroia because he seems to be the worst offender on the team. He's less likely to swing on the first pitch than anyone else in the clubhouse.

[mvp 78]

Devers swings at 14% of the first pitches (938 OPS). That's the approach I favor.

[mvp 78]

The problem is that when you only swing at 5% of the first pitches, the other team will no longer nibble on 0-0 and will just get an easy strike. You are better off swinging at a middle middle first pitch than just automatically going down 0-1.

[illinoisredsox]

Sure. Anyone who takes a middle middle pitch to go down 0-1 is an idiot. Betts only swings at 6.8% of first pitches. It's not good enough.

 

Hanley at least swings 10% of the time. Hanley's issues are of another variety.

 

I poke at Pedroia because he seems to be the worst offender on the team. He's less likely to swing on the first pitch than anyone else in the clubhouse.

 

Actually, using your stats, Bogaerts was slightly less likely to "swing" at the first pitch (Bogies was at 4.6%, Pedroia 4.75%). I put swing in quotes because those stats only reflect how often an outcome results from the first pitch (how often the ball is put into play, excluding HBP). They do not reflect if a batter swung and missed on the first pitch or fouled it off. Anecdotally, those probably didn't alter the numbers very much. No hard data to back that up, and I'm not going in and review every play-by-play to find out.

 

The overall point remains, they are not doing themselves any big favors by taking virtually every first pitch. I don't think anyone is calling for a major overhaul, just a tweak in the thought process. If you get a particular pitch in a particular spot on the first one, hammer it. Otherwise, let it go. Make the pitcher adjust and try for that perfect strike (the kind you don;t want to swing at unless you have 2 strikes). That and learn to foul off tough 2 strike pitches.

Edited October 18, 2017 by illinoisredsox

[mvp 78]

Actually, using your stats, Bogaerts was slightly less likely to "swing" at the first pitch (Bogies was at 4.6%, Pedroia 4.75%). I put swing in quotes because those stats only reflect how often an outcome results from the first pitch (how often the ball is put into play, excluding HBP). They do not reflect if a batter swung and missed on the first pitch or fouled it off. Anecdotally, those probably didn't alter the numbers very much. No hard data to back that up, and I'm not going in and review every play-by-play to find out.

 

The overall point remains, they are not doing themselves any big favors by taking virtually every first pitch. I don't think anyone is calling for a major overhaul, just a tweak in the thought process. If you get a particular pitch in a particular spot on the first one, hammer it. Otherwise, let it go. Make the pitcher adjust and try for that perfect strike (the kind you don;t want to swing at unless you have 2 strikes). That and learn to foul off tough 2 strike pitches.

 

I'm not a huge Bogey fan either. I think most people on here have a perspective that Bogey needs to fix his approach, which I agree with. People on here tend to be less critical of gritty Pedroia tho.

[mvp 78]

Xander was awful swinging at the first pitch this year, but has a career 962 OPS when doing so. Why not swing more? He has a career swing rate of 7%, while Pedroia is at 5%. Something was definitely wrong with Bogey this year.

[Bellhorn04]

Xander was awful swinging at the first pitch this year, but has a career 962 OPS when doing so.

 

Once again that only includes the PA's where he put the first pitch in play, correct, not every PA where he swung at the first pitch.

[mvp 78]

Once again that only includes the PA's where he put the first pitch in play, correct, not every PA where he swung at the first pitch.

 

Maybe? Probably? But the only thing I'm arguing for is to swing at middle middle pitches, which should be put in play more often than not. I don't want guys automatically giving up on the first pitch.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not a huge Bogey fan either. I think most people on here have a perspective that Bogey needs to fix his approach, which I agree with. People on here tend to be less critical of gritty Pedroia tho.

 

In spite of a hideous slump the last couple of weeks of the season, Pedroia still ended up with the highest OBP on the team by a good margin. That's one reason I'm not terribly inclined to knock his plate approach.

[mvp 78]

In spite of a hideous slump the last couple of weeks of the season, Pedroia still ended up with the highest OBP on the team by a good margin. That's one reason I'm not terribly inclined to knock his plate approach.

 

If he goes down 0-1, his OBP tanks tho?

[illinoisredsox]

If he goes down 0-1, his OBP tanks tho?

 

His OPS when putting the first pitch into play was .550. Acknowledging that neither is good, which would you rather have, his OPS on 0-0 or the one on 0-1?

[mvp 78]

His OPS when putting the first pitch into play was .550. Acknowledging that neither is good, which would you rather have, his OPS on 0-0 or the one on 0-1?

 

In 2017 it was. How's that career number tho?

[illinoisredsox]

In 2017 it was. How's that career number tho?

 

Nice move of the goalposts. You cited THIS year's after 0-1 OPS, so I cited THIS year's first pitch OPS. If you want to post the numbers for his career, go ahead.

 

We get it, you dislike Pedroia intensely. Really, we get it. I think everyone here acknowledges he's not the player he once was and never will be again. But right now, he's still the best all-around 2nd baseman on the roster, and he's not going anywhere in 2018 unless he chooses to retire.

 

Good day.

[mvp 78]

Nice move of the goalposts. You cited THIS year's after 0-1 OPS, so I cited THIS year's first pitch OPS. If you want to post the numbers for his career, go ahead.

 

We get it, you dislike Pedroia intensely. Really, we get it. I think everyone here acknowledges he's not the player he once was and never will be again. But right now, he's still the best all-around 2nd baseman on the roster, and he's not going anywhere in 2018 unless he chooses to retire.

 

Good day.

 

I'm not even sure where your goalposts were.

 

Good day.

[moonslav59]

Pedroia

 

6743 career PAs

 

When he swings at and puts the ball in play, his OPS is ..

 

.860 in just 367 PAs (under 5% of first pitches)

 

 

He has 3474 PAs with on 0-1 count, so we can surmise he swung and missed or took the first pitch for a strike 53% of the time.

 

He took the first pitch for a ball 2902 times 43% of the time.

 

Once he goes to 1-0, he ends up at a .916 OPS.

 

Once he goes to 0-2, he ends up at a .716 OPS.

 

You can't just look at his numbers with an 0-0 count. By taking the first pitch so often, he sets in motion another dynamic that has to be figured into the data, not just the .860 OPS when he rarely decides to swing AND makes contact.

 

Look at it this way, when the first pitch is throw for a strike (called or swung at) or swung at and put in play, Pedey puts the ball in play for just 11% of those incidents 367/3841 or less than 10% of the time.

 

(367+3474=3841)

 

I'm no math expert, so correct me, if I am wrong.

 

[mvp 78]

If he hits 860 on the first pitch, maybe he should swing more at the middle middle pitches he lets go by?

[moonslav59]

If he hits 860 on the first pitch, maybe he should swing more at the middle middle pitches he lets go by?

 

I just want him to swing enough to keep the pitchers "honest". I don't really want to mess up his approach. It's worked for years.

 

I'm also afraid that maybe his approach has caused some of his teammates to emulate his approach to their detriment.

[mvp 78]

I just want him to swing enough to keep the pitchers "honest". I don't really want to mess up his approach. It's worked for years.

 

I'm also afraid that maybe his approach has caused some of his teammates to emulate his approach to their detriment.

 

Is swinging once every 20 at bats enough to keep them honest?