2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Kimmi]

I keep a general summary of potential Sox actions and believe DD has a steep hill to climb, given the salary limitations. While he probably can't take drastic actions some of those he could take and that have been discussed appear below.

 

 

Summary of Sox Improvement Needs

 

The Yankees, Guardians and Astros will all seek to improve in the offseason. Sox have to improve more to be competitive with them.

Nunez, Devers and Reed brought in and gave us a lift, without which we wouldn’t have made the playoffs.

Impediments include Panda contract, injuries to E-Rod, Pedey, Nunez and Hanley and FA of Nunez, Reed, Moreland

Moves in the making include managerial replacement and coaching replacements on which knowledgeable people have argued for and against.

Areas to address:

1. Lack of power bats in the lineup

Discussion includes possible 1st base addition or moving Devers to first to help with defense while taking on a 3rd base power bat. Also, possibly moving JBJ in favor of a power bat addition to the outfield.

2. Lack of general offensive efficiency

Possible improvement in coaching of existing players (Bogey) and plate approach strategy. Trading of erratic hitters for more consistent hitters (JBJ) although weighing it against defensive weakening. Dealing with second base issues. Hanley’s recovery?

3. Infield defense

Devers improvement or move. Living with Bogey. Need for 2nd base support or replacement. Playing Hanley at 1st or DH. Addition of 3rd or 1st baseman.

4. Starting pitching underperformance

Bad Porcello year. Still has arm and can eat innings. Can he be coached up? Loss of E-rod may require new starter. Will Price make it back as full time starter?

5. Rethinking utility players

Saying goodbye to Young, Davis and Holt? Taking utility guys from our existing roster?

6. Depleted minor league franchises

Can we get help from Chavis, Travis, Groome, Brannen, Hernandez, Lin, Marrero, others or should we include them in trade packages. Not much left to trade.

7. Continuous ruinous contracts that limit our financial flexibility

Panda contract still limits flexibility. Hanley’s if he doesn’t perform, Pedey if he is under the knife and can’t contribute. Porcello and Price if they can’t perform. Leaves us able to add one power bat and possibly help at 2nd and possibly relief help. After salary arbitration how much is left?

 

Good summary of where we might improve oldtimer. I know I'm in the minority, but I really don't think our team needs as much help this offseason as most people do. Add someone solid at 1B/DH, add a solid starter (depending on Price's health), and tweak the bench and bullpen. I really think we would be competitive next season if we returned the same team.

[Kimmi]

All I want for Christmas is a 30 to 40 homer power bat!

 

http://i.imgur.com/Ep8wV.jpg

[FredLynn]

You're right, it is a beautiful day.

 

And we're still out-titling the Yanks 3-1 in the John Henry era!

 

Yup. But THIS YEAR, despite the fact that we finished in first place in the ALE again, the Yankees had a more well rounded team than we did because not only could they pitch, but they could actually hit the baseball. The Sox have a ways to go to catch up to them in the offense department. While the Red Sox went out this year with a wimper, the Yankees, to their credit, fought to the end and nearly ended up in the World Series. So I would offer a begrudging congratulations to the Yankee fans here, along with hopes that DD can find more players this offseason who can actually hit the baseball.

[notin]

It's the ultimate in "grass is greener" when a Sox fans compares the two teams.

 

"The Yankees have Judge and Sanchez and Grigorius and all this young talent." Then when looking at the Sox, ignore the Killer B's and focus on "We have Hanley and can't keep Moreland."

 

"The Yankees have Severino and Grey and all we have is Steven Wright and a gimpy ERod." See how I did that? This was the lamest trick in the softlaw bag - comparing their best to our worst.

 

The fact is - we won more games and aren't losing any key players (they'll likely lose Tanaka). Many of their players had career years or resurgent years and many of ours had down years, two trends that could easily reverse.

 

We need some hitting help. But I would not rebuild everything. Despite the post-season, they're still the team with ground to make up...

