A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Kimmi]

Moreland had 22 home runs this year. The most in MLB at 1b this year was 39. I think you need to work on your math a little.

 

You know way more about trade possibilities than I will ever know, but you have convinced me (as have others) that a big deal next year would definitely put the Sox in luxury tax territory which I gather John Henry wants to avoid. So here is my view of things--

 

1. Everyone had a down year this year except I think Vazquez. I think the hitting will improve next year if the same guys are back, including Devers--whether or not DD decides to hang onto Moreland. I definitely want to keep Beni in LF next year and think his homer production will increase even though 20 wasn't all that bad.

 

2. If Sale and Price are healthy, the rotation could be pretty good and better than this year. Again, no big acquisitions needed. Ditto the bullpen.

 

3. As it is/was, this team won its second straight AL East title and this time gave a better account of itself in the ALDS against an Astros team with much better hitting and, as it turned out, a better rotation.

 

4. The problem with my sanguine view of things is that the Yankees are looking very tough next year (and this year). Ditto the Astros and Guardians. Thus the pressure to do something productive in the offseason. Still, I would be fine with a stand pat approach even though, as you pointed out on page one, even that ain't cheap.

 

I pretty much agree with your points. I think this team can be very good next year if we brought back the same players, not that I necessarily agree with standing pat. I would add a #2/3 type pitcher.

 

That said, I am pretty sure Dombrowski will sign a big bat, just because that's what's expected to be done.

[Northern Star]

I'm ready to roll with Betts/Devers/Hanley in some order as 3/4/5. I do want to see a #3 pitcher to bump Porcello/ERod/Pom down, one going to the pen or perhaps a trade.

[Northern Star]

You can come back to this next season and hold it over my head, but I am optimistic about 2018, pending any offseason moves. I don't think the team needs massive or drastic (Stanton) changes.

[moonslav59]

I pretty much agree with your points. I think this team can be very good next year if we brought back the same players, not that I necessarily agree with standing pat. I would add a #2/3 type pitcher.

 

That said, I am pretty sure Dombrowski will sign a big bat, just because that's what's expected to be done.

 

I do expect an uptick from the majority of these guys:

 

Betts

JBJ

Bogey

Beni

Devers (if only by virtue of playing a full year)

 

I do not think that alone will be enough, assuming we bring back Moreland and maybe Nunez as the "stand pat" option.

 

Vaz may decline on offense. HRam and Pedey are very sketchy. Moreland or a replacement in kind may decline.

 

I know how big FA signings fail very often. I'm scared of what might happen after signing JD or Moose. I just don't see our most pressing issue being solved from within the system.

 

I think Henry reset the luxury tax for a major push as the window is still open. We went all out for a ring. Playing it halfway now would be a mistake, in my opinion.

[Kimmi]

I'm ready to roll with Betts/Devers/Hanley in some order as 3/4/5. I do want to see a #3 pitcher to bump Porcello/ERod/Pom down, one going to the pen or perhaps a trade.

 

I mostly want to add a #2 type starter because I'm not confident in Price's ability to stay healthy.

 

That said, if he can stay healthy, I think it was huge for him the way he pitched in the playoffs and ended his season. IMO, he has the fans back on his side, which is nothing to take lightly.

[Kimmi]

I do expect an uptick from the majority of these guys:

 

Betts

JBJ

Bogey

Beni

Devers (if only by virtue of playing a full year)

 

I do not think that alone will be enough, assuming we bring back Moreland and maybe Nunez as the "stand pat" option.

 

Vaz may decline on offense. HRam and Pedey are very sketchy. Moreland or a replacement in kind may decline.

 

I know how big FA signings fail very often. I'm scared of what might happen after signing JD or Moose. I just don't see our most pressing issue being solved from within the system.

 

I think Henry reset the luxury tax for a major push as the window is still open. We went all out for a ring. Playing it halfway now would be a mistake, in my opinion.

 

No worries, I can't imagine that Dombrowski won't add a big bat. My first choice would also be JD.

