Should Jackie Bradley Jr be traded?

[moonslav59]

I could see us trading JBJ next winter, and maybe he'd be part of a package for a better starter than a number 4 type. I may be biased, but I think he's worth a solid #3 straight up.

 

It always seems like GMs ask about JBJ. Maybe they just figure we're not dealing Betts or Beni. I do think GMs value JBJ's defense more than some here might think.

 

[moonslav59]

Suppose someone like Swihart becomes the fourth outfielder with JD starting in left.

 

Johnson takes over the fifth rotation spot.

 

If we trade JBJ for pitching or prospects, I think Nunez plays LF more than Swihart.

[Emp9]

So, arbitration is predominantly performanced-based, and then compared to the rest of the league based on that position. And let’s be honest, offensive numbers really drive the salaries up, at least from what I’ve always seen. So, if JBJ “sucks” so much (offensively), can someone remind me how he’ll supposedly “cost too much” via arbitration?

 

Now, I suppose if JBJ wins a GG, he could see a hefty increase or starts mashing or both. Both JBJ & Betts have similar service times. And even though I believe JBJ is the better defensive OF (mostly due to his arm, he also gets to spots quicker. This is absolutely no slight on Betts), Betts has won the GG twice in RF, Jackie none yet for CF. JBJ has an AS appearance, Betts 3 AS. Betts ‘16 MVP runner up with 2 other MVP votes on radar, a SS award as well. Betts top of the lineup hitter, while JBJ dwells near the bottom typically. It’s easy to see Betts is by far the better offensive player. 2018: Betts $10M+. JBJ $6M+. If things stay the same, I don’t see a huge increase from the $6M JBJ is making this season. I’d love to hear some guess-timates.

 

And while I’m talking about these two. Starting out as a 2B and switching to OF his first year in majors and learning OF on the fly so to speak, does anyone else think Betts has learned a ton from having to play next to JBJ? Does Betts wins those GGs without that experience? In my mind, I’ve credited both of them for Bett’s GGs to a certain extent. Whether JBJ could argue that in his next arbitration hearing is beyond me though .

[moonslav59]

So, arbitration is predominantly performanced-based, and then compared to the rest of the league based on that position. And let’s be honest, offensive numbers really drive the salaries up, at least from what I’ve always seen. So, if JBJ “sucks” so much (offensively), can someone remind me how he’ll supposedly “cost too much” via arbitration?

 

Now, I suppose if JBJ wins a GG, he could see a hefty increase or starts mashing or both. Both JBJ & Betts have similar service times. And even though I believe JBJ is the better defensive OF (mostly due to his arm, he also gets to spots quicker. This is absolutely no slight on Betts), Betts has won the GG twice in RF, Jackie none yet for CF. JBJ has an AS appearance, Betts 3 AS. Betts ‘16 MVP runner up with 2 other MVP votes on radar, a SS award as well. Betts top of the lineup hitter, while JBJ dwells near the bottom typically. It’s easy to see Betts is by far the better offensive player. 2018: Betts $10M+. JBJ $6M+. If things stay the same, I don’t see a huge increase from the $6M JBJ is making this season. I’d love to hear some guess-timates.

 

And while I’m talking about these two. Starting out as a 2B and switching to OF his first year in majors and learning OF on the fly so to speak, does anyone else think Betts has learned a ton from having to play next to JBJ? Does Betts wins those GGs without that experience? In my mind, I’ve credited both of them for Bett’s GGs to a certain extent. Whether JBJ could argue that in his next arbitration hearing is beyond me though .

 

Arb contracts also have a lot to do with what arb year it is.

 

It's hard to compare the Betts arb with JBJ, because Betts' $10.5M was year one of 3 arbs. JBJ's $6.1M was in year 2 of 4 arbs.

 

 

I hope we can keep both of these guys. Having great defense in CF and RF in Fenways is a huge plus. I do get the point about redundancy and the idea of trying to keep JMart happy by getting him more OF time, so I could see us trading JBJ to either save $8-10M next year or find a SP'er to take Pom's place or closer to take Kimbrel's place.

[Emp9]

Arb contracts also have a lot to do with what arb year it is.

