Should the Red Sox Acquire Adrian Beltre?

[harmony]

Beltre is also under contract for 2018. That might reduce what the Rangers will take because it is a substantial salary dump.

The added year of team control should add to the trade value of a player who has been averaged $42 million in value in his six seasons with Texas:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B#value

 

Sure, Adrian Beltre is likely to regress with age, but he should still provide surplus value with his $18 million annual salary. The Rangers, who don't share the Red Sox luxury tax concerns, probably are not looking to dump salary.

[S5Dewey]

 

Sure, Adrian Beltre is likely to regress with age, but he should still provide surplus value with his $18 million annual salary. The Rangers, who don't share the Red Sox luxury tax concerns, probably are not looking to dump salary.

 

I look at that differently. I see the Sox as a team that's willing to spend big in an effort to win big. That's what got them up against the LT limit. OTOH, the Rangers are a team with different financial restraints and, well, $30M (spead over two years) is still $30M and that's may be more than they want to spend for a player on a team that's not going to win whether it's with him or without him. A classic salary dump.

 

The downside to this as I see it isn't this year - it's the $18M in 2018.

 

IMO it's becoming more obvious all the time that the Sox only have two roads to follow to improve at 3B. Either spend some resources (money or trade) to acquire a 3B or take a chance on bringing up Devers, because what's "working" now isn't working.

 

I don't even have a strong preference as to which road to follow, but if they're going to try to sign someone else they should be inquiring about the best who may be available. Either that will work out or it won't but at least the FO will know.

[Bellhorn04]

The added year of team control should add to the trade value of a player who has been averaged $42 million in value in his six seasons with Texas:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B#value

 

Sure, Adrian Beltre is likely to regress with age, but he should still provide surplus value with his $18 million annual salary. The Rangers, who don't share the Red Sox luxury tax concerns, probably are not looking to dump salary.

 

No doubt you're right, harmony. We're sort of grasping at straws here.

[Kimmi]

No doubt you're right, harmony. We're sort of grasping at straws here.

 

'Grasping at straws', just like 'a sense of urgency', sounds like code for 'panicking'. It's too early for that!

 

Whatever happened to waiting until at least Memorial Day?

 

Being the only cool head on this board is too much work...

[a700hitter]

'Grasping at straws', just like 'a sense of urgency', sounds like code for 'panicking'. It's too early for that!

 

Whatever happened to waiting until at least Memorial Day?

 

Being the only cool head on this board is too much work...

Who is beating the drum to do this now? That is in your head. We are looking down the road. Texas isn't going to start selling off stars in May. No team is, but as we progress through June if they are still in last place I think Beltre will be available around the All Star break. Generally, no one makes deals before the All Star Break. No one is panicking. We are just planning and shopping around. There is a huge hole at 3B defensively and offensively (against LHP especially) even if Panda is healthy. It is not going to resolve itself. A new player from within or outside the organization is needed to solidify that glaring weakness. That is not panic It is sound judgment based on observation.

[harmony]

Who is beating the drum to do this now? That is in your head. We are looking down the road. Texas isn't going to start selling off stars in May. No team is, but as we progress through June if they are still in last place I think Beltre will be available around the All Star break. Generally, no one makes deals before the All Star Break. No one is panicking. We are just planning and shopping around. There is a huge hole at 3B defensively and offensively (against LHP especially) even if Panda is healthy. It is not going to resolve itself. A new player from within or outside the organization is needed to solidify that glaring weakness. That is not panic It is sound judgment based on observation.

The Texas Rangers are only two games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card race. I doubt either team will sell off.

 

Because the of luxury tax, the Red Sox probably face more financial constraint than the Rangers do. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Rangers have only $93 million (including Adrian Beltre's $18 million) committed to the 2018 payroll after opening this season with a $165 million payroll:

 

 

Meanwhile, the Red Sox already have $123 million committed to the 2018 payroll after opening this season with a $197 million payroll:

 

 

Texas does not have a small-market team looking to shed payroll. With the nation's fifth-largest television, the Rangers rank 11th with a team valuation of $1.55 billion, according to Forbes magazine:

 

https://www.forbes.com/pictures/58cc474f31358e1a35ad373d/11-texas-rangers/#112282b164c6

 

The Red Sox rank third in team valuation at $2.7 billion, albeit with slower one-year growth than the Rangers:

 

https://www.forbes.com/pictures/58cc474f31358e1a35ad373d/3-boston-red-sox/#7c1449077275

 

I doubt the Rangers would trade Beltre for anyone short of Rafael Devers ... and even Devers might not be enough.