[moonslav59]

I think they should add a bat too. I just don't think they need to go crazy adding that bat, ie Stanton. That said, I would be okay if the Sox went with the same position players next year.

 

As far as the pitching goes, Price is the big question mark. If he is indeed healthy and can give us close to 30 starts, then I agree that he is the upgrade. The uncertainty with him is my main reason why I think pitching needs to be addressed.

 

We have to at least upgrade 1B, and we should not bring Moreland back.

 

He didn't do badly, but 1B (or DH if HRam can play 1B) can be the one area we can gain in power and overall offense.

[moonslav59]

ISO numbers since 2014:

 

(Selected players- not all listed)

 

.242 Player A

.240 Rizzo

.236 Goldschmidt

.227 Votto

.224 Abreu

.204 Miggy

.197 Santana

.196 Morrison

.191 Reynolds

.189 HRam

.187 Moreland

.178 AGon

.160 Hosmer

 

Last 2 years:

.272 Freeman

.256 Encarnacion

.253 Player A

.243 Rizzo

.241 Votto

.231 Morrison

.218 Santana

.218 Valbuena

.211 Abreu

.204 Miggy & HRam

.197 Reynolds

.193 Moreland

.173 Hosmer (and people wonder why I'm sour on the Hoze)

.173 Alonso

 

To be fair, here are the wRC+ numbers over the last 2 years:

129 Abreu

124 Santana

119 Hoze

118 Morrison

112 HRam

109 Alonso

108 Player A

107 Valbuena

103 Reynolds

.153 Alonso

 

Last 4 years:

161 Votto

139 Abreu

124 Player A

120 Santana

116 Hosmer

113 HRam

107 Alonso

98 Reynolds

98 Moreland

 

Who is Player A?

 

(Hint: he will likely sign for 1 year.)

 

 

 

Player A is Lucas Duda.

[moonslav59]

Alex Cora will be our magic potion in 2018.

 

The Yankees built their team the right way. Dombrowski did not. That said, it would not be in Dombrowski's best interest to make rash moves. Our team is pretty good and pretty set for the next couple of years. We can compete with the Yankees with a few moves, none of which needs to involve Stanton.

 

If we want to be "like the Yankess", we should trade our stars for prospects and build the team from youth, then add 5-6 guys at the deadline.

 

The Yanks did not get this good by trading for any Stantons.

 

(Note: I'm not trying to say we should be "like" the Yanks, but I do share Kimmi's deep concern over the depletion of our farm.)

[moonslav59]

It's the ultimate in "grass is greener" when a Sox fans compares the two teams.

 

"The Yankees have Judge and Sanchez and Grigorius and all this young talent." Then when looking at the Sox, ignore the Killer B's and focus on "We have Hanley and can't keep Moreland."

 

"The Yankees have Severino and Grey and all we have is Steven Wright and a gimpy ERod." See how I did that? This was the lamest trick in the softlaw bag - comparing their best to our worst.

 

The fact is - we won more games and aren't losing any key players (they'll likely lose Tanaka). Many of their players had career years or resurgent years and many of ours had down years, two trends that could easily reverse.

 

We need some hitting help. But I would not rebuild everything. Despite the post-season, they're still the team with ground to make up...

 

I agree. I think we just need to make 2 major additions or 3 close to major additions. We might have close to $40M to spend, if Henry give the okay to approach the second penalty phase of the luxury tax budget. That might be just enough.

 

Add possible full years by Price, Devers, Smith, Wright, Maddox, and more from Ross and Thornburg to the probability that some of our younger players will actually improve as the approach or reach prime, and we could easily still be "the team to beat" in the AL East.

 

 

[OH FOY]

Tanaka is going to be interesting for sure, does he walk away from 67 million guaranteed.

