2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[moonslav59]

So?

 

JD didn't become a full time player until 2014.

 

True, but it doesn't bother you that he's only played more than 123 games once?

 

Look, I'm all for signing JD, and that's probably a better choice than trading a big package for Stanton, but when people question Stanton's history, I felt I should bring up the fact that he compares favorably to JD on that front.

 

The last 4 years are pretty close though, with JD doing slightly better.

 

JD since 2014: 123, 158, 120 and 119

GS since 2014: 145, 74, 119 and 159

 

JD with 33 more games.

 

Last 2 years: GS with 39 more games.

 

BTW, JD did go on the DL with a sprained wrist in 2013 from 7/27 to 9/13, and that same year he sprained his knee and went on the DL from 4/20 to 5/7, so his pre-2014 history is not snow white.

 

Edited October 23, 2017 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Not worried about JD’s injury history.

[jacksonianmarch]

Stanton was hit in the face in the season he played only 74 games. Not sure if you should really count that in a durability comparison since no player takes a ball off the face and plays right away

[Nick]

Stanton was hit in the face in the season he played only 74 games. Not sure if you should really count that in a durability comparison since no player takes a ball off the face and plays right away

 

please don't ruin a narrative based on false assumptions...

[jacksonianmarch]

JD has an injury history similar to another JD the sox had....

 

But who cares. You put him at DH and he likely extends his durability. Also, he costs only money. He doesn't even have draft pick comp tied to him. His big power bat in Fenway would be exactly what you need to rebound your moribund offense

[Bellhorn04]

JD has an injury history similar to another JD the sox had....

 

But who cares. You put him at DH and he likely extends his durability. Also, he costs only money. He doesn't even have draft pick comp tied to him. His big power bat in Fenway would be exactly what you need to rebound your moribund offense

 

'Rebound the moribund' - that's our rallying cry for 2018 LOL

[moonslav59]

please don't ruin a narrative based on false assumptions...

 

lol

[moonslav59]

I'd be very happy, if we sign JD Martinez, Alex Cobb and Lucas Duda. I'm not sure we can do so and stay under the second luxury tax penalty line. We might get just below the line, and then need to make a mid season deal or two. Maybe the second limit is not so bad anyways.

 

1) Bogey SS

2) Betts RF

3) Beni LF/CF

4) Martinez DH/LF

5) Duda 1B/DH vs RHPs or HRam 1B/DH vs LHPs

6) Devers 3B

7) Pedey 2B

8) JBJ CF or HRam 1B/DH

9) Vaz C

 

Bench: HRam or Duda, Leon, 2 from: Lin, Travis, Hernandez, Holt or Marrero

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Price

SP3 Pom

SP4 Cobb

SP5 Porcello

SP6 Wright/ERod/Johnson (out of options)

 

RP1 Kimbrel

RP2 Smith

RP3 Kelly

RP4 Barnes

RP5 Maddox

RP6 Workman

RP7 Hembree (out of options)/Scott/Thornburg/R Ross/Taylor

 

We may have to let some arb guys go (or trade them), so we can afford everyone. Maybe Holt, Ross and/or Hembree..

 

 

[Larry Cook]

A lot of people think Cobb has declining peripherals and would be a bad investment. However he did spank our zombies around at will this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd put Cobb on my "do not sign" list. His peripherals are really concerning and in Fenway, they wouldn't only worsen

[jacksonianmarch]

slav, there is no way you guys sign Cobb. JD will cost over $20 mil per season, I would probably peg him closer to $25-$27 mil per. If you have $40 mil to spend before you hit the ceiling, then you have to leave a little buffer ($5-$10 mil) for callups and mid season deals

[Larry Cook]

A guy that intrigues me is Garza. He is not what he once was, but as a stopgap til Rodriguez comes back, he might work. Plus he brings some leadership,

[jacksonianmarch]

Larry, I see the sox signing a bunch of retreads to minor league deals. Anibal Sanchez also comes to mind.

[moonslav59]

slav, there is no way you guys sign Cobb. JD will cost over $20 mil per season, I would probably peg him closer to $25-$27 mil per. If you have $40 mil to spend before you hit the ceiling, then you have to leave a little buffer ($5-$10 mil) for callups and mid season deals

 

Yes, more likely we sign JD, Duda and some retread starters.

 

I doubt we address 2B depth, until we see how Pedey and Hernandez look. We ended up getting Nunez pretty cheap mid season, so I think we wait it out there.

[harmony]

I understand the Red Sox desire to upgrade an offense that fell from first place in the American League in hitting fWAR at 35.0 in 2016 to seventh at 17.8 fWAR this year.