 

It's hard to compare the Betts arb with JBJ, because Betts' $10.5M was year one of 3 arbs. JBJ's $6.1M was in year 2 of 4 arbs.

 

 

I hope we can keep both of these guys. Having great defense in CF and RF in Fenways is a huge plus. I do get the point about redundancy and the idea of trying to keep JMart happy by getting him more OF time, so I could see us trading JBJ to either save $8-10M next year or find a SP'er to take Pom's place or closer to take Kimbrel's place.

 

I was trying to look that up but I couldn’t find anything related to increases based on number of years of Arbitration itself. Is there a percentage or average raise increase? MLBTR was pretty accurate for JBJ last October, projecting $5.9M, but was a bit off on Bett’s projecting $8.2M. I have a feeling JBJ’s will be easier to predict than Bett’s.

[Natick to NC]

Unless he truly is consistent with the bat this year ....he's done here .

[SoxHop]

I'd be looking to get something good for Bradley from some GM that reallly digs the defense. If he stays he stays, if he goes he goes....

[Emp9]

Would this past off-season Free Agent market affect next year’s arbitration cases in ANY way?

[cp176]

I am going to focus on the current year for sure but with that being said, there has been a lot of talk about such things as future expenses and some people are expressing concern about not being able to sign this guy or that guy. I say why? We certainly are what we are right now but other than a good number of our pitchers does anybody think that a large majority of these guys aren't replaceable either through trade or maybe even bringing up kids that might show some life on the farm this year. Oh I know - our farm is in terrible shape right - I say what do we have to lose if these guys as a group do not hit better than they did last year? regardless of how well JBJ fields, he is definitely replaceable. Of our everyday players - Betts and Bogaerts for me are keepers - the rest of the bunch at present - yawn. Pay Betts, make a solid offer for Bogaerts and if he wants more oh well. We do have some quality pitchers it seems. I'm going to enjoy this season but before I get too attached to anymore of these guys they are going to have to play better.

Forgot to add - keep Devers

Edited April 6, 2018 by cp176

[moonslav59]

I was trying to look that up but I couldn’t find anything related to increases based on number of years of Arbitration itself. Is there a percentage or average raise increase? MLBTR was pretty accurate for JBJ last October, projecting $5.9M, but was a bit off on Bett’s projecting $8.2M. I have a feeling JBJ’s will be easier to predict than Bett’s.

 

There's probably not any step raise percentages in writing, but I think the arb costs are predictable.

 

I'm pretty sure a 2nd year arb with a 4 year arb player is generally less cost than a 2nd year with a 3 year arb player- right or wrong. The 4th year arb player might make more in his 4th year than an equal player in the 3rd year of a 3 year arb situation.

 

We may trade or release some of our players up for arbs over the next few years, but we are going to be swamped with arb raises starting next winter.

 

208-2019 Winter (Current cost)

 

2 of 3 Betts ($10.5M)

3 of 3 Bogey ($7.1M)

3 of 4 JBJ ($6.1M)

2 of 3 ERod ($2.4M)

2 of 3 Wright ($1.1M)

2 of 3 Smith ($850K)

1 of 3 Barnes ($605K)

1 of 3 Hembree ($582K)

1 of 4 Swihart ($564K)

2 of 3 Workman ($min)

 

Bubble:

3 of 3 Holt ($2.2M)

3 of 4 Leon ($2M)

1 0f 3 Elias ($min)

 

 

 

 

It's kind of a messed up system, but it does allow players to make more before they reach free agency.

[kenmeister]

My guess is that they’re going to try seeing if keeping JD in the outfield has him more focused and improves his hitting. If that proves true, JBJ will lose out. I actually prefer a DH slot for rotating players rather than a dedicated player for it.

[Nick]

There's probably not any step raise percentages in writing, but I think the arb costs are predictable.

 

I'm pretty sure a 2nd year arb with a 4 year arb player is generally less cost than a 2nd year with a 3 year arb player- right or wrong. The 4th year arb player might make more in his 4th year than an equal player in the 3rd year of a 3 year arb situation.

 

We may trade or release some of our players up for arbs over the next few years, but we are going to be swamped with arb raises starting next winter.

