A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[moonslav59]

Remaining Games Left

 

9 TOR (3H/6A)

6 BAL (3H/3A)

6 TBR (3H/3A)

4 HOU

3 OAK

3@ CIN

 

19 Home

16 Away

(After SEP 3rd, it will be 16 H vs 9A)

 

Basically, we are done facing any legitimate contenders until the 4 game home series to end the season vs HOU. That series might mean nothing to HOU, so they may rest many of their starters.

 

It also means we got to the second best record in the AL (now just 4 games behind the Astros) by already playing the toughest portion of our schedule.

 

[moonslav59]

After 127 games...

 

73-54

 

2016:

 

71-56

 

[moonslav59]

Today an Over the Monster column examined the "Nick Punto trade" five years later:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2017/8/25/16200096/red-sox-dodgers-trade-adrian-gonzalez-carl-crawford-josh-beckett-de-la-rosa-Webster

 

I was initially confused when I read that the Red Sox turned Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa into Carson Smith and Roenis Elias. Then the connection dawned on me: the Sox traded Webster and De La Rosa for Wade Miley whom they later traded with Jonathan Aro for Smith and Elias.

 

Using the same logic, Seattle turned Carson Smith and Jonathan Aro* into Ariel Miranda when the Mariners traded Miley for Miranda near the trade deadline in 2016.

 

Which got me thinking about what has more trade value: three arbitration years of nearly 28-year-old rehabbing reliever Carson Smith or five years of 28-year-old lefthander Ariel Miranda, a low-end starter who has posted an ERA of 4.78 in 25 starts this season. A healthy Smith would seem to have the edge but the years of team control lean in Miranda's favor.

 

Thoughts?

 

* BTW, the nearly 27-year-old Aro has not appeared at the MLB level this year, posting an ERA of 3.44, a WHIP of 1.09 and a K/BB of 3.91 in 21 appearances at Triple A Tacoma:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=aro---000jon

 

All I care about is Smith vs Miley.

 

I'll still take Smith.

[harmony]

All I care about is Smith vs Miley.

 

I'll still take Smith.

We all hope Carson Smith has a productive return but to date the Red Sox have received 0.0 fWAR from that trade while Wade Miley has posted 2.4 fWAR. Smith, who turns 28 in October, has pitched only 81 innings at the MLB level, leaving questions unanswered.

[moonslav59]

Good read on Beeks and Brentz and September call-ups...

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/08/scouting-scratch-potential-sept-call.html

 

Both need to be added to the 40 man roster, but since Beeks is a rule 5 candidate and Brentz can become a FA after this seasin, if he is not added to the 40 man roster, maybe it could happen.

 

Since Brentz made a mechanical adjustment, he "has hit .318/.387/.637 with 26 home runs, 19 doubles and 34 walks compared to 71 strikeouts in 346 plate appearances." That's a 1.024 OPS! Double those numbers to about 700 PAs, and his numbers would be:

 

.318

52 HRs

38 DBLs

 

[moonslav59]

We all hope Carson Smith has a productive return but to date the Red Sox have received 0.0 fWAR from that trade while Wade Miley has posted 2.4 fWAR. Smith, who turns 28 in October, has pitched only 81 innings at the MLB level, leaving questions unanswered.

 

True enough, but there are more questions about Miranda, and the book is pretty much closed on Miley.

[harmony]

True enough, but there are more questions about Miranda, and the book is pretty much closed on Miley.

Ariel Miranda is not a nearly 28-year-old, limited-experience reliever coming off Tommy John surgery.

[Maxbialystock]

Remaining Games Left

 

9 TOR (3H/6A)

6 BAL (3H/3A)

6 TBR (3H/3A)

4 HOU

3 OAK

3@ CIN

 

19 Home

16 Away

(After SEP 3rd, it will be 16 H vs 9A)

 

Basically, we are done facing any legitimate contenders until the 4 game home series to end the season vs HOU. That series might mean nothing to HOU, so they may rest many of their starters.

 

It also means we got to the second best record in the AL (now just 4 games behind the Astros) by already playing the toughest portion of our schedule.

 

 

Great stuff. Thanks.

[Maxbialystock]

After 127 games...

 

73-54

 

2016:

 

71-56

 

 

Not such great stuff. The 2016 Sox had a 9 or 10 game winning streak in September which won the AL East even with the late losses.This year, as last year, we are in a race with the Guardians to get the higher playoff slot. Or are we doomed to play each other regardless of who is 2d and who is 3d?

[Maxbialystock]

Good read on Beeks and Brentz and September call-ups...

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/08/scouting-scratch-potential-sept-call.html

 

Both need to be added to the 40 man roster, but since Beeks is a rule 5 candidate and Brentz can become a FA after this seasin, if he is not added to the 40 man roster, maybe it could happen.

