2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[OH FOY]

Go by teams needs on trades, WAR and Fangraphs, mean crap. Team Trade because they have a weakness in one area, and strength in another. If teams used numbers all the time, you never get Trades done.

Hire a accountant to be a GM, don't need any baseball background. Cheaper.

Christ sakes use your eyes, Benni way more athletic than Schwarber, he can do more in a season that don't show up on stats, that will win you games. Backing up an Outfileder, going from 1st to third, more often. Or are these on stats too.

Edited November 2, 2017 by OH FOY!

[harmony]

Go by teams needs on trades, WAR and Fangraphs, mean crap. Team Trade because they have a weakness in one area, and strength in another. If teams used numbers all the time, you never get Trades done.

Hire a accountant to be a GM, don't need any baseball background. Cheaper.

The Red Sox need a first baseman; the Baltimore Orioles have several.

 

The Orioles need pitching; the Red Sox have several pitchers.

 

Chris Davis for Drew Pomeranz?

 

Who needs numbers when the needs are met?

[illinoisredsox]

The Red Sox need a first baseman; the Baltimore Orioles have several.

 

The Orioles need pitching; the Red Sox have several pitchers.

 

Chris Davis for Drew Pomeranz?

 

Who needs numbers when the needs are met?

 

Meh. Pass on Davis. People here complained about Pedroia's .760 OPS last year, Davis managed a .732 and that's with hitting 26 homers. Heck, Hanley put up a .750. Davis also has a contract that runs through 2022 at an average value of $23Mper ($161M for 7 years) and he's trended down offensively the last couple years. This one will end very ugly. The Sox can do better.

[harmony]

Meh. Pass on Davis. People here complained about Pedroia's .760 OPS last year, Davis managed a .732 and that's with hitting 26 homers. Heck, Hanley put up a .750. Davis also has a contract that runs through 2022 at an average value of $23Mper ($161M for 7 years) and he's trended down offensively the last couple years. This one will end very ugly. The Sox can do better.

I thought the sarcasm emoji pointed to the tongue-in-cheek nature of my response.

[Spudboy]

I thought the sarcasm emoji pointed to the tongue-in-cheek nature of my response.

 

Lol. I missed the emoji and just figured you had not had your coffee yet!

 

But no on Davis. Bigly.

[notin]

Go by teams needs on trades, WAR and Fangraphs, mean crap. Team Trade because they have a weakness in one area, and strength in another. If teams used numbers all the time, you never get Trades done.

Hire a accountant to be a GM, don't need any baseball background. Cheaper.

Christ sakes use your eyes, Benni way more athletic than Schwarber, he can do more in a season that don't show up on stats, that will win you games. Backing up an Outfileder, going from 1st to third, more often. Or are these on stats too.

 

I really doubt team make trades based solely on needs and surpluses. It might not be fWAR, but some sort of player evaluation is essential.

 

fWAR is a handy and accessible tool we have on this board. But even with that as a soft standard for player performance and capability, there are always other factors. Two easy ones we all know are salary/ contract and years of control.

 

I once heard Keith Law discuss how trades happen. The very first step is contract review for any player you're interested in. I actually think that this is why some GMs appear obsessed with some playets. Stories get out about contract requests and if no deal gets done at that time, it gets revisited later, when contract review can be skipped...

[sk7326]

Go by teams needs on trades, WAR and Fangraphs, mean crap. Team Trade because they have a weakness in one area, and strength in another. If teams used numbers all the time, you never get Trades done.

Hire a accountant to be a GM, don't need any baseball background. Cheaper.

Christ sakes use your eyes, Benni way more athletic than Schwarber, he can do more in a season that don't show up on stats, that will win you games. Backing up an Outfileder, going from 1st to third, more often. Or are these on stats too.

 

Most teams use WAR, but their own proprietary flavor ... of course you knew that.

[harmony]

The MLB Trade Rumors predictions have the Red Sox signing free agents J.D. Martinez, Logan Morrison and Bryan Shaw:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

[harmony]

The MLB Trade Rumors predictions have the Red Sox signing free agents J.D. Martinez, Logan Morrison and Bryan Shaw:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

The MLBTR predictions would add $44 million AAV to the Ref Sox payroll.

