A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[harmony]

And, we'd have to pay someone to take Pedey, so I'm not getting the comp.

 

The point is, the Marlins are looking to cut $25M from their budget. I'm not saying they will hand Dee away for nothing, but I doubt it takes as much as you seem to think it will. Also, trading Dee (and one more guy) might allow them to keep Stanton one more year.

Perhaps you undervalue a Gold Glove-winning second baseman who has stolen 212 bases over the past four seasons while maintaining an above-average on-base percentage (an OBP six points higher than the Red Sox OBP over the the same period).

 

Given his modest contract, 29-year-old Dee Gordon has significant surplus value.

 

Then again, perhaps three years of Dee Gordon at $39 million has no more trade value than two years of Xander Bogaerts with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $7.6 million. Gordon has posted 12.5 fWAR in 530 games over the past four seasons while Bogaerts, who lacks Gordon's glove, has posted 12.7 fWAR in 605 games over the same period.

Edited October 26, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

My guess is DD puts all his eggs in one or two baskets.

 

That means no 2Bman acquisition.

--We'll hope Hernandez is healthy or go with Holt/Lin/Marrero until Pedey comes back.

 

That means no SP'er acquisition.

--We'll hope that one or two from Wright, Johnson, Velazquez, Beeks or Haley step up until ERod comes back or wait for a deadline deal.

 

That leaves quite a few options- more if HRam can be counted on to play 1B not DH.

 

We need a solid clean-up hitter.

 

We need a 1Bman or DH (see comment on HRam).

 

We need a 4th OF'er who could also DH.

 

*** Stanton could DH and fill the 4th OF slot. This forces HRam to play 1B with Travis/Chavis/Swihart or we add someone like Duda, Morrison or ???

 

*** Sign JD Martinez to fill the same role listed for Stanton. (Could also sign a 1Bman)

 

*** Sign Moustakas to play 3B, move Devers to 1B and let HRam DH all year. (Could also sign a 1Bman)

 

*** Sign Hosmer or Santana and then try to improve at another position (4th OF/DH?)

 

These look like the biggest and sexiest moves on the radar right now.

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

The Marlins would be happy to part ways with Dee.

 

They wouldn’t be happy per se, but they’d do it for the right return.

[cp176]

Since we are all guessing - that's what we do - here is mine. Between Hernandez, Marrero, Lin, and Holt. second base is going to be taken care of. Nothing too dramatic to be done there until someone really knows - not just guesses - what the outcome will be for Pedroia.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe Stanton and Ziegler ($9M/1 yr). We need a lefty RP'er and $9M is a lot.

 

Then again...

 

Let's go all in, then. Make them take HRam, but we'll take all their big deals:

 

Trade:

 

HRam ($22M luxury)

18:$22M, 19:$22M vesting option

 

Plus who????? (Flores & Chavis)

 

For

 

Stanton ($25M luxury tax)

18:$25M, 19:$26M, 20:$26M, 21:$29M, 22:$29M, 23:$32M, 24:$32M, 25:$32M, 26:$29M, 27:$25M, 28:$25M club option ($10M buyout)

 

Volquez ($11M luxury)

18:$13M

 

Gordon ($10M luxury)

18:$10.5M, 19:$13M, 20:$13.5M, 21:$14M club

 

Ziegler ($8M)

18:$9M

 

[We could take Prado ($13.3M luxury) 18:$13.5M, 19:$15M, instead of Gordon.]

 

That's $56M luxury tax dollars (2018 only) in exchange for $22M for HRam. That's a net $34M for us and savings for Miami in 2018. They save way more later. We'd still be under the second penalty phase. (Adding Prado would allow us to move Devers to 1B, but would put the net salary at $47.3M. I guess we could ask for just enough cash to keep us under, although I don't really want Prado (and others listed). How many prospects would we have to include to save the Marlins that much cash?

 

1) Gordon 2B > Pedey

2) Bogey SS

3) Betts RF

4) Stanton DH

5) Beni LF

6) Devers 3B (1B)

7) Morrison 1B (Prado 3B)

8) JBJ CF

9) Vaz

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Price

SP3 Pom

SP4 Volquez

SP5 Porcello

SP6 Wright>ERod

 

RP1 Kimbrel

RP2 Smith

RP3 Kelly

RP4 Barnes

RP5 Maddox

RP6 Workman/Hembree

RP7 Ziegler/Scott/Johnson> Thornburg/Ross

 

 

moon, in the history of salary dumps, are there any examples of the team doing the dumping taking back something like HanRam's remaining contract - a potential 2 year, $44 million liability for them?

