Red Sox Trade Deadline 2017 Thread

[Kimmi]

I think there was a study which showed that you want your best hitter batting 2nd ... as far as the optimal balance between number of at-bats, and run scoring opportunities ... but again, the differences are pretty small.

 

That could be. I have not seen that study, but it would not surprise me. I do know that the #2 slot has been the most undervalued slot in the line up, based on the types of hitters that managers put in the 2 hole. That is slowly changing though.

[Emp9]

Then why does everyone.. .including Kimmie... keep wanting to tinker with the lineup in spite of the fact that the Sox are currently on an offensive tear?? !!

 

I have a phrase for it.. .some people can't stand prosperity!

 

Wow, that's a short memory. I took a while for this offensive tear to happen. It's only just happen this past week or so. Which leads me to say it would've happened irregardless (). I'been saying all along we're a 2nd half team. It's certainly not an optimized lineup though and until it is, when we don't score enough and lose, I will continue to point to this fact whether anyone on here likes it or not.

[Jack Flap]

Agreed, and I'd say no.

 

I don't think Groome, Travis and Beeks would be enough.

 

 

Same here.

 

This may be heresy, but Donaldson is also 31 now and not having as brilliant a season as he has in years past. I would have to question whether that's someone you give up several (if not all) of your best remaining trade chips for -- though, having already established this 2-3 year window at great expense, Dombrowski may see it differently.

[Bellhorn04]

It's certainly not an optimized lineup though and until it is, when we don't score enough and lose, I will continue to point to this fact whether anyone on here likes it or not.

 

I already don't like it even before you have a chance to say it.

[moonslav59]

Same here.

 

This may be heresy, but Donaldson is also 31 now and not having as brilliant a season as he has in years past. I would have to question whether that's someone you give up several (if not all) of your best remaining trade chips for -- though, having already established this 2-3 year window at great expense, Dombrowski may see it differently.

 

Certainly DD may see things differently than most of us. I've been against many of his trades, although I am not close to thinking he should be replaced.

 

I would not trade what I feel would be needed to get Donaldson. His 2 playoff seasons of team control hold enormous value. He's still a big difference maker at age 31. He's missed some games this year, and his health status would factor into the return needed in trade to get him, but he's still got an .819 OPS, which blows our 3Bmen away. He's also 6th in UZR/150 for all 3Bmen with over 300 innings at the hot corner.

 

Donaldson would probably bat clean-up for us day one. He'd be a huge get for DD. The 2 year window would be greatly improved (on paper). He just might do it.

 

I'm against the trade for two main reasons:

 

1) I think Devers can help us not only in the same 2 year window as Josh, but also for 3-4 years afterwards.

2) Donaldson's contractual costs will take away our ability to fill other needs next year, including a possible extension to young stud.

[Emp9]

I already don't like it even before you have a chance to say it.

 

I wouldn't have it any other way.

 

Look, you, Kimmi, S5, Hop, you're all great posters, I just adamantly disagree on this topic. It's starting to mentally pain me to still see Betts atop the order every single f***ing game when I know there's a better way ( a couple different better ways actually). I feel like the best part of our offense is tethered to the bottom of the order." As the bottom of the order goes, we go"... I guess now.

[notin]

I don't see us giving up Devers for Donaldson.

 

 

Teams are giving up those blue chip prospects at the deadline more often now. Prospect value is down. That's how the Yankees rebuilt the farm quickly..

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't have it any other way.

 

Look, you, Kimmi, S5, Hop, you're all great posters, I just adamantly disagree on this topic. It's starting to mentally pain me to still see Betts atop the order every single f***ing game when I know there's a better way ( a couple different better ways actually). I feel like the best part of our offense is tethered to the bottom of the order." As the bottom of the order goes, we go"... I guess now.

 

It doesn't bother me that much, especially as we keep on winning, but I agree. Betts up first makes little sense to me in light of the fact that we have so little power in the middle of our order.

