Sale

[Slasher9]

I can't believe how comforting you find those little probability calculations. 2011 wasn't that long ago.

 

i see your going with this defense: There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.'"

[Bellhorn04]

i see your going with this defense: There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.'"

 

I honestly have no idea what you're trying to say.

[Bellhorn04]

How about if an industrial company knocked on your door and said 'Hey, mind if we store these toxic chemicals in your basement for a few days? There's only a 10% chance they'll blow up your house.'

[S5Dewey]

I honestly have no idea what you're trying to say.

 

I do.

[Slasher9]

How about if an industrial company knocked on your door and said 'Hey, mind if we store these toxic chemicals in your basement for a few days? There's only a 10% chance they'll blow up your house.'

 

dang. my house getting blowed up equates to the play in game. -sadface-

[SoxnCycles]

How about if an industrial company knocked on your door and said 'Hey, mind if we store these toxic chemicals in your basement for a few days? There's only a 10% chance they'll blow up your house.'

 

They're going to pay me and provide insurance, right?

It would have to be enough to vacation somewhere for a week.

[mvp 78]

How about if an industrial company knocked on your door and said 'Hey, mind if we store these toxic chemicals in your basement for a few days? There's only a 10% chance they'll blow up your house.'

 

How much $$$?

[cp176]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=salech01&year=Career&t=p

scroll down to "Days of Rest" and see if you still feel the same way...

 

No can do. Too many stats a day might befuddle me. Besides I still haven't gotten past you opening up the series for us tomorrow in Cincy. You give us those 5 scoreless innings thats all I want. lol

[Slasher9]

FanGraphs just updated the %. i'm not sure why it's changed but we have moved to 92.0% win the division.

nobody threw a pitch and it still increased as much as it did overnight after Sale threw 111 pitches.....

[moonslav59]

They're going to pay me and provide insurance, right?

It would have to be enough to vacation somewhere for a week.

 

Yes, and if you take the vacation, then there's an 11% chance your house blows up.

[cp176]

FanGraphs just updated the %. i'm not sure why it's changed but we have moved to 92.0% win the division.

nobody threw a pitch and it still increased as much as it did overnight after Sale threw 111 pitches.....

 

With that kind of statistical support, why don't we just forfeit a game or two and give everybody some much needed rest. I do love me some of them stats.

[SoxnCycles]

Yes, and if you take the vacation, then there's an 11% chance your house blows up.

 

It's due for a renovation.

[SoxnCycles]

FanGraphs just updated the %. i'm not sure why it's changed but we have moved to 92.0% win the division.

nobody threw a pitch and it still increased as much as it did overnight after Sale threw 111 pitches.....

 

Farrell told them that Sale is making two more starts, not one.

[TylerD]

Farrell told them that Sale is making two more starts, not one.

 

Doesn't surprise me but maybe they will only leave him in for a few innings depending how close the Yankees are to us and what not.

[Dojji]

i see your going with this defense: There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.'"

 

2011 is a very real factor in what's happening here. We got ambushed because the whole team started relaxing at the start of September and we got bit hard in the butt. Those of us with actual working memories are seeing a certain paralell here.

 

You can't take the division for granted in these circumstances. We do not have the luxury of resting our key pieces. Yeah in an ideal world I'd love to do it, but the Yankees are in a great position to pull a 2011, 1978 style ambush, and we need to guard against that. If the Yankees do steal the division, it had damn well better be over the best efforts of the Red Sox to stop them doing it. Nothing less is acceptable.

 

The worst case scenario here is resting Sale only to have to use him in the play in game that we wouldn't have had to play if we hadn't outsmarted outselves. I'd rather avoid that.

[moonslav59]

2011 is a very real factor in what's happening here. We got ambushed because the whole team started relaxing at the start of September and we got bit hard in the butt. Those of us with actual working memories are seeing a certain paralell here.

 

You can't take the division for granted in these circumstances. We do not have the luxury of resting our key pieces. Yeah in an ideal world I'd love to do it, but the Yankees are in a great position to pull a 2011, 1978 style ambush, and we need to guard against that. If the Yankees do steal the division, it had damn well better be over the best efforts of the Red Sox to stop them doing it. Nothing less is acceptable.

 

The worst case scenario here is resting Sale only to have to use him in the play in game that we wouldn't have had to play if we hadn't outsmarted outselves. I'd rather avoid that.

 

There are countless examples of teams resting starters over the last 10-15 days of the season and going on to win it all.

 

You can concentrate on worst case scenarios. I'm concentrating on improving our odds of winning a ring.

 

Yes, I might sacrifice some tiny odds factor of us somehow blowing a 3 game lead in order to increase the odds of Sale being sharper for the playoffs and thereby (hopefully) improving our odds of bringing home a championship.

 

Either way, it's not a slam dunk right or wrong choice here.

 

[Bellhorn04]

'Somehow' blowing a 3 game lead - good one.

 

If you back through our schedule this year I'm pretty sure you'll find numerous instances of us losing 3 games or gaining 3 games over a stretch of 10 games or less.

[TylerD]

'Somehow' blowing a 3 game lead - good one.

 

If you back through our schedule this year I'm pretty sure you'll find numerous instances of us losing 3 games or gaining 3 games over a stretch of 10 games or less.

 

THIS.

