A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Nick]

I don't understand everyone's logic.

 

Moncada was moved to 3B because he was blocked by Pedroia at 2B.

As it turned out, Devers at 3B looked better option than Moncada at 3B.

 

Moncada was blocked at 2B because Pedroia's contract runs through 2021.

 

After year later, we now think Moncada is a starter at 2B? What if Pedroia comes back in June? Is Moncada still a starter?

 

MY ARGUMENT IS THAT MONCADA WOULD NOT START FOR SOX. THAT'S WHY HE WAS TRADED.

[moonslav59]

I don't understand everyone's logic.

 

Moncada was moved to 3B because he was blocked by Pedroia at 2B.

As it turned out, Devers at 3B looked better option than Moncada at 3B.

 

Moncada was blocked at 2B because Pedroia's contract runs through 2021.

 

After year later, we now think Moncada is a starter at 2B? What if Pedroia comes back in June? Is Moncada still a starter?

 

MY ARGUMENT IS THAT MONCADA WOULD NOT START FOR SOX. THAT'S WHY HE WAS TRADED.

 

No, you asked who would start, if they weren't traded.

 

Pedey is hurt.

Moncada would start 2B next year or be a better DH than HRam.

 

What's so hard about this?

[moonslav59]

No, you asked who would start, if they weren't traded.

 

Pedey is hurt.

Moncada would start 2B next year or be a better DH than HRam.

 

What's so hard about this?

 

Yes, when Pedey comes back in July or August, it is likely he will go back to 2B, but he might DH for a while first.

[Spudboy]

Who gives a f***?

[moonslav59]

Who gives a f***?

 

As much as possible.

[moonslav59]

The 9 QO's:

 

Jake Arrieta, SP, Cubs

Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals

Alex Cobb, SP, Rays

Wade Davis, RP, Cubs

Greg Holland, RP, Rockies

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals

Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals

Carlos Santana, 1B, Guardians

 

[moonslav59]

Want a busy winter with bold moves?

 

Trade: Bogey for prospects and flip them to Miami with Ockimmey, Flores and Castillo for Stanton.

Trade: JBJ, Travis, and Hembree for Salazar

Sign: Cozart $42M/3

Sign: Santana $45M/3

Sign: B Shaw $21M/3

 

LF Stanton

RF Betts

1B Santana

CF Beni

SS Cozart

3B Devers

DH HRam

2B Hernandez/Holt/Lin >Pedey

C Vaz

 

Salazar takes ERod's slot and when ERod returns Wright goes to the pen.

 

[moonslav59]

His contract isn’t that bad of a contract from a lux tax perspective. Yes, Stanton gets $29.5 mil for 10 years, but for lux tax, it’ll be $25 mil. Plus, Stanton’s contract ends when he’s 37 rather than early 40s like most insane 10 year contracts

 

I agree. The luxury tax number really looks okay for teams straddling the line from year to year- not so good for others looking at $29.5M for forever.

 

I say go for it!

[moonslav59]

Travis & Marrero were 'called home" due to injuries that do not seem severe.

 

More from the fall league...

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/11/fallwinter-roundup-travis-marrero.html

 

[oldtimer]

Want a busy winter with bold moves?

 

Trade: Bogey for prospects and flip them to Miami with Ockimmey, Flores and Castillo for Stanton.

Trade: JBJ, Travis, and Hembree for Salazar

Sign: Cozart $42M/3

Sign: Santana $45M/3

Sign: B Shaw $21M/3

 

LF Stanton

RF Betts

1B Santana

CF Beni

SS Cozart

3B Devers

DH HRam

2B Hernandez/Holt/Lin >Pedey

C Vaz

 

Salazar takes ERod's slot and when ERod returns Wright goes to the pen.

 

 

I like the idea of Santana over Hosmer, based on the likely deal required for each. Don't believe Santana is a long term fix at 1st though so consideration should be given to who we will have down the line in that position. Is it Devers? Devers at 3rd is a concern under your 2018 conditions. Can he improve his defense enough? I would keep Bogey as I believe Cora will be able to get much more out of him offensively and we can live with his defense. He is still young and may have a surprising upside.

 

I am okay letting go off JBJ if we can land a power bat like Stanton or Martinez for the outfield. We lose on defense, but improve immensely on offense.

 

Yes, we need another RP and possibly a starter but the budget may well preclude both and I still am concerned about getting a reasonable fill-in/replacement for Pedey, who is still a question mark for 2018.