 

But I would also like to see him add a top or solid middle starter.

[moonslav59]

You can come back to this next season and hold it over my head, but I am optimistic about 2018, pending any offseason moves. I don't think the team needs massive or drastic (Stanton) changes.

 

Would you consider signing JD, Duda and Nunez as "drastic", in light of us letting all these guys go?

 

Young $6.5M

Moreland $5.5M

Reed $7.75M (about $2.6M)

Nunez $4.2M (about $1.4M from Sox)

Davis $6M (about $2M from Sox)

Abad $2.0M

Fister $1.8M

Boyer $0.6M

 

Total: ~$22M

[moonslav59]

A possible optimistic perspective:

 

I've done this in past years, and it never seems to work out as hoped. Each year produces a new list of "replaceable" players to hope for replacing the following year..

 

It worked this year at the catcher position as I projected the replacing of Hanigan and Holiday's horrific numbers would overshadow the expected downturn by Leon from 2016 to 2017.

 

Here it goes, for what it's worth:

 

Replacing these guys' PAs and OPS

276 Young .709

188 Marrero .593

164 B Holt .548

118 Rutledge .558

108 Sandoval .622

38 Ra. Davis .595

9 Selsky .333

7 Swihart .629

 

That's over 890 PAs total.

Most would be replaced by more PAs by Devers and whoever we sign this winter.

 

We may also end up replacing...

576 Moreland .769

with a better FA signing.

 

We may replace some of these PAs:

301 Leon .644 (with more from Vaz)

66 Lin .709

60 Hernandez .628

 

Pitching IP ERA+

203 Porcello 98 (with a better Porcello)

90 Fister 94 (with more starts by Price, ERod and possibly Wright)

62 Hembree 126 (with Smith, Workman, Scott and Maddox)

44 Abad 139

41 Boyer 105

27 Reed 138

27 Johnson 106

25 Velazquez 158

8 Kendrick 37

8 Ramirez + Martin + Elias

 

More innings by Price, ERod, Wright, Smith, Workman, Scott and Maddox should be an improvement.

 

[Nick]

Would you consider signing JD, Duda and Nunez as "drastic", in light of us letting all these guys go?

 

Young $6.5M

Moreland $5.5M

Reed $7.75M (about $2.6M)

Nunez $4.2M (about $1.4M from Sox)

Davis $6M (about $2M from Sox)

Abad $2.0M

Fister $1.8M

Boyer $0.6M

 

Total: ~$22M

 

We went for two aces last two years. Shouldn't we do the same with position players?

[Spudboy]

You can come back to this next season and hold it over my head, but I am optimistic about 2018, pending any offseason moves. I don't think the team needs massive or drastic (Stanton) changes.

 

Then be satisfied finishing no higher than 2nd in the division.

[moonslav59]

We went for two aces last two years. Shouldn't we do the same with position players?

 

To me, the JD, Duda and Nunez plan is about the minimum I think we need to be a top 3-4 contender. It may fall short.

 

We may need JD, Santana and Cobb.

[cp176]

Then be satisfied finishing no higher than 2nd in the division.

 

That is the truth unless you are going to be buying (which I know you aren't) that all of our hitters just suffered from an extreme case of regression and that next year they are bound to be right back up to snuff. This team needs professional hitters not wannabes and maybes and should bes. We need at least one and preferably two now I know what comes next. Who? How? and how much? Not my job and not something I'm worried about. The man in charge knows it as well and that works for me.

[moonslav59]

That is the truth unless you are going to be buying (which I know you aren't) that all of our hitters just suffered from an extreme case of regression and that next year they are bound to be right back up to snuff. This team needs professional hitters not wannabes and maybes and should bes. We need at least one and preferably two now I know what comes next. Who? How? and how much? Not my job and not something I'm worried about. The man in charge knows it as well and that works for me.

