A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[mvp 78]

Anyone agreeing in 2018 to pay a ballplayer who will be 37 years old in 6 years nearly 30 million in that 6th year is fiscally irresponsible.

 

I could see the case being made for a ballclub that needs a star with drawing power to increase ticket sales, but that's not an issue the Sox have.

[OH FOY]

Sox need to score 50 more runs next season from season past, if Pitching is about the same. That's it. Guys on team can do that. Don't need to spend big cash for that. See how Hanley's surgery works out.

[harmony]

Anyone agreeing in 2018 to pay a ballplayer who will be 37 years old in 6 years nearly 30 million in that 6th year is fiscally irresponsible.

Good point.

 

Absent an opt-out, David Price will be paid $32 million in 2022, the year the left-hander turns 37 in August.

[oldtimer]

Good point.

 

Absent an opt-out, David Price will be paid $32 million in 2022, the year the left-hander turns 37 in August.

 

Yes and that also was irresponsible. Has it turned out well?

[Bellhorn04]

Good point.

 

Absent an opt-out, David Price will be paid $32 million in 2022, the year the left-hander turns 37 in August.

 

Any idea how much the M's are paying Cano after he turns 37?

[Bellhorn04]

Also, major league baseball itself is fiscally irresponsible.

[harmony]

Any idea how much the M's are paying Cano after he turns 37?

Four years at $24 million annually.

 

Given their contracts, the Mariners would never trade Cano for David Price.

 

Seattle can only hope that Cano ages as well as his buddy David Ortiz:

 

https://nesn.com/2016/08/robinson-cano-on-big-brother-david-ortiz-every-player-would-love-to-have-his-career/

Edited January 12, 2018 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

Four years at $24 million annually.

 

Given their contracts, the Mariners would never trade Cano for David Price.

 

Yes, Cano's contract is probably marginally less irresponsible.

[a700hitter]

Maybe, but why would someone suddenly realize they have an OF need and that kind of money to spend?

 

The only reason I could see a late bidder enter the market, is if a team thought JD was going to get $150M/6 and now realizes the top bid is just $125M/5 and now wants in. How many teams fit that mold? (None?)

 

Another reason could be some key player gets hurt in a motorcycle accident or whatever in the next few weeks.

 

It could just be the Sox vs the Jays.

You misunderstood what I meant. I wasn’t talking about a late bidder. I was saying that if he has one other serious suitor at the moment, and Boras plays a waiting game, we could really have our offseason plans trashed. I would not find it hard to believe that there is one other bidder or even multiple bidders for him at the moment.

[OH FOY]

23 million for Donaldson, Jays avoid arbitration. Next year ought to be a doozy, for FA's.

[moonslav59]

If DD has a price and sticks to it, I can't blame him if he gets outbid. He knows the payroll budget much better than any of us.

 

Yes, I agree, and it also goes beyond budget limits. It has to do with how much of an overpay is acceptable and how much value is projected from JD.

[moonslav59]

You misunderstood what I meant. I wasn’t talking about a late bidder. I was saying that if he has one other serious suitor at the moment, and Boras plays a waiting game, we could really have our offseason plans trashed. I would not find it hard to believe that there is one other bidder or even multiple bidders for him at the moment.

 

Gotcha.

 

I doubt DD lets all his plan Bs and Cs sign elsewhere as he waits on JD. Since nobody is signing now, there's no sense of urgency. Once the dominoes begin to fall, a timed final offer may be needed.

[Elktonnick]

Also, major league baseball itself is fiscally irresponsible.

 

The new breed of data driven baseball executives are becoming increasingly more skeptical of long term contracts especially those where the ballplayer will be older than 35 in the latter years of the deal. The game is changing in many ways more dramatically and rapidly than most players, agents and club executives had anticipated.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Instead of waiting around for JD Martinez, signing Bruce for the DH role wouldn't have been a terrible plan B strategy. 3 years, only 39 million, no long term commitment, a contract that can easily be moved. In contrast, JD Martinez wants 5 or 6 years with a lot more money. Once again, Dombrowski fails to impress in his decision making. He appears to get fixated on certain players and must have those players even if an overpay is necessary.

