A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Spudboy]

That play was great. Him yelling in the dugout that "this is war" was really great too.

 

thunder, do you still think he's a clubhouse cancer?!?!?!?!?

 

Hmmm. Last night I made a point of watching the post game interview of Sale.

 

He was honest and sincere. He was funny and self deprecating. He made no excuses for his s*** outing two starts ago. He simply stated that " I sucked and got my ass kicked".

 

Jeez I hope such language does not offend the tender ears of some here on Talksox.

 

Anyway, watching him last night it was hard to imagine he was the guy who pulled a nutty and cut those unis to shreds.

 

I hardly see him as a cancer.

[Bellhorn04]

Sale just seems super-intense to me.

[Kimmi]

Baseball Prospectus columnist Matthew Kory maintains his optimism regarding the Red Sox:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/08/an-optimists-view/

 

Kory lives in my town.

 

I am a Kory fan. Say hi to him for me.

[harmony]

I am a Kory fan. Say hi to him for me.

I'm wondering whether Matt Kory will join Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan and Rob Neyer for the EclipseFest at a short-season Class A game in Keizer, Oregon, on August 21:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-and-effectively-wild-are-going-to-eclipsefest/

 

I'll be there.

 

Sullivan and Neyer live in my town as well; Cameron lives in my state.

[Kimmi]

I'm wondering whether Matt Kory will join Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan and Rob Neyer for the EclipseFest at a short-season Class A game in Keizer, Oregon, on August 21:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-and-effectively-wild-are-going-to-eclipsefest/

 

I'll be there.

 

Sullivan and Neyer live in my town as well; Cameron lives in my state.

 

It sounds like fun. I would love to sit down with those guys and pick their brains. I guess stat geeks like the Pacific northwest!

[moonslav59]

Sale just seems super-intense to me.

 

Agreed, but not in an obnoxious way...like smashing water coolers when things go wrong.

 

To think some questioned his attitude and clubhouse affect!

[Larry Cook]

Agreed, but not in an obnoxious way...like smashing water coolers when things go wrong.

 

To think some questioned his attitude and clubhouse affect!

 

Hopefully he does not cut up his jersey with his nickname on it.

[Slasher9]

Yes, it does.

Boggs wasn't bad last night, but Gomes and Timlin were awful.

 

This 100%

[moonslav59]

Current OPS leaders on the Sox (players 2 team OPS listed)

200+ PAs unless listed:

 

.949 Devers (53 PAs)

.819 Nunez

.801 Betts

.784 Beni

.784 Pedey

.775 Travis (50 PAs)

.767 HRam

.760 JBJ

.760 Young

.748 Moreland

.743 Bogey

.739 Lin (59 PAs)

.701 Vaz

.682 Leon

.628 Hernandez (60 PAs)

.622 Pablito (108 PAs)

.576 Marrero (166 PAs)

.558 Rutledge (118 PAs)

.523 Holt (75 PAs)

 

[moonslav59]

Guardians acquire Jay Bruce for for single A LHP'er Ryder Ryan (4.79 ERA).

[moonslav59]

Heard our old friend Daniel Nava is on the trading block.

 

He's back to raking RHPs:

 

.926 OPS in 142 PAs vs righties.

 

(As always, he sucks vs lefties --.564 in 56 PAs.)

[moonslav59]

On the farm...

 

Justin Haley (back from rule 5) with his second straight good strat:

6.2 IP 3 ER 5H 0 BB and 10 Ks

 

Robby Scott 1.1 IP 1 H 1 BB 0 ER

 

Bryce Brentz: 2 RBIs

 

Sam Travis: 2 for 4

 

AA

 

Chavis 2 for 4 with 12th AA HR

 

Barfield 3 for 5 with a 2B

 

Ockimey 2 for 4

 

 

[moonslav59]

Brentz with his 26th tonight (THUR)! He's 2 for 2 so far (.282 BA).

 

I've never been high on this guy, but how great can a guy do and not be called up?

[moonslav59]

Half way through the AA game, and Chavis & Barfield only have a double each.

 

These guys suck!

 

Demote them to single A!

[BstHcpr]

Brentz with his 26th tonight (THUR)! He's 2 for 2 so far (.282 BA).

 

I've never been high on this guy, but how great can a guy do and not be called up?

 

No room for him

[sk7326]

Brentz with his 26th tonight (THUR)! He's 2 for 2 so far (.282 BA).

 

I've never been high on this guy, but how great can a guy do and not be called up?

 

See Lancelloti, Rick or Davis, Crash

 

He'll be up in September and there will be postseason roster spots if he earns it

[Nick]

See Lancelloti, Rick or Davis, Crash

 

He'll be up in September and there will be postseason roster spots if he earns it

 

Now that we have Nunez, is there a need for Holt? Brentz should learn to play 1B.

[bowman]

I have to agree with that. He at least has to get a look, unless the scouts know something we don't. He was a hot prospect a couple years ago, but slid off the radar. At 28 years old who knows. I'm sure a lot of teams must be watching him right now.

[BstHcpr]

They aren't.

[BstHcpr]

He's a bad defensive OF, who is 29, and repeating AAA for the fourth time. He is not valuable. He is a AAAA player.