 

Very easy to let a 3 game lead slip through 10 games. Yankees are on fire right now and have won 8 of their last 10..... Only reason they haven't caught us in the past couple weeks is because Boston is also playing very well and keeps winning. Start resting some players and lose a couple games Yankees will be tied with us the next thing you know. A 3 game lead with 10 games left is not a comfortable lead by any means especially when the team chasing you is on fire like the Yankees. I wish we could rest our best players but losing the division is still a huge possibility if we don't keep winning.

[Bellhorn04]

I mean, 6 of our last 10 games are going to be started by Porcello, E-Rod, and Fister. I don't mean to be a doomsayer but those guys haven't exactly been money in the bank every time out. Nor has our offense. We've been winning a lot of tight games lately, coming from behind...and that's great, but it also suggests we might be due to lose a few like that.

[cp176]

I mean, 6 of our last 10 games are going to be started by Porcello, E-Rod, and Fister. I don't mean to be a doomsayer but those guys haven't exactly been money in the bank every time out. Nor has our offense. We've been winning a lot of tight games lately, coming from behind...and that's great, but it also suggests we might be due to lose a few like that.

 

What it suggests to me really is that we have a team that is getting just about as much bang for their buck as they can get. A few twists and turns and we could be behind the Yankess right now and not up by 3. We are good but not good enough to take anything for granted. If resting to some here means getting Sale out of there after 6 or 7, I get that, but having him skip starts right now if he feels strong and ready to go would be something I wouldn't understand. I'm willing to bet that if you took a little poll that everyone of the members of this team would feel the same way. JF has for the most part always erred on the cautious side. I'm pleased that he understands that it is important to win the division.

[Spudboy]

All well stated gentlemen.

[moonslav59]

'Somehow' blowing a 3 game lead - good one.

 

If you back through our schedule this year I'm pretty sure you'll find numerous instances of us losing 3 games or gaining 3 games over a stretch of 10 games or less.

 

I never said there was zero chance of blowing the lead. I think the odds are about 8-10% now of not winning the division. How much do you think Sale pitching 2 more games out our 10 left instead of 1 affects those odds? (Just curious)

 

I said improve the long run odds while sacrificing a little off the div winner odds.

[moonslav59]

Very easy to let a 3 game lead slip through 10 games.

 

Very easy to win by 5 or 6, too.

 

Yes, we can and could still lose the lead.

 

Resting sale is a risk. I never said otherwise.

 

Burning Sale out is a risk, too.

 

It's weighing one risk/reward vs the other.

 

IMO, it's not a slam dunk choice.

[devildavid]

The "randomness" of baseball would tell us that the Y's should start losing soon. Of course, that same "randomness" would also tell us that the Guardians' streak is just a mirage.

 

That is not what the randomness of baseball tells us. The Guardians, Yankees, and Red Sox are all good teams and are playing well as good teams often do. In September, the bad teams start playing differently and trying new players and may not focus on winning. And some teams just don't match up well with these good teams. Randomness has more to do with stuff that happens in individual games and short series. The best teams tend to have more winning streaks. That is not random.

[devildavid]

Very easy to let a 3 game lead slip through 10 games.

 

Very easy to win by 5 or 6, too.

 

Yes, we can and could still lose the lead.

 

Resting sale is a risk. I never said otherwise.

 

Burning Sale out is a risk, too.

 

It's weighing one risk/reward vs the other.

 

IMO, it's not a slam dunk choice.

 

But Sale's 300th strikeout got the team all fired up. Doesn't that count for something?

[Kimmi]

It may be an issue. The bigger issue at the moment is securing the division.

 

That's the bottom line. A 'rested' Sale won't do us any good if we get eliminated in the wild card game.

 

If Sale falters in Game 1 of the ALDS due to lack of rest, at least we have the rest of the series to overcome that.

[Kimmi]

A special night when he was throwing almost effortlessly. No stressful or long innings, most with a big lead. 4 runners all night.

 

Same number of pitches over 5-6 innings with lots of guys on base is a different story. 1-0 game is a different story.

 

Exactly.

[Kimmi]

That is not what the randomness of baseball tells us. The Guardians, Yankees, and Red Sox are all good teams and are playing well as good teams often do. In September, the bad teams start playing differently and trying new players and may not focus on winning. And some teams just don't match up well with these good teams. Randomness has more to do with stuff that happens in individual games and short series. The best teams tend to have more winning streaks. That is not random.

 

Thank you for this post.

[moonslav59]

but sale's 300th strikeout got the team all fired up. Doesn't that count for something?

 

lol!

 

Now, we have "fire and desire!"

[Kimmi]

Very easy to let a 3 game lead slip through 10 games.

 

Very easy to win by 5 or 6, too.

 

Yes, we can and could still lose the lead.

 

Resting sale is a risk. I never said otherwise.

 

Burning Sale out is a risk, too.

 

It's weighing one risk/reward vs the other.

 

IMO, it's not a slam dunk choice.

 

The chances are that we will win the division. However, anything can and does happen in baseball. A 3 game swing in one week is not unheard of, and the fact that we have some fairly easy competition coming up does not matter. The Dodgers are in danger of being swept by the Phillies.

 

The point is, you can't take anything for granted, especially with only 10 games left to go.

 

I agree with you way more often than not, but this is a time where I strongly disagree. IMO, it is pretty close to a slam dunk choice.