 

Still the Red Sox pitching improved from fifth place in fWAR at 18.1 in 2016 to third place in fWAR at 23.9 this year.

 

Will the Red Sox pitching staff be able to repeat (or improve on) its 2017 performance? Can Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel maintain their torrid pace? Will David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright, Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg return effectively from injuries? Can Rick Porcello reclaim his Cy Young glory of 2016? Does Drew Pomeranz have another 3.0 fWAR season in him?

[moonslav59]

I understand the Red Sox desire to upgrade an offense that fell from first place in the American League in hitting fWAR at 35.0 in 2016 to seventh at 17.8 fWAR this year.

 

Still the Red Sox pitching improved from fifth place in fWAR at 18.1 in 2016 to third place in fWAR at 23.9 this year.

 

Will the Red Sox pitching staff be able to repeat (or improve on) its 2017 performance? Can Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel maintain their torrid pace? Will David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright, Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg return effectively from injuries? Can Rick Porcello reclaim his Cy Young glory of 2016? Does Drew Pomeranz have another 3.0 fWAR season in him?

 

We should also have a full season from Maddox and Workman, plus maybe something from Robbie Ross.

[Kimmi]

I understand the Red Sox desire to upgrade an offense that fell from first place in the American League in hitting fWAR at 35.0 in 2016 to seventh at 17.8 fWAR this year.

 

Still the Red Sox pitching improved from fifth place in fWAR at 18.1 in 2016 to third place in fWAR at 23.9 this year.

 

Will the Red Sox pitching staff be able to repeat (or improve on) its 2017 performance? Can Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel maintain their torrid pace? Will David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright, Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg return effectively from injuries? Can Rick Porcello reclaim his Cy Young glory of 2016? Does Drew Pomeranz have another 3.0 fWAR season in him?

 

My opinion has been, and still is, that I'd rather stay pretty much status quo offensively and instead focus on obtaining a #2/3 starter. Unless we know with a good degree of certainty that Price is healthy, we need another solid starter. There are too many question marks with the staff.

 

That being said, Dombrowski will bring in a big bat. I just hope he pays attention to our pitching as well.

[bowman]

Really, you don't think we need a middle of the order power hitter. I agree you can never have enough pitching, but this team needs someone to thump, and make the line up better. Not just to homers, but to also make everyone around him better. Guys will see better pitches to hit and so on.

[Kimmi]

Really, you don't think we need a middle of the order power hitter. I agree you can never have enough pitching, but this team needs someone to thump, and make the line up better. Not just to homers, but to also make everyone around him better. Guys will see better pitches to hit and so on.

 

I really feel like the improvement can come from the guys we already have.

 

I have no problem with Dombrowski acquiring a power hitter for 1B/DH, but I don't think he needs to go crazy trying to get someone like Stanton.

 

As many have said, the team did win 93 games with most of our guys not performing up to expectations. It's not like we absolutely stunk up the joint.

[moonslav59]

If we have close to $40M to spend, like I think we do, I think we should be able to get a good power hitter and solid pitcher for that kind of money.

 

The problem is that there aren't many very good power hitters on the market that match our highest positions of need:

 

1B

DH, if HRam can play 1B enough

possibly 3B, if we move Devers to 1B

 

Trading means we give up a player and create a new hole or further deplete an already weakened farm.

 

[notin]

My opinion has been, and still is, that I'd rather stay pretty much status quo offensively and instead focus on obtaining a #2/3 starter. Unless we know with a good degree of certainty that Price is healthy, we need another solid starter. There are too many question marks with the staff.

 

That being said, Dombrowski will bring in a big bat. I just hope he pays attention to our pitching as well.

 

A 2/3 starter will command close to big bat money and be a long term risky contract. ThIs team won 93 games without more starts from Fister than Price last year.

 

A stopgap starter who usually signs cheap contracts and then put-performs them is Francisco Liriano. Can he do it again?

[Larry Cook]

We could bring back lackey in th cheap for a year.

 

Or we could sign gee on the cheap and move him to the bullpen when Rodriguez returns.

[a700hitter]

We could bring back lackey in th cheap for a year.

 

Or we could sign gee on the cheap and move him to the bullpen when Rodriguez returns.

Gee is batting practice.

[jacksonianmarch]

I really feel like the improvement can come from the guys we already have.

 

I have no problem with Dombrowski acquiring a power hitter for 1B/DH, but I don't think he needs to go crazy trying to get someone like Stanton.

 

As many have said, the team did win 93 games with most of our guys not performing up to expectations. It's not like we absolutely stunk up the joint.

 

If you're not improving, you're falling behind. The Yankees are going to be much better in 2018 than in 2017, especially since the team as is is better than the first 4 months of 2017.