[Spudboy]

If if if.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

The Rays should be open to trading right-hander Jake Odorizzi, closer Alex Colome, outfielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson and second baseman Brad Miller during the offseason, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines. All four players will go through arbitration in the winter, with Odorizzi projected to end up with the highest salary ($6.5MM). He’s also the player the Rays are most likely to trade, according to Topkin. Odorizzi, 27, is coming off a down season, but his impressive track record and two remaining years of affordable team control could lead to plenty of interest from starter-needy clubs.

[Examiner]

Last time I checked I was pretty sure we had a place for discussion of that team already.

 

Check again, now we have two.

[Examiner]

It's the ultimate in "grass is greener" when a Sox fans compares the two teams.

 

"The Yankees have Judge and Sanchez and Grigorius and all this young talent." Then when looking at the Sox, ignore the Killer B's and focus on "We have Hanley and can't keep Moreland."

 

"The Yankees have Severino and Grey and all we have is Steven Wright and a gimpy ERod." See how I did that? This was the lamest trick in the softlaw bag - comparing their best to our worst.

 

The fact is - we won more games and aren't losing any key players (they'll likely lose Tanaka). Many of their players had career years or resurgent years and many of ours had down years, two trends that could easily reverse.

 

We need some hitting help. But I would not rebuild everything. Despite the post-season, they're still the team with ground to make up...

 

Yeah, that was part of what I meant when I said they played a little over their heads. Yankee pitching was solid, but not THAT good. But even so, this Sox team just does not hit well enough, and is missing some of the intangibles the 2013 team had. Address those two issues, and we are better than NYY.

[notin]

Tanaka is going to be interesting for sure, does he walk away from 67 million guaranteed.

 

Yes. As the youngest big name starter on the market, he could easily double that.

 

The only reason to stay is if he feels hos elbow won't pass a physical. ..

[moonslav59]

Yankee Free Agents:

 

Maybe Tanaka

Sabathia

Pineda

Frazier

Garcia

Holliday

 

Free Agents after next year:

Robertson

Warren

Headley

 

Red Sox Free Agents:

Moreland

Nunez

Reed

Fister

Young

Abad

Boyer

Davis

 

Free agents after next year:

Kimbrel

Pomeranz

maybe HRam

Kelly

Ross

 

 

 

 

[sk7326]

I understand why people are looking for ways to upgrade our offense, but I really prefer not to do that at the expense of our defense. Ozuna is not a good defensive center fielder. I would just as soon stay with JBJ.

 

Really the question when trading for Ozuna is whether Benintendi can be a good defensive CENTER or RIGHT FIELDER. Betts will be near league best wherever he plays ... Benintendi at least profiles as plus at Center Field. (his performance in left was not great - although there is a long history of Red Sox left fielders scoring poorly UZR-wise ... I do think Fenway's left field creates a problem for the measure) The total impact on the outfield might actually end up being small.

 

The idea of dealing JBJ is simply because the Red Sox could actually improve CF internally.

Edited October 22, 2017 by sk7326

[sk7326]

Alex Cora will be our magic potion in 2018.

 

The Yankees built their team the right way. Dombrowski did not. That said, it would not be in Dombrowski's best interest to make rash moves. Our team is pretty good and pretty set for the next couple of years. We can compete with the Yankees with a few moves, none of which needs to involve Stanton.

 

Actually the Yankees did the same thing the Sox did to a degree. The difference is that the Yankees were in a position to sell off veterans - which the Red Sox under Dombrowski largely have not been able to. They've been too busy contending to be able to make Chapman and Miller deals (homeruns for Cashman on both). Cherington and the prior management were the ones who insisted on taking back major league players for Lester and Lackey - and thus not getting nearly enough back for deadline sales.

 

I am all about not selling the farm - but you have to be fair here. Dombrowski identified the prospects he saw star potential with ... Benintendi and Devers ... and dealt the rest with the understanding that a team like Boston can buy worker bees. The only thing I am critical of ultimately is selling off blue chip minor league pitching - but EVEN THEN, pitcher health is so volatile that from a sheer risk management perspective I understand being more willing to deal arms than bats.

