A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

Boston remains the most likely landing spot for J.D. Martinez.

 

The issues are the price and duration of his contract. A short-term gain could come with a long-term detriment.

 

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval as the top two hitters in the 2014-15 free agent class:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2014-15-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

... while ranking J.D. Martinez as the top hitter in this year's lackluster free agent class:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

I do worry that we are following the same methodology as the 14-15 off season.

 

Identify the biggest need area.

 

Sign the best guy available that fills that need, regardless of risk or cost.

 

While I do think JD's history and projected future are brighter than that of Pablo & HRam back then, the risk is still insanely high at a time where every dollar will count over the next 4-5 years, in terms of keeping our young players and guys like Sale, Kimbrel & Pom.

[moonslav59]

But... but ... but we were all told the luxury tax would not be an issue this season...

 

It doesn't (IMO), as long as we stay below the second penalty level... this year.

 

The problem arises when we look to re-set again in 1-3 years, at a time when we will need to try and keep our best players as the reach free agency within a short window of time.

 

[cp176]

And no one else's does. All those other teams are so medically adept and lucky to be immune to injury...

 

every other ml team has a pitching staff with between 7 and 10 healthy starters. Most of them were probably developed in their own minor league systems. a pox uno the boston Red Sox. doesn't matter what anyone says or thinks this franchise sucks primarily because of the incredible change in philosophy that we are recently undergoing under the lack of GM leadership. (How am I doing so far Larry? lol) Our draft picks suck because we win too many games - our free agent signings always just suck. I'm betting that there can't be one other franchise that even envies the fact that we have won the east for the last two consecutive seasons.

[cp176]

It doesn't (IMO), as long as we stay below the second penalty level... this year.

 

The problem arises when we look to re-set again in 1-3 years, at a time when we will need to try and keep our best players as the reach free agency within a short window of time.

 

 

Sale - Betts - maybe Benintendi and Devers - I'll bet that we will be able to afford them.

[moonslav59]

And no one else's does. All those other teams are so medically adept and lucky to be immune to injury...

 

LOL.

 

Larry laid out very well all that could go wrong with our staff. Now, the brighter more optimistic outlook (with Larry's view as the headlines:

 

1.) Price’s elbow (last we saw) has a tear in it. That thing is a pop away from costing him 18 plus months.

Price says the doctors were shocked at how well his elbow improved. I forget the exact wording, but it sounded miraculous. Price looked damn good at the end of the season and could win the Cy Young in 2018.

 

2.) Rodriguez is going to miss the start of the season due to knee surgery!

ERod was not a big factor in our pitching success of 2017, so hopefully, he returns strong when we need him most- the last 3-4 months of the season/pots season.

 

3.) porcello has a sinker that does not sink and gave up a ton of taters! Can we continue to roll out a 5 plus era every fifth day next year?

Porcello won the Cy Young in 2016. Hoping for something between 2016 and 2017 is not too much to ask for.

 

4.) sale is one skinny dude! Can his bony arm continue to pitch 200 plus innings and have anything left in the tank for the playoffs! If last year was as any indication, the answer is no!

We can learn from this year and work to rest him more next year. MLB has changed the schedule to allow for more days off. There's hope he can win the Cy Young next year AND be strong for the playoffs. He's the 3rd Cy Young candidate on next year's staff. Man, we suck!

 

5.) is Pomeranz a one year wonder. ( see porcello) How does his elbow, which was barking a while back, hold up next year!

Actually, Pom has had 1 and a half "wonder years" not one. He was a solid number 2 last year and may need to just be a solid number 3 or 4 this year.

 

6.) Wright is probably facing a 30 game suspension and has not pitched worth a crap in over a year!

Hopefully, we don't need Wright, but if he's healthy and still with us, he could help us immensely.

 

7.) Johnson is probably better suited for the pen!

Agreed, and we can use a long man lefty in the pen.

 

8.) Elias would look good in a reds uniform. \

Elias should not be a serious contender for any slot on the 25 man roster, but it's nice to have some hopes on the farm.

 

9.) Velasquez - I expect a year two leap from him. He could be our unsung hero by November 2018.

I agree with the optimism here, and we also have Beeks, Haley and maybe Shawaryn as further farm hopes.

 

Our pen did very well last year- much better than expected. We lost Ross, who missed just about the whole year and Abad, but look at the upsides:

 

Smith for the full season

Workman, Scott & Maddox for the full season

Barnes, Hembree and Kelly with one full year of pen experience returning

Thronburg maybe returning during the season.

Ben Taylor and possible converted starters (Johnson, Elias and others) as added depth.

 

A stronger and deeper pen may help us feel better about yanking our starters earlier and saving their arms for October.

 

[moonslav59]

Sale - Betts - maybe Benintendi and Devers - I'll bet that we will be able to afford them.

 

Agree. Devers and Beni re-signings are far away.

 

The more immediate issues will be how to cost-effectively keep or replace Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Bogey and JBJ.

 

The money "saved" by eventually losing HRam, Pablo and Castillo's contracts will mostly be eaten up by arb raises and option year salary increases.

 

Can our farm replace some of our key players in 2-4 years?