 

I agree, we need 1 and probably 2 hitting improvements, but I don't think it's a stretch to think a healthy Price and Smith and a couple upturns by our young players could help us improve on 93 wins without major additions.

 

I just want to be surer. I want to be a co-favorite, at least to win the AL.

[jacksonianmarch]

You had some interesting problems on offense, but the major problems were these:

 

1. Ortiz is gone. He was a prime performer at his exit with a 1+OPS and 30+HR power. Ortiz made the lineup move and had a ripple effect through it with guys getting more pitches to hit in front of him and guys getting more opportunities behind him

 

2. Pedroia isn't healthy. Pedey playing about 100 games necessitated getting Nunez. Also, you saw a drop of about 75 points in OPS at the position for the sox from 16 to 17. With Pedey being a shell of himself, the defense and power suffered at the position, and his spot in the lineup was typically #2, which meant similar OBP, but less guys in scoring position (or who have scored) due to the lack of power and EBH's.

 

3. Hanley was abysmal with runners on. Last year, he had a .875OPS with runners on. This year, it was .648. That's over a 200 point drop in a player hitting in the middle of the order.

 

The bottom line is, your big bopper left and was replaced by a guy who didn't have the goods to be a run producer. Pedey got hurt and wasn't the same. The lineup being without the big bat led to slight, but significant change in fastball percentage to Betts and a significant increase in sliders, which neutralized his effectiveness. He actually swung a lot less and it led to a higher walk rate, but a lower power output and a lower BA. His improved patience didn't lead to being more selective and hence higher line drives, quite the opposite actually. His LD% dropped 3% and his infield popup rate rose 3%.

 

The FO thought you could elevate Betts to being the focal point and they were wrong. You must add a big bat to smooth out the discontinuity in the lineup

[Spudboy]

To me, the JD, Duda and Nunez plan is about the minimum I think we need to be a top 3-4 contender. It may fall short.

 

We may need JD, Santana and Cobb.

 

What do you see those three costing each year and in length of contract?

[harmony]

I do expect an uptick from the majority of these guys:

 

Betts

JBJ

Bogey

Beni

Devers (if only by virtue of playing a full year)

What is the wRC+ over/under for Rafael Devers in 2018 after the rookie posted an wRC+ of 111 in 240 plate appearances this year?

 

Andrew Benintendi posted a wRC+ of 122 in 118 plate appearances as a rookie in 2016 and a wRC+ of 103 in 658 plate appearances this year.

[Spudboy]

You had some interesting problems on offense, but the major problems were these:

 

1. Ortiz is gone. He was a prime performer at his exit with a 1+OPS and 30+HR power. Ortiz made the lineup move and had a ripple effect through it with guys getting more pitches to hit in front of him and guys getting more opportunities behind him

 

2. Pedroia isn't healthy. Pedey playing about 100 games necessitated getting Nunez. Also, you saw a drop of about 75 points in OPS at the position for the sox from 16 to 17. With Pedey being a shell of himself, the defense and power suffered at the position, and his spot in the lineup was typically #2, which meant similar OBP, but less guys in scoring position (or who have scored) due to the lack of power and EBH's.

 

3. Hanley was abysmal with runners on. Last year, he had a .875OPS with runners on. This year, it was .648. That's over a 200 point drop in a player hitting in the middle of the order.

 

The bottom line is, your big bopper left and was replaced by a guy who didn't have the goods to be a run producer. Pedey got hurt and wasn't the same. The lineup being without the big bat led to slight, but significant change in fastball percentage to Betts and a significant increase in sliders, which neutralized his effectiveness. He actually swung a lot less and it led to a higher walk rate, but a lower power output and a lower BA. His improved patience didn't lead to being more selective and hence higher line drives, quite the opposite actually. His LD% dropped 3% and his infield popup rate rose 3%.

 

The FO thought you could elevate Betts to being the focal point and they were wrong. You must add a big bat to smooth out the discontinuity in the lineup

 

So the obvious solution is to get one, maybe two second tier power hitters and toss a decent defender with pop.

