A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[bowman]

Jeter was stated as saying he wants to get his payroll in the 90 million dollar range and some un popular decisions will have to be made. We have to go hard after Stanton and offer up only as much as we have to. I don't really believe in windows like a lot of people do especially when you have owners willing to pay. It all boils down to having some key people that can evaluate talent. If we have to give up un proven players like Groome, etc you have to do it. Stanton could be that once in a life time player.

[Nick]

Beni is team controlled for 5 more years. Stanton will be under contract for 10 years. His annual $25M luxury tax amount is very cap friendly. Edited October 17, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Jeter was stated as saying he wants to get his payroll in the 90 million dollar range and some un popular decisions will have to be made. We have to go hard after Stanton and offer up only as much as we have to. I don't really believe in windows like a lot of people do especially when you have owners willing to pay. It all boils down to having some key people that can evaluate talent. If we have to give up un proven players like Groome, etc you have to do it. Stanton could be that once in a life time player.

 

I agree, and though I don't think it will take what some here are suggesting to get Stanton, I'm willing to go pretty far.

 

His contract is much higher than Sale. His injury history is a concern and should lessen what is needed to bet him, even if just slightly.

 

I'm not sure including HRam is what Jeter had in mind by trimming down to $90M. We don't know if there's a great need to get to $90M for 2018, if so, HRam will not be a part of the deal. Including him would sure help us stay stocked up full for the next 2 years ("the window").

 

Maybe Jeter is looking 4-7 years down the road, and would maybe want 3-4 prospects from Mata, Flores, Groome, Brannen and Scherff. Maybe he'll look for a mix of prospects- older and younger by asking for 1-2 from Chavis, Travis, Houck, Ockimey or Shawaryn along with 1-3 from the younger list. Maybe he'll want one vet under team control for 3 or more years (JBJ or Beni) plus a few prospects.

 

I doubt he wants two vets, unless he plans on flipping then shortly after acquiring them. Maybe we'd have to include a 3rd team.

 

I'm not sure what the Dodgers will offer. I have to think they will at least kick the tires. The Yanks will probably be there, too. Not many other teams are as high as we are in total salary, but a team like the Giants or a sleeper could surprise.

 

Maybe I'm totally underestimating what it will take, but my guess is they may take JBJ and flip him plus Groome, Chavis and one from Mata or Flores.

 

[moonslav59]

Beni is team controlled for 5 more years. Stanton will be under contract for 10 years. His annual $25M luxury tax amount is very cap friendly.

 

That's the point I've been making. To teams not looking to go over the luxury tax limit, that added "value" is lost. It makes sense he goes to a team always near or over the limit: LAD, NYY or BOS.

 

I hope it's us, but there's a limit to what I'd give.

[bowman]

Putting a team together for next year that can go farther is our main goal. Having a show stopper like Stanton would create so much excitement and really lift us. When Pedro and Clemons pitched, no one missed the game. When Papi came up everyone watched. Sure there is always risk, but considering the upside, we have to do it. At some point even if he ends up as our DH who cares. We still have to tweak our starting pitching, but bringing back the thunder to our team is critical. Look at the awe Judge brought this year to the Yanks. They would be sitting home like us without him.

[fxkatt]

I'm curious about the Jeter-Yankee connection in all this. All things being near even, isn't it very likely he would favor the Yanks?? in any Stanton deal.

[bowman]

There no one player on this team outside of Sale that I wouldn't trade for him. Now if were talking multiple talents thats another story. Jeter looking to get to a 90 million payroll I think would be happy to get one headliner with a combination of a couple other players. If not, we go to plan "B". I really believe right now we need two power guys and look at another move for a starter. My xmas list anyways. DD is chartering in dangerous waters right now after firing Farrell. His main line of defense is gone, so he's capable of doing anything at this point.

[Station 13]

Moving Stanton would be an unpopular move for the new front office. It would totally destroys some of their credibility. Not even a blowhard like Loria traded Stanton.

[bowman]

This is a huge off season for us because with the emergence of Judge, next year the Yanks will be going Balls out For Harper. In 2 years do we have Stanton, JD, Machado, on this team. Its not my money but I'd love to see it. Who knows what Devers and Betts will be putting up for numbers. Nice to dream

[moonslav59]

I'm curious about the Jeter-Yankee connection in all this. All things being near even, isn't it very likely he would favor the Yanks?? in any Stanton deal.

 

Only if they offer the most/best.

[moonslav59]

Moving Stanton would be an unpopular move for the new front office. It would totally destroys some of their credibility. Not even a blowhard like Loria traded Stanton.

 

He never had a Stanton.

[Bellhorn04]

He never had a Stanton.

 

Huh?

[Slasher9]

I share your enthusiasm for Beni, but we're talking...

 

 

Giancarlo Freakin' Stanton!

 

this. i have been wanting this guy for years. we have a chance (a really really really good chance) to get him right NOW. please for the love of all things holy...get this done DD.

[Bellhorn04]

this. i have been wanting this guy for years. we have a chance (a really really really good chance) to get him right NOW. please for the love of all things holy...get this done DD.

 

Think Jeter would have the stones to trade him to the Sox and incur the wrath of some Yankee fans?

[Slasher9]

Think Jeter would have the stones to trade him to the Sox and incur the wrath of some Yankee fans?

 

i would like to think that he would do whatever is in the best interest for the team he owns. but you may have a point. after all, we are talking about a selfish guy that refused to move off of SS for the best SS that ever played the game and he also made his team wear a Jeter patch on their hats for the final month or two of his goodbye tour season. actually after typing this out i firmly believe he wont give a flying EFF about the yankees fans. he will do whats best for derek jeter.

[veryoldtimer]

Hey Guys,

I don't recall anybody posting this.