[Slasher9]

Perhaps you undervalue a Gold Glove-winning second baseman who has stolen 212 bases over the past four seasons while maintaining an above-average on-base percentage (an OBP six points higher than the Red Sox OBP over the the same period).

 

Given his modest contract, 29-year-old Dee Gordon has significant surplus value.

 

Then again, perhaps three years of Dee Gordon at $39 million has no more trade value than two years of Xander Bogaerts with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $7.6 million. Gordon has posted 12.5 fWAR in 530 games over the past four seasons while Bogaerts, who lacks Gordon's glove, has posted 12.7 fWAR in 605 games over the same period.

 

i'll take a pass on anyone that has ever been caught for PeD. i dont care if he is babe ruth reborn. no thank you.

[moonslav59]

moon, in the history of salary dumps, are there any examples of the team doing the dumping taking back something like HanRam's remaining contract - a potential 2 year, $44 million liability for them?

 

Probably not. They just pay $44M towards the contract and keep a roster spot open for young talent.

 

I think there have been trades of about equal contracts with both being salary dump types, but Stanton is not a dump.

[oldtimer]

My guess is DD puts all his eggs in one or two baskets.

 

That means no 2Bman acquisition.

--We'll hope Hernandez is healthy or go with Holt/Lin/Marrero until Pedey comes back.

 

That means no SP'er acquisition.

--We'll hope that one or two from Wright, Johnson, Velazquez, Beeks or Haley step up until ERod comes back or wait for a deadline deal.

 

That leaves quite a few options- more if HRam can be counted on to play 1B not DH.

 

We need a solid clean-up hitter.

 

We need a 1Bman or DH (see comment on HRam).

 

We need a 4th OF'er who could also DH.

 

*** Stanton could DH and fill the 4th OF slot. This forces HRam to play 1B with Travis/Chavis/Swihart or we add someone like Duda, Morrison or ???

 

*** Sign JD Martinez to fill the same role listed for Stanton. (Could also sign a 1Bman)

 

*** Sign Moustakas to play 3B, move Devers to 1B and let HRam DH all year. (Could also sign a 1Bman)

 

*** Sign Hosmer or Santana and then try to improve at another position (4th OF/DH?)

 

These look like the biggest and sexiest moves on the radar right now.

 

 

 

Interesting article about a potential trade with the mariners for bp arm(s). Interesting read and may impact are overall traade plans.

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/10/25/16487712/mariners-red-sox-potential-trade-2018-bullpen-outfield

[moonslav59]

Interesting article about a potential trade with the mariners for bp arm(s). Interesting read and may impact are overall traade plans.

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/10/25/16487712/mariners-red-sox-potential-trade-2018-bullpen-outfield

 

I don't think we are "desperate for a bridge to Kimbrel". We have Smith.

 

Our top priority is a clean-up hitter that can play 1B, OF, 3B (Devers to 1B) or DH.

 

Our second priority is a decent second player to fill the 1B or 4th OF'er role not filled by #1.

[harmony]

Interesting article about a potential trade with the mariners for bp arm(s). Interesting read and may impact are overall traade plans.

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/10/25/16487712/mariners-red-sox-potential-trade-2018-bullpen-outfield

I suspect Seattle would prefer to re-sign Cuban outfielder Leonys Martin after his likely non-tender by the Cubs to trading for the costly contract of Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo, who is older than Martin.

 

But the inclusion of Jackie Bradley Jr. in a Castillo trade could tip the scales.

 

To borrow another cliché, I admire Lookout Landing columnist Kate Preusser for thinking outside the box. She does fine work.

Edited October 26, 2017 by harmony

[harmony]

I don't think we are "desperate for a bridge to Kimbrel". We have Smith.

 

Our top priority is a clean-up hitter that can play 1B, OF, 3B (Devers to 1B) or DH.

 

Our second priority is a decent second player to fill the 1B or 4th OF'er role not filled by #1.

Carson Smith could not hold down the closer's role in Seattle before his injury but perhaps the righthander can in Boston.