 

True, he hasn't overpaid for Martinez yet, but if there is a better bargain on the market why not take it and say goodbye to the Martinez negotiations? Such a move would also put the Red Sox in a better position to spend on Machado or Harper next year.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

The new breed of data driven baseball executives are becoming increasingly more skeptical of long term contracts especially those where the ballplayer will be older than 35 in the latter years of the deal. The game is changing in many ways more dramatically and rapidly than most players, agents and club executives had anticipated.

 

The games is not changing as much as the ways we evaluate player value, and now projected player value.

 

[moonslav59]

Instead of waiting around for JD Martinez, signing Bruce for the DH role wouldn't have been a terrible plan B strategy. 3 years, only 39 million, no long term commitment, a contract that can easily be moved. In contrast, JD Martinez wants 5 or 6 years with a lot more money. Once again, Dombrowski fails to impress in his decision making. He appears to get fixated on certain players and must have those players even if an overpay is necessary.

 

True, he hasn't overpaid for Martinez yet, but if there is a better bargain on the market why not take it and say goodbye to the Martinez negotiations? Such a move would also put the Red Sox in a better position to spend on Machado or Harper next year.

 

I had little faith in Bruce.

 

He's had a couple decent seasons recently .832 and .815, but not really all that great.

 

Yes, the 36 and 33 HRs the last two season would fill that clean-up slot nicely. Yes, $39M/3 beats the hell out of $125M/5.

 

I just look back on 2014 (.654) and 2015 (.729) and he scares the hell out of me!

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Martinez is clearly a better offensive player Bruce, but if you can save around 100 million by signing Bruce, I'm very open to the idea. They are the same age--I also like the idea of a 3 year commitment to Bruce versus a 5 or 6 year commitment to Martinez. There really isn't a lot downside to Bruce's contract. When he declines due to age, he will be long gone. A Bruce and Hanley platoon at DH might be good enough for 2018 and then next year that 100 million saved goes toward Machado or Harper.

 

I also wonder if Martinez is really a "winning" player. He isn't satisfied with 120 million, or whatever lucrative offer is out there, and instead wants 180 million and is willing to skip part of spring training to get the contract he wants. An organization might not want to pursue players like that--it creates a culture that is arguably antithetical to winning.

 

Of course, Dombrowski will sign Martinez even if he has to overpay. He has overpaid for pretty much every asset he has acquired (as Red Sox President) and so why stop now.....

Edited January 12, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

Instead of waiting around for JD Martinez, signing Bruce for the DH role wouldn't have been a terrible plan B strategy. 3 years, only 39 million, no long term commitment, a contract that can easily be moved. In contrast, JD Martinez wants 5 or 6 years with a lot more money. Once again, Dombrowski fails to impress in his decision making. He appears to get fixated on certain players and must have those players even if an overpay is necessary.

 

True, he hasn't overpaid for Martinez yet, but if there is a better bargain on the market why not take it and say goodbye to the Martinez negotiations? Such a move would also put the Red Sox in a better position to spend on Machado or Harper next year.

 

Bruce hit lefty. I think the DH position needs to be filled by a righty who can sub in the OF once in a while for depth.

[mvp 78]

I also wonder if Martinez is really a "winning" player. He isn't satisfied with 120 million, or whatever lucrative offer is out there, and instead wants 180 million and is willing to skip part of spring training to get the contract he wants. An organization might not want to pursue players like that--it creates a culture that is arguably antithetical to winning.

 

Um....

[a700hitter]

Gotcha.

 

I doubt DD lets all his plan Bs and Cs sign elsewhere as he waits on JD. Since nobody is signing now, there's no sense of urgency. Once the dominoes begin to fall, a timed final offer may be needed.

The waiting game of Boras is going to make the timing of his alternative plans a little tricky and unpredictable.

[mvp 78]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-martinezs-potential-for-falling-off-a-cliff/

 

Here's a long article from the Tribune. Doesn't say much of anything of note tho. Makes a case that he should be worth about $150M.