Edited November 2, 2017 by harmony

[Jack Flap]

There's already a lot of early buzz connecting Hosmer to the Red Sox...

 

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-red-sox-expected-to-target-eric-hosmer-this-winter/

[jacksonianmarch]

I really hope you sign him to a huge deal. He’s got disaster in Fenway written all over him

[mvp 78]

Never Hosmer.

[moonslav59]

Never Hosmer.

 

I'm driving that wagon!

[notin]

I'm driving that wagon!

 

I'm predicting it gets driven down Yawkey Way. Sorry...

[moonslav59]

I'm predicting it gets driven down Yawkey Way. Sorry...

 

Say it ain't so!

[notin]

Say it ain't so!

 

I'll try to jinx it by making that call in the MLBTR Free Agent contest. But I'm afraid that's the best I can do (although history will tell you it can be pretty effective)...

[Dojji]

Hosmer averaged just under 3 WAR a year for the last 3 years... not seeing the angst. Stanton and Votto are not walking through that door people. We don't have the assets to make the best offer for either one of those two men, that's just a fact. Pick your poison from the next tier down, and of those guys (Duda/Alonso/Hosmer) Hosmer is the best overall choice.

 

If you don't go after one of those FA first basemen then you're leaning the fortunes of the entire franchise on Sam Travis making that next step on demand next year, and I just don't see it. If we don't sign someone, Travis is your guy, you're not gonna put Hanley out there everyday and we have. NO. ONE. ELSE.

 

I think Travis is close to being a productive first baseman, but I sure as heck wouldn't count on him to hold down the job full time next year, sight unseen. We gotta get someone, and that means we have to set our sights on attainable guys. If we had a secure plan B I could see going hell for leather in the pursuit of a fantasy, but we need to be pragmatic now and secure our position at first base. That means Duda, Alonso, Hosmer, or improbably Moustakas (improbably because I think he can make more dosh as a third sacker), is coming through that door. Take your pick.

 

Of that group of players. I really do feel that the safe money is on Hosmer, with Duda as Plan B.

Edited November 4, 2017 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

I'll try to jinx it by making that call in the MLBTR Free Agent contest. But I'm afraid that's the best I can do (although history will tell you it can be pretty effective)...

 

Do whatever it takes.

 

What are your thoughts on this...

 

$17M x 5 Moustakas (Move Devers to 1B)

$12M x 4 Alex Cobb

$7M x 3 Bryan Shaw

$6M x 2 Jarrod Dyson

 

[notin]

Do whatever it takes.

 

What are your thoughts on this...

 

$17M x 5 Moustakas (Move Devers to 1B)

$12M x 4 Alex Cobb

$7M x 3 Bryan Shaw

$6M x 2 Jarrod Dyson

 

 

Moustakas is a tough call for me. I'd prefer Santana. Although that deal lacks the crippling potential of JD Martinez, but at least Martinez gives RHH power and is less likely to spend all 5 years hitting in to a shift.

 

Pass on Cobb. Really good pitcher. Really bad health.

 

Love Shaw. And Dombrowski does go get a new set up guy every year. But if we get him, does it jinx his "Never been on the DL" track record?

 

Pass on Dyson. Keep the outfield intact. Dyson is just a cheaper version of Rusney Castillo with more steals.

[notin]

Hosmer averaged just under 3 WAR a year for the last 3 years... not seeing the angst. Stanton and Votto are not walking through that door people. We don't have the assets to make the best offer for either one of those two men, that's just a fact. Pick your poison from the next tier down, and of those guys (Duda/Alonso/Hosmer) Hosmer is the best overall choice.

 

If you don't go after one of those FA first basemen then you're leaning the fortunes of the entire franchise on Sam Travis making that next step on demand next year, and I just don't see it. If we don't sign someone, Travis is your guy, you're not gonna put Hanley out there everyday and we have. NO. ONE. ELSE.

