A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

DD could trade Kimbrel for some top prospects and avoid that cliff some are worried about. Of course, in the process he might be closing our window. 35 saves isn't to be sneezed at.

 

No, and that's why he won't do it, even though Kimbrel is just under control for 1 more year with 2 or 3 more years (of the "window") to go afterwards without him.

[moonslav59]

Some of the more analytic minded fans have their trendy idea that closers are overrated. I don't think many in baseball would agree. Moon , I remember you bemoaning the Kimbrel deal , and saying we should have held on to those rather marginal prospects and acquired KRod or Clippard to serve as closer. How would that have worked out ? The fact is , without Sale and Kimbrel there would not have been much to be excited about this past season.

 

KRod and Clippard were some of my suggestions, yes, but you are neglecting to mention the rest of my suggestion: use the players we gave for Kimbrel, add others and get Sale or Quintana (or Carrasco) back then.

 

We could possibly have Quintana and Sale with an average or better closer right now, or we could have struck out totally. I get the risk.

 

I do think closers making $13M a year should not cost 4 prospects, even now with the inflated costs of closers. Margot was not a "marginal prospect", and several GMs seems to adhere to the notion that closers are not as valuable as some non analytic minded, non trendy fans seem to think they are. Plus, Kimbrel was not all that great in 2016, anyways.

Edited December 4, 2017 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

If we had hung on to Margot, would we have needed to rush benintendi to the majors?

 

If we had hung into Shaw, would we have needed to rush devers to the majors?

 

Desperate dave has a problem figuring out how to build a team properly so it has adequate front line players and adequate depth.

 

We need to abandon the fruitless search for an ultra expense big bat and build sensibly with necessary depth.

 

That means an affordable first baseman with some power and upside (Adams), another mid level starter, and two relievers.

[Bellhorn04]

If we had hung on to Margot, would we have needed to rush benintendi to the majors?

 

If we had hung into Shaw, would we have needed to rush devers to the majors?

 

Desperate dave has a problem figuring out how to build a team properly so it has adequate front line players and adequate depth.

 

 

This is just dumb. Benintendi and Devers were fine, and the team that was not 'built properly' won the division for the second year in a row,

[S5Dewey]

KRod and Clippard were some of my suggestions, yes, but you are neglecting to mention the rest of my suggestion: use the players we gave for Kimbrel, add others and get Sale or Quintana (or Carrasco) back then.

 

We could possibly have Quintana and Sale with an average or better closer right now, or we could have struck out totally. I get the risk.

 

I do think closers making $13M a year should not cost 4 prospects, even now with the inflated costs of closers. Margot was not a "marginal prospect", and several GMs seems to adhere to the notion that closers are not as valuable as some non analytic minded, non trendy fans seem to think they are. Plus, Kimbrel was not all that great in 2016, anyways.

 

Yes, and these GM's are called "Losers". Eight of the ten playoff teams had a closer that finished in the top ten of closers.

 

On the local front, the Sox were 22-19 in one-run games and won the division by 2 games. IMHO anyone who thinks that the Sox would have won their division without an outstanding closer isn't being realistic.

[SoxnCycles]

Again, it comes down to having a strong farm system. That's what really irks me. Dombrowski took a top rated system that others worked hard to build and made it mediocre in approximately 2 years.

 

Detroit is currently feeling the 'Dombrowski Effect'.

 

The Tigers farm system is improving.

Of course, they had to fire Dombrowski to get that process started, but still...

Edited December 4, 2017 by SoxnCycles

[Bellhorn04]

True, but in theory, we'd have likely had other players in their place at a lesser cost.

 

Sure, we could have replaced Sale and Kimbrel with another starter and reliever for lesser cost. We could also have replaced David Ortiz at DH for many years with someone cheaper. It's no trouble at all to assemble a cheap team that isn't very good.

[SoxnCycles]

Sure, we could have replaced Sale and Kimbrel with another starter and reliever for lesser cost. We could also have replaced David Ortiz at DH for many years with someone cheaper. It's no trouble at all to assemble a cheap team that isn't very good.

 

They were some impressive in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Sure, we could have replaced Sale and Kimbrel with another starter and reliever for lesser cost. We could also have replaced David Ortiz at DH for many years with someone cheaper. It's no trouble at all to assemble a cheap team that isn't very good.

 

The idea was to get Quintana or Carrasco not a closer, and then yes, go "cheap" on a closer.

