2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[a700hitter]

********. You never carry on and on about the same gripe for a whole season.

Not me. LOL! Sometimes for 5 years, but never a whole season.

[a700hitter]

This is a good point.

Blind squirrel theory.

[moonslav59]

The 2018 luxury tax figure for Jose Abreu, who is not under contract, would be his 2018 salary, which is projected at $17.9 million.

 

The AAV calculation applies only to multiyear contracts.

 

I missed the opt out clause he had in his contract.

 

I would not give up too much for a $17M 1Bman.

 

I like him better than Santana & Hosmer, but the prospects going to Chicago would outweigh the QO penalties, IMO.

[a700hitter]

Jose Abreu, under team control for two years with a projected 2018 salary of $17.9 million, may well have more surplus value than Giancarlo Stanton, who has 10 years and $295 million remaining on his contract with a no-trade clause and a potential opt-out after the 2020 season.

 

In a trade Abreu could cost more in terms of talent.

if we trade for Abreu (most likely Bradley), we would slide Betts or Benintendi to CF and we would have the money to sign JD and a spot for him in LF. That would be a solid offense. HanRam DH’s and ocassionally plays 1B.

[harmony]

Stanton will opt out in 3 years. Stanton's asking price has been noted as being high. At least kick the tires, which is what the Sox are rightfully doing. I would be shocked if the talks between the terms were moving along and the Sox said "well, let's just trade MORE assets for Abreu than we would have for Stanton."

Jose Abreu would have no guaranteed salary, only what amounts to a projected $17.9 million team option for 2018 and a team option for a likely higher salary for the final year of team control in 2019. Abreu does not have a no-trade protection. A team that acquires Abreu in a trade assumes little risk.

 

Giancarlo Stanton is guaranteed $77 million over the next three years but could opt for a guaranteed additional $218 million over the next seven seasons. All risks fall on the team's side of the ledger.

[Spudboy]

With all due respect, it was about 2 years ago, not three when DD took over.

 

My point is easy to understand. Kopech has not been on the verge of promotion and daily use in the bigs. He never has been.

[moonslav59]

My point is easy to understand. Kopech has not been on the verge of promotion and daily use in the bigs. He never has been.

 

I never said he was ML ready. I said he was close to ML ready. That's pretty easy to understand, too. It's also a bit subjective.

 

We can argue if 2-3 years is "close" or not. I think close is a year or two away maybe up to 3 years. I don't count the first year, because the first year is ML ready.

 

I'm fine with anyone who thinks he was not close. 2/12 to 3 years is not 1-2 years.

[moonslav59]

if we trade for Abreu (most likely Bradley), we would slide Betts or Benintendi to CF and we would have the money to sign JD and a spot for him in LF. That would be a solid offense. HanRam DH’s and ocassionally plays 1B.

 

I'd hate to trade JBJ and pay $18M for Abreu.

 

I think the CWS would want prospects.

[mvp 78]

I'd hate to trade JBJ and pay $18M for Abreu.

 

I think the CWS would want prospects.

 

I've heard that the Giants have interest in JBJ, but haven't heard anything about the ChiSox.

[moonslav59]

I've heard that the Giants have interest in JBJ, but haven't heard anything about the ChiSox.

 

The CWS are rebuilding and cutting costs. JBJ has one more year of control than Abreu. JBJ will likely have high arb numbers in the next 2 years.

 

If we trade for Abreu, it might be Travis (or Ockimey), Groome and Beeks, or something like that.

[Kimmi]

Actually my criticism of DD is he does everything short term and doesn't try to get a steady stream of MLB talent in the pipeline like Scherholz did and Cherington was trying to do. Yes he can get you to the table a few times, but it can also have a very poor showing afterwards, like Detroit (worst record in the AL last year with a high payroll built on his contracts).

 

If/when Boston has a similar funk, I trust you will be as disparaging of Dombrowski as you are of Cherington. Otherwise THAT would be hypocritical...

 

Agreed. I don't blame Dombrowski for the team not winning a championship. I blame him for his short term or 'win now at the expense of the future' philosophy, precisely because the playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

If Dombrowski's short sighted vision guaranteed us a championship, I'd be all in. And if we win a ring in the next 2 years, then Dombrowski's moves will have been worth it.

[Kimmi]

true. But when those 3 years are up after this season, then what?

 

the cliff!!!

[Kimmi]

I onderstaand your point. You have expressed it clearly on numerous occasions. It wasn't as obvious to me that resetting the luxury tax was as big a deal to JH than some here at talksox think it was or want it to be.

 

Of course resetting the tax was a big deal to Henry.

[moonslav59]

the cliff!!!

 

The "cliff" does not start after 2018, when we lose Kimbrel, Pom and Porcello. (Sale's time is up after 2019.)

 

Most believers in the cliff think 2020 or 2021 will mark the beginning of the end of a highly compeitive team.

[Kimmi]

There's no way to really say that for sure.

 

No, but I'm very confident in making that statement. Extremely confident.

[Kimmi]

This is a good point.

 

No, it's not. Because Dombrowski is not being criticized for consistently getting a team to the crap table. It's a strawman argument.

[moonslav59]

Of course resetting the tax was a big deal to Henry.

 

If we do indeed go over the limit by $20-39M this year, resetting the tax will save Henry millions and millions of dollars.

 

Of course it matters.

[Kimmi]

The "cliff" does not start after 2018, when we lose Kimbrel, Pom and Porcello. (Sale's time is up after 2019.)

 

Most believers in the cliff think 2020 or 2021 will mark the beginning of the end of a highly compeitive team.

 

Oh, I agree that our window goes beyond 2018. I just couldn't resist.

[Bellhorn04]

Ben Cherington is gone and he won't be back. No use pining for his return. He is the vice president of baseball operations for the Blue Jays, and I suspect he's quite happy in that type of position. Probably a lot better for the mental health.

 

Might as well support Dombrowski in the meantime.

 

"The above is strictly my own personal viewpoint and not intended to be a criticism of anyone else's opinion."

[moonslav59]

Oh, I agree that our window goes beyond 2018. I just couldn't resist.

 

Well, the loss of the prospects used to get Kimbrel and Pom are part of the window closing a year or two after their time is up. They are related...just not immediately.

[cp176]

Of course resetting the tax was a big deal to Henry.

 

It very well might have been. I'm not arguing that. Key for me here is the word might. I'm not pretending to know what John Henry is willing to spend nor am I pretending to know how he feels about the luxury tax. It actually really means very little to me but I am humored by how some seem to think they know just how this billionaire feels.

[cp176]

Ben Cherington is gone and he won't be back. No use pining for his return. He is the vice president of baseball operations for the Blue Jays, and I suspect he's quite happy in that type of position. Probably a lot better for the mental health.

 

Might as well support Dombrowski in the meantime.

 

"The above is strictly my own personal viewpoint and not intended to be a criticism of anyone else's opinion."

 

Getting to the point that you just have to add that little piece in bold type don't you think? Pretty much how I feel as well.

[a700hitter]

No, it's not. Because Dombrowski is not being criticized for consistently getting a team to the crap table. It's a strawman argument.

You are taking the post too literally. Let me restate. He is not being criticized for "consistently getting a team to the crap table". He is being criticized despite "consistently getting a team to the crap table", and getting to the crap table consistently is the stated goal of many posters.

[moonslav59]

Some who are critical of DD are concerned that getting to the "crap table" long term was sacrificed in order to give us a shorter term of going to the crap table with a better chance at winning within a 3-4 year window.

 

I, for one, do think we have less of a chance from 2020 or 2021 forward for a couple years or so, but I'm fine with going for it all as long as it wasn't just for a 1 to 2 year shot.

 

If the goal is just to get to the playoffs as many years as possible, then I can certainly sympathize with those who feel we did not need to trade as many prospects as we did to still make the playoffs in 2016, 2017 and theoretically 2018 and 2019.

 

Other seem to just criticize any GM no matter what they do.

 

[a700hitter]

Some who are critical of DD are concerned that getting to the "crap table" long term was sacrificed in order to give us a shorter term of going to the crap table with a better chance at winning within a 3-4 year window.

 

I, for one, do think we have less of a chance from 2020 or 2021 forward for a couple years or so, but I'm fine with going for it all as long as it wasn't just for a 1 to 2 year shot.

 

If the goal is just to get to the playoffs as many years as possible, then I can certainly sympathize with those who feel we did not need to trade as many prospects as we did to still make the playoffs in 2016, 2017 and theoretically 2018 and 2019.

 

Other seem to just criticize any GM no matter what they do.

 

No GM is perfect. They are all subject to criticism.

[cp176]

Some who are critical of DD are concerned that getting to the "crap table" long term was sacrificed in order to give us a shorter term of going to the crap table with a better chance at winning within a 3-4 year window.

 

I, for one, do think we have less of a chance from 2020 or 2021 forward for a couple years or so, but I'm fine with going for it all as long as it wasn't just for a 1 to 2 year shot.

 

If the goal is just to get to the playoffs as many years as possible, then I can certainly sympathize with those who feel we did not need to trade as many prospects as we did to still make the playoffs in 2016, 2017 and theoretically 2018 and 2019.

 

Other seem to just criticize any GM no matter what they do.

 

 

Some of us might not see things the same way that you and a very few others do. It is a wonderful thing to be entitled to an opinion. You and a few others come off quite often as sounding like you are right and that there just isn't any other way to look at things. Sadly, on occasion, it does come off as sounding condescending. Personally, I'm ok with that because I am confident that the people posting here really don't know what will ultimately happen. I am just a fan. I do not believe in fictional things such as cliffs. As I have been informed on numerous occasions, I am short sighted and I just fail to see the future as it actually is. That is ok as well - I am just a fan who really doesn't claim to be an expert at really anything. What I do honestly believe is that I know as much about the actual gamel and how it is played as anyone posting here does. That is what matters to me. Starting to sound like a case of apple trees and fir trees to me. Sadly, it seems, we are taking sides.

[S5Dewey]

Getting to the point that you just have to add that little piece in bold type don't you think? Pretty much how I feel as well.

 

Yep

[S5Dewey]

Some of us might not see things the same way that you and a very few others do. It is a wonderful thing to be entitled to an opinion. You and a few others come off quite often as sounding like you are right and that there just isn't any other way to look at things. Sadly, on occasion, it does come off as sounding condescending. Personally, I'm ok with that because I am confident that the people posting here really don't know what will ultimately happen. I am just a fan. I do not believe in fictional things such as cliffs. As I have been informed on numerous occasions, I am short sighted and I just fail to see the future as it actually is. That is ok as well - I am just a fan who really doesn't claim to be an expert at really anything. What I do honestly believe is that I know as much about the actual gamel and how it is played as anyone posting here does. That is what matters to me. Starting to sound like a case of apple trees and fir trees to me. Sadly, it seems, we are taking sides.

 

Yep again.

[moonslav59]

Some of us might not see things the same way that you and a very few others do. It is a wonderful thing to be entitled to an opinion. You and a few others come off quite often as sounding like you are right and that there just isn't any other way to look at things. Sadly, on occasion, it does come off as sounding condescending. Personally, I'm ok with that because I am confident that the people posting here really don't know what will ultimately happen. I am just a fan. I do not believe in fictional things such as cliffs. As I have been informed on numerous occasions, I am short sighted and I just fail to see the future as it actually is. That is ok as well - I am just a fan who really doesn't claim to be an expert at really anything. What I do honestly believe is that I know as much about the actual gamel and how it is played as anyone posting here does. That is what matters to me. Starting to sound like a case of apple trees and fir trees to me. Sadly, it seems, we are taking sides.

 

I don't mean to sound condescending. I do find it hard to believe some feel our future will not be affected by trading away so many of our top prospects in such a short period of time, especially from a farm that was ranked so highly- not by just me but by many national services.

 

I'm fine with those who believe we can and will find other ways to stay competitive or those who feel it isn't worth thinking so far ahead when it's so hard to project anything in baseball.

 

I will sat sometimes I feel some who disagree with those who believe in some sort of cliff can come off as condescending as well.

 

I for one, am happy we have different viewpoints, and I respect just about everyone's opinions on this site- even ones I often disgaree with.

 

[moonslav59]

No GM is perfect. They are all subject to criticism.

 

I totally agree, and although I come off as being a Ben defender or apologist, I was red hot against the Pablo signing from day one. I was also against the HRam signing but understood the reasoning behind it.

 

I was against the Vic & Dempster signings. I despised the Masterson signing.

 

I disliked more trades and signings than I liked, but to me, the way Ben built up the farm was pretty impressive. Was it enough to offset the bad? probably not, at least during his tenure as GM, but his strength area was the future, and he left before his plan really had a chance to come to fruition.

 

I disliked many of Theo's moves, especially after the Nomar deal. I've disliked many of DDs moves,

 

I haven't called for a GM's head since Haywood Sullivan. I wasn;t sad to see Lou Gorman go, but I wasn't ever calling for his head.