A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[moonslav59]

I understand that, but carrying Hanley really hampers improving the team. The Sox organization will not be put out of business financially by cutting Hanley. Take the hit and move on. Hanley adds no value to the team . Pedroia's situation is much more difficult. There is still good value left in him unless his health has crossed the point of no return , which I believe that Hanley's has.

 

It won't hurt to hope HRam heals over the winter (surgery?) and see how he looks next spring.

 

It's not like him holding back Travis is going to make a big difference.

 

If we can sign a DH (JD Martinez?) and maybe a 1Bman like Duda (Awesome vs RHPs), we can go into 2018 with HRam as the platoon 1Bman vs LHPs only with the idea that, if he is healthy and doing well, he can squeeze out Duda or play some DH as JD plays the OF to rest or mini-platoon there.

 

I just don't see HRam as crowding out any great prospect beating down the door. $44M is too much to not at least give him a chance to show anything he might still have in his tank. His 2016 season was not that long ago, and it's not like he's 39 years old.

 

[S5Dewey]

It won't hurt to hope HRam heals over the winter (surgery?) and see how he looks next spring.

 

 

I just don't see HRam as crowding out any great prospect beating down the door. $44M is too much to not at least give him a chance to show anything he might still have in his tank. His 2016 season was not that long ago, and it's not like he's 39 years old.

 

Ugh. I hate this post. Not because it's not true, but because I think I've read it before. Insert Pablo Sandoval and it's the same thing.

:-((

[Spudboy]

Yeah it's not as if there isn't any precedent for allowing a high payed played who is in decline to prove himself in spring training.

 

That seems to work out well so often.

[Spudboy]

Ugh. I hate this post. Not because it's not true, but because I think I've read it before. Insert Pablo Sandoval and it's the same thing.

:-((

 

Lol. I read this post after I posted.

[moonslav59]

Ugh. I hate this post. Not because it's not true, but because I think I've read it before. Insert Pablo Sandoval and it's the same thing.

:-((

 

I'm glad we gave Papi another chance, after many felt he was done many years back.

 

The Pablo 3rd chance experiment failed, so I guess that means every similar experiment has to end the same way.

 

1) HRam is not out of shape.

2) He was playing hurt in 2015 and 2017.

3) He has had much greater seasons than Pablo ever had.

4) HRam has a WAR over 2 in the last 2 years combined.

5) He is not significantly past prime.

6) He has a $22M vesting option we can negate by keeping him.

7) He had the highest HR/PA rate on a team looking to improve on power this winter. Replacing your best power hitter is not sound strategy for improving your power numbers.

8) He is not blocking any top prospect, unless you think Travis is leading us to the promise land.

9) HRam is not Pablo.

10) We don't have to give him a long look next year. We could just limit his PAs and then move on- assuming he sucks as much as you think he does.

[Northern Star]

I'm not certain about the reality of limiting his PAs without getting a grievance filed. Someone said get JD Martinez at DH. I think I'd rather have Hanley as full time DH and address 1B elsewhere.

[OH FOY]

Wow, lot of money at DH. Martinez made 11 million this year, he'll want 20 at least a year.

[Northern Star]

Wow, lot of money at DH. Martinez made 11 million this year, he'll want 20 at least a year.

 

Lot of money there just with Hanley.

[OH FOY]

That's what I mean, if Hanley doesn't play 1st base, or Martinez doesn't play Outfield, signing him would be crazy. Unless you move an Outfielder. People think you can move anybody to 1st base anytime. Its not as easy a position as many think. A Good first baseman can cut down a lot of throwing errors from the infield.

This Left side of infield you need one with Bogaerts and Devers.

[moonslav59]

You guys still wanna DFA HRam?

[moonslav59]

That's what I mean, if Hanley doesn't play 1st base, or Martinez doesn't play Outfield, signing him would be crazy. Unless you move an Outfielder. People think you can move anybody to 1st base anytime. Its not as easy a position as many think. A Good first baseman can cut down a lot of throwing errors from the infield.

