2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Hitch]

You do yourself no favours by outright lying when giving an opinion on a player.

[notin]

4.65 era in 17 moon ..he's a 4.5 guy who is not I repeat not worth his contract

 

He's 33-21 3.86ERA (3.97 FIP) with 117 ERA+ and a Cy Young Award on that contract. His 7.2 fWAR ranks him 13th among MLB starting pitchers in that stretch. He's also thrown more IP since that deal started than any pitcher in MLB except Sale, Verlander and Scherzer.

 

You sure he isn't worth it so far?

 

(Also - he's still only 29.)

[moonslav59]

4.65 era in 17 moon ..he's a 4.5 guy who is not I repeat not worth his contract

 

I repeat. Stop using just one season to judge a player.

 

I repeat. He has been worth his contracts with us, so far.

 

I repeat. We need innings eaters who can pitch like a Cy Young winner from time to time.

[Natick to NC]

I repeat. Stop using just one season to judge a player.

 

I repeat. He has been worth his contracts with us, so far.

 

I repeat. We need innings eaters who can pitch like a Cy Young winner from time to time.

I'll give you one Moon the guy is a horse with innings. Would you sign this guy for 2 at 42 now ? No Moon you wouldn't ...you would go get Lynn or Cobb and use that money elsewhere .Its a bad contract and can't wait until he's a FA...I will. Acknowledge I'm way over the top with This player ...I'm banning my own ass from speaking about him until he wins a playoff game .

Edited February 28, 2018 by Natick to NC

[moonslav59]

I'll give you one Moon the guy is a horse with innings. Would you sign this guy for 2 at 42 now ? No Moon you wouldn't ...you would go get Lynn or Cobb and use that money elsewhere .Its a bad contract and can't wait until he's a FA...I will. Acknowledge I'm way over the top with This player ...I'm banning my own ass from speaking about him until he wins a playoff game .

 

Now, you'rec hanging the narrative.

 

You said he has not earned his contract and then repeated it.

 

As to signing him now to $42M/2 is not a fair question.

 

FA prices have dropped this year, and Porcello is now just turning to the downside of prime.

 

Ask me if I'd repeat the signing we made 2 years ago, and I'd say yes. It's not a clear yes, but nevertheless, I'd say yes.

 

Why not find someone more deserving of your Sox bash crusade?

 

[Natick to NC]

You do yourself no favours by outright lying when giving an opinion on a player.

It's true ..I blew his era up .The guy has been a horse .I am jaded about this player my apologies to the board ...self ban for a week and no more Rick talk from me ...I'm not rational to the player .

Edited February 28, 2018 by Natick to NC

[cp176]

It's true ..I blew his era up .The guy has been a horse .I am jaded about this player my apologies to the board ...self ban for a week

 

lol - my guess is that you might get beat down on occasion but rarely beaten. No ban for you. Great opinions and insights - keep them coming.

[notin]

It's true ..I blew his era up .The guy has been a horse .I am jaded about this player my apologies to the board ...self ban for a week and no more Rick talk from me ...I'm not rational to the player .

 

How about we reduce the penalty to not calling him "Pork chop" for a week and you go buy yourself a beer and think about what you did while enjoying the smooth rich flavor.

 

Unless you are under 21. Then you need your parents to buy you that beer....

[Spudboy]

It's true ..I blew his era up .The guy has been a horse .I am jaded about this player my apologies to the board ...self ban for a week and no more Rick talk from me ...I'm not rational to the player .

 

I was a Porcello fan back when he was a rookie. I still like him. But he has had two suck years and one very good year. Overall he has been mediocre.

 

I don't care what years he has been paid what amount. That 4/80 deal was premature and now looks like it will be a drastic waste of resources.

 

All because Bennie The Boob f***ed up the rotation.

 

By the way, there are several if not many here that are not very high on Porcello.

[harmony]

I'll give you one Moon the guy is a horse with innings. Would you sign this guy for 2 at 42 now ? No Moon you wouldn't ...you would go get Lynn or Cobb and use that money elsewhere .Its a bad contract and can't wait until he's a FA...I will. Acknowledge I'm way over the top with This player ...I'm banning my own ass from speaking about him until he wins a playoff game .

Rick Porcello has posted 7.1 fWAR, valued at $57.4 million, in the first two seasons of his four-year, $82.5 million contract. The right-hander posted 2.0 fWAR, valued at $16.3 million, last year.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project 2018 WAR of 2.5 in 29 starts for Porcello, 1.6 in 26 starts for Lance Lynn and 2.0 in 23 starts for Alex Cobb.

 

Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 2.4 in 29 starts for Porcello, 1.3 in 26 starts for Lynn and 1.7 in 23 starts for Cobb.

 

ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 2.7 in 30 starts for Porcello, 2.1 in 31 starts for Lynn and 2.5 in 26 starts for Cobb.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2520&position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6562&position=P

 

Porcello is at least a year younger than Lynn and Cobb.