According to Cot's contracts, Stanton has full no trade protection.

Also, he has an opt out after 2020.

So, if the Sox REALLY want him, they'll have to sweeten his pot somehow.

[cp176]

Think Jeter would have the stones to trade him to the Sox and incur the wrath of some Yankee fans?

 

I mentioned this 6 weeks ago and was informed that it was all about business and jeter would do what ever. If it was just jeter making the decision, I would say no way he would ever appear in Boston. I guess that Stanton coming our way might be possible but I still think that it is a long shot.

[jacksonianmarch]

I mentioned this 6 weeks ago and was informed that it was all about business and jeter would do what ever. If it was just jeter making the decision, I would say no way he would ever appear in Boston. I guess that Stanton coming our way might be possible but I still think that it is a long shot.

 

Jeter is the most competitive person the Yankees had during his long run. The guy didn't care if he was playing against a superior team or superior pitcher, he expected to get hits and he expected to win. He is now the acting owner of the Marlins. He's not doing this as a publicity stunt. He wants to win. He will take the best offer on the table, and if Yankee fans give him s***, then so be it.

[cp176]

Jeter is the most competitive person the Yankees had during his long run. The guy didn't care if he was playing against a superior team or superior pitcher, he expected to get hits and he expected to win. He is now the acting owner of the Marlins. He's not doing this as a publicity stunt. He wants to win. He will take the best offer on the table, and if Yankee fans give him s***, then so be it.

 

We will have to wait and see won't we. I'm going with the longshot angle when it comes to Stanton coming to Boston.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the sox offer the best package, then that is where he is going

[cp176]

If the sox offer the best package, then that is where he is going

 

It normally works that way I think doesn't it? Fortunately we don't get to decide what the best package might be. It is a longshot that he winds up in Boston.

[bosoxmal]

QUOTE=moonslav59;1104509]Please. No Hosmer.

Why? Are we talking another Lackey?

[Spudboy]

Think Jeter would have the stones to trade him to the Sox and incur the wrath of some Yankee fans?

 

Yes. If the price is right.

[moonslav59]

QUOTE=moonslav59;1104509]Please. No Hosmer.

Why? Are we talking another Lackey?

 

I've said why a number of times, but here it goes again:

 

1) He is too up and down for my liking.

2) He will want 4-5+ years and get 3-4, at least. He's not the type of 1Bman, I hitch my wagon to for the long term.

3) He's not a good fielder.

4) We can get very close to his power and offense from someone else on a 1 year deal.

 

Just say, NO!"

[moonslav59]

It normally works that way I think doesn't it? Fortunately we don't get to decide what the best package might be. It is a longshot that he winds up in Boston.

 

I'm really curious what the top offer will be like.

 

He's getting paid so much, I doubt 24 teams even take a sniff.

[sk7326]

The one thing in the pro-hosmer column is ... he's the youngest of the major FAs. You can at least imagine that last year's results will stick.

 

Also, if you look around the league, not many teams have true openings at 1B. Indeed Kansas City might be the stiffest competition here. I would not stick around for a big bidding war here - but I'd at least kick the tires.

[moonslav59]

The one thing in the pro-hosmer column is ... he's the youngest of the major FAs. You can at least imagine that last year's results will stick.

 

Also, if you look around the league, not many teams have true openings at 1B. Indeed Kansas City might be the stiffest competition here. I would not stick around for a big bidding war here - but I'd at least kick the tires.

 

Last 4 year OPS+ numbers (2014 to 2017)

 

Eric Hosmer- 28 this month

99> 122> 102> 132

 

Logan Morrison- 31 in August

111> 92> 101> 135

 

Yonder Alonso- 31 in April

96> 109> 88> 133

 

Carlos Santana- 32 in June

122> 102> 123> 112

 

Lucas Duda- 32 in FEB

137> 130> 92> 116

 

Mitch Moreland- 33 in SEP

80> 116> 87> 99

 

John Jaso- 35 in SEP

118>134> 105> 91

 

Mark Reynolds- 35 in AUG

87> 93> 101> 105

 

Adam Lins-35 in JULY

143> 123> 94> 123

 

 

I'm not sure JD Martinez can play 1B, but he turns 31 next AUG

154> 139> 142> 166

 

wRC+ 2014-2017 combined

(148 JD Martinez OF)

139 Abreu

124 Duda

120 Santana

117 Lind

116 AGon

116 Hosmer

113 HRam

113 J Jaso

109 Morrison

108 M Adams

98 Reynolds

98 Moreland

107 Alonso

[moonslav59]

Weird, since there's no reason to lie, DD said there were no known surgeries on the day Robby Scott had surgery.

 

Now, ERod and HRam both go under the knife today.

 

ERod's was major: he may not be ready until mid 2018.

 

HRam's surgery was described as minor. MLBTR reports it was "an arthrocopy and debridement. It is not expected to prevent him from being ready for a full 2018 campaign....

 

Maybe HRam deserves some slack for his 2017 season, and this procedure will help him comeback strong.

[moonslav59]

Is ERod the next Buchholz?

[moonslav59]

We used 137 different line-ups this year.

 

No slot had any player bat in it for more than 50% of the games.

 

Betts batted lead off in 81 games.

 

HRam batted 4th in 71 games. Those are the tops.

 

I'm hopeful Bogey can fill the lead-off position next year and stay there. I'd like to see betts bat 2nd, but unless we add a big bat or two, he may be forced to bat 3rd or 4th. I'm fine with letting Beni stay hitting 3rd, but it sure would be nice to see JD Martinez batting 4th for us next season. That would allow HRam and Devers to share the 5 and 6 slots depending on the L-R splits. Pedey can bat 7th, when healthy. JBJ and Vaz can bat 8th and 9th.

 

Maybe we'll see more line-up consistency next year.