 

208-2019 Winter (Current cost)

 

2 of 3 Betts ($10.5M)

3 of 3 Bogey ($7.1M)

3 of 4 JBJ ($6.1M)

2 of 3 ERod ($2.4M)

2 of 3 Wright ($1.1M)

2 of 3 Smith ($850K)

1 of 3 Barnes ($605K)

1 of 3 Hembree ($582K)

1 of 4 Swihart ($564K)

2 of 3 Workman ($min)

 

Bubble:

3 of 3 Holt ($2.2M)

3 of 4 Leon ($2M)

1 0f 3 Elias ($min)

 

 

 

 

It's kind of a messed up system, but it does allow players to make more before they reach free agency.

 

Obviously the first 3 will get expensive. I think E Rod's 2nd and 3rd year will not exceed that of Pom unless he has an outstanding year this year.

 

I think performances will dictate who to keep and who not to keep. It may also be a function of how others perform.

Edited April 6, 2018 by Nick

[mvp 78]

I seriously doubt any GM adds or subtracts value from any player based on a 7 game sample size.

 

I seriously doubt any GM would overlook his overall offensive struggles since last year.

[OH FOY]

I've been hard on JBJ, because I like him. His hitting approach pisses me off. But, even I don't start evaluating Players until 30 games into the season.

He could be a.280-.300 hitter, if he could just learn to hit the other way. Not try to pull the damn ball.

Edited April 6, 2018 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

He can get 1 single every 10 AB's and he is my starting CFer.

His D is that important to me

 

Not me, especially if RISP and 2 outs RISP. Too many Runners LOB, that could lead to runs. He has to improve. At least in this area. During a whole season, you'll never save that many runs on Defense.

1 for every 10 at bats, and his Defense is so important, then he is heading for the dreaded Defensive Replacement category.

Edited April 6, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Kimmi]

I do anticipate this is the last year for Bradley in Boston. He is about to get very expensive through the arb process and they have built in redundancy with JD Martinez capable of playing LF and Beni capable of playing CF. I think they will deal him for a mid rotation pitcher to replace Pomeranz

 

That is a possibility, but I certainly hope it doesn't come to fruition.

 

Our outfield defense would take a serious hit.

 

I am a huge JBJ supporter, streaky bat and all. I do not want him traded.

[Kimmi]

He can get 1 single every 10 AB's and he is my starting CFer.

His D is that important to me

 

^^This.

[Kimmi]

Not me, especially if RISP and 2 outs RISP. Too many Runners LOB, that could lead to runs. He has to improve. At least in this area. During a whole season, you'll never save that many runs on Defense.

1 for every 10 at bats, and his Defense is so important, then he is heading for the dreaded Defensive Replacement category.

 

Hitting .100 is a bit of a hyperbole, but as the saying goes, a run saved is as good as a run scored. JBJ is good enough defensively that his defense is worth keeping him on the field, even with his streaky bat.

[Nick]

Hitting .100 is a bit of a hyperbole, but as the saying goes, a run saved is as good as a run scored. JBJ is good enough defensively that his defense is worth keeping him on the field, even with his streaky bat.

 

What if you had to decide between Pom vs JBJ? What if Johnson can replace Pom?

 

I think it has to be priorities. What if we can keep both but we have to give up Kimbrel because Hanley vested?

 

Or do we keep EVERYONE including the FA knowing our payroll might hit $260M?

 

Who goes if you are in charge of this team?

 

Decision has to be made on Kimbrel, Pom and Kelly?

 

The topic of keeping/trading JBJ comes up because Betts is a keeper and Beni is under team control for 5 more years.

 

Simply saying keep JBJ seems like an inadequate response. It's got to be about the entire team.

 

Not picking on you. I just wonder what you are thinking? ("I want to enjoy this team play would be my guess".) ("I didn't want us to sign JD......."....I guess you did answer it )...I'm talking to myself now.

Edited April 6, 2018 by Nick

[Kimmi]

What if you had to decide between Pom vs JBJ? What if Johnson can replace Pom?

 

I think it has to be priorities. What if we can keep both but we have to give up Kimbrel because Hanley vested?

 

Or do we keep EVERYONE including the FA knowing our payroll might hit $260M?

 

Who goes if you are in charge of this team?

 

Decision has to be made on Kimbrel, Pom and Kelly?