[Spudboy]

I would like to see Farrell draw names from a hat every day for a while just to see if the lineup variation has a big impact on productivity.

 

Of course whatever happens will be explained away as random and a small sample size.

 

So much for my ideas!

[moonslav59]

Teams are giving up those blue chip prospects at the deadline more often now. Prospect value is down. That's how the Yankees rebuilt the farm quickly..

 

It does seem like prospects are traded more often, but it seems like prospect deals from long ago involved more prospects for one player. In that sense, it takes less prospects to get a valuable piece, so wouldn't that mean today's prospects have higher value than before? (assuming my hypothesis is true)

[cp176]

I would like to see Farrell draw names from a hat every day for a while just to see if the lineup variation has a big impact on productivity.

 

Of course whatever happens will be explained away as random and a small sample size.

 

So much for my ideas!

 

Your ideas are great and needed you traditional, old school, old young guy. young in thought I'd say for sure.

[SoxHop]

I'd really like to see the stats and math behind the proposed most effective lineup.

 

I mean, what if one guy did the research and was a quack?

 

I've seriously been wracking my brain over it the last couple days. What if you have two Ichiro Suzuki types in the 1 and two slot? What if we have The not presently crushing the ball type Marrero players in the 8 and 9 hole? Is that still the most effective?

 

I'm semi convinced. But I'd like to see the numbers...

[Bellhorn04]

I'd really like to see the stats and math behind the proposed most effective lineup.

 

I mean, what if one guy did the research and was a quack?

 

I've seriously been wracking my brain over it the last couple days. What if you have two Ichiro Suzuki types in the 1 and two slot? What if we have The not presently crushing the ball type Marrero players in the 8 and 9 hole? Is that still the most effective?

 

I'm semi convinced. But I'd like to see the numbers...

 

I say let the team do all the brain-wracking.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I've been watching the Yankees-Toronto series and I've never seen J.Donaldson look this bad. Not sure what is wrong with him--maybe he is just going through a bad stretch. He can't lay off pitches out of the zone and he throws the bat at the ball (literally). I would not trade Devers or Groome for him. This isn't the J.Donaldson from last year or the year before that.

 

Based on how he looks now, Donaldson will not be much of a solution to the black hole at 3b. The drop-off is so noticeable, perhaps he is playing through an injury of some sort. If he is injured, that isn't going to help the Red Sox.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Kimmi]

I would like to see Farrell draw names from a hat every day for a while just to see if the lineup variation has a big impact on productivity.

 

Of course whatever happens will be explained away as random and a small sample size.

 

So much for my ideas!

 

You would be surprised, I think, at how little impact it has.

[Kimmi]

I'd really like to see the stats and math behind the proposed most effective lineup.

 

I mean, what if one guy did the research and was a quack?

 

I've seriously been wracking my brain over it the last couple days. What if you have two Ichiro Suzuki types in the 1 and two slot? What if we have The not presently crushing the ball type Marrero players in the 8 and 9 hole? Is that still the most effective?

 

I'm semi convinced. But I'd like to see the numbers...

 

The topic has been researched by many 'quacks', and they come up with more or less the same conclusion. Here is a nice synopsis on the topic:

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

[SoxHop]

The topic has been researched by many 'quacks', and they come up with more or less the same conclusion. Here is a nice synopsis on the topic:

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

Interesting.....

 

I figured they did the math and I was joking around about being quacks.

 

I'm going to order the book. Heck, it's only 13 bucks. I'd like to see the stats they put behind what they have come up with.

[moonslav59]

The topic has been researched by many 'quacks', and they come up with more or less the same conclusion. Here is a nice synopsis on the topic:

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

Thanks. I'll get the book soon. I need some good summer reading while lakeside in Maine.

[SoxHop]

Thanks. I'll get the book soon. I need some good summer reading while lakeside in Maine.

 

I just ordered one. 13 bucks on Amazon... used but good condition.......