[iortiz]

Rick Porcello has posted 7.1 fWAR, valued at $57.4 million, in the first two seasons of his four-year, $82.5 million contract. The right-hander posted 2.0 fWAR, valued at $16.3 million, last year.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project 2018 WAR of 2.5 in 29 starts for Porcello, 1.6 in 26 starts for Lance Lynn and 2.0 in 23 starts for Alex Cobb.

 

Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 2.4 in 29 starts for Porcello, 1.3 in 26 starts for Lynn and 1.7 in 23 starts for Cobb.

 

ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 2.7 in 30 starts for Porcello, 2.1 in 31 starts for Lynn and 2.5 in 26 starts for Cobb.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2520&position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6562&position=P

 

Porcello is at least a year younger than Lynn and Cobb.

 

Porcello in Red Sox uniform is mediocre at very best thus far. His Cy Young season was a fluke year. You don’t need WAR to figure it out. The contract was a mistake since day one. Thus far in his career, he has FiVE seasons posting 4.5+ ERA (four of them around 5), one around 4.3, and only TWO under 4—one of them a fluke one. Porcello sucks, plain and simple. I said this since day one.

 

Said that, if he posts something around 4.0 ERA and improves his horrible 14.7 HR/FB, he’ll be a decent No. 4 for us. In my book Pom and Rodriguez should be ahead in the rotation.

Edited February 28, 2018 by iortiz

[harmony]

Porcello in Red Sox uniform is mediocre at very best thus far. His Cy Young season was a fluke year. You don’t need WAR to figure it out. The contract was a mistake since day one. Thus far in his career, he has FiVE seasons posting 4.5+ ERA (four of them around 5), one around 4.3, and only TWO under 4—one of the a fluke one. Porcello sucks, plain and simple. I said this since day one.

 

Said that, if he posts something around 4.0 ERA and improves his horrible 14.7 HR/FB, he’ll be a decent No. 4 for us. In my book Pom and Rodriguez should be ahead in the rotation.

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects 2018 WAR of 2.9 for Rick Porcello, 2.6 for Drew Pomeranz and 2.6 for Eduardo Rodriguez:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

Of course, Porcello is far more likely than Pomeranz or Rodriguez to pitch 200 innings this year.

 

ZiPS ranks Pomeranz, Porcello and Rodriguez in that order in projected 2018 WAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

[iortiz]

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects 2018 WAR of 2.9 for Rick Porcello, 2.6 for Drew Pomeranz and 2.6 for Eduardo Rodriguez:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

Of course, Porcello is far more likely than Pomeranz or Rodriguez to pitch 200 innings this year.

 

ZiPS ranks Pomeranz, Porcello and Rodriguez in that order in projected 2018 WAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

The thing with Pom and Rodriguez is their durability. If Pom and Rodriguez are healthy, they are way better than Porcello, and it’s not debatable.

 

Also, take those projections with a grain of salt my friend. They said that a Porcello was going to post something around 3.5 ERA last year and look how it ended up.

[iortiz]

I tell you this, if he ends up this season as a Cy Young candidate, I’ll forget him for his 2 atrocious seasons here LOL!

[harmony]

The thing with Pom and Rodriguez is their durability. If Pom and Rodriguez are healthy, they are way better than Porcello,

and it’s not debatable.

Also, take those projections with a grain of salt my friend. They said that a Porcello was going to post something around 3.5 ERA last year and look how it ended up.

You just made a projection whether consciously or subconsciously.

[jacksonianmarch]

Guys, the hot stove is over for Yanks and Sox. We got Drury and Stanton and returned CC and Tanaka

 

You got JD and returned Moreland and Nunez. The rest of the players out there will sign somewhere, but we cannot stay under the cap with the big names and you guys cannot stay out of the final penalty phase with them either.

[Bellhorn04]

4.6 era in 17 moon and his second strait dumpster fire playoff appearance ...soured me....The 21 million this year and 21 million next is disgusting .Moon you are right he's not a 5 era guy it was gross hyperbole but dammmmn that's a lot of money for average .....I just read this ....it's over the top .The man did win a CY and helped deliver 2 division titles ...He's not a garbage pitcher he's just a conundrum inside a tube stuffed and shot out of a cylinder....He's Clay 2.0 except clay was huge in the playoffs .

 

Full marks for this.

[Bellhorn04]

Rick Porcello has posted 7.1 fWAR, valued at $57.4 million, in the first two seasons of his four-year, $82.5 million contract. The right-hander posted 2.0 fWAR, valued at $16.3 million, last year.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project 2018 WAR of 2.5 in 29 starts for Porcello, 1.6 in 26 starts for Lance Lynn and 2.0 in 23 starts for Alex Cobb.

 

Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 2.4 in 29 starts for Porcello, 1.3 in 26 starts for Lynn and 1.7 in 23 starts for Cobb.

 

ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 2.7 in 30 starts for Porcello, 2.1 in 31 starts for Lynn and 2.5 in 26 starts for Cobb.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2520&position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6562&position=P

 

Porcello is at least a year younger than Lynn and Cobb.

 

I have a lot of respect for the advanced metrics. But Porcello's 2017 fWAR of 2.0 really seems bogus.

 

His 2017 bWAR was minus .2, which would give him a dollar value of...he owes us some money back.