[a700hitter]

The Texas Rangers are only two games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card race. I doubt either team will sell off.

 

Because the of luxury tax, the Red Sox probably face more financial constraint than the Rangers do. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Rangers have only $93 million (including Adrian Beltre's $18 million) committed to the 2018 payroll after opening this season with a $165 million payroll:

 

 

Meanwhile, the Red Sox already have $123 million committed to the 2018 payroll after opening this season with a $197 million payroll:

 

 

Texas does not have a small-market team looking to shed payroll. With the nation's fifth-largest television, the Rangers rank 11th with a team valuation of $1.55 billion, according to Forbes magazine:

 

https://www.forbes.com/pictures/58cc474f31358e1a35ad373d/11-texas-rangers/#112282b164c6

 

The Red Sox rank third in team valuation at $2.7 billion, albeit with slower one-year growth than the Rangers:

 

https://www.forbes.com/pictures/58cc474f31358e1a35ad373d/3-boston-red-sox/#7c1449077275

 

I doubt the Rangers would trade Beltre for anyone short of Rafael Devers ... and even Devers might not be enough.

Where the teams are in the standings in late June will dictate whether these teams are buyers or sellers. We will just have to wait and let that play out.

 

As for the price for Beltre, maybe the Rangers demand Devers if they eat all of his 2017 and most of his 2018 salary, but not if the Red Sox are picking up the freight cost. If they want to clear a path for Joey Gallo, they might want to shed some payroll too. I doubt that they can land a Devers level prospect for a 38 year old who is owed $18 million for 2019 when he will be 39. Certainly, there is no downside to the Red Sox making an inquiry about Beltre as the season progresses, and we have a giant need at 3B. Other guys to inquire about would be Todd Frazier Moustakas.

[Emp9]

"I doubt the Rangers would trade Beltre for anyone short of Rafael Devers ... and even Devers might not be enough."

 

Yeah, OK:rolleyes:

[harmony]

"I doubt the Rangers would trade Beltre for anyone short of Rafael Devers ... and even Devers might not be enough."

 

Yeah, OK:rolleyes:

Drew Pomeranz cost the Red Sox prospect Anderson Espinoza, whom Baseball America had ranked 15th on its midseason prospect list last year:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#A5YoTVrM4rUspElO.97

 

Drew Pomeranz!

 

In its updated prospect rankings this week, Baseball America has Rafael Devers at No. 14:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-updated-may-11/#pr7P2jBAs4xC0EL0.97

 

What is the comparative worth of two-and-a-half years of Drew Pomeranz, who last year posted half of his career value of $47.3 million, and one-and-a-half years of future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre, who has posted an average annual value of $42 million over the past six seasons?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P#value

[a700hitter]

Drew Pomeranz cost the Red Sox prospect Anderson Espinoza, whom Baseball America had ranked 15th on its midseason prospect list last year:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#A5YoTVrM4rUspElO.97

 

Drew Pomeranz!

 

In its updated prospect rankings this week, Baseball America has Rafael Devers at No. 14:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-updated-may-11/#pr7P2jBAs4xC0EL0.97

 

What is the comparative worth of two-and-a-half years of Drew Pomeranz, who last year posted half of his career value of $47.3 million, and one-and-a-half years of future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre, who has posted an average annual value of $42 million over the past six seasons?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P#value

There are big differences. Whatever Pomeranz is, he is approaching or is in his prime. Beltre is at the end of his career and comes with a 2018 price tag of $18 million. Pomerance costs about $3 million/year and we have him under control for a few years, which is a very cheap price for a starting pitcher in your MLB rotation. Devers has a late 2017 -early 2018 exected arrival date. Espinoza is expected about 2020-21.

[harmony]

There are big differences. Whatever Pomeranz is, he is approaching or is in his prime. Beltre is at the end of his career and comes with a 2018 price tag of $18 million. Pomerance costs about $3 million/year and we have him under control for a few years, which is a very cheap price for a starting pitcher in your MLB rotation. Devers has a late 2017 -early 2018 exected arrival date. Espinoza is expected about 2020-21.

Drew Pomeranz in his prime has posted 0.1 fWAR in six starts this year with a $4.45 million annual salary in his second to last season before free agency. Pomeranz's fWAR this year has topped that of Adrian Beltre, who has been sidelined with an injury.

[Bellhorn04]

Drew Pomeranz in his prime has posted 0.1 fWAR in six starts this year with a $4.45 million annual salary in his second to last season before free agency. Pomeranz's fWAR this year has topped that of Adrian Beltre, who has been sidelined with an injury.

