2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Fan_since_Boggs]

LOL, you know literally NOTHING about prospects yet you continue to pound that drum. You're absolutely hilarious. Time to renovate the bridge you are living under, you're gonna be there awhile.

 

You're a troll. Why don't you get out of here and join a Yankees board/forum. Let me guess: you stick around a Red Sox forum so you can act as a troll and get attention.

 

Only a troll would argue that Guzman is a better prospect than Groome or Chavis. No one in their right mind would think that--your real intentions are pretty obvious.

Edited December 10, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[harmony]

One blogger writes that Danny Valencia would be a "better fit" for the Red Sox than Eric Hosmer:

 

https://www.offthebenchbaseball.com/2017/12/06/danny-valencia-better-fit-red-sox-eric-hosmer/

[notin]

One blogger writes that Danny Valencia would be a "better fit" for the Red Sox than Eric Hosmer:

 

https://www.offthebenchbaseball.com/2017/12/06/danny-valencia-better-fit-red-sox-eric-hosmer/

 

But only in the same way that herpes would be a better fit than gonorrhea. I'd rather not have either one, but if someone FORCED me to choose one, and somehow forced me to forget about all the other options.

 

Also if this was a real world case, I'd want neither...

[moonslav59]

One blogger writes that Danny Valencia would be a "better fit" for the Red Sox than Eric Hosmer:

 

https://www.offthebenchbaseball.com/2017/12/06/danny-valencia-better-fit-red-sox-eric-hosmer/

 

Anybody is a better fit than Hosmer.

[Bellhorn04]

Yep, exactly.

 

BTW, a great article here.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2017/12/9/16756778/giancarlo-stanton-trade-miami-marlins-new-york-yankees-bruce-sherman

 

This is good stuff!

[Bellhorn04]

but only in the same way that herpes would be a better fit than gonorrhea. I'd rather not have either one, but if someone forced me to choose one, and somehow forced me to forget about all the other options.

 

Also if this was a real world case, i'd want neither...

 

lol

[Bellhorn04]

Anybody is a better fit than Hosmer.

 

LOL you really have it in for Hosmer.

[Kimmi]

This is good stuff!

 

This is one of those moves that is bad for baseball, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

This is one of those moves that is bad for baseball, IMO.

 

It's a bit ugly for sure.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Anybody is a better fit than Hosmer.

 

Over at Soxprospects, Eric Van is making the case for Hosmer. Two points. (1) Due to the 1b market glut, Eric Van claims that Hosmer will sign for less than 100 million. (2) He uses a lot of sabermetrics to defend signing him. His main point seems to boil down to: "He hits really well when he succeeds in going the other way, as he will try to do if he plays half his games in Fenway."

 

True, Eric Van is often wrong about things, but his stuff/commentary is interesting to read.

[moonslav59]

LOL you really have it in for Hosmer.

 

Put it this way, I'd rather have Hosmer over Moreland or Duda, IF THE WERE PAID THE SAME. (Not by much)

 

The pay and years will be very very different.

[moonslav59]

Over at Soxprospects, Eric Van is making the case for Hosmer. Two points. (1) Due to the 1b market glut, Eric Van claims that Hosmer will sign for less than 100 million. (2) He uses a lot of sabermetrics to defend signing him. His main point seems to boil down to: "He hits really well when he succeeds in going the other way, as he will try to do if he plays half his games in Fenway."

 

True, Eric Van is often wrong about things, but his stuff/commentary is interesting to read.

 

Most hitters are successful when they "go the other way" on the right pitches.

 

Here's one I just came up with: most hitters do very well, when they are on a hot streak.

[notin]

Per MLBTR, the Red Sox are talking to the Cubs about Kyle Schwarber.

 

This is not a good sign....

[jacksonianmarch]

Schwarber is a good get if you can get him. He’d be your DH for a decade

[notin]

Schwarber is a good get if you can get him. He’d be your DH for a decade

 

I'm losing faith in your ability to evaluate baseball players.

 

Kyle Schwarber isn't very good, despite whatr Cubs' fans think.

 

He's a three true outcome guy who will, until he actually tries to make an adjustment, spend his career hitting into the shift. His ceiling is Adam Dunn. Ceiling.

 

 

 

Also, he does not have 10 years of control left...

[notin]

Only a troll would argue that Guzman is a better prospect than Groome or Chavis.

 

Keith Law calld Guzman a "fringe prospect."

 

Chavis and Groome are "fringe top 100" prospects, even with Groome having very limited action so far.

 

This isn't even close...

[Larry Cook]

Groome had a rough year last year, he injured himself in the first game of the year and then his father ran into all kinds of legal trouble. That is a lot of a 17-18 year old to deal with.

 

However for a couple of weeks there, he showed us why he is a prospect. The ball jumps out of his hand. His stuff is beyond electric! His curveball could become kershaw like.

I saw him once on one of his best outings of the year and he blew me away with the movement on his stuff.

 

Yes he needs to work on control, but how many 18 year he olds don’t.

 

No player in the sox system has nearly as much upside as groome. The gamble for desperate Dave is if groome ever reaches his potential.

[jacksonianmarch]

Guzman sit at 100mph for 6 innings He tops out at 102mph. He can locate. He has a change and a breaking ball which are at least average. His only problem right now is proximity. Scout.com had him as our #4 prospect.