 

50-65 innings from a closer are important, but I'll take 190-210 from an excellent starter instead.

[Bellhorn04]

They were some impressive in the playoffs.

 

Yes, they were not clutch.

[Bellhorn04]

50-65 innings from a closer are important, but I'll take 190-210 from an excellent starter instead.

 

It's not an either or, of course. All the innings are important. Good starts won't get you anywhere if you have a bad bullpen.

[cp176]

Yes, they were not clutch.

 

I think that they were just all pooped out Bell. They just needed more rest.

[moonslav59]

It's not an either or, of course. All the innings are important. Good starts won't get you anywhere if you have a bad bullpen.

 

True, but I was never advocating a bad bullpen.

 

Also, a great pen will get you nowhere, if you have lousy starters.

[mvp 78]

If we had hung on to Margot, would we have needed to rush benintendi to the majors?

 

If we had hung into Shaw, would we have needed to rush devers to the majors?

 

Desperate dave has a problem figuring out how to build a team properly so it has adequate front line players and adequate depth.

 

We need to abandon the fruitless search for an ultra expense big bat and build sensibly with necessary depth.

 

That means an affordable first baseman with some power and upside (Adams), another mid level starter, and two relievers.

 

Devers was rushed? He was ready!

[Bellhorn04]

True, but I was never advocating a bad bullpen.

 

Also, a great pen will get you nowhere, if you have lousy starters.

 

You need both, plain and simple.

 

It's also worth noting that Kimbrel had the 3rd highest fWAR on the team in 2017, higher than Pomeranz, higher than JBJ or Benintendi. That shows how much value can be provided in even 65-70 innings.

[notin]

You need both, plain and simple.

 

It's also worth noting that Kimbrel had the 3rd highest fWAR on the team in 2017, higher than Pomeranz, higher than JBJ or Benintendi. That shows how much value can be provided in even 65-70 innings.

 

So maybe it's time to sell high?

 

Kimbrel tied his career best in fWAR last year. But fWAR emphasizes my belief that fans overvalue the role of closer, since the stat basically says Mariano Rivera had a very similar career to Gary Gaetti.

 

I do think there are other options at closer, some on the team and some others. One available pitcher who would make a very good closer is Wei-Yin Chen. But there are elbow concerns there. Bartolo Colon probably would as well, but who really knows if he wants to. (He probably should at this point in his career. )

 

But I would be extremely surprised if the Sox dealt Kimbrel.

[mvp 78]

So maybe it's time to sell high?

 

Kimbrel tied his career best in fWAR last year. But fWAR emphasizes my belief that fans overvalue the role of closer, since the stat basically says Mariano Rivera had a very similar career to Gary Gaetti.

 

I do think there are other options at closer, some on the team and some others. One available pitcher who would make a very good closer is Wei-Yin Chen. But there are elbow concerns there. Bartolo Colon probably would as well, but who really knows if he wants to. (He probably should at this point in his career. )

 

But I would be extremely surprised if the Sox dealt Kimbrel.

 

Chen has only pitched 6 innings in relief.

 

Colon will be 45 years old sinker baller than had negative value last year.

[Bellhorn04]

Kimbrel tied his career best in fWAR last year. But fWAR emphasizes my belief that fans overvalue the role of closer, since the stat basically says Mariano Rivera had a very similar career to Gary Gaetti.

 

Well, if you pitch like a 10 WAR starter for 1/3 as many innings, it stands to reason you're worth 3.3 wins, doesn't it?

[a700hitter]

So maybe it's time to sell high?

 

Kimbrel tied his career best in fWAR last year. But fWAR emphasizes my belief that fans overvalue the role of closer, since the stat basically says Mariano Rivera had a very similar career to Gary Gaetti.

 

I do think there are other options at closer, some on the team and some others. One available pitcher who would make a very good closer is Wei-Yin Chen. But there are elbow concerns there. Bartolo Colon probably would as well, but who really knows if he wants to. (He probably should at this point in his career. )

 

But I would be extremely surprised if the Sox dealt Kimbrel.

I am not seeing Chen as Colon as closers for any MLB team. It is an out of the box idea, but I don't see it happening for either of them.

[S5Dewey]

 

Kimbrel tied his career best in fWAR last year. But fWAR emphasizes my belief that fans overvalue the role of closer, since the stat basically says Mariano Rivera had a very similar career to Gary Gaetti.