[moonslav59]

Actually the Yankees did the same thing the Sox did to a degree. The difference is that the Yankees were in a position to sell off veterans - which the Red Sox under Dombrowski largely have not been able to. They've been too busy contending to be able to make Chapman and Miller deals (homeruns for Cashman on both). Cherington and the prior management were the ones who insisted on taking back major league players for Lester and Lackey - and thus not getting nearly enough back for deadline sales.

 

I am all about not selling the farm - but you have to be fair here. Dombrowski identified the prospects he saw star potential with ... Benintendi and Devers ... and dealt the rest with the understanding that a team like Boston can buy worker bees. The only thing I am critical of ultimately is selling off blue chip minor league pitching - but EVEN THEN, pitcher health is so volatile that from a sheer risk management perspective I understand being more willing to deal arms than bats.

 

We had a sell-off a couple times:

 

1) The AGon, CC, Beckett - Dodger deal

2) The free agents-to-be sell off of Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, A Miller and others.

 

The first one, I think Sox fans were 50-50 over.

 

The second one, fans are still going mental over.

 

None were under DD: both were under Ben.

 

The Yanks are being praised for their moves.

 

Ben is being roasted for his. (Note: Ben traded his vets for more established players, while Cashman traded for younger and more speculative valued talent, something many on this board frown upon.)

[FredLynn]

It's the ultimate in "grass is greener" when a Sox fans compares the two teams.

 

"The Yankees have Judge and Sanchez and Grigorius and all this young talent." Then when looking at the Sox, ignore the Killer B's and focus on "We have Hanley and can't keep Moreland."

 

"The Yankees have Severino and Grey and all we have is Steven Wright and a gimpy ERod." See how I did that? This was the lamest trick in the softlaw bag - comparing their best to our worst.

 

The fact is - we won more games and aren't losing any key players (they'll likely lose Tanaka). Many of their players had career years or resurgent years and many of ours had down years, two trends that could easily reverse.

 

We need some hitting help. But I would not rebuild everything. Despite the post-season, they're still the team with ground to make up...

 

The Yankees finished with an ERA that was just .02 RPG worse than us, and they averaged nearly half a run per game more than us and 50 OPS points better than us. The Sox are comparable in pitching, but we lag in offense, primarily because our SLG was 14th in the AL. In order for us to compete with them next year we are going to have to add power to the lineup-or depend on the existing players to improve. We aren't that far off. But if improvements offensively are not made somehow its going to be a long season.

[moonslav59]

Really the question when trading for Ozuna is whether Benintendi can be a good defensive CENTER or RIGHT FIELDER. Betts will be near league best wherever he plays ... Benintendi at least profiles as plus at Center Field. (his performance in left was not great - although there is a long history of Red Sox left fielders scoring poorly UZR-wise ... I do think Fenway's left field creates a problem for the measure) The total impact on the outfield might actually end up being small.

 

The idea of dealing JBJ is simply because the Red Sox could actually improve CF internally.

 

I would not assume Beni will be a plus defender in CF or RF. I'm not going out on a limb to say, it would be a certain downgrade on defense to have Beni replace JBJ.

 

The upgrade in offense would be Ozuna vs JBJ. It looks like a clear plus for Ozuna, but the 2 years vs 3 years balances it up, in my opinion.

 

I doubt the Marlins would trade Ozuna for JBJ and a mid level prospect. They want to avoid pricey arb players. Maybe a three-team deal could be worked out, but I'm not sure i want to give up 3 years for 2 seemingly better ones. It would play more into the 2 year window theory. I think our window is more like 3 years.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

The Rays should be open to trading right-hander Jake Odorizzi, closer Alex Colome, outfielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson and second baseman Brad Miller during the offseason, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines. All four players will go through arbitration in the winter, with Odorizzi projected to end up with the highest salary ($6.5MM). He’s also the player the Rays are most likely to trade, according to Topkin. Odorizzi, 27, is coming off a down season, but his impressive track record and two remaining years of affordable team control could lead to plenty of interest from starter-needy clubs.

