2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[baseball jones]

So expecting Mookie, JBJ, and Bogaerts to improve is just "busting out" but expecting Severino, Judge and Sanchez to improve is sheer homerism?

 

who cares about anyone on the yankees!

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Red Sox and Brandon Workman agreed to an $835K salary for 2018.

[mvp 78]

@BNightengale

 

Reliever Joe Kelly jumps up to one year, $3.825 million contract with #Redsox

 

@RobertMurrayFRS

 

Source: #RedSox, Jackie Bradley Jr. settle at $6,100,000, avoiding arbitration.

 

@alexspeier

 

Drew Pomeranz reaches an agreement with the Red Sox on an $8.5M deal for 2018.

[baseball jones]

So expecting Mookie, JBJ, and Bogaerts to improve is just "busting out" but expecting Severino, Judge and Sanchez to improve is sheer homerism?

 

to be fair to you,i didnt use any names in my post.all young guys go through this

[jacksonianmarch]

It wasn’t aimed at you actually, even though I responded to your post. There’s eternal optimism with the sox and pessimism towards the rival. It’s funny

[cp176]

It wasn’t aimed at you actually, even though I responded to your post. There’s eternal optimism with the sox and pessimism towards the rival. It’s funny

 

Really - Talksox - Red Sox forum -

 

I missed the part about being nice to Yankee fans when I registered. lol

[harmony]

White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu avoids arbitration by agreeing to a $13 million contract, nearly $5 million below the MLB Trade Rumors projection:

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/white-sox-jose-abreu-avoid-arbitration.html

 

I suspect the contract will attract renewed trade offers.

[moonslav59]

White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu avoids arbitration by agreeing to a $13 million contract, nearly $5 million below the MLB Trade Rumors projection:

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/white-sox-jose-abreu-avoid-arbitration.html

 

I suspect the contract will attract renewed trade offers.

 

Wow, who is Abreu's agent?

 

Sponge Bob Squarepants?

[moonslav59]

White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu avoids arbitration by agreeing to a $13 million contract, nearly $5 million below the MLB Trade Rumors projection:

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/white-sox-jose-abreu-avoid-arbitration.html

 

I suspect the contract will attract renewed trade offers.

 

It certainly make me want him more, but we already signed Moreland.

[moonslav59]

So expecting Mookie, JBJ, and Bogaerts to improve is just "busting out" but expecting Severino, Judge and Sanchez to improve is sheer homerism?

 

Your guys already busted out. They are due for a a dip.

 

All Sox players are due for huge bust outs this year.

 

So, to answer your question, "YES!"

[mvp 78]

It wasn’t aimed at you actually, even though I responded to your post. There’s eternal optimism with the sox and pessimism towards the rival. It’s funny

 

The only funny thing is a Yankees fan thinking that they will win the division this year when you haven't done so since Obama's first term.

 

Since the last time the Yanks won the division, the Sox have won the division 3 times and have a ring to go with it. We're the big dogs at the moment.

[harmony]

Wow, who is Abreu's agent?

 

Sponge Bob Squarepants?

Makes me wonder whether a trade is in place with a team that hopes to extend Jose Abreu.

 

The return the White Sox could receive in an Abreu trade just increased significantly.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Eduardo Rodriguez and the Sox agreed to a $2.375 million deal for 2018.

[baseball jones]

Wow, who is Abreu's agent?

 

Sponge Bob Squarepants?

 

you shouldnt insult spongebob that way

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Sandy Leon and the Red Six agreed to a $1.95 million deal for 2018.

[Kimmi]

Then there's that Seinfeld episode where George is told by the doctor that his test results are negative, and George is going 'Negative? Oh no, Lord, why me?'

 

And then there's flammable and inflammable meaning the same thing.

[Kimmi]

The problem with this is that players are not data. They are human. Sometimes player performance just falls off because of something as commonplace and not noteworthy as wear and tear. Their performance will not regress in a positive manner to meet the statistical mean. The application of the statistical notion of positive regression to player performance is nonsense.

 

Of course there are sometimes valid reasons why a player's performance falls off or improves, wherein regression would not apply. That goes without saying.

 

The concept of regression as it applies to player performance is far from nonsense.