OMG. Have you gone blind?? IMO this is more a condemnation of fWAR than it is of fans overvaluing the role of closer.

[dgalehouse]

Yes, and these GM's are called "Losers". Eight of the ten playoff teams had a closer that finished in the top ten of closers.

 

On the local front, the Sox were 22-19 in one-run games and won the division by 2 games. IMHO anyone who thinks that the Sox would have won their division without an outstanding closer isn't being realistic.

Exactly. Last season I noticed saves being blown almost on a nightly basis all around baseball. I thought how fortunate we were to have Kimbrel. There is no way we win the division with a Clippard or KRod as closer. As far as him being overpaid , that is just the way it is in MLB these days. Most players are overpaid , some by a lot . I don't see any owners going broke. Some fans are too hung up on the concept of " Moneyball " and fantasy leagues. MLB is big business. And closers are a vital part of winning baseball.

[cp176]

Kimbrel was one of the really good stories in baseball last year. He is still with us. Don't think that I would knowingly weaken one area of strength that we have. I agree with some that the whole concept of relief specialists is overblown but I don't think that messing with an area of strength for something unknown makes much sense.

[notin]

OMG. Have you gone blind?? IMO this is more a condemnation of fWAR than it is of fans overvaluing the role of closer.

 

Anything to support this belief?

[notin]

Yes, and these GM's are called "Losers". Eight of the ten playoff teams had a closer that finished in the top ten of closers.

 

On the local front, the Sox were 22-19 in one-run games and won the division by 2 games. IMHO anyone who thinks that the Sox would have won their division without an outstanding closer isn't being realistic.

 

By what measure are you ranking these closers? I know it isn't fWAR and it certainly isn't (and shouldn't be) saves...

[notin]

Some of the more analytic minded fans have their trendy idea that closers are overrated. I don't think many in baseball would agree. Moon , I remember you bemoaning the Kimbrel deal , and saying we should have held on to those rather marginal prospects and acquired KRod or Clippard to serve as closer. How would that have worked out ? The fact is , without Sale and Kimbrel there would not have been much to be excited about this past season.

 

I think the role of closer is overrated because it causes many managers to misuse their best reliever.

 

I can't tell you how many times I've seen a game where a manager uses another reliever in a very tough situation, only to save his closer ( aka best reliever) to face lesser hitters in the ninth inning, and with no one on base.

 

I even made posts a few times this year expressing anger with Farrell over these exact situations. There is no point in even having a closer as good as Kimbrel if he sits on the bench in the eighth inning while someone else faces the 4-5-6 hitters, just so Kimbrel can come in in the ninth and face the bottom of the order. But hey, he gets the all-important save. Assuming there was still a lead to protect.

 

And certainly MLB people do agree with analytics, like it or not. Bill James certainly did, since he wrote a lot of them. Former GM Jim Bowden uses them in discussions on MLB Radio Network. Gabe Kapler was shocked at how prevalent they were durong his managerial interviews (for minor league jobs, no less).They are more widespread than you realize.

[moonslav59]

You need both, plain and simple.

 

It's also worth noting that Kimbrel had the 3rd highest fWAR on the team in 2017, higher than Pomeranz, higher than JBJ or Benintendi. That shows how much value can be provided in even 65-70 innings.

 

...and 2016?

[S5Dewey]

Anything to support this belief?

 

To begin with, Gaietti had a bWAR of 42.0 over 22 seasons while Rivera had a bWAR of 56.6 over 19 seasons. Or maybe it just points out how absolutely ridiculous it is to use WAR as a reference when one source's calculation of WAR is almost 1.5X the other.

 

If someone thinks that the much traded Gaetti was as valuable to the teams he played for as Rivera was to the Yankees there's not much I can say.

[S5Dewey]

I think the role of closer is overrated because it causes many managers to misuse their best reliever.

 

I can't tell you how many times I've seen a game where a manager uses another reliever in a very tough situation, only to save his closer ( aka best reliever) to face lesser hitters in the ninth inning, and with no one on base.

 

 

I've been preaching this same thing all year. It may be the only thing you and I agree on.

[S5Dewey]

...and 2016?

 

Augggh. That's one of the biggest examples of cherry-picking I've seen here.

[Bellhorn04]

...and 2016?

 

He wasn't as good. That doesn't change the point about his value to the 2017 team.