[moonslav59]

Carson Smith could not hold down the closer's role in Seattle before his injury but perhaps the righthander can in Boston.

 

I think he can be a very good number two.

[OH FOY]

I like to give Rusney a chance next year, he hit Lefties unreal this year at Pawtucket. He was close to .400 this year, pretty sure. Edited October 26, 2017 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Just looked .395 against Lefties this year. That's unreal.

[jacksonianmarch]

I like to give Rusney a chance next year, he hit Lefties unreal this year at Pawtucket. He was close to .400 this year, pretty sure.

 

Rusney is never seeing the light of day in Boston again. His $12 mil will count against the cap once he is added to the 40 man

[oldtimer]

I like to give Rusney a chance next year, he hit Lefties unreal this year at Pawtucket. He was close to .400 this year, pretty sure.

 

The trouble with that is his hefty salary against the luxury tax, if he was to be a 4th outfielder.

[Slasher9]

The trouble with that is his hefty salary against the luxury tax, if he was to be a 4th outfielder.

unless Beni for stanton. stanton to 1b (why not) and rusney to LF.

[moonslav59]

Rusney is never seeing the light of day in Boston again. His $12 mil will count against the cap once he is added to the 40 man

 

Agree 100%.

 

He's stuck in purgatory.

[OH FOY]

He was a 2nd baseman in Cuba. We converted him to Outfielder.

[moonslav59]

unless Beni for stanton. stanton to 1b (why not) and rusney to LF.

 

$25M + $11.7M = $36.7M added to the luxury tax budget.

 

Not happening.

[OH FOY]

Man these Sox must be hurting for money. One of the richest franchises in Sports, and they worry about peanuts. Dodgers have spent so much and they said they don't care, they still will spend and pay the penalties. They will be in WS hunt for a while. They already said they will go after Ohtani too. Don't care, about penalties. Edited October 26, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Man these Sox must be hurting for money. One of the richest franchises in Sports, and they worry about peanuts. Dodgers have spent so much and they said they don't care, they still will spend and pay the penalties. They will be in WS hunt for a while. They already said they will go after Ohtani too. Don't care, about penalties.

 

The Sox spend plenty. The Dodgers are the one team out of 30 acting like the penalties don't matter.

[OH FOY]

They don't have Prospects anymore all they have is money. You got to spend, so you only make 50 million instead of 100 million. They wont lose money, bet on that. You think this is like Tampa?

They didn't spend this year, they made a effort to reset.

Edited October 26, 2017 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

I'll make sure I keep an eye on how they did financially, at end of year. They lose or make money.

[harmony]

Agree 100%.

 

He's stuck in purgatory.

Unless Rusney Castillo is traded in a package with a player who has enough surplus value that the trade partner will pay Castillo's entire salary.

 

But the Red Sox might not have an incentive to surrender surplus value because Castillo's salary does not count against the luxury tax.

Edited October 26, 2017 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

They don't have Prospects anymore all they have is money. You got to spend, so you only make 50 million instead of 100 million. They wont lose money, bet on that. You think this is like Tampa?

They didn't spend this year, they made a effort to reset.

 

Staying around the luxury tax threshold every year as they have been isn't exactly cheaping out, in my books.

[mvp 78]

The Sox spend plenty. The Dodgers are the one team out of 30 acting like the penalties don't matter.

 

Because of their market and their inability to get over the hump since going all out in 2008. It makes sense for them to do it. The Sox still have to have some sort of budget.

[OH FOY]

It is in mine. If you have a guy that hits Lefties, good, could help the club, and you wont give him a chance, because of penalty. He played 2nd in 1 WBC, Outfield, now gives Versatility. Kendricks made 10 million a year for this role. You might lose out, but you might win too, and already in organization. You'll never know, if you don't give him the chance. Edited October 26, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

It is in mine. If you have a guy that hits Lefties, good, could help the club, and you wont give him a chance, because of penalty.

 

I don't know what they're going to do about Castillo. I agree it's a shame if he gets stuck in tax purgatory. I would think if he continues to really kick ass he'll get out of that purgatory somehow.

[a700hitter]

I don't know what they're going to do about Castillo. I agree it's a shame if he gets stuck in tax purgatory. I would think if he continues to really kick ass he'll get out of that purgatory somehow.

The only shame is that he is being paid &72 million to contribute nothing for the term of his contract.