 

Since Brentz made a mechanical adjustment, he "has hit .318/.387/.637 with 26 home runs, 19 doubles and 34 walks compared to 71 strikeouts in 346 plate appearances." That's a 1.024 OPS! Double those numbers to about 700 PAs, and his numbers would be:

 

.318

52 HRs

38 DBLs

 

 

Too late. I already joined the "why Brentz" movement. Good stuff, though.

[moonslav59]

Ariel Miranda is not a nearly 28-year-old, limited-experience reliever coming off Tommy John surgery.

 

No.

 

Miranda is nearly 29.

He's been in professional baseball for 10 years.

He had a 1.36 WHIP in 7 years of foreign ball.

He's been a starter pretty much his whole career and yet never pitched more than 20 starts until this year's 25 starts, 4.90 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

 

Are you taking the position that Miranda has less questions than Carson Smith, who as already proven he can pitch very well at the ML level?

 

I'm not saying Smith is a sure bet to return to form, but he looks healthy now, and to me,

there are less questions about him.

[moonslav59]

Not such great stuff. The 2016 Sox had a 9 or 10 game winning streak in September which won the AL East even with the late losses.This year, as last year, we are in a race with the Guardians to get the higher playoff slot. Or are we doomed to play each other regardless of who is 2d and who is 3d?

 

Last year's team also went on a 10-8 run after game 127 and before the 11 game winning streak and then lost 4 of the last 5 games before getting swept by the Guardians (7 of 8 games total).

 

They went 22-16 after game 127 (including the playoffs), and we highly in consistent in the last 38 games of 2016.

 

Basically, they were 11-15 sandwiched around an 11 game winning streak.

[moonslav59]

Too late. I already joined the "why Brentz" movement. Good stuff, though.

 

I've never been a Brentz fan, but I'm leaning "why not" for September call-ups.

 

He's certainly more likely to ever be a current or future plus than Henry Owens.

[Maxbialystock]

I've never been a Brentz fan, but I'm leaning "why not" for September call-ups.

 

He's certainly more likely to ever be a current or future plus than Henry Owens.

 

Over Owens? All day long.

[Maxbialystock]

Last year's team also went on a 10-8 run after game 127 and before the 11 game winning streak and then lost 4 of the last 5 games before getting swept by the Guardians (7 of 8 games total).

 

They went 22-16 after game 127 (including the playoffs), and we highly in consistent in the last 38 games of 2016.

 

Basically, they were 11-15 sandwiched around an 11 game winning streak.

 

Even without Ortiz, this team is showing me something despite Price and Wright on the DL. The bullpen is a little shaky, but the rotation--except for that guy Sale--is coming around. Nunez and Devers have really helped the lineup even though Devers is in a mini-slump, which I claim is because Farrell moved him away from his comfort zone and into the 5th slot. Defense not so great, but tolerable. If your Davis numbers bear fruit in Boston, maybe we won't miss JBJ too much. Pedroia could come back and JBJ is sure to.

 

But the biggie right now is that all of the rotation--Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz, ERod, and Fister--have shown they can pitch well. In August, no less. Our 2013 postseason depended heavily on great pitching and just enough hitting. Last year the pitching stunk.

[moonslav59]

Over Owens? All day long.

 

All it takes is to open a slot on the 40 man roster (Owens).

[moonslav59]

Interesting...

 

https://bosoxinjection.com/2017/08/25/red-sox-gearing-run-shohei-otani/

[harmony]

Are you taking the position that Miranda has less questions than Carson Smith, who as already proven he can pitch very well at the ML level?

 

I'm not saying Smith is a sure bet to return to form, but he looks healthy now, and to me,

there are less questions about him.

Perhaps we have different criteria on what constitutes a "proven" reliever.

 

Approaching his 28th birthday in October, Carson Smith has barely one year of MLB experiences as the righthander recovers from Tommy John surgery. His work in 81 MLB innings taken as a whole is quite impressive although Smith was not without his struggles when he won, then 11 weeks later lost, the closer's role on a 2015 Seattle team that dropped 86 games. Smith relied heavily on his slider, which may or may not have contributed to his elbow injury.

 

The Mariners certainly traded high on Smith, who may develop into the hoped-for setup stud ... or not.

 

Ariel Miranda may been nothing more than a rich man's Roenis Elias, another Cuban lefthander who is less than one year older than Miranda. Last offseason Miranda was not a projected starter for the Mariners but with 25 starts this year has led a decimated Seattle staff that has used 37 pitchers, including 16 who have made starts. As a low-end starter with fly-ball tendencies, Miranda may be well-suited for Seattle with its superb defense covering an expansive outfield.

 

Let's hope the Red Sox get three productive years from Smith and the Mariners get five more productive years from Miranda ... but I have my doubts on each count.

Edited August 25, 2017 by harmony

[Spudboy]

I doubt that Moreland will be back. But he is delivering good value for $5.5 million this year.

 

I say it will be determined by what other schlock will be available and at what price.

 

I doubt very much that the Sox will splurge here. And dropping another $20 mil or so for 4 years would be really dumb.

 

Moreland won't set the world on fire but he is decent at 1st and he does hit some long balls.

