A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Kimmi]

Good example.

 

Robinson Cano has posted 16.4 fWAR, valued at $129.5 million, in the first four years of his 10-year, $240 million contract with Seattle. More importantly, Cano has not led the Mariners to their first postseason berth since 2001.

 

Seattle fans can only hope that Cano ages as well as David Ortiz did.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/like-a-big-brother-robinson-cano-sad-to-see-david-ortiz-retire/

 

David Schoenfield

‏Verified account @dschoenfield

9m9 minutes ago

 

Now that the Bills made the playoffs, the longest playoff drought in American team sports ... the Mariners.

[Kimmi]

I agree that Holt likely makes the opening day 25 man roster, but with a new manager, maybe he doesn't.

 

I'm not so sure Marrero is so good that we can't afford to DFA him, but then again, is Holt that good that we can't afford to keep infield depth by starting him in AAA and keeping Marrero around?

 

Same can be said about Swihart. His ability to catch makes him a worthy choice as a 25 man roster player. We can afford to PH for Vaz or Leon in the middle innings, if needed.

 

If Swihart can play LF, maybe he knocks Brentz off the roster. If he can play 1B, maybe trading HRam becomes an option.

 

Some interesting choices, but nothing earth-shattering, if we have to let Brentz, Marrero or Swihart go., of if we keep Holt in AAA a little while.

 

There's also the phantom DL in play.

 

No, none of the choices is earth shattering, but the thing is, you just never know who might make an impact as a bench player. The more options you can have available, the better off you are. If it's up to me, I'm sending the guys with options to AAA and giving the other guys a legitimate look before possibly DFAing them.

[notin]

If you are out of options, you cannot start the year in the minors. There is no 25 man roster until opening day. All players not making the 25 man roster are essentially, sent to the minors. Those without options can be claimed by other teams.

 

Yes.

 

All players on the 40-man roster are considered major leaguers. Options allow teams to send 15 of them to the minors...

[a700hitter]

If you are out of options, you cannot start the year in the minors. There is no 25 man roster until opening day. All players not making the 25 man roster are essentially, sent to the minors. Those without options can be claimed by other teams.

Got it.

[moonslav59]

No, none of the choices is earth shattering, but the thing is, you just never know who might make an impact as a bench player. The more options you can have available, the better off you are. If it's up to me, I'm sending the guys with options to AAA and giving the other guys a legitimate look before possibly DFAing them.

 

I agree. To me, as of now, Marco is the starting 2Bman and our 4 man bench is Leon, Swihart, Marrero and Brentz. Holt starts in AAA.

 

If we sign JD and keep HRam and JBJ, I'd try to trade Brentz, phantom DL him or eventually DFA him over Swihart or Marrero. However, if Lin and Quiroz look good, I wouldn't be upset, if Marrero ends up as the odd man out at some point.

[harmony]

David Schoenfield

‏Verified account @dschoenfield

9m9 minutes ago

 

Now that the Bills made the playoffs, the longest playoff drought in American team sports ... the Mariners.

I posted that to a Mariner forum today.

[Kimmi]

I posted that to a Mariner forum today.

 

You could always become a Red Sox fan.

[harmony]

You could always become a Red Sox fan.

And miss the Mariners ending the postseason drought?

[Bellhorn04]

David Schoenfield

‏Verified account @dschoenfield

9m9 minutes ago

 

Now that the Bills made the playoffs, the longest playoff drought in American team sports ... the Mariners.

 

And that, of course, is in addition to the Mariners being one of the only MLB teams to have never played in the World Series.

 

Sorry, harmony.

[Bellhorn04]

And miss the Mariners ending the postseason drought?

 

You are a good sport about it.

 

Have you ever had one of your favorite sports teams win it all?

[notin]

And that, of course, is in addition to the Mariners being one of the only MLB teams to have never played in the World Series.

 

Sorry, harmony.

 

One of two teams, I believe. And the only one in the American League...

 

Nationals/Expos are the other.

 

Am I forgetting anyone?

[moonslav59]

And miss the Mariners ending the postseason drought?