 

What was Pomeranz's projected WAR when we acquired him? What is Beltre's projected WAR now? Aren't those the relevant numbers?

[a700hitter]

What was Pomeranz's projected WAR when we acquired him? What is Beltre's projected WAR now? Aren't those the relevant numbers?

It's not really a Pomeranz vs. Beltre issue.

[S5Dewey]

The Texas Rangers are only two games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card race. I doubt either team will sell off.

 

Because the of luxury tax, the Red Sox probably face more financial constraint than the Rangers do. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Rangers have only $93 million (including Adrian Beltre's $18 million) committed to the 2018 payroll after opening this season with a $165 million payroll:

 

Meanwhile, the Red Sox already have $123 million committed to the 2018 payroll after opening this season with a $197 million payroll:

 

Texas does not have a small-market team looking to shed payroll. With the nation's fifth-largest television, the Rangers rank 11th with a team valuation of $1.55 billion, according to Forbes magazine

 

I doubt the Rangers would trade Beltre for anyone short of Rafael Devers ... and even Devers might not be enough.

 

When it comes to team payroll all fiscal restraints are self-inflicted. As you proved, the Rangers have the money to spend but they don't begin to want to spend like the Sox do. The Rangers can shed $30M in one fell swoop which, given where they are, could sound very attractive to them, either in terms of what the owners can pocket or in terms of what they can do with $30M in acquiring players.

 

...And if you're right that Even Devers might not be enough to lure Beltre to the Sox then Beltre should be buying a house in Texas because no team in their right mind is going to pay more than that for him - or even that much.

[harmony]

When it comes to team payroll all fiscal restraints are self-inflicted. As you proved, the Rangers have the money to spend but they don't begin to want to spend like the Sox do. The Rangers can shed $30M in one fell swoop which, given where they are, could sound very attractive to them, either in terms of what the owners can pocket or in terms of what they can do with $30M in acquiring players.

 

...And if you're right that Even Devers might not be enough to lure Beltre to the Sox then Beltre should be buying a house in Texas because no team in their right mind is going to pay more than that for him - or even that much.

Many folks on Red Sox forums would not have traded Anderson Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz, Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Logan Allen and Carlos Asuaje for Craig Kimbrel, or Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz for Chris Sale. The initial negative reaction to each trade ranged from mild to harsh. Through a grieving-type process, many Sox fans came to accept each trade.

 

My point is that perceived value evolves over time. Before a trade a fan tends to overvalue the assets of his or her team while undervaluing the assets of other teams. A trade itself can change the perception.

[a700hitter]

Many folks on Red Sox forums would not have traded Anderson Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz, Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Logan Allen and Carlos Asuaje for Craig Kimbrel, or Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz for Chris Sale. The initial negative reaction to each trade ranged from mild to harsh. Through a grieving-type process, many Sox fans came to accept each trade.

 

My point is that perceived value evolves over time. Before a trade a fan tends to overvalue the assets of his or her team while undervaluing the assets of other teams. A trade itself can change the perception.

But the FO should not have a false impression of the value of their assets or they are not doing their job. Devers is pretty close to MLB ready. He is a much more valuable chip then all of the others traded except for Moncada (and he netted us a super star starting pither)

[sk7326]

If the Rangers fall out of it - it's possible ... although Gallo can move to 1st base too. The additional year of control makes Beltre more expensive. Olney on ESPN noted that the team is scouting Devers (who has gotten off to a pretty ridiculous start at Portland as one of the youngest regulars in AA - small sample sizes of course) to see whether simply bringing him up in June, putting his at the #9 position and let him figure it out.

 

Now Devers could be moved for a starting pitcher ... but I think the team also strategically emptied its biggest bullets on that front already. They kept Devers over Moncada for a reason.

[cp176]

With respect to keeping Devers over Moncada, i don't think that they were really looking that far ahead. Substitute Devers for Moncada and I'm pretty sure Sale does not come to Boston. No one really had a thought of Devers potentially being in Boston this summer.

[a700hitter]

With respect to keeping Devers over Moncada, i don't think that they were really looking that far ahead. Substitute Devers for Moncada and I'm pretty sure Sale does not come to Boston. No one really had a thought of Devers potentially being in Boston this summer.

I agree. Moncada was the Big Blue Chip with the "Can't Miss" tag.