 

If you want to take the contract down to six years, then the number comes back at $150 million. Scott Boras might be looking for that extra year, but that year shouldn’t tack on another $25 million to $30 million. Martinez is unlikely to make up for that last year with his production in the first few.

 

Keep in mind, I’ve used only hitting comps to arrive at these numbers. For the most part, baserunning and fielding do not favor Martinez. We don’t have to ignore those two aspects of the game to get J.D. Martinez his $150 million, but we have to discount how bad the numbers make Martinez look. He can be a below-average baserunner and defender and still return a $150 million investment. He just can’t be as bad as his numbers last season or over the course of his career indicate. I think it is fair to expect two more really good seasons from Martinez. After that, the range of outcomes is enormous. Expecting good production in 2020 is a risk that any signing club is going to have to take.

[moonslav59]

The waiting game of Boras is going to make the timing of his alternative plans a little tricky and unpredictable.

 

Agrred. Once the big dominoes start to fall, DD may have to act quickly, which may include asking another player to wait to sign while he then gives JD a time limit- take it or leave it.

[mvp 78]

Agrred. Once the big dominoes start to fall, DD may have to act quickly, which may include asking another player to wait to sign while he then gives JD a time limit- take it or leave it.

 

This is why I think DD should start sending smoke signals that he is interested in other bats.

[harmony]

This is why I think DD should start sending smoke signals that he is interested in other bats.

Dave Dombrowski would be remiss if he hasn't done that since the start of the offseason.

 

Red Sox fans may be obsessed with J.D. Martinez but I suspect the Boston front office has been surveying the entire market all along.

[mvp 78]

Dave Dombrowski would be remiss if he hasn't done that since the start of the offseason.

 

Red Sox fans may be obsessed with J.D. Martinez but I suspect the Boston front office has been surveying the entire market all along.

 

I'm sure they are surveying the field, but I think they need to start flying players to Boston to get JD worried.

[harmony]

I'm sure they are surveying the field, but I think they need to start flying players to Boston to get JD worried.

May have already happened.

 

The agency community is fairly small and insiders know more about ongoing negotiations than the general public does.

 

For all I know J.D. Martinez has rejected a Red Sox offer and the parties have gone their separate ways.

 

Or not.

[mvp 78]

May have already happened.

 

The agency community is fairly small and insiders know more about ongoing negotiations than the general public does.

 

For all I know J.D. Martinez has rejected a Red Sox offer and the parties have gone their separate ways.

 

Or not.

 

If that happened, we'd know about it. s***, if all the "Gerald Green is at Logan" sightings on Twitter are any indication, I don't think they'd be able to sneak LoMo or Duda through security.

[Elktonnick]

The games is not changing as much as the ways we evaluate player value, and now projected player value.

 

 

Huh! Both the change in the way the game is being played i.e more emphasis on relief pitching along with a more aggressive approach toward hitting are interconnected as is the projection of future value. To say one is changing more rapidly than the other is a distinction without a difference since there is a direct correlation between the two coincident to the arrival of the new breed of younger more data driven baseball executives.

[Kimmi]

He's eyeing to be ready, but he won't be. Players aren't the best barometer for their own timetable (i.e. remember Price's magically healing arm).

 

I agree that being ready by Opening Day is a bit optimistic, but this does give me reason to believe that he'll be back sooner than originally expected.

[Kimmi]

Many on this forum assume that the Red Sox have made the best offer to J.D. Martinez and that only a "late bidder" can top that offer.

 

I suspect Martinez has received multiple offers and that the reported Red Sox offer is not the best (or perhaps even the second-best). Martinez and Boras, sensing that the Sox are under the most pressure to sign the top free agent hitter, may be holding out to see whether the Red Sox will top the best offer.

 

Martinez may be waiting on the Red Sox as opposed to the Sox waiting on Martinez.

 

It's possible, but I have a difficult time believing that the Red Sox do not have the best offer out there as far as money is concerned. If there is another team that has offered 6 years, then I hope Dombrowski doesn't try to top it. But by all accounts, that is what JD is waiting for - that 6th year.

 

If it's just a matter of increasing the AAV on 5 years to top another team's offer, I think Dombrowski would have already done that, within reason.