 

I'm going to be more smart than you people. That book make me smart more than you in baseball you can't understand my smrt way I be or tipe post on massage board...... suckers..

[moonslav59]

I just ordered one. 13 bucks on Amazon... used but good condition.......

 

I'm going to be more smart than you people. That book make me smart more than you in baseball you can't understand my smrt way I be or tipe post on massage board...... suckers..

 

But, wat abowt street smartes?

 

Their's no boke four dat!

[Spudboy]

You would be surprised, I think, at how little impact it has.

 

No Kimmi. I get what you taught us about lineup construction.

 

I have seen enough lineups this year and in years past to understand what the data says.

 

Even 62 year old dogs can learn.

[oldtimer]

No Kimmi. I get what you taught us about lineup construction.

 

I have seen enough lineups this year and in years past to understand what the data says.

 

Even 62 year old dogs can learn.

 

I guess I am too old to be taught. You can make a case for just about anything with statistical analysis but only a few cases make actual sense. I'll stick with what I have learned through many years of playing and watching the game.

[cp176]

I guess I am too old to be taught. You can make a case for just about anything with statistical analysis but only a few cases make actual sense. I'll stick with what I have learned through many years of playing and watching the game.

 

You are not too old to be taught or to learn something new. We seem to be in a time where compromising doesn't happen often even in silly debate. You are either on one side or the other. Normally I don't even listen to people who claim to be right all of the time. Most of the time they aren't. Using all available data combined with the wisdom gained from experience then forming an opinion and a plan is the way to go for me. I probably will never let go of the things that I absolutely believe to be true but I'm always open to new ways of looking at things if they make a little common sense.

[oldtimer]

I am including a long article about injury rate and type for those with a lot of time on their hands. It might be useful in determining what to do with trades going forward since one can get an idea of the type of injuries we may face in the next few months that will need action by the front office. http://www.mdedge.com/amjorthopedics/article/106556/sports-medicine/injury-trends-major-league-baseball-over-18-seasons

 

Saying that, we are currently carrying 12 pitchers, 4 outfielders, 2 catchers and 7 infielders (Hanley fits that category). Our current 10 day disaabled list guys are Johnson, E-Rod, Ross, Rutledge and Sandoval. We also have Workman, Swihart and Devers in the minors who are candidates for call up.

 

The most likely guy to force his way back to the roster is E-Rod, at which time we might return one of Travis, Marerro or Lin to the minors and keep 13 pitchers( keeping Fister for long relief). An injury to the outfield might involve calling up Holt, Selsky or Brentz (sp). An injury at catcher might move Swihart up. To improve the team we might bring Devers up ad keep Lin with him, moving Travis or Marerro down. I don't see Rutledge, Holt or Sandoval making it back unless it be a late season call up. We may either have to trade these guys or cut them loose. Don't see a lot of room here for an acquisition from outside.

 

Be interesting to hear what others think.

[moonslav59]

I am including a long article about injury rate and type for those with a lot of time on their hands. It might be useful in determining what to do with trades going forward since one can get an idea of the type of injuries we may face in the next few months that will need action by the front office. http://www.mdedge.com/amjorthopedics/article/106556/sports-medicine/injury-trends-major-league-baseball-over-18-seasons

 

Saying that, we are currently carrying 12 pitchers, 4 outfielders, 2 catchers and 7 infielders (Hanley fits that category). Our current 10 day disaabled list guys are Johnson, E-Rod, Ross, Rutledge and Sandoval. We also have Workman, Swihart and Devers in the minors who are candidates for call up.

 

The most likely guy to force his way back to the roster is E-Rod, at which time we might return one of Travis, Marerro or Lin to the minors and keep 13 pitchers( keeping Fister for long relief). An injury to the outfield might involve calling up Holt, Selsky or Brentz (sp). An injury at catcher might move Swihart up. To improve the team we might bring Devers up ad keep Lin with him, moving Travis or Marerro down. I don't see Rutledge, Holt or Sandoval making it back unless it be a late season call up. We may either have to trade these guys or cut them loose. Don't see a lot of room here for an acquisition from outside.