[moonslav59]

See Lancelloti, Rick or Davis, Crash

 

He'll be up in September and there will be postseason roster spots if he earns it

 

He's got to be added to the 40 man roster by September 1st, if I remember correctly.

[moonslav59]

Now that we have Nunez, is there a need for Holt?

 

With Marco Hernandez gone, Holt provides extended depth, but yeah, he's behing Nunez at every position.

 

Next year, Nunez is likely gone though.

 

 

Brentz should learn to play 1B.

 

They gave Bogey 10 games to learn 3B. They gave Moncada 10 games to learn 3B. I can't remember the how many games Betts got before he was moved to CF (then RF).

 

Heck, Brentz could be ready in 9 days!

 

(Just kidding.)

 

Brentz will likely be added to the 40 man roster (boot Selsky or Rutledge) and brought up in September.

[Larry Cook]

Now that we have Nunez, is there a need for Holt?

 

With Marco Hernandez gone, Holt provides extended depth, but yeah, he's behing Nunez at every position.

 

Next year, Nunez is likely gone though.

 

 

Brentz should learn to play 1B.

 

They gave Bogey 10 games to learn 3B. They gave Moncada 10 games to learn 3B. I can't remember the how many games Betts got before he was moved to CF (then RF).

 

Heck, Brentz could be ready in 9 days!

 

(Just kidding.)

 

Brentz will likely be added to the 40 man roster (boot Selsky or Rutledge) and brought up in September.

 

Wasn't Rutledge a rule 5 claim. Can't we give him back at any time?

[moonslav59]

Wasn't Rutledge a rule 5 claim. Can't we give him back at any time?

 

Either way. He won't be back next year, anyways.

[Larry Cook]

Either way. He won't be back next year, anyways.

 

That was my hope as well.

[moonslav59]

With rule 5 players to join the roster, a FA or two to add, 60 day DL players coming back to the 40 man, we'll be losing 3-5 guys off the 40 man roster beyond the FA departees: Young, Moreland, Abad, Boyer, Fister, Nunez and Reed.

 

My top candidates to be gone by next year (trade, non tender or DFA):

Selsky

N Ramirez

R Elias

H Owens

K Martin

 

We'll probably trade 1 or 2 from Holt, Lin and Marrero.

 

With a healthy Smith and Thornburg maybe we'll trade out-of-options Hembree.

 

Our pen could be deep:

Kimbrel

Smith

Thornburg

Kelly

Barnes

Workman

Wright

R Ross

Hembree

Scott

Maddox

Taylor

Johnson/Velazquez/Beeks/Haley

Martin/Cosart/others

[mvp 78]

Owens has one more option year. He'll stick around.

[Jasonbay44]

He's a bad defensive OF, who is 29, and repeating AAA for the fourth time. He is not valuable. He is a AAAA player.

He could be the next Jeff Bailey!

[moonslav59]

With a day off and nothing else to talk about, so let's look at next year's luxury tax budget (before signing or re-signing any players).

 

2018 Luxury Tax Dollars

31.0 Price

22.0 HRam

20.6 Porcello

19.0 Pablito

13.8 Pedey

12.0 Kimbrel (up $1.5M from 2017)

11.5 C Sale (up $5.0M from 2017)

117.4 for 7 Players (1 not on our roster)

 

Estimated Arb costs

~8.0 Pom 3 of 3

~7.5 Betts 1st of 3

~7.0 Bogey 2nd arb of 3

~7.0 JBJ 2 of 4

~3.5 Kelly 3 of 3

~2.5 Thornburg 2 of 3

~1.6 Wright 1 of 3

~1.5 ERod 1 of 4

~1.0 C Smith 1 of 3

~1.0 Vaz 1 of 3

40.6 for these 10 arb players

 

Total:$158M for 16 players on next year's roster.

 

Not mandatory arb-ready returnees:

R Ross 3 of 3 ~$2.5M

Holt 2 of 3 ~$2.5M

Leon 2 of 4 ~$2.25M

Rutledge 2 of 3 ~$1.0M

Swihart 1 of 4 ~$0.75M

Total: $9M optional for these 5 players combined.

 

I'll assume we keep Ross and Leon for about $5M. New total: $163M for 18 players on the 40 man 2018 Roster. If we fill the rest of the roster with minimum salary players (not likely), the other 22 players would cost close to $13M.

 

Total 2018 Luxury Tax Budget (before any signings):

 

$176M + $14M player beneifit cost= $190M

 

The luxury Tax threshold next year is $197M.

 

With the tax res-set this year, we could easily go over the limit by about $19M without incurring draft pick penalties. That's a total of close to $26M to spend on upgrading the roster with an acquisition(s).

 

That's probably enough for a solid 1Bman, or maybe we could sign Nunez, let Holt go, and maybe add another mid level player in the off season of during the 2018 season at a pro-rated salary cost (like Nunez and Reed this summer).

 

[moonslav59]

The Yankees lose.

 

The Guardians Lose.

 

Brentz HRs again.

 

Mata 5.2 IP 2 ER 6 H 2BB 6Ks