[jacksonianmarch]

I understand the Red Sox desire to upgrade an offense that fell from first place in the American League in hitting fWAR at 35.0 in 2016 to seventh at 17.8 fWAR this year.

 

Still the Red Sox pitching improved from fifth place in fWAR at 18.1 in 2016 to third place in fWAR at 23.9 this year.

 

Will the Red Sox pitching staff be able to repeat (or improve on) its 2017 performance? Can Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel maintain their torrid pace? Will David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright, Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg return effectively from injuries? Can Rick Porcello reclaim his Cy Young glory of 2016? Does Drew Pomeranz have another 3.0 fWAR season in him?

 

The sox pitching staff is the stealth question of 2018. Everyone points to the offense, and rightly so. But the injuries and the ineffectiveness of the rotation going into 2018 bear watching. ERod shouldn't be in any of your mock rotations for 2018. If all goes well, he has a 6 month recovery time, which puts him on a mound for May. But this is the largest tendon in the body, and I anticipate a second half return for him at the earliest after he gets his arm ready. Price's elbow hasn't been addressed. He said publicly that he has a "tear" in there. Who knows what's torn and how badly it is torn, but until it is addressed or he puts up a full season of health, that spectre will be there. Pomeranz avoided the injury plague in 2017. Can he do it in 2018? Porcello has been bad, great, then meh for 3 seasons. He is more meh on his career. I wouldn't be worried about Sale

[a700hitter]

If you're not improving, you're falling behind. The Yankees are going to be much better in 2018 than in 2017, especially since the team as is is better than the first 4 months of 2017.

Any team that stands pat will be left behind. For every guy that steps forward another will take a step back.

[harmony]

If you're not improving, you're falling behind. The Yankees are going to be much better in 2018 than in 2017, especially since the team as is is better than the first 4 months of 2017.

Outfielder Aaron Judge of the Yankees more than doubled the fWAR of any other rookie this year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=2&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

... while the Yankees' Jordan Montgomery and Chad Green topped all rookie pitchers in fWAR:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=2&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

What could possibly go wrong?

[moonslav59]

The sox pitching staff is the stealth question of 2018. Everyone points to the offense, and rightly so. But the injuries and the ineffectiveness of the rotation going into 2018 bear watching. ERod shouldn't be in any of your mock rotations for 2018. If all goes well, he has a 6 month recovery time, which puts him on a mound for May. But this is the largest tendon in the body, and I anticipate a second half return for him at the earliest after he gets his arm ready. Price's elbow hasn't been addressed. He said publicly that he has a "tear" in there. Who knows what's torn and how badly it is torn, but until it is addressed or he puts up a full season of health, that spectre will be there. Pomeranz avoided the injury plague in 2017. Can he do it in 2018? Porcello has been bad, great, then meh for 3 seasons. He is more meh on his career. I wouldn't be worried about Sale

 

There's certainly reason to be concerned about the staff, but with all the "what can go wrongs" there are as many "what can go rights."

 

Porcello doesn't have to be like 2016 to be a big improvement over 2017.

 

Pomeranz could easily be for real and repeat or improve on 2017.

 

Price gave us just about nothing last year as a starter. It's not hard to imagine him doing better or much better.

 

Wright was a decent pitcher before his great start to 2016. There's a chance he can do better than the 30 starts by Fister-Johnson-Velazquez-Kendrick + the 2017 Wright.

 

We might get a surprise from Johnson or Velazquez.

 

I realize this is being overly optimistic, but certainly a few of these things can come true, while the others just stay even.

 

We were 13-11 in ERod's starts, and his 4.19 ERA was higher than the team starter 4.06 ERA.

 

Would I rather have ERod than Wright, Velazquez and Johnson? Hell yes, but we might be surprised next year.

 

We may also pick up a better starter than Fister.

 

 

I'm also thinking our pen will be better and deeper.

 

We have Smith returning, Maddox and Workman for the full year and maybe something from Ross or Thorburg.

 

[moonslav59]

Outfielder Aaron Judge of the Yankees more than doubled the fWAR of any other rookie this year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=2&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

... while the Yankees' Jordan Montgomery and Chad Green topped all rookie pitchers in fWAR:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=2&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

What could possibly go wrong?

 

They could experience what we experienced this year: just about very returning player declining, even those at ages of normally seen improvement.

[moonslav59]

Any team that stands pat will be left behind. For every guy that steps forward another will take a step back.

 

Agreed.

 

Improving on Moreland could be a big plus.

 

I think we add one great bat or two really good ones, somehow- someway.

 

More from Devers, Smith, Maddox, Workman and maybe something from Ross and/or Thorburg could be a big plus.

 

No Pablo, Rutledge and a few others is addition by subtraction.