[moonslav59]

I like the idea of Santana over Hosmer, based on the likely deal required for each. Don't believe Santana is a long term fix at 1st though so consideration should be given to who we will have down the line in that position. Is it Devers? Devers at 3rd is a concern under your 2018 conditions. Can he improve his defense enough? I would keep Bogey as I believe Cora will be able to get much more out of him offensively and we can live with his defense. He is still young and may have a surprising upside.

 

I am okay letting go off JBJ if we can land a power bat like Stanton or Martinez for the outfield. We lose on defense, but improve immensely on offense.

 

Yes, we need another RP and possibly a starter but the budget may well preclude both and I still am concerned about getting a reasonable fill-in/replacement for Pedey, who is still a question mark for 2018.

 

I don't think we can afford to try and get a significant player at 2B or SP'er.

 

My guess is, we give Hernandez/Holt/Lin/Marrero a shot at 2B, and if it doesn't work out, and Pedey's recovery time is extended, we'll look for the next Nunez type.

 

We'll also let Wright, Velazquez, Johnson, Haley, Elias and Beeks compete for the 5 slot while ERod recovers. We might sign someone like we did with Fister this srping.

 

The focus will most likely be on a clean-up hitter (1B or DH-4th OF'er type) and a 1B or 4th OF'er that is not the clean-up guy. (If we think HRam can play 1B, we may look at DH types like Duda.)

 

I think the 3rd priority will be to sign a guy like Bryan Shaw. We may then be able to trade from our pen depth- something like Hembree, Taylor and Swihart for a better RP'er than Hembree. Or, we could throw in Johnson and trade for a better 6th starter type.

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Paul Swydan looks at Jackie Bradley Jr. and the 2017 dip in Red Sox hitting:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whos-the-real-jackie-bradley-jr/

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs columnist Paul Swydan looks at Jackie Bradley Jr. and the 2017 dip in Red Sox hitting:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whos-the-real-jackie-bradley-jr/

 

The real Bradley is a guy who gets hot for one month each year and is bad otherwise. I think just looking at season totals doesn't do enough service to the craziness that goes with his batting woes.

[moonslav59]

The real Bradley is a guy who gets hot for one month each year and is bad otherwise. I think just looking at season totals doesn't do enough service to the craziness that goes with his batting woes.

 

I'm afraid it looks that way.

 

I'm still holding out hope he puts together multiple hot streaks within one season...2018?

[notin]

I don't think we can afford to try and get a significant player at 2B or SP'er.

 

My guess is, we give Hernandez/Holt/Lin/Marrero a shot at 2B, and if it doesn't work out, and Pedey's recovery time is extended, we'll look for the next Nunez type.

 

We'll also let Wright, Velazquez, Johnson, Haley, Elias and Beeks compete for the 5 slot while ERod recovers. We might sign someone like we did with Fister this srping.

 

The focus will most likely be on a clean-up hitter (1B or DH-4th OF'er type) and a 1B or 4th OF'er that is not the clean-up guy. (If we think HRam can play 1B, we may look at DH types like Duda.)

 

I think the 3rd priority will be to sign a guy like Bryan Shaw. We may then be able to trade from our pen depth- something like Hembree, Taylor and Swihart for a better RP'er than Hembree. Or, we could throw in Johnson and trade for a better 6th starter type.

 

Thr Sox should just use Rusney Castillo as their fourth outfielder.

 

He's already in the budget, and the only change is he would count against the luxury tax, which DD said would not be an issue this year.

 

Castillo is a very capable defensive outfielder when he doesn't injure himself. And if the Sox ever want to divest themselves of his deal, he needs to do something in MLB. Because even if he hit .750 with 60HRs at Pawtucket (which he won't), no one would still touch that contract. ..

[moonslav59]

Thr Sox should just use Rusney Castillo as their fourth outfielder.

 

He's already in the budget, and the only change is he would count against the luxury tax, which DD said would not be an issue this year.

 

Castillo is a very capable defensive outfielder when he doesn't injure himself. And if the Sox ever want to divest themselves of his deal, he needs to do something in MLB. Because even if he hit .750 with 60HRs at Pawtucket (which he won't), no one would still touch that contract. ..

 

The main problem is that the new rules state that if RC is added to the 40 man, he will count against the luxury tax budget for the remainder of his contract.

 

If we stay over the luxury limit for the next 3 years, the cost might get to high. One year is probably okay, but we can't "do over", if he fails.

[mvp 78]

I'm afraid it looks that way.

 

I'm still holding out hope he puts together multiple hot streaks within one season...2018?