[jacksonianmarch]

50 more runs with Pedey staring at a lengthy outage (I don't care what he says, he isn't making it back healthy by Opening day) and Hanley coming off bilateral shoulder surgeries and being a year older? Nobody knows what the mean is for the B's. Betts is the only one who has been all star level all 3 seasons in the majors. Bogey and Bradley are just as likely to stink as they are to be really good, and probably more likely to be somewhat of the same above average player they were last year. Asking the same old crew to return and increase their run total by 6-7% isn't realistic. If you are going to gain 50 runs as a team, youre going to need to add something else.

[mvp 78]

Sox file at 7.5

Betts files at 10.5

 

Up to arbitrator now.

[baseball jones]

50 more runs with Pedey staring at a lengthy outage (I don't care what he says, he isn't making it back healthy by Opening day) and Hanley coming off bilateral shoulder surgeries and being a year older? Nobody knows what the mean is for the B's. Betts is the only one who has been all star level all 3 seasons in the majors. Bogey and Bradley are just as likely to stink as they are to be really good, and probably more likely to be somewhat of the same above average player they were last year. Asking the same old crew to return and increase their run total by 6-7% isn't realistic. If you are going to gain 50 runs as a team, youre going to need to add something else.

 

we did his name is devers!

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox have saved $1.715 mil in pre arb signings per MLBTR projections. Betts' projection was $8.2 mil. The sox will either save $2.4 mil or be down $0.6 mil after arb with Betts

[jacksonianmarch]

we did his name is devers!

 

Will 100 games more from Devers offset the loss of Pedroia for however many games and add 50 runs on top of it? I don’t know. What we do know is more Devers in the field is going to mean a lot more runs given away

[Kimmi]

It's all guesswork.

 

Sure, it's guesswork, but there's a difference in the levels of guesswork. Teams are hiring stat geeks left and right, which means that teams must believe that their guesswork gives them an advantage.

[Kimmi]

No, because players are not instruments of statistical probability.

 

In a very simple and obvious example, let's say a .250 hitter hits .600 over a 10 game span. Is he going to continue hitting .600? No, he's going to hit closer to .250. That is regression.

 

Which, BTW, is also the reason why the 'hot hand' does not exist.

[baseball jones]

Will 100 games more from Devers offset the loss of Pedroia for however many games and add 50 runs on top of it? I don’t know. What we do know is more Devers in the field is going to mean a lot more runs given away

 

i couldnt disagree more.devers is in the mix of names like ted williams,mickey mantle,ect...as far as third base goes he'll get better he's only twenty.betts, bogearts,benintendi,and bradley can easily add 5 more each.i think they will add more than that though.

[Hitch]

@alexspeier

 

Red Sox and Brandon Workman agreed to an $835K salary for 2018.

 

I'm hopeful of good things from Workman this year. Always liked the kid.

[jacksonianmarch]

i couldnt disagree more.devers is in the mix of names like ted williams,mickey mantle,ect...as far as third base goes he'll get better he's only twenty.betts, bogearts,benintendi,and bradley can easily add 5 more each.i think they will add more than that though.

 

Did you just put Devers in the same class as Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle? You aren’t the same guy who said Lars Anderson would be a 20 time all star, are you?

[Kimmi]

And we are talking about a return to a career season. That’s not realistic IMO

 

Returning to a career season? No.

 

We are talking about regressing to the mean.

 

Mookie's career slash line is .292/.351/.488. Last year, he hit .264/.344/.459. Mookie is likely to regress this year and hit closer to that career line.

 

FTR, regression does not mean that if you flip a coin 100 times and you get 80 heads, that in the next 100 flips you will only get 20 heads to 'balance out' the 80 heads. It means that in the next 100 flips the number of heads that you get will be much closer to the expected number of 50.

[Kimmi]

@alexspeier

 

With today’s deadline to exchange arbitration figures, it’ll be a pretty chaotic day for the Red Sox, who have 10 unsigned arb-eligible players, including Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Pomeranz.

 

All arb eligible players were signed except for Mookie. He will be headed to an arbitration hearing.

[Kimmi]

True, but it doesn’t follow any rules of statistical science. That’s all that I am saying.

 

Yes, it does.