 

Ockimey/Travis for Moreland?

Chatham/Marco/Lin for Bogey?

Brentz/Tavarez/Mars/Brannen for JBJ?

Chavez/Brentz for HRam

Beeks/Velazquez/Haley/Shawaryn/Johnson for Pom and Porcello?

 

Can Smith or Thornburg hold down the closer role after Kimbrel moves on? (I think they have one more year of control than Kimbrel, so where do we turn after they come up for free agency?

 

[cp176]

Yes I believe it can and will be able to adequately replace most of our current crop of everyday players. Probably because I just don't think that our current crop is all that good. Ultimately, because I truly do not think that the majority of our everyday players are anything special, it will come right down to the pitching as it quite often does anyway.

[notin]

Sale - Betts - maybe Benintendi and Devers - I'll bet that we will be able to afford them.

 

Benintendi and Devers will not be free agents in 3 years.

 

If the Sox spend heavily between now and when Betts and Sale reach free agency, it is not likely they keep both, assuming they can actually afford either. Of the two, they should let Sale walk. He is less likely to maintain his performance well into his next deal...

[notin]

 

Can Smith or Thornburg hold down the closer role after Kimbrel moves on? (I think they have one more year of control than Kimbrel, so where do we turn after they come up for free agency?

 

 

If Thornburg is healthy, he could probably replace Kimbrel now and no one would notice the difference...

[Bellhorn04]

Yes I believe it can and will be able to adequately replace most of our current crop of everyday players. Probably because I just don't think that our current crop is all that good. Ultimately, because I truly do not think that the majority of our everyday players are anything special, it will come right down to the pitching as it quite often does anyway.

 

You really don't believe Mookie is anything special? He was 2nd and 6th in MVP voting the last 2 years. And that's one of the awards where the results actually mean something, I think.

 

I think he's a pretty special talent.

[notin]

You really don't believe Mookie is anything special? He was 2nd and 6th in MVP voting the last 2 years. And that's one of the awards where the results actually mean something, I think.

 

I think he's a pretty special talent.

 

Not to mention it isn't going to be easy to replace Bradley and Bogaerts. Most of the criticisms from them seems to be based solely on 2017.

 

Even Pomeranz has been terrific and won't be easy to replace. And if you look at his 2016, you might notice 2017 was NOT a one-season wonder. (Unless you only look at W-L record).

 

Really the easiest guy to replace will probably be Kimbrel...

[moonslav59]

Not to mention it isn't going to be easy to replace Bradley and Bogaerts. Most of the criticisms from them seems to be based solely on 2017.

 

Even Pomeranz has been terrific and won't be easy to replace. And if you look at his 2016, you might notice 2017 was NOT a one-season wonder. (Unless you only look at W-L record).

 

Really the easiest guy to replace will probably be Kimbrel...

 

Easiest but maybe not easy.

 

If we miss on our next closer, it could be disastrous.

 

I do think Smith or Thornburg could be fine closers. Thorburg's deal expires after 2019: Smith's contract expires after 2020. By then, maybe someone else in our system has risen to the top.

 

Free Agents to be...

 

After 2018:

Pomeranz

Joe Kelly

 

After 2018 or 2019 (vest?)

HRam

 

After 2019:

Sandoval ($5M buyout for 2020)

Sale

Bogey

Porcello

Moreland

Thornburg

Holt

 

After 2020:

Betts

Bradley

Castillo

Vazquez

Leon

Smith

Workman

Wright

 

(Beni is after 2022 and Devers is yet to be determined.)

 

 

[cp176]

You really don't believe Mookie is anything special? He was 2nd and 6th in MVP voting the last 2 years. And that's one of the awards where the results actually mean something, I think.

 

I think he's a pretty special talent.

 

I think you read my posts (although I'm not sure why anyone would sometimes). I've repetitively said that I'm for hanging on to Sale and Betts for sure but as for the rest, nope not losing sleep over any of them who choose to move on . With that being said, i also have said that I do have high hopes for both Devers and Benintendi but I'm not ready to anoint them as anything special either just yet.

[a700hitter]

Not to mention it isn't going to be easy to replace Bradley and Bogaerts. Most of the criticisms from them seems to be based solely on 2017.

 

Even Pomeranz has been terrific and won't be easy to replace. And if you look at his 2016, you might notice 2017 was NOT a one-season wonder. (Unless you only look at W-L record).

 

Really the easiest guy to replace will probably be Kimbrel...

A very strong argument can be made that if the Red Sox had any closer other than Kanley Jansen that we do not win the Division last year.

[cp176]

A very strong argument can be made that if the Red Sox had any closer other than Kanley Jansen that we do not win the Division last year.