 

All will be good.

 

Yankee fans should be shaking in their boots.

[moonslav59]

What do you see those three costing each year and in length of contract?

 

I see JD getting EE type money (maybe $84M/4).

 

I see Duda taking $7M/1.

 

I see Nunez wanting and getting $27M/3.

 

That's about 37M on the luxury tax... keeping us just under the second tier penalty limit.

 

Note: I'm not expert on projecting FA contracts.

[moonslav59]

What is the wRC+ over/under for Rafael Devers in 2018 after the rookie posted an wRC+ of 111 in 240 plate appearances this year?

 

Andrew Benintendi posted a wRC+ of 122 in 118 plate appearances as a rookie in 2016 and a wRC+ of 103 in 658 plate appearances this year.

 

I could see him having a struggle or two next year, but the kid seems impervious to pressure.

 

I can see Devers being about 106 to 107, but 103 is not too bad either.

[Spudboy]

I see JD getting EE type money (maybe $84M/4).

 

I see Duda taking $7M/1.

 

I see Nunez wanting and getting $27M/3.

 

That's about 37M on the luxury tax... keeping us just under the second tier penalty limit.

 

Note: I'm not expert on projecting FA contracts.

 

Sounds workable, I guess.

 

How is 84/4 EE type money? He got 60/3.

 

I'd hate to commit to 3 years on Nunez even for what appears to be short money.

 

No one not in an MLB FO is an expert at FA contract projections.

[Spudboy]

Just looked at Duda and he seems to be Chris Davis Light.

 

Is there a RHH version of him somewhere?

 

Also, is that kid in Tampa untouchable? Morrison?

[moonslav59]

How is 84/4 EE type money? He got 60/3.

 

It's about the same per year and against the luxury tax hit. I think JD gets 4 years, and if we want him, we'll have to go 4.

 

 

I'd hate to commit to 3 years on Nunez even for what appears to be short money.

 

I'd prefer a 2 year deal, but I'm really worried about Pedey. If we want Nunez, it might take 3 years. Not ideal, but he gives us some O we need.

[Spudboy]

Just looked at Duda and he seems to be Chris Davis Light.

 

Is there a RHH version of him somewhere?

 

Also, is that kid in Tampa untouchable? Morrison?

 

Morrison is wicked cheap at $2.5 mil. He seems to be the same kind of crap that Duda is without the year to year HR production.

 

Still, 38 HR is nothing to sneeze at.

[Spudboy]

How is 84/4 EE type money? He got 60/3.

 

It's about the same per year and against the luxury tax hit. I think JD gets 4 years, and if we want him, we'll have to go 4.

 

 

I'd hate to commit to 3 years on Nunez even for what appears to be short money.

 

I'd prefer a 2 year deal, but I'm really worried about Pedey. If we want Nunez, it might take 3 years. Not ideal, but he gives us some O we need.

 

If he is healthy, that is.

 

Everyone should be nervous about Pedroia.

 

There is already speculation in the Boston media that he may consider retirement. He has been under the knife every off-season, it seems.

 

f*** Stanton. Make a play for Altuve!!!

[moonslav59]

Just looked at Duda and he seems to be Chris Davis Light.

 

Is there a RHH version of him somewhere?

 

Also, is that kid in Tampa untouchable? Morrison?

 

Morrison could be a one-hit wonder. Tampa Bay has a way of giving people, especially 1Bmen a career year and then kaput.

 

I'm not one to put all my eggs in a guys most recent one year sample size basket.

 

Morrison OPS:

 

.707 2012

.709 2013

.735 2014

.685 2015

.733 2016

 

2017 .868!

 

He only hit more than 14 HRs once since 2012 and that was only 17 in 2015, then 38 this year.

 

I don't know....

 

He might be a better choice than Duda, but I guess you are not looking at a platoon with HRam, so I guess he's close to even with Duda- but a RH'd hitter.

 

 

[moonslav59]

if he is healthy, that is.