 

Reminds me of my feelings when my childhood team, the Milwaukee Brewers traded my favorite player, Tommy Harper, to the Red Sox at the same time my family moved from right next to County Stadium to Portland, Maine. I switched to being a Red Sox fan, then watched anxiously as the Brewers almost one a championship in 1982. They lost 4 games to 3 vs STL after leading 3 games to 2.

 

I'm glad I switched.

 

(BTW, I'm still a Bucks and Packer fan.)

[harmony]

You are a good sport about it.

 

Have you ever had one of your favorite sports teams win it all?

I was a hard-core Denver Broncos fan for 22 years but lost interest in the NFL altogether after the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in 1997-98.

 

The university where I attended graduate school and law school won NCAA football championships after I left. The school nearly won national football titles when I was there but I never fully embraced the team because I prefer underdogs.

 

Such as the Seattle Mariners.

 

I moved to the Pacific Northwest in 1994 a few weeks before the strike ended that MLB season. The following year I had Mariner radio broadcasts on as background noise for weeks as I studied for an exam. The M's stormed from 13 games back on August 2 to earn their first-ever postseason berth before toppling the Yankees in a dramatic AL Divisional Series (I was rejuvenated by the extra-inning, series-winning hit by Edgar Martinez on my 40th birthday).

 

The Mariners advanced to the postseason in four of my first seven years as an M's fan but have not been back since. Fortunately I do not have a success void yearning to be filled by the on-field success of my favorite team.

 

I've probably written too much.

[Bellhorn04]

Fortunately I do not have a success void yearning to be filled by the on-field success of my favorite team.

 

Before 2004 I had a huge success void that needed to be filled by the Red Sox finally winning it.

[notin]

Before 2004 I had a huge success void that needed to be filled by the Red Sox finally winning it.

 

Back when we all ended a lot of sentences with the phrase "just once before I die"

[moonslav59]

Before 2004 I had a huge success void that needed to be filled by the Red Sox finally winning it.

 

2004 was magical.

 

I'd gone over 30 years never experiencing a championship winning baseball team.

 

My family moved to Milwaukee in the mid 60's, so I was able to cheer for two Packer championship teams and one Milwaukee Bucks championship (Lew Alcindor). A long stretch of futility for all sports followed until a third string QB named Joe Montana led my Fighting Irish to a championship over the Earl Cambell-led Longhorns.

 

My Packers broke the professional drought, finally, but the Red Sox win in 2004 eclipsed all others and then some.

 

[moonslav59]

How about this?

 

Sign JD Martinez

 

Trade

JBJ (projected $6M arb and then 2 more arb years)

ERod (projected $4M arb and then 3 more arb years)

Sam Travis or Josh Ockimey

 

For

Danny Duffy (18:$14M, 19:$15.25M, 20:$15.25M, 21:$15.5M)

Scott Alexander LHP (27 y/o RP'er with 4 years of control --including 3 arbs)

 

Luxury cost:

2018-2021: $13M

 

 

[oldtimer]

How about this?

 

Sign JD Martinez

 

Trade

JBJ (projected $6M arb and then 2 more arb years)

ERod (projected $4M arb and then 3 more arb years)

Sam Travis or Josh Ockimey

 

For

Danny Duffy (18:$14M, 19:$15.25M, 20:$15.25M, 21:$15.5M)

Scott Alexander LHP (27 y/o RP'er with 4 years of control --including 3 arbs)

 

Luxury cost:

2018-2021: $13M

 

 

 

That is an excellent wish list but adds about $38 mil to the luxury cap line by my estimates. Could we afford it? We lose a top notch defensive outfielder, a high potential left hander and a couple of decent prospects in the deal but you do have to give something to get something in return.

 

You know I am thinking Cole Brannen can help us up the middle in the futute. Late 2018 or 2019 if he shows he can hit, so that is a possible CF of the future. Travis and OcKimey are good but not great prospects.

[moonslav59]

That is an excellent wish list but adds about $38 mil to the luxury cap line by my estimates. Could we afford it? We lose a top notch defensive outfielder, a high potential left hander and a couple of decent prospects in the deal but you do have to give something to get something in return.