 

Gonna fall on deaf ears here my friend. Seriously think about all of that talent we would still have and who we could trade it for now if we hadn't made a power move to win a couple of years ago. I'm having a hard day - I'm finally coming to the realization that Bellhorn doesn't read my posts and that the cliff is certainly closer than guys like you and I thought it could be and that one of the worst moves that we could ever make would be to sign one of the best hitters in the game to a 5 year contract. How will we ever have enough money to re-sign the likes of Bradley and Bogaerts? Plus the fact that if we don't rush out and sign a #5 starting pitcher, our pitching is even going to suck this year. Woe is me - woe is me - woe is me - these guys are screwing up my merry Christmas -- lol

[Bellhorn04]

I think you read my posts (although I'm not sure why anyone would sometimes). I've repetitively said that I'm for hanging on to Sale and Betts for sure but as for the rest, nope not losing sleep over any of them who choose to move on.

 

Sorry, my problem is I read too many posts.

[cp176]

Sorry, my problem is I read too many posts.

 

I'm just in a rip roaring rambling rampage today.

[moonslav59]

A very strong argument can be made that if the Red Sox had any closer other than Kanley Jansen that we do not win the Division last year.

 

Agreed.

 

Just curious, what are your thoughts on the closer influence on our 2016's division win?

[a700hitter]

Agreed.

 

Just curious, what are your thoughts on the closer influence on our 2016's division win?

We could have won with a number of other closers in 2016. CK was clearly injured and not performing to his standards.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm just in a rip roaring rambling rampage today.

 

What else is new?

[harmony]

I do worry that we are following the same methodology as the 14-15 off season.

 

Identify the biggest need area.

 

Sign the best guy available that fills that need, regardless of risk or cost.

 

While I do think JD's history and projected future are brighter than that of Pablo & HRam back then, the risk is still insanely high at a time where every dollar will count over the next 4-5 years, in terms of keeping our young players and guys like Sale, Kimbrel & Pom.

J.D. Martinez and Hanley Ramirez provide interesting comps.

 

Ramirez, who was seven months older than Martinez's current age when he signed with the Red Sox, had posted 11.2 fWAR in 371 games over the three previous seasons. J.D. Martinez has posted 10.6 fWAR in 397 games over the past three seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

A very strong argument can be made that if the Red Sox had any closer other than Kanley Jansen that we do not win the Division last year.

 

The 2017 Kimbrel is not an easy guy to replace, I would agree.

[cp176]

What else is new?

 

Oh man - that obvious

[moonslav59]

We could have won with a number of other closers in 2016. CK was clearly injured and not performing to his standards.

 

Agreed, but the weird thing was his K rate was higher than his previous 3 seasons.

 

The 5.1 BB/9 was way out of whack, however.

 

2017 was his best since 2011 and 2013.

 

If you look at our ring years, not that we have to duplicate everything about those teams to win again, you'll notice stellar closer seasons: Foulke, Papelbon and then Uehara.

[moonslav59]

J.D. Martinez and Hanley Ramirez provide interesting comps.

 

Ramirez, who was seven months older than Martinez's current age when he signed with the Red Sox, had posted 11.2 fWAR in 371 games over the three previous seasons. J.D. Martinez has posted 10.6 fWAR in 397 games over the past three seasons.

 

Ominous.

[Bellhorn04]

Ominous.

 

It is a bit ominous. But if Martinez can stay healthy, with the team's help in how they play him, that would give him a big edge over Hanley who has been dogged by injuries with us.

[sk7326]

I'm a big college basketball fan. I always chuckle when a coach complains about needing this and that. Why not just recruit what you need? Don't recruit a skinny kid if you need size. Don't recruit a non shooter if need shooting, etc.

 

Sign Martinez and call it a day.

 

To be fair college basketball recruiting is much more like drafting than FA ... while you want to fill needs, you are looking for stars ... the Red Sox are not speculating here. I think they and Martinez will come together eventually - it makes too much sense not to. But Dombrowski is being smart here - Martinez is the sort of guy you'd like to not give 5 years to, let alone 6 - even if that means higher AAV to do it.

[Larry Cook]

lol- Larry has spoken. We have no chance! Our entire starting pitching staff sucks.

 

Let me clarify. Our pitching staff is very good! But counting on them being 100 percent healthy through the entire year is extremely foolish.

 

We need depth. We need another starter signed!

[notin]

To be fair college basketball recruiting is much more like drafting than FA ... while you want to fill needs, you are looking for stars ... the Red Sox are not speculating here. I think they and Martinez will come together eventually - it makes too much sense not to. But Dombrowski is being smart here - Martinez is the sort of guy you'd like to not give 5 years to, let alone 6 - even if that means higher AAV to do it.

 

First of all, college basketball is about player development for 18 and 19yo kids. They don't recruit by needs becausethey want the best aathletes and are willing to adjust the system to the players as opposed to the other wsy around.

 

I actually think 5 or even 6 years for Martinez is fine given how his career seems to be paralleling that of Edwin Encarnacion at similar ages. If you think DD missed out on 34you Encarnacion through age 37 last year, what the argument for not signing Martinez at 4 years younger to a deal that takes him to 35 or 36?

[cp176]

Let me clarify. Our pitching staff is very good! But counting on them being 100 percent healthy through the entire year is extremely foolish.

 

We need depth. We need another starter signed!

 

Yes that is much better. Our pitching staff is better than most and will likely face the same set of trials and tribulations that every other team in the league will face. Before it is all said and done, I think that we will probably add another arm. Through what method though is still to be determined.