 

Be interesting to hear what others think.

 

We hardly ever go with 13 pitchers.

 

When ERod returns, I think Fister goes down. He's not a RP'er.

 

Boyer is out of options, so he'd have to be exposed to waivers.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The Royals are 1/2 behind the Guardians; 1/2 game behind the Yankees for the first wild card; and they are one game up on the Twins and Rays for the second wild card. If the season ended today, the Yankees and Royals would be the wild cards.

 

Yesterday on MLB Network, one of the insiders -- I don't remember his name -- said the Royals will be buyers at the deadline, not sellers. He said D.Moore believes in the team.

 

In other words, the Mike Moustakas train isn't coming to Boston. I think we can put that one to rest and think about other 3b trade options, including the idea of promoting Devers.

 

The Yankees hold on a wild card is pretty tenuous right now. They are definitely trending in the wrong direction. I'm looking forward to watching them collapse when A.Judge endures an historic second half slump. Oh baby! That'll be fun to watch!

Edited July 6, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

The Royals are 1/2 behind the Guardians; 1/2 game behind the Yankees for the first wild card; and they are one game up on the Twins and Rays for the second wild card. If the season ended today, the Yankees and Royals would be the wild cards.

 

Yesterday on MLB Network, one of the insiders -- I don't remember his name -- said the Royals will be buyers at the deadline, not sellers. He said D.Moore believes in the team.

 

In other words, the Mike Moustakas train isn't coming to Boston. I think we can put that one to rest and think about other 3b trade options, including the idea of promoting Devers.

 

The Yankees hold on a wild card is pretty tenuous right now. They are definitely trending in the wrong direction. I'm looking forward to watching them collapse when A.Judge endures an historic second half slump. Oh baby! That'll be fun to watch!

 

I'm glad the Royals staying in the playoff hunt might prevent DD from doing something not too far-sighted (again).

[Emp9]

I hate rooting for failure on a team I don't despise, but if Pittsburgh falls off the map (even when Marte is done w/ suspension he can't participate in postseason play, rumors McCutchen cld be traded, they cld be sellers), I hope J Harrison cld be available. But I know he has a 2nd year left on his contract besides this season, I'm not sure if that would put us over LTL? That's before getting into what Pit. Would want in return.

[moonslav59]

I hate rooting for failure on a team I don't despise, but if Pittsburgh falls off the map (even when Marte is done w/ suspension he can't participate in postseason play, rumors McCutchen cld be traded, they cld be sellers), I hope J Harrison cld be available. But I know he has a 2nd year left on his contract besides this season, I'm not sure if that would put us over LTL? That's before getting into what Pit. Would want in return.

 

McCutchen's AVV is about $8.5M. His 2018 option is $14.5M, but I think it only counts as $13.5, since the buyout of $1M counted against earlier contract years.

 

Harrison's AVV is just under $7M and he's under control through 2018. He also has 2 option years remaining that may up his value: 2019 at $10.5M and 2020 at $11.5M.

 

If we trade at the deadline, we are only on the hook for about 1/3 of their contract this year. That means McCutch would count as about $3M and Harrison as about $2.5M.

I'm pretty sure we could get both and stay under for this year. We could also trade away Abad or some other contract to make sure we stay under.

 

My problem with McCucth is that we'd have no place to play him. Harrison, yes- McCutch no.

 

David Freese could also be a lower cost option.

[moonslav59]

best 3bmen by WAR in 2017 on probable/possible non contending teams:

 

2.3 Gyorko STL

2.3 Harrison Pitt

22. Sano MN

2.1 J LAmb AZ

1.7 J Gallo TX

1.6 E Saurez CIN

1.5 M Machado BAL

1.2 T Frazier CWS

1.1 Y Escobar LAA

1.0 E NUnez SFG

0.9 D Freese Pitt