 

The topic of keeping/trading JBJ comes up because Betts is a keeper and Beni is under team control for 5 more years.

 

Simply saying keep JBJ is inadequate response. It's got to be about the entire team.

 

Not picking on you. I just wonder what you are thinking? ("I want to enjoy this team play would be my guess".)

 

I understand that moves cannot be made in a vacuum, and that they have to be made to give us the best overall team. I also understand that trading Jackie might become a reality if the FO prioritizes keeping someone else.

 

If I were in charge of the team, I can say with little hesitation that the first one to go will be Kimbrel. That is in no way a knock on Kimbrel. It's just my opinion that a team should not spend a boatload on relief pitchers, including closers.

[mvp 78]

Hitting .100 is a bit of a hyperbole, but as the saying goes, a run saved is as good as a run scored. JBJ is good enough defensively that his defense is worth keeping him on the field, even with his streaky bat.

 

It's keeping him on the field, but he's probably not a top 10 CFer and the concerns of not being able to afford to re-sign him are overstated.

[cp176]

I have watched him just like the rest of us for a number of years now and I think that we all appreciate his defense but I don't think that there is any way that he gets resigned if he rejects an appropriate offer from this club. He very well may not be on the team's list of important players to resign at all. He is replaceable. I f he or his agent creates a situation where we have to choose between him or any number of our pitchers, JBJ will be heading somewhere else I 'm afraid based on what he has done to date in his career.

[Spudboy]

That is a possibility, but I certainly hope it doesn't come to fruition.

 

Our outfield defense would take a serious hit.

 

I am a huge JBJ supporter, streaky bat and all. I do not want him traded.

 

This post makes all types of sense.

[moonslav59]

I seriously doubt any GM would overlook his overall offensive struggles since last year.

 

No doubt, but GMs keep calling DD and asking about JBJ, so they must like the net value.

[mvp 78]

No doubt, but GMs keep calling DD and asking about JBJ, so they must like the net value.

 

I'm going to need a source for this.

[moonslav59]

What if you had to decide between Pom vs JBJ? What if Johnson can replace Pom?

 

I think it has to be priorities. What if we can keep both but we have to give up Kimbrel because Hanley vested?

 

Or do we keep EVERYONE including the FA knowing our payroll might hit $260M?

 

Who goes if you are in charge of this team?

 

Decision has to be made on Kimbrel, Pom and Kelly?

 

The topic of keeping/trading JBJ comes up because Betts is a keeper and Beni is under team control for 5 more years.

 

Simply saying keep JBJ seems like an inadequate response. It's got to be about the entire team.

 

Not picking on you. I just wonder what you are thinking? ("I want to enjoy this team play would be my guess".) ("I didn't want us to sign JD......."....I guess you did answer it )...I'm talking to myself now.

 

I don't think JBJ's 2019 contract will be higher than his value to the team. To me, the choice will likely be between Pom and Kimbrel. Who stays- who goes?

[moonslav59]

I'm going to need a source for this.

 

Every winter, reports are published reporting interest in JBJ.

 

Here's a couple links... (The first one speaks of 6 GMs asking about JBJ)

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2016/07/scott_boras_i_had_6_different_gms_calling_me_about_jackie

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/02/boston_red_sox_trade_rumors_ja_4.html

[OH FOY]

I only heard the Giants asking about JBJ. Never heard he was a big ask this Off-Season. They Traded for Mccutchen instead. He's playing RF for them.

Not buying anything with Boras.

Edited April 6, 2018 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

Every winter, reports are published reporting interest in JBJ.

 

Here's a couple links... (The first one speaks of 6 GMs asking about JBJ)

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2016/07/scott_boras_i_had_6_different_gms_calling_me_about_jackie

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/02/boston_red_sox_trade_rumors_ja_4.html

 

Every winter? Sure.

 

I haven't heard of any recent calls since he's stopped hitting altogether since getting to the Ft.

[moonslav59]

Every winter? Sure.

 

I haven't heard of any recent calls since he's stopped hitting altogether since getting to the Ft.

 

I know I've said it before, but do you really think a GM who has liked JBJ for years will no longer want him based on 1 month of poor hitting of which only 6 games are at the ML level?