 

He's such a great fielder. I'd love it if he puts it all together and earns a $20M/year payday. I don't think he's getting there though. He's probably just going to be Mike Cameron. His similar batter comps on Baseball Ref are pretty rough. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlja02.shtml

[mvp 78]

The main problem is that the new rules state that if RC is added to the 40 man, he will count against the luxury tax budget for the remainder of his contract.

 

If we stay over the luxury limit for the next 3 years, the cost might get to high. One year is probably okay, but we can't "do over", if he fails.

 

If they weren't still paying Panda, it could be an option.

[Jack Flap]

He's such a great fielder. I'd love it if he puts it all together and earns a $20M/year payday. I don't think he's getting there though. He's probably just going to be Mike Cameron. His similar batter comps on Baseball Ref are pretty rough. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlja02.shtml

 

JBJ could do far worse than to have Cameron's career.

[mvp 78]

JBJ could do far worse than to have Cameron's career.

 

Oh for sure. He just had the potential to be far more than Cameron.

[harmony]

Oh for sure. He just had the potential to be far more than Cameron.

Through his age 27 season Mike Cameron had posted 14.0 fWAR in 597 games en route to 50.7 fWAR in his MLB career.

 

Through his age 27 season Jackie Bradley Jr. has posted 9.9 fWAR in 527 games.

[moonslav59]

As much as we think of Cameron as a mostly defensive player- like JBJ- the numbers show otherwise:

 

JBJ: 9.9 WAR (-3.9 OFF and 34.5 DEF)

MC: 50.7 WAR (120.2 OFF and 130.4 DEF)

 

Note: most of Mike's offensive numbers cam from his years at ages 28 to 36.

 

Maybe we'll see the same from JBJ.

 

[harmony]

Red Sox roundup:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/11/boston_red_sox_looking_to_add.html

 

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/boston-red-sox-notes-staying-under-luxury-tax-not-goal-2018

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/11/06/can-alex-cora-analytics-plan-take-red-sox-next-level/mv795H1wqtWWmZ3XxQhLKK/story.html#comments

[dgalehouse]

Through his age 27 season Mike Cameron had posted 14.0 fWAR in 597 games en route to 50.7 fWAR in his MLB career.

 

Through his age 27 season Jackie Bradley Jr. has posted 9.9 fWAR in 527 games.

 

The " Cooler " strikes again.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox roundup:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/11/boston_red_sox_looking_to_add.html

 

"Boston's only current option at first baseman/designated hitter, Hanley Ramirez, had shoulder surgery after the season, but Dombrowski said doctors have ensured him that Ramirez would be healthy enough to play first base next season if the club acquires a player better suited for the DH role."

 

 

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/boston-red-sox-notes-staying-under-luxury-tax-not-goal-2018

 

“We think Pedey is going to be back in May at some point right now if you listen to what the doctor has to say,” Dombrowski said. “But we like, we had Brock Holt who at the end of the year, felt good. We really like Marco Hernandez a lot, he’s healthy, he’ll be ready to go. He’s a real possibility, and then we have [Tzu-Wei] Lin who’s a utility guy. Deven Marrero can play over there. So do I think we can fill internally, yes. Will we? I’m not sure. We’ll wait and see what happens.”

 

[

[Larry Cook]

Would desperate dave be interested in signing Ethier as his 4th outfielder?

[notin]

Price needs to have a stellar season next year (not that he'll be able to avoid at least one trip to the DL, with that elbow).

He needs a good season to opt out so we can be rid of him.

 

Will fans feel the same way about JD Martinez by 2020?

[notin]

Would desperate dave be interested in signing Ethier as his 4th outfielder?

 

 

Just use Brock Holt as a fourth outfielder. . If for no other reason that maybe they can stop using him as an infielder. .

[moonslav59]

Just use Brock Holt as a fourth outfielder. . If for no other reason that maybe they can stop using him as an infielder. .

 

Shaw and Lin have also been learning the OF.

Edited November 8, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

25 Man Roster

 

Assuming we sign a big bat, most likely at 1B. here's a look at the 25 man roster situation (assuming no trades):

(Opening day)

 

60 Day DL:

Pedroia

ERod

(Thornburg?)

 

16 Locks-

FA signing

Betts

Beni

Bogey

JBJ

Devers

HRam

Vazquez

Sale

Price

Pom

Porcello

Kimbrel

Smith

Kelly

Barnes

 

6 Probables-

Leon

Hernandez

Wright

Maddox

Scott

Hembree (no options)

 

Options for Last 3 Slots-

Holt, Lin, Marrero

Travis, Swihart, Brentz

Workman, Taylot, Martin, Jerez

Johnson, Velazquez, Beeks, Haley, Elias