This Left side of infield you need one with Bogaerts and Devers.

 

If Hanley gets healthy, and he looks pretty healthy now, he can play 1B vs LHPs only and DH a few times vs RHPs next year.

 

JD Martinez could play LF when we need to rest Beni, JBJ or Betts or are in an NL park.

[S5Dewey]

you guys still wanna dfa hram?

 

sss :-))

[moonslav59]

I'm not certain about the reality of limiting his PAs without getting a grievance filed. Someone said get JD Martinez at DH. I think I'd rather have Hanley as full time DH and address 1B elsewhere.

 

It would have to be via trade.

I don't see Duda, Hosmer, Morrison or Santana as a being the big difference maker we need.

 

[moonslav59]

The answer would be absolutely none! Betts i guess comes the closest but really? I don't think so. No legit big hitting superstars here.

 

"Bonafide Game Superstars" , like Betts, can win games with their gloves too.

[S5Dewey]

"Bonafide Game Superstars" , like Betts, can win games with their gloves too.

 

Do you mean like not having the ball clank off his glove for a home run?

[Northern Star]

You guys still wanna DFA HRam?

 

Let's give credit where it's due, he's shown up to play in this series.

[moonslav59]

do you mean like not having the ball clank off his glove for a home run?

 

lol!

[cp176]

Come on - where is the love for former Red Sox Reddick?

[moonslav59]

Come on - where is the love for former Red Sox Reddick?

 

I'm lovin' the guy right now- as is JBJ!

[Northern Star]

that was in and out of the glove, wasn't it?

[S5Dewey]

that was in and out of the glove, wasn't it?

 

Yes. Clearly was on replay. The only thing I'm unsure about is whether the ball would have come down on the field of play had Reddick not touched it. He may have actually pushed it into the stands.

[Bellhorn04]

It was a good effort by Reddick - tough play, bad luck.

[S5Dewey]

It was a good effort by Reddick - tough play, bad luck.

 

As I said in the GT, Mookie makes that play.

[Northern Star]

It was a good effort by Reddick - tough play, bad luck.

 

hey, at least it didn't bounce off his head. Which I would have paid a fortune to see.

[Kimmi]

I understand that, but carrying Hanley really hampers improving the team. The Sox organization will not be put out of business financially by cutting Hanley. Take the hit and move on. Hanley adds no value to the team . Pedroia's situation is much more difficult. There is still good value left in him unless his health has crossed the point of no return , which I believe that Hanley's has.

 

I still think Hanley played most of the year with injuries to both shoulders. IMO, if he can get healthy, he's a batter that we want on our team.

[moonslav59]

hey, at least it didn't bounce off his head. Which I would have paid a fortune to see.

 

Like Canseco's header?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxNPipot74g

Edited October 9, 2017 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

So from that my guess is the team must have had a high stolen base success rate. Is there anything calculated about potential runs lost by running into outs on the bases?

 

Yes, there is. You want to look at run expectancy matrices. It will tell you what the run expectancy is for each base/out state. You can then compare the difference between run expectancy of having a runner on 1st with no outs, or having the runner thrown out when trying to advance to 2nd (no runners on, 1 out). It's different for every base/out state.

 

This is the same type of thing that is used for stolen bases versus caught stealing and sac bunts.

[moonslav59]

I still think Hanley played most of the year with injuries to both shoulders. IMO, if he can get healthy, he's a batter that we want on our team.

 

Agreed, He was also playing hurt in 2015.

 

The guy was second on the team in HRs and first in HR %, yet some people want to DFA him and pay him $44M to get healthy and possibly rake elsewhere.

Edited October 9, 2017 by moonslav59

[Northern Star]

Looking ahead to next season, two things in my opinion: Betts and Devers stay. I don't want DD doing something stupid just to get a big bat.

[Spudboy]

Come on - where is the love for former Red Sox Reddick?

 

I'd take him on my team any day.

 

As long as he were healthy, that is.

 

It's not like he made an error or bonehead play. He tried to make a difficult catch and came up short.