 

Everyone should be nervous about pedroia.

 

There is already speculation in the boston media that he may consider retirement. He has been under the knife every off-season, it seems.

 

f*** stanton. Make a play for altuve!!!

 

lol.

[Spudboy]

Morrison could be a one-hit wonder. Tampa Bay has a way of giving people, especially 1Bmen a career year and then kaput.

 

I'm not one to put all my eggs in a guys most recent one year sample size basket.

 

Morrison OPS:

 

.707 2012

.709 2013

.735 2014

.685 2015

.733 2016

 

2017 .868!

 

He only hit more than 14 HRs once since 2012 and that was only 17 in 2015, then 38 this year.

 

I don't know....

 

He might be a better choice than Duda, but I guess you are not looking at a platoon with HRam, so I guess he's close to even with Duda- but a RH'd hitter.

 

 

 

Yeah I saw all that. He did have 600 AB this year which is 202 more that his 14 HR year, I think. Maybe the Trop suits him.

 

Also, I think he is a LHH as well and throw RH.

 

Yeah I was scraping the barrel with him but Jesus he did have big numbers this year. That can be intoxicating and deceptive.

 

a700 says Duda sucks. He is all or nothing and inconstant if I recall.

 

Also, I read today that Moreland was playing with a f***ed up knee from playing so long with his broken toe. He was to find out today if he needs the knife ( scope ).

 

It will be a shame to see him go. I think he fits here and he does love it here. You can't discount those two things easily.

[moonslav59]

Yeah I saw all that. He did have 600 AB this year which is 202 more that his 14 HR year, I think. Maybe the Trop suits him.

 

Also, I think he is a LHH as well and throw RH.

 

Yeah I was scraping the barrel with him but Jesus he did have big numbers this year. That can be intoxicating and deceptive.

 

a700 says Duda sucks. He is all or nothing and inconstant if I recall.

 

Also, I read today that Moreland was playing with a f***ed up knee from playing so long with his broken toe. He was to find out today if he needs the knife ( scope ).

 

It will be a shame to see him go. I think he fits here and he does love it here. You can't discount those two things easily.

 

Compare Morrison's last 4-5 seasons with Duda's. It's not even close.

 

2014: 30 in 596 (.830 OPS)

2015: 27 in 554 (.838)

2016: 7 in 152 (.714)

2017: 30 in 491 (.818)

 

If that is inconsistent, I'll take it, especially at the low cost he might be.

 

 

Morrison

2014: 11 HRs in 365 (.735 OPS)

2015: 17 in 511 (.685)

2016: 14 in 398 (.733)

2017: 38 in 601 (.868)

 

Even Morrison's career year in 2017 only beat Duda's 2017 by 50 points and 8 HRs.

(and it took him 110 more PAs to get those 8.)

[Spudboy]

Compare Morrison's last 4-5 seasons with Duda's. It's not even close.

 

2014: 30 in 596 (.830 OPS)

2015: 27 in 554 (.838)

2016: 7 in 152 (.714)

2017: 30 in 491 (.818)

 

If that is inconsistent, I'll take it, especially at the low cost he might be.

 

 

Morrison

2014: 11 HRs in 365 (.735 OPS)

2015: 17 in 511 (.685)

2016: 14 in 398 (.733)

2017: 38 in 601 (.868)

 

Even Morrison's career year in 2017 only beat Duda's 2017 by 50 points and 8 HRs.

(and it took him 110 more PAs to get those 8.)

 

I may not have quoted a700 accurately. I think he may have said that he is streaky within a season.

 

Has Duda been linked to the Sox at all?

[moonslav59]

I may not have quoted a700 accurately. I think he may have said that he is streaky within a season.

 

Has Duda been linked to the Sox at all?

 

I think it's too early to hear any "links".

 

We didn't need a 1Bman at the past deadline.

 

I'll take .830 streaky.

 

I guess he sucks on D, so if we get JD to DH, Duda can only DH when JD plays in the OF, which would weaken that D.