Farrell

[Slasher9]

wasnt there another thread that stated that the #3 hitter should be your worst hitter?

also, another one that stated that it statistically makes zero difference who bats where in the batting order and that you can literally just pick the names out of a hat?

also, another one that stated that stolen bases are meaningless?

 

btw - Max - i am trying to figure out if you want to keep JF or fire him. i know i reached my limit a couple months ago and am firmly planted in fire JF with no going back. i feel like you have been flip-flopping for a few weeks. where you at on this?

[Bellhorn04]

wasnt there another thread that stated that the #3 hitter should be your worst hitter?

 

No. Kimmi has indicated the studies show the 3 spot is the least important of the top 5 spots, but not the least important of the entire order.

[Bellhorn04]

also, another one that stated that stolen bases are meaningless?

 

No. Stolen bases are a plus, caught stealings are a minus...success % is important.

[mvp 78]

No. Stolen bases are a plus, caught stealings are a minus...success % is important.

 

Correct. I'd rather a guy go 50 for 50 on stolen bases than a guy who goes 65 for 85.

[Slasher9]

No. Stolen bases are a plus, caught stealings are a minus...success % is important.

 

my bad. it's very confusing what stats i am supposed to believe are important and which stats i am supposed to negate.

but yes....gaining 90' without making an out > making an out. but...what about gaining 90' with the possibility of making an out vs staying put with 0 chance of making an out?

 

FTR - i believe the 3 hitter is the MOST important hitter in the lineup. no post on a forum by a person in the history of the internets will change my opinion of that.....

[moonslav59]

Ahem. I believe you are the one who has documented that our top 8 regulars this year are not only worse (except for Vazquez) than last year but somehow are all gravitating toward a mean OPS of about .750. Right now our top 8 in at bats and total bases are Betts, Bogaerts, Beni, Moreland, HanRam, Vazquez, Pedroia, and JBJ. Of those 8, the highest is .791 and the lowest is .722. That's a difference but not an overwhelming one.

 

Bogaerts OPS in April was .731, in May .949, June .763. On this team, not all that shabby for #3 hitter.

 

As for power, we have no power hitters this year. We are dead last in the AL in dingers and 28th in MLB. Ortiz was a power hitter, but nobody on this team is this year.

 

Given the distinct absence of power which no doubt has affected the run-producing middle of our batting order, my guess is that putting some speed in there wasn't all bad. More to the point, given all those guys gathered around that mean, I really don't care about those lineups.

 

Last year HanRam had a great year, now clearly because Ortiz was in the lineup, and drove in 111 runs. Good. Solid. But batting leadoff the entire season Betts drove in 113 and still scored the most runs, 122, on the team. Oh, and they scored 100 more runs than anyone else in the AL.

 

Ahem, Bogey was hot early and should have batted 1 or 2 then.

 

He's never showed much power, and is our worst power hitter out of anyone in consideration for the 3-6 slots, unless you count Pedey.

ISO

.215 Nunez (JF has him leading off now)

.213 Devers (JF rarely bats him higher than 6th)

.188 HRam

.184 Moreland

.174 Betts (had him leading off a lot)

.165 JBJ (loves to bat him 8th or 9th)

.158 Beni

.155 Young (yup, better than Bogey)

 

.128 Bogey (a horrible ISO number for anyone batting 3-6!)

.126 Leon

.114 Vaz

.106 Pedey

.104 Marrero

 

SLG

Bogey ranks 10th at .398 with only Young, Leon and Marrero below him.

 

The only reason Bogey's OPS is half way decent is because of his OBP, especially early in the year.

 

1st half OBP

.383 Pedey

.363 JBJ

.359 Bogey

.357 Beni

.351 Betts

 

5 guys were better or within .002 of Bogey's SLG first half:

.490 JBJ (batted 8/9 almost the whole time)

.490 Betts

.447 Bogey

.446 Beni

.445 Moreland

.445 HRam

(All 5 had better ISO in the first half- most by over 40 points.)

 

 

[mvp 78]

my bad. it's very confusing what stats i am supposed to