[Kimmi]

Who is beating the drum to do this now? That is in your head. We are looking down the road. Texas isn't going to start selling off stars in May. No team is, but as we progress through June if they are still in last place I think Beltre will be available around the All Star break. Generally, no one makes deals before the All Star Break. No one is panicking. We are just planning and shopping around. There is a huge hole at 3B defensively and offensively (against LHP especially) even if Panda is healthy. It is not going to resolve itself. A new player from within or outside the organization is needed to solidify that glaring weakness. That is not panic It is sound judgment based on observation.

 

There are fans who are most definitely in panic mode. Just sayin'.

[a700hitter]

There are fans who are most definitely in panic mode. Just sayin'.

You probably are right about that.

[sk7326]

With respect to keeping Devers over Moncada, i don't think that they were really looking that far ahead. Substitute Devers for Moncada and I'm pretty sure Sale does not come to Boston. No one really had a thought of Devers potentially being in Boston this summer.

 

These guys self scout constantrly - I think they knew they had something legit in Benintendi and Devers. I don't think they thought Devers would be in Boston this season - but he could be forcing them to re-look at it. It's early - but the signs are interesting. And we know DD will promote a guy aggressively if he believes in the kid.

[cp176]

These guys self scout constantrly - I think they knew they had something legit in Benintendi and Devers. I don't think they thought Devers would be in Boston this season - but he could be forcing them to re-look at it. It's early - but the signs are interesting. And we know DD will promote a guy aggressively if he believes in the kid.

 

I think that you are right. i hope that it doesn't turn out badly for Devers if in fact he is just not ready. Suspect Chavis will soon start to move up through the system as well. The contingency plan for what to do if Sandoval didn't do was weak and I'm sure that they were uncomfortable putting that much faith in a successful Pablo return. Like most here, i really wanted them to resign Beltre when they could have (should have - thanks whoever the gm was at the time) but I would not trade anyone that might make an impact for us for him now. Got to look ahead not behind. Sandoval will likely get one more shot but it won't surprise me if he is gone before this season ends. One way or another.

[Kimmi]

I think that you are right. i hope that it doesn't turn out badly for Devers if in fact he is just not ready. Suspect Chavis will soon start to move up through the system as well. The contingency plan for what to do if Sandoval didn't do was weak and I'm sure that they were uncomfortable putting that much faith in a successful Pablo return. Like most here, i really wanted them to resign Beltre when they could have (should have - thanks whoever the gm was at the time) but I would not trade anyone that might make an impact for us for him now. Got to look ahead not behind. Sandoval will likely get one more shot but it won't surprise me if he is gone before this season ends. One way or another.

 

1. On the first bold statement, I agree. I know our situation at 3B has been bad with the # of injuries, but there really wasn't a good back up plan, in other words good depth, at 3B in case of a long term injury.

 

2. On the second bold statement,

[cp176]

1. On the first bold statement, I agree. I know our situation at 3B has been bad with the # of injuries, but there really wasn't a good back up plan, in other words good depth, at 3B in case of a long term injury.

 

2. On the second bold statement,

 

What do those little yellow circley things mean and how do you do that bold thing anyway? i might be able to get a little snarky(lol) if I learn how to pick and choose little things that I read from other people's postings. remember that I'm one of the guys here who isn't all that sharp. have trouble with big words and understanding advanced metrics.

 

i'm just fooling around - it is a rainy day (as it has been since the middle of April) and i am bored. You have a great Mother's Day!

[Kimmi]

What do those little yellow circley things mean and how do you do that bold thing anyway? i might be able to get a little snarky(lol) if I learn how to pick and choose little things that I read from other people's postings. remember that I'm one of the guys here who isn't all that sharp. have trouble with big words and understanding advanced metrics.

 

i'm just fooling around - it is a rainy day (as it has been since the middle of April) and i am bored. You have a great Mother's Day!

 

Thank you, I am having a fabulously relaxing Mother's Day (so far).

 

Happy Mother's Day to all of the wonderful moms in your life.

[a700hitter]

Thank you, I am having a fabulously relaxing Mother's Day (so far).

 

Happy Mother's Day to all of the wonderful moms in your life.

Happy Mothers Day!

[Kimmi]

Happy Mothers Day!

 

Thank you!

[devildavid]

I love Beltre but we already missed the boat on him. Too late now.

[oldtimer]

I love Beltre but we already missed the boat on him. Too late now.

 

Our recent history with FA and traded for field players is poor, while our home grown players has been good. Maybe we need to stay on our strength and bring up Devers instead of bringing in some has been star. Beltre was probably still capable and I am not knocking him but if I was selling the Brooklyn Bridge, I would look to the Sox front office

for interest.