[jacksonianmarch]

WAR has always struggled with starters. It seems to reward durability over productivity. A guy who can go 6IP a start and take the bump 33 times a season will always get high WAR marks regardless of effectiveness. Porcello was an innings eater last year, but to say he was worth 2 wins above replacement because he was durable really demeans the basis of a replacement level player.

[moonslav59]

WAR has always struggled with starters. It seems to reward durability over productivity. A guy who can go 6IP a start and take the bump 33 times a season will always get high WAR marks regardless of effectiveness. Porcello was an innings eater last year, but to say he was worth 2 wins above replacement because he was durable really demeans the basis of a replacement level player.

 

While I do agree, WAR rewards innings pitched too highly, there is tremendous value in getting that many innings from one guy. Replacement level players rarely give you 200+ innings at a 4.25 ERA (Porcello's career mark) and an occaisonal Cy Young Award.

[moonslav59]

I have a lot of respect for the advanced metrics. But Porcello's 2017 fWAR of 2.0 really seems bogus.

 

His 2017 bWAR was minus .2, which would give him a dollar value of...he owes us some money back.

 

He can pay back the money he owes from the bonus we'd have had to pay him for underpaying him in 2016 and maybe 2015.

[moonslav59]

Full marks for this.

 

You guys place too much value on just "what have you done for me recently".

 

A player's value is not set by one arbitrary sample size, such as just last season.

 

If that was the case, why weren't you guys suggesting we extend Porcello ay $25M per after 2016's Cy Young Award?

 

It seems like you selectively choose what previous from last years's samples to use based on whether you like a guy or not.

 

Porcello has been under 3.45 in 2 of his last 4 seasons and about replacement level the other two (with max innings), yet you want to attach a value of replacement level only.

 

With Boston, he's been a 5.5 bWar and 8.7 fWAR pitcher. Call him a 6.5 to 7.0, and one can argue he's worth every penny we've paid him so far. Even at 5.5, he's close....much closer than other Sox players more worthy of condemnation.

Edited February 28, 2018 by moonslav59

[notin]

The thing with Pom and Rodriguez is their durability. If Pom and Rodriguez are healthy, they are way better than Porcello, and it’s not debatable.

 

Also, take those projections with a grain of salt my friend. They said that a Porcello was going to post something around 3.5 ERA last year and look how it ende d up.

 

There is something to be said for durability. A player can have all the talent in the world and it does no good if he can't get on the fIeld. ...

[jacksonianmarch]

While I do agree, WAR rewards innings pitched too highly, there is tremendous value in getting that many innings from one guy. Replacement level players rarely give you 200+ innings at a 4.25 ERA (Porcello's career mark) and an occaisonal Cy Young Award.

 

I’m more talking about last year only

[Jack Flap]

The thing with Pom and Rodriguez is their durability. If Pom and Rodriguez are healthy, they are way better than Porcello, and it’s not debatable.

 

Also, take those projections with a grain of salt my friend. They said that a Porcello was going to post something around 3.5 ERA last year and look how it ended up.

 

I think that's absolutely debatable. Pomeranz had a fine year, and I still like Rodriguez's potential if he can ever make it through a full season without getting hurt, but neither is a lock to be better than Porcello by any means.

[iortiz]

While I do agree, WAR rewards innings pitched too highly, there is tremendous value in getting that many innings from one guy. Replacement level players rarely give you 200+ innings at a 4.25 ERA (Porcello's career mark) and an occaisonal Cy Young Award.

 

Porcello lives under the 7-run-rule shell moon. This is the reason he posts 200 IP every season. This doesn't bring value to the table; at least not for me.

 

He minimizes the chance to win a game every time he's on the mound —because he allows a lot of runs, and a lot of them via HR. Don't believe me? look at his W/L column in 2015 and 2017 —15 & 17 Ls respectively. This is not a fluke, moon.

[Bellhorn04]

With a pitcher like Porcello, Quality Starts and Quality Start % would be a meaningful stat, I think.

[iortiz]

There is something to be said for durability. A player can have all the talent in the world and it does no good if he can't get on the fIeld. ...

 

Well Pom in the last 2 years has posted 170+ IP with a great performance —3.32 ERA in both.

 

You can't ask more from him.

 

Who is indeed a concern is E-Rod, but he is only 24, so... hopefully he can stay healthy moving forward.

[harmony]

Porcello lives under the 7-run-rule shell moon. This is the reason he posts 200 IP every season. This doesn't bring value to the table; at least not for me.

 

He minimizes the chance to win a game every time he's on the mound —because he allows a lot of runs, and a lot of them via HR. Don't believe me? look at his W/L column in 2015 and 2017 —15 & 17 Ls respectively. This is not a fluke, moon.

The Red Sox have won 57.4 percent of Rick Porcello's 94 starts with the Sox:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/porceri01-pitch.shtml

Edited February 28, 2018 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

Rick Porcello has won 57.4 percent of his 94 starts with the Red Sox:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/porceri01-pitch.shtml

 

I don't think so. 42 wins, 36 losses, 16 no-decisions.