 

I don't see us matching up with the Rays, but we sure could use all of the three bolded players.

[fxkatt]

The Yanks exacted a great deal more from two players than any of ours did from multiple players. And then they go ahead and resign Chapman after what was no more than a short rental. It was lucky but they also knew what prospects to pick out and demand. They kind of did to Chicago and Cleveland what the Celtics did to Brooklyn, but not quite to that degree.

 

We'll see what the Yanks do with their starting rotation (only iffy part of team) during the off-season. I don't think Stanton is so much the issue as a shut down starting pitcher. Who's available?? (haven't done my homework yet)

[moonslav59]

The Yankees finished with an ERA that was just .02 RPG worse than us, and they averaged nearly half a run per game more than us and 50 OPS points better than us. The Sox are comparable in pitching, but we lag in offense, primarily because our SLG was 14th in the AL. In order for us to compete with them next year we are going to have to add power to the lineup-or depend on the existing players to improve. We aren't that far off. But if improvements offensively are not made somehow its going to be a long season.

 

I don't think it's a stretch to expect several players to do more like 2016 than 2017, specially the younger players- which we have more of. You can call it "improvement", but maybe it's more like "return to their norm".

 

There's also another big factor: returning players who did not play a full season last year. Maybe not all will be healthy and play a full season in 2018, and some are doubtful, but there is a long enough list to believe there will be a greater impact from these players in 2018 (of course others or some of these could be injured next year):

 

Price: 11 starts to 20 to 33.

Wright: 5 injury influenced starts to 20 to 33

(In fairness, ERod from 24 starts to 5 to 20)

(Also, Fister, Johnson, Velazquez & Kendrick from 25 starts to 0 to ???)

 

Carson Smith: 7 IP to maybe 57 IP

Brandon Workman: 40 IP to maybe 80 to 100 IP (as long relief guy)

Austin Maddox: 17 IP to maybe 47 or 57

Robby Scott: 36 IP to maybe 46 or 56

Robbie Ross: 9 IP to ???

Thornburg: 0 IP to ???

 

Devers: 58 games to 158 games (No Pablo or Rutledge)

Vaz: 99 games to 120 (Leon from 85 to 64)

 

These changes alone could easily outweigh any 2 free agent signings.

 

The 4 killer Bs hitting with a 2016 OPS instead of 2017 would be like adding a major FA.

[notin]

The Yankees finished with an ERA that was just .02 RPG worse than us, and they averaged nearly half a run per game more than us and 50 OPS points better than us. The Sox are comparable in pitching, but we lag in offense, primarily because our SLG was 14th in the AL. In order for us to compete with them next year we are going to have to add power to the lineup-or depend on the existing players to improve. We aren't that far off. But if improvements offensively are not made somehow its going to be a long season.

 

We were comparable in pitching without Price. If he comes back, he can certainly widen that gap.

 

Don't forget a big part of our pre-season expectations was having Price and Sale...

[moonslav59]

We were comparable in pitching without Price. If he comes back, he can certainly widen that gap.

 

Don't forget a big part of our pre-season expectations was having Price and Sale...

 

...and a healthy Wright to a lesser degree.

 

[sk7326]

We had a sell-off a couple times:

 

1) The AGon, CC, Beckett - Dodger deal

2) The free agents-to-be sell off of Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, A Miller and others.

 

The first one, I think Sox fans were 50-50 over.

 

The second one, fans are still going mental over.

 

None were under DD: both were under Ben.

 

The Yanks are being praised for their moves.

 

Ben is being roasted for his. (Note: Ben traded his vets for more established players, while Cashman traded for younger and more speculative valued talent, something many on this board frown upon.)