 

I think Travis is close to being a productive first baseman, but I sure as heck wouldn't count on him to hold down the job full time next year, sight unseen. We gotta get someone, and that means we have to set our sights on attainable guys. If we had a secure plan B I could see going hell for leather in the pursuit of a fantasy, but we need to be pragmatic now and secure our position at first base. That means Duda, Alonso, Hosmer, or improbably Moustakas (improbably because I think he can make more dosh as a third sacker), is coming through that door. Take your pick.

 

Of that group of players. I really do feel that the safe money is on Hosmer, with Duda as Plan B.

 

The big issue with Hosmer is that the "safe money" might be 7 years $154mill. Is that 3 fWAR money?

[moonslav59]

Moustakas is a tough call for me. I'd prefer Santana. Although that deal lacks the crippling potential of JD Martinez, but at least Martinez gives RHH power and is less likely to spend all 5 years hitting in to a shift.

 

Pass on Cobb. Really good pitcher. Really bad health.

 

Love Shaw. And Dombrowski does go get a new set up guy every year. But if we get him, does it jinx his "Never been on the DL" track record?

 

Pass on Dyson. Keep the outfield intact. Dyson is just a cheaper version of Rusney Castillo with more steals.

 

Dyson as the 4th Of'er....maybe there are better choices.

[Dojji]

Do whatever it takes.

 

What are your thoughts on this...

 

$17M x 5 Moustakas (Move Devers to 1B)

 

I like it, actually. Devers is young enough to adapt. It's a solid plan if the FO go for it.

 

$12M x 4 Alex Cobb

NFW. Cobb just 12-10 3.66 over 180 innings. He has some injury concerns that knock his price down a bit but if you want him because you want to roll the dice on him being a solid #3 starter, you pay #3 money, and in this day and age, that doesn't start at 12M. Try 18. Maybe as low as 15 with his injury history, but the market for pitching is always a buyer's market, and the market has gone up by leaps and bounds because of the league revenue bubble, that is going to affect the price of pitching.

 

On board with the idea in general. Cobb will be in demand though, definitely, you're not going to get him for 12M/year.

$7M x 3 Bryan Shaw

Looking at Shaw's innings load over the last 4 years, there's a voice in the back of my mind saying "DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER!"

 

Really concerned about a guy like Shaw being allowed to hit the market. Midmarket teams don't usually let their workhorse relievers test the market unless they think the arm is just about used up. The scrapyard guys yeah, but not the meat-and-potatoes guys like Shaw. Middle relief is too critical. There's something about this situation we don't know and Shaw is about to make a sucker of someone IMHO, hope it isn't us.

 

$6M x 2 Jarrod Dyson

 

Used to be all over Dyson, but we've already got one of the fastest outfields in the league. Not seeing the need. I'd rather have a thumper on the bench.

 

Besides, check Dyson's bWAR. Dyson is averaging well over 2 WAR a year. Someone who's paying attention is going to sign that man cheap to be their starting CF

Edited November 4, 2017 by Dojji
Got a number wrong

[Dojji]

The big issue with Hosmer is that the "safe money" might be 7 years $154mill. Is that 3 fWAR money?

 

It's a sellers' market. Anyone we pick up is going to be expensive. The question we need to be asking is which player is likely to pay off. What's worth more, sinking a lot of money into a 27 year old hitter just coming into his prime, or the only alternative 1B I've seen (Duda) who's a 24 year old hitter just leaving his prime.

 

I mean do a bWAR comparison between Duda and Hosmer and there is no comparison, Hosmer is far better, he's the best available FA 1B and also the youngest.

 

The only thing muddying the water is the fact that the idea of grabbing Moustakas and sliding Devers over has a potentially higher upside. Moonslav is right, that would be a savvy move, and it would probably give us a substantial improvement in overall infield defense to go with the modest offensive upgrade. The issue with Moose is, the offensive upgrade would be very modest indeed. Moose isn't nearly the hitter Hosmer is at his best, and we struggled all year long at generating offense, which is why we're looking for a big FA upgrade in the first place.

 

If goal #1 is to improve the offense first and foremost, Hosmer is the best option -- you can call him the least bad option if it makes you feel better, but the FO is absolutely right to go after him.