[oldtimer]

With the winter meetings on us and the Yankees making a big splash with Stanton, the clock is ticking on DD and as usual, he plays his cards close to his vest. Other than knowing he has said we need to fill our first base needs and we need a first baseman and probably a lefty reliever we really have no clear statement of what is to come. While we will probably exceed the luxury tax limit, we are still constrained with a few overlying contracts so cost is a consideration.

 

To fill first we could make a trade for Jose Abreu at a significant cost and get a very solid guy or go for Santana and get a good hitter but not the big bat we would like. Hosmer would be way down on my list. We still could be considering moving Devers to first and looking for a solid third baseman. Or, we could move Hanley to first and go for a big hitting DH. Lot of options here and the Devers move is in consideration of his weak defense at 3rd last year. In Hanley's case, many on the board would prefer he not play enough to vest in for 2019.

 

If we moved Devers could we get Donaldson, as he is rumored at being available at a high cost from the Jays. Moustakas is more likely, but his bat is not big enough.

 

Another possibility is to go and try to get Martinez and either play him in left, trade JBJ and move Beni to CF. The alternative is to move Martinez to DH and move Hanley into 1st base, while keeping our outfield intact, at least until the AS break where that could be reconsidered.

 

To me it seems with Abreu, Donaldson or Martinez that any one of those would push our cost up and we have to consider arbitration costs and pitching acquisitions. I can't see us getting two costly players this year as we still have to get past the Panda contract and see how we handle Hanley's $22 Mil. Good luck to DD as it will be no easy task to build a better team than we had last season.

[Station 13]

Schwarber is a good get if you can get him. He’d be your DH for a decade

 

lol I would f***ing hate that. Ryan Howard jr at best.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don’t agree that you’d hate it. Schwarber has a ridiculously unlucky 2017. Look at the numbers. In his 2015 campaign, he had a BABIP of .293 and put up a solid .246/.355/.487 as a rookie with 16HR in 273AB. Last year, he hit 30 homers and his walk rate was still good, but his BABIP dropped to .244. His K rate was pretty similar as well. He’s a candidate to hit .240-.260 and have a mid .800s OPS. He’s also only 24 and he’s been out of position.

 

Also, Ryan Howard used to be really good for a while there

[Nick]

I don’t agree that you’d hate it. Schwarber has a ridiculously unlucky 2017. Look at the numbers. In his 2015 campaign, he had a BABIP of .293 and put up a solid .246/.355/.487 as a rookie with 16HR in 273AB. Last year, he hit 30 homers and his walk rate was still good, but his BABIP dropped to .244. His K rate was pretty similar as well. He’s a candidate to hit .240-.260 and have a mid .800s OPS. He’s also only 24 and he’s been out of position.

 

Also, Ryan Howard used to be really good for a while there

 

I think Theo would do Schawrber E Rod straight up.

[jacksonianmarch]

He would. And I think Schwarber at DH will be very good for him

[harmony]

I think Theo would do Schawrber E Rod straight up.

The Cubs would likely balk at that trade because of injury concerns surrounding Eduardo Rodriguez.

 

Otherwise, Kyle Schwarber and Rodriguez, who were born a month apart, each remain under team control for four seasons. Steamer projects Rodriguez with a 2018 WAR of 0.7 in 11 starts and Schwarber with a 2018 WAR of 1.6 in 446 plate appearances. FanGraphs Depth Charts has Rodriguez at 0.7 WAR in 11 starts and Schwarber at 2.0 WAR in 455 plate appearances.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13164&position=P

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=OF

Edited December 10, 2017 by harmony

[Larry Cook]

One name no one's mentioning and with good reason is Miguel Cabrera.

 

He's signed the same years as Votto but for more money. He'll cost less in players to acquire. And while his contact is horrible, it was written by Dombrowski, so he might feel differently. ..

 

His bat speed is slowing down considerably. Is it because of injury or age?

[Station 13]

I think Theo would do Schawrber E Rod straight up.

 

It would be quite a heist.

[Station 13]

I don’t agree that you’d hate it. Schwarber has a ridiculously unlucky 2017. Look at the numbers. In his 2015 campaign, he had a BABIP of .293 and put up a solid .246/.355/.487 as a rookie with 16HR in 273AB. Last year, he hit 30 homers and his walk rate was still good, but his BABIP dropped to .244. His K rate was pretty similar as well. He’s a candidate to hit .240-.260 and have a mid .800s OPS. He’s also only 24 and he’s been out of position.

 

Also, Ryan Howard used to be really good for a while there

 

FWIW, Fangraphs project him for 1.6WAR with a slash line of .240 .339 .483 and 25HR next season. But a cost of an E-Rod, or Chavis, I would pass. Easily.

 

Duda, Morrison would be a better player to sign.

[Spudboy]

Moreland looks better each day.

[harmony]

FWIW, Fangraphs project him for 1.6WAR with a slash line of .240 .339 .483 and 25HR next season. But a cost of an E-Rod, or Chavis, I would pass. Easily.

 

Duda, Morrison would be a better player to sign.

To be precise, Steamer projects Kyle Schwarber with 1.6 WAR while FanGraphs Depth Charts project Schwarber with 2.0 WAR.

 

Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Eduardo Rodriguez with 0.7 WAR in 11 starts.

 

I suspect the Cubs would pass. Easily.

[Jasonbay44]

Not sure I would deal E-Rod for Schwarber, I'm learning towards no. I would rather have E-Rod and someone like Duda or Morrison than just Schwarber, but that's just my opinion.. and Ideally I don't want Duda or Morrison.