 

Because Cashman got better deals ... he got homeruns for Chapman and Miller. (it still made sense for the Cubs to make the deal, flags flying forever and such)

 

The Beckett/Crawford deal was actually fairly good for a salary dump ... neither De La Rosa nor Webster worked out ... but given the value of the assets at the time, that was a better return for a fire sale than you'd expect. The one undisputed homerun Cherington had in the selloffs was getting Eduardo Rodriguez for 2 months of Andrew Miller.

[sk7326]

I would not assume Beni will be a plus defender in CF or RF. I'm not going out on a limb to say, it would be a certain downgrade on defense to have Beni replace JBJ.

 

The upgrade in offense would be Ozuna vs JBJ. It looks like a clear plus for Ozuna, but the 2 years vs 3 years balances it up, in my opinion.

 

I doubt the Marlins would trade Ozuna for JBJ and a mid level prospect. They want to avoid pricey arb players. Maybe a three-team deal could be worked out, but I'm not sure i want to give up 3 years for 2 seemingly better ones. It would play more into the 2 year window theory. I think our window is more like 3 years.

 

Benintendi has to be better, but athletically he should be able to handle either at least at an above average level. Of course Betts is one of the fielders who could actually improve on Bradley at CF.

[moonslav59]

Because Cashman got better deals ... he got homeruns for Chapman and Miller. (it still made sense for the Cubs to make the deal, flags flying forever and such)

 

The Beckett/Crawford deal was actually fairly good for a salary dump ... neither De La Rosa nor Webster worked out ... but given the value of the assets at the time, that was a better return for a fire sale than you'd expect. The one undisputed homerun Cherington had in the selloffs was getting Eduardo Rodriguez for 2 months of Andrew Miller.

 

I agree.

 

I will say that the Dodger dump was a great deal. It wasn't about Webster and de la Rosa. It was about dumping CC and Beckett. AGon petered out afterwards, so even that dump was worth getting nothing in return but the spending space needed to sign Vic and Naps and a ring in 2013.

 

At the time of the 2nd sell-off, I had hoped we went more towards ML ready prospects (like ERod, Hembree & Escobar) than vets (like Cespedes, Kelly & Craig), and my hope was we'd re-sign Miller. We tried to play it "halfway" and that was my criticism then, too. The win in 2013 made it hard to continue being too critical, but we felt it afterwards.

 

Cashman has made some great deals in the past 3-4 years. No doubt better than Ben and DD.

 

[moonslav59]

Benintendi has to be better, but athletically he should be able to handle either at least at an above average level. Of course Betts is one of the fielders who could actually improve on Bradley at CF.

 

No matter how you shake it our, Beni is a defensive downgrade to JBJ.

 

If Betts plays CF, we lose big time in RF with Beni vs Betts.

 

If Beni plays CF, like I feel he is better than him playing in RF, we step down on D in CF, even if Beni ends up being above average on D in CF.

 

I'm not against trading JBJ, even though he is one of my favorite Sox players.

[sk7326]

I agree.

 

I will say that the Dodger dump was a great deal. It wasn't about Webster and de la Rosa. It was about dumping CC and Beckett. AGon petered out afterwards, so even that dump was worth getting nothing in return but the spending space needed to sign Vic and Naps and a ring in 2013.

 

At the time of the 2nd sell-off, I had hoped we went more towards ML ready prospects (like ERod, Hembree & Escobar) than vets (like Cespedes, Kelly & Craig), and my hope was we'd re-sign Miller. We tried to play it "halfway" and that was my criticism then, too. The win in 2013 made it hard to continue being too critical, but we felt it afterwards.

 

Cashman has made some great deals in the past 3-4 years. No doubt better than Ben and DD.

 

 

And to be fair, Napoli was a sensible pickup. Victorino was kind of a lousy idea ... which worked out a billion times better than anybody had the right to expect. Yeah he only gave 1 good year of a 3 year contract, but what a year it was!