 

You know I am thinking Cole Brannen can help us up the middle in the futute. Late 2018 or 2019 if he shows he can hit, so that is a possible CF of the future. Travis and OcKimey are good but not great prospects.

 

It was Travis or Ockimey, so not two prospects.

 

The luxury tax hit for the KC deal is just about $3M. (Duffy's $13M minus $10M arb estimates for JBJ and ERod, yet the Royals save a little more in actual contract cost.)

 

Assuming JD costs $26-27M a year, it only adds about $30M to the luxury tax budget--not bad for JD, Duffy and a decent LH'd RP'er.

Edited January 2, 2018 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

How about this?

 

Sign JD Martinez

 

Trade

JBJ (projected $6M arb and then 2 more arb years)

ERod (projected $4M arb and then 3 more arb years)

Sam Travis or Josh Ockimey

 

For

Danny Duffy (18:$14M, 19:$15.25M, 20:$15.25M, 21:$15.5M)

Scott Alexander LHP (27 y/o RP'er with 4 years of control --including 3 arbs)

 

Luxury cost:

2018-2021: $13M

 

 

 

Nah, I don't want JD playing OF. I really don't want Benny as a starting CF. His defense is pretty lack luster.

[moonslav59]

Nah, I don't want JD playing OF. I really don't want Benny as a starting CF. His defense is pretty lack luster.

 

I'd prefer to keep JBJ in CF, too, but having Duffy is a major plus, especially at just $13M luxury tax dollars. Also Alexander fill the LH'd pen role for 4 years we need at a very low cost.

 

If HRam sucks, this move would hurt.

[mvp 78]

I'd prefer to keep JBJ in CF, too, but having Duffy is a major plus, especially at just $13M luxury tax dollars. Also Alexander fill the LH'd pen role for 4 years we need at a very low cost.

 

If HRam sucks, this move would hurt.

 

They don't need an expensive LH guy in the pen (and DD doesn't want one anyway). Scott and Abad were both great against LHB last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Look again at Scott. His HR rate was immense

[mvp 78]

Look again at Scott. His HR rate was immense

 

OPS of 527 against LHB. Alexander's was 680.

 

BUT THOSE HOME RUNS!!!

[moonslav59]

They don't need an expensive LH guy in the pen (and DD doesn't want one anyway). Scott and Abad were both great against LHB last year.

 

Alexander is not expensive. That's why he helps the deal.

[oldtimer]

It was Travis or Ockimey, so not two prospects.

 

The luxury tax hit for the KC deal is just about $3M. (Duffy's $13M minus $10M arb estimates for JBJ and ERod, yet the Royals save a little more in actual contract cost.)

 

Assuming JD costs $26-27M a year, it only adds about $30M to the luxury tax budget--not bad for JD, Duffy and a decent LH'd RP'er.

 

At that price and with one prospect, I would pull the trigger although reluctantly due to the loss of JBJ's defense. One wonders if DD is active at all? Lets hope he has something in store for us.

[notin]

They don't need an expensive LH guy in the pen (and DD doesn't want one anyway). Scott and Abad were both great against LHB last year.

 

I don't think Duffy is a the trade target to pitch in the pen.

 

This team doesn't need more left handed starters. But I do like Duffy as a pitcher.

 

I'm all lso not wild about Benintendi add a center fielder and prefer either Bradley or Betts over him out there. But I do wonder how adamant JD Martinez is about not wanting to DH. Is this a serious preference or just a negotiating ploy?

 

I will say, if the rumors of wanting more years are accurate, not wanting to DH would be a very, very bad negotiating tactic...

[notin]

Alexander is not expensive. That's why he helps the deal.

 

I think he's thinking about Duffy as the bullpen arm...

[moonslav59]

This team doesn't need more left handed starters. But I do like Duffy as a pitcher.

 

Technically, we're not "adding a left-handed starter. We're replacing an oft-injured LH'd SP'er in ERod with a more durable LH'd SP'er in Duffy.

[OH FOY]

Stanton facing all these Lefties in Fenway ought to be interesting.