 

Even with a reasonable raise he would be worth it. And he has not exactly played himself into a strong bargaining position this season. I doubt that he will have many suitors.

[moonslav59]

Perhaps we have different criteria on what constitutes a "proven" reliever.

 

Approaching his 28th birthday in October, Carson Smith has barely one year of MLB experiences as the righthander recovers from Tommy John surgery. His work in 81 MLB innings taken as a whole is quite impressive although Smith was not without his struggles when he won, then 11 weeks later lost, the closer's role on a 2015 Seattle team that dropped 86 games. Smith relied heavily on his slider, which may or may not have contributed to his elbow injury.

 

The Mariners certainly traded high on Smith, who may develop into the hoped-for setup stud ... or not.

 

Ariel Miranda may been nothing more than a rich man's Roenis Elias, another Cuban lefthander who is less than one year older than Miranda. Last offseason Miranda was not a projected starter for the Mariners but with 25 starts this year has led a decimated Seattle staff that has used 37 pitchers, including 16 who have made starts. As a low-end starter with fly-ball tendencies, Miranda may be well-suited for Seattle with its superb defense covering an expansive outfield.

 

Let's hope the Red Sox get three productive years from Smith and the Mariners get five more productive years from Miranda ... but I have my doubts on each count.

 

Agreed, "proven" was a poor choice of words.

[moonslav59]

I say it will be determined by what other schlock will be available and at what price.

 

I doubt very much that the Sox will splurge here. And dropping another $20 mil or so for 4 years would be really dumb.

 

Moreland won't set the world on fire but he is decent at 1st and he does hit some long balls.

 

Even with a reasonable raise he would be worth it. And he has not exactly played himself into a strong bargaining position this season. I doubt that he will have many suitors.

 

I think we'll try and get the best 1Bman we can find who is willing to sign for 1 or maybe 2 years.

Edited August 25, 2017 by moonslav59

[Spudboy]

I think we'll ry and get the best 1Bman we can find who is willing to sign for 1 or maybe 2 years.

 

So that list is long and juicy I take it?

 

I say don't f*** with what isn't broken.

 

If a clear upgrade is not available then keep the guy you have.

 

I don't buy that the grass is necessarily greener with another guy.

[moonslav59]

So that list is long and juicy I take it?

 

I say don't f*** with what isn't broken.

 

If a clear upgrade is not available then keep the guy you have.

 

I don't buy that the grass is necessarily greener with another guy.

 

I'm agreeing with you that Moreland returning is possible.

 

There are not many better 1Bmen out there this coming winter, and some might demand 3+ years.

 

I'd prefer someone better than Moreland, but I am not for making another Pablo/HRam type mistake.

[oldtimer]

It appears that we need and should get a new hitting coach next year as part of the change package. Right now we look like a tired team and I hope we don't go into a tailspin.

[a700hitter]

It appears that we need and should get a new hitting coach next year as part of the change package. Right now we look like a tired team and I hope we don't go into a tailspin.

But who will speak Papiamento with Xander?

[moonslav59]

Looks like Bogey may have snapped out of it on his own.

[moonslav59]

Last 28 Days OPS

 

1.082 Vaz

1.019 Moreland

.965 Devers

.962 Beni

.928 Nunez

.892 Young

.749 Bogey

.705 JBJ

.700 Leon

.674 HRam

.610 Betts

.581 Holt

 

OPS Against-- 30+ PAs unless indicated otherwise:

.485 Abad (20 PAs)

.507 Kimbrel

.604 Fister

.665 Pom

.673 ERod

.684 Sale

.704 Barnes

.714 Workman

.728 Porcello

.778 Reed

.823 Hembree

.838 Kelly (29 PAs)

.892 Scott (24 PAs)

1.548 Boyer (17 PAs)

[Larry Cook]

Between now and the end of the season, we need our offense to quit running hot and cold and get some consistent play out of these guys. Seems like too many of our hitters take 10 games off, then get hot for 10 games.

 

In addition, it would be nice if we could field 9 healthy guys every game.

[S5Dewey]

Between now and the end of the season, we need our offense to quit running hot and cold and get some consistent play out of these guys. Seems like too many of our hitters take 10 games off, then get hot for 10 games.

 

In addition, it would be nice if we could field 9 healthy guys every game.

 

And isn't this what happened in 2016? A blazing hot streak followed by a freezing cold one in the short appearance in the playoffs? Much of winning the WS is a matter of timing. Who's hot when. That's why we say that the important thing is to get there. After that anything can happen.

[Larry Cook]

And isn't this what happened in 2016? A blazing hot streak followed by a freezing cold one in the short appearance in the playoffs? Much of winning the WS is a matter of timing. Who's hot when. That's why we say that the important thing is to get there. After that anything can happen.

 

If what you are saying is true, and we are a couple games into the start of a cold spell.

 

And if each cold spell last 10 to 12 games. This might be the year we enter the playoffs on a hot steak.