2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

I can't see Ellsbury waiving his no trade clause to go to the Os.

 

Ells can use his NTC all he wants, but all he will be is a punch runner and occasional starter in NY. If they find a deal for him where he’ll start, I doubt he’d turn it down

[Kimmi]

Fair enough, but I feel better about our rotation this year than I did last winter before the Sale trade.

 

Pom may regress, but you have to feel better about him now than last winter.

 

Yes, I feel worse about Porcello now than last January, but what about "positive regression?"

 

ERod is hurt, but we were sketchy about him last winter, too.

 

I feel better about Sale than I did about Price last winter.

 

That leaves Price as the wild card.

 

I do want another SP'er. I almost always do, and I'm never for adding a 5th starter and rarely a 4th starter either. Build from the top.

 

I just think the league is dominated by power hitters, and we are so far behind the curve, it is our top priority.

 

That being said, I would not be upset, if we sign Darvish and not JD.

 

If we are going to add another starter instead of adding JD, I most definitely want it to be a #2 type starter, not a #4/5.

 

Porcello will likely see some regression this season, but as I said, I don't have the confidence in him that I previously had. I always believed he was a #2 pitcher, but he has to get back to dominant sinker that he has.

[Kimmi]

5 years with a 6th year team option and buyout should do. The buyout will also lessen the luxury tax hit.

 

I said that I would be okay with that, as long as it's a straight team option and not a vesting option. That's essentially a 5 year deal, with the Red Sox being able to retain him for a 6th if he is still hitting.

 

I wonder if giving JD an opt out after 2 or 3 years will help to get it done.

[Kimmi]

I totally agree. I think we can rest Betts 5-7 games, Beni 6-8 games and JBJ 16-20 games (vs tough lefties). That could give JD up to 35 games in the OF without any injuries. (Brentz would be traded or phantom DL'd.)

 

If Moreland or HRam get hurt, JD can play FT DH.

 

Moreland plays 1B vs all RHPs. HRam plays 1B vs all RHPs and DHs the other JD is in the OF vs RHPs. That keeps HRam below 497 PAs and his vesting option.

 

Sounds reasonable to me.

[Elktonnick]

With Moreland on board, MM seems much less likely, unless we DH Devers and bench HRam.

 

I liked the idea of signing Moose and moving Devers to 1B.

 

I think if Martinez is signed the Sox will have to move HR. He simply won't get enough ABs to vest. Keeping him would give Cora a ticking time bomb in the clubhouse. For these reasons, I have come to the conclusion DD has made his stand on Martinez. JD either signs at DD's price or the Red Sox are prepared to go into the year with what they have got.

 

I believe DD's thinking is that the Sox will contend with this team plus a few minor adjustments. The thinking probably is that the Sox can always make a major acquisition in July as next year's free agent post season approaches when the really big fish will be in play. If Sox play as well as they should, additional bats should be available to help with any possible post season run. Keeping his powder dry now means the Sox will have the flexibility to make any needed moves later.

[Kimmi]

DD has boxed himself in a bit by resigning Moreland.

 

No, he hasn't. He has given himself a little more leverage.

[Kimmi]

I realize that the off season is not complete and that you take projections with a grain of salt, but on paper, Fangraphs currently has the Red Sox with the 3rd best offense in baseball, behind the Astros and the Yankees.

 

The Astros are projected to score 865 runs, the Yankees are projected to score 837.5 runs, and the Red Sox are projected to score 824.6 runs.

 

Despite the Yankees adding Stanton, they are projected to score fewer runs than they did last year. And despite the Red Sox being status quo so far, we are projected to score more runs than last year. It looks like the stat geeks believe there will be some regression from both teams, the Yankees in the negative direction and the Sox in the positive direction.

 

IMO, we don't need that big bat as much as most people think we do.

[Kimmi]

Ells can use his NTC all he wants, but all he will be is a punch runner and occasional starter in NY. If they find a deal for him where he’ll start, I doubt he’d turn it down

 

Of course I have no idea what's going on in Ells' mind, but perhaps he values the legit chance of winning another WS Ring over being a full time player. Also, he seems to think he can challenge for more playing time.

 

IMO, Ells is not waiving the no trade clause for a non contending, east coast team.

[mvp 78]

Ells can use his NTC all he wants, but all he will be is a punch runner and occasional starter in NY. If they find a deal for him where he’ll start, I doubt he’d turn it down

 

But if the Yankees are so great this year that they are guaranteed a ring, why would he consider leaving? Smarter play is to just sit back and collect those fat playoff checks.

 

The players' pool is formed from 50 percent of the gate receipts from the Wild Card Games; 60 percent of the gate receipts from the first three games of the Division Series; 60 percent of the gate receipts from the first four games of the League Championship Series; and 60 percent of the gate receipts from the first four games of the World Series. The players' pool was divided among the 10 Postseason Clubs: the two World Series participants, the two League Championship Series runners-up, the four Division Series runners-up and the two runners-up in the Wild Card Games. The 2017 players' pool was a record total of $84,500,432.15, eclipsing last year's $76,627,827.09.

 

60 Astros players made at least $439k from the playoffs last year.

[mvp 78]

I realize that the off season is not complete and that you take projections with a grain of salt, but on paper, Fangraphs currently has the Red Sox with the 3rd best offense in baseball, behind the Astros and the Yankees.

 

The Astros are projected to score 865 runs, the Yankees are projected to score 837.5 runs, and the Red Sox are projected to score 824.6 runs.

 

Despite the Yankees adding Stanton, they are projected to score fewer runs than they did last year. And despite the Red Sox being status quo so far, we are projected to score more runs than last year. It looks like the stat geeks believe there will be some regression from both teams, the Yankees in the negative direction and the Sox in the positive direction.

 

IMO, we don't need that big bat as much as most people think we do.

 

I'm not sure many people would be surprised if Judge has a big sophomore slump this year.

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure many people would be surprised if Judge has a big sophomore slump this year.

 

Exactly. And even if he doesn't have a 'big sophomore slump', it's very possible, likely even, that he's not as good as last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Exactly. And even if he doesn't have a 'big sophomore slump', it's very possible, likely even, that he's not as good as last year.

 

It's going to be hard for him to be as good as last season. I'd still think he can put up an easy .900+ OPS. He wont be a liability, lets put it that way. Even in his slumping second half, he put up a .939 OPS

[Kimmi]

It's going to be hard for him to be as good as last season. I'd still think he can put up an easy .900+ OPS. He wont be a liability, lets put it that way. Even in his slumping second half, he put up a .939 OPS

 

Oh, I agree. I don't think he'll be a liability. That wasn't my point.

 

My point is that with normal regression, the Yankees lineup may not be as lethal as you think it will be.

[jacksonianmarch]

Oh, I agree. I don't think he'll be a liability. That wasn't my point.

 

My point is that with normal regression, the Yankees lineup may not be as lethal as you think it will be.

 

You are a big fan of regression even when there isn't actual regression, lol. Greg Bird effectively missed 5 months. We lost Gregorius and Sanchez for a month. If we have good health, even if 2b and 3b are manned by kids, we should see a far better offense than the geeks are predicting. I also looked at the predictions for Judge on fangraphs. It's entirely ridiculous. They are predicting 38HRs but only an SLG of .518? They're saying he will hit near .260 but have an OBP of .360? This doesn't make sense.

Edited January 8, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[mvp 78]

You are a big fan of regression even when there isn't actual regression, lol. Greg Bird effectively missed 5 months. We lost Gregorius and Sanchez for a month. If we have good health, even if 2b and 3b are manned by kids, we should see a far better offense than the geeks are predicting. I also looked at the predictions for Judge on fangraphs. It's entirely ridiculous. They are predicting 38HRs but only an SLG of .518? They're saying he will hit near .260 but have an OBP of .360? This doesn't make sense.

 

 

Jacko is always a little bit crazier when the Yankees are better. This is good for TS.

[a700hitter]

 

Jacko is always a little bit crazier when the Yankees are better. This is good for TS.

Yankee fans are good losers, but obnoxious winners. Red Sox fans, generally are the opposite. We need to change that and really turn up the obnoxious attitude when we win. Otherwise, the Yankee fans always get the better of us.

[mvp 78]

Yankee fans are good losers, but obnoxious winners. Red Sox fans, generally are the opposite. We need to change that and really turn up the obnoxious attitude when we win. Otherwise, the Yankee fans always get the better of us.

 

As far as I know it's still our division to lose. The Sox own the AL East right now.

 

Since 2001:

 

Red Sox are 3 - 0 in WS appearances

Yankees are 1 - 2 in WS appearances

[mvp 78]

Remember when Josh Beckett won the WS with a complete game shut out in Yankee stadium?

[mvp 78]

In 2009, Game 7 of the 2001 World Series was chosen by Sports Illustrated as the Best Postseason Game of the Decade (2000–2009).

 

Can someone remind me what happened that game? I don't remember.

[a700hitter]

Remember when Josh Beckett won the WS with a complete game shut out in Yankee stadium?

That was a beautiful thing.

[cp176]

If the Sox were to sign both Martinez and Machado we would be hearing a lot less from our illustrious Yankee fan. Now, if the Yankees were to sign Machado and we stood pat you would be hearing a lot less from me. Might not be a bad thing! lol

[mvp 78]

If the Sox were to sign both Martinez and Machado we would be hearing a lot less from our illustrious Yankee fan. Now, if the Yankees were to sign Machado and we stood pat you would be hearing a lot less from me. Might not be a bad thing! lol

 

How often are MLB players traded for with a player extension already lined up? How would the Sox go about saying "we'll trade for Machado if we can guarantee he re-signs"?

[mvp 78]

@EvanDrellich

 

Source: Carson Smith, Red Sox agree to $850,000 salary for 2018, avoiding arbitration.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Sox were to sign both Martinez and Machado we would be hearing a lot less from our illustrious Yankee fan. Now, if the Yankees were to sign Machado and we stood pat you would be hearing a lot less from me. Might not be a bad thing! lol

 

You heard just as much from me the past few seasons even though I knew my team wasn't up to snuff. This offseason is a little different

[Bellhorn04]

You heard just as much from me the past few seasons even though I knew my team wasn't up to snuff. This offseason is a little different

 

Yes, you've got a boner like the Empire State Building LOL

[cp176]

You heard just as much from me the past few seasons even though I knew my team wasn't up to snuff. This offseason is a little different

 

oh no - You have been prolific this off season. I don't blame you necessarily and maybe it just feels like you have been. not a bad thing.

[cp176]

How often are MLB players traded for with a player extension already lined up? How would the Sox go about saying "we'll trade for Machado if we can guarantee he re-signs"?

 

 

I don't think that it would be imperative to sign him to an extension early.

[mvp 78]

Yes, you've got a boner like the Empire State Building LOL

 

[mvp 78]

I don't think that it would be imperative to sign him to an extension early.

 

You'd rather compete with 20+ other teams that would want him?

[cp176]

You'd rather compete with 20+ other teams that would want him?

 

I think that if we signed Martinez that there would be plenty of time to negotiate with him. The way I look at it the Sox will be competing financially next year for one of the big timers anyway so yup I would be ok with out having an extended contract waiting for him to sign. Obviously, I think that he is quite an upgrade over Bogaerts even if it is for just one year. Bogaerts is replaceable imo whether it is by signing Machado or someone else.