[Dojji]

Moustakas is a tough call for me. I'd prefer Santana. Although that deal lacks the crippling potential of JD Martinez, but at least Martinez gives RHH power and is less likely to spend all 5 years hitting in to a shift.

 

Pass on Cobb. Really good pitcher. Really bad health.

 

Love Shaw. And Dombrowski does go get a new set up guy every year. But if we get him, does it jinx his "Never been on the DL" track record?

 

Pass on Dyson. Keep the outfield intact. Dyson is just a cheaper version of Rusney Castillo with more steals.

 

You're very wrong about Jarrod Dyson. He's so good defensively he makes a lot of wins with his glove, enough to justify his job. By bWAR Dyson has averaged between 2.2 and 3.1 wins a year. fWAR the same, 2.5-3.1 with 1 outlier at 1.8.

 

For point of reference, a solid contribution to the team is 2 WAR. Only 8 Red Sox players exceeded that value this season. If Jarrod Dyson had done his thing for us this year, his 2.6 bWAR would have tied him with Andrew Benintendi for 6th highest on a division-pennant team and only 0.2 bWAR behind JBJ. Dyson is a GOOD player, VERY good if you add up everything he does. He just doesn't hit that much.

 

Long story short, if some team doesn't make a starting CF out of Jarrod Dyson, all that talk about the age of analytics is so much nonsense. He's got what it takes to add value to any team in this league that has a hole there.

Edited November 4, 2017 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

The only thing muddying the water is the fact that the idea of grabbing Moustakas and sliding Devers over has a potentially higher upside. Moonslav is right, that would be a savvy move, and it would probably give us a substantial improvement in overall infield defense to go with the modest offensive upgrade. The issue with Moose is, the offensive upgrade would be very modest indeed. Moose isn't nearly the hitter Hosmer is at his best, and we struggled all year long at generating offense, which is why we're looking for a big FA upgrade in the first place. -DOJI

 

I understand how the 38 HRs by Moustakas this year could be viewed as an outlier, but Hosmer is not the model of consistency, and his 2017 season is kind of out of whack with his career, too.

 

OPS is not everything, and OBP is more valuable than SLG, but we really need slugging.

 

OPS

2017:

.882 Hosmer (.179 ISO)

.835 Moose (.249 ISO)

 

2016-2017:

.830 Moose (.250 ISO)

.822 Hosmer (.173 ISO)

 

2015-2017:

Moose .824 (.221 ISO)

Hosmer .822 (.169 ISO)

 

It looks like Hosmer's 2017 could be more of an outlier than Moose's.

 

All in all, Hosmer looks like a better all around hitter than Moose, and he's about a year younger, but we need a clean-up hitter with power, so I like Moose over hoze.

 

The money and years commitment makes it a no brainer, to me.

 

[Dojji]

I don't want to throw stones at Mike Moustakas. He's a great player, a very good third baseman and a strong hitter. But the man has only had 2 years of solid WAR production in his entire life by fWAR, and only one by bWAR. Even with the weak 2016 performance Hosmer has been WAY more consistent in his career than Moustakas offensively.

 

Again, I love the idea of signing Moustakas, but if the idea is to upgrade the offense first and foremost, Moustakas is the lesser upgrade. Moustakas only ever had one year with a higher OPS+ than Hosmer, and that was his injury-stunted 2016 campaign.

[Bellhorn04]

It looks like Martinez and Hosmer will be roughly the same price.

[jacksonianmarch]

You can get a good D 1b for cheap. You need power. Your pitching has enough question marks that you cannot expect a repeat performance, although it’s possible. DD has to mitigate pitching risk with more offense. Moustakas brings power but no OBP to speak of. Hosmer doesn’t have the power you need and his defense is suspect. He has a chance to be worse than Moreland in 2018-beyond. You need Martinez

[Dojji]

Martinez is a red herring if the question is about upgrading 1B. We reset the cap penalty, so we can probably afford Martinez and a good 1B if we really wanted to.

[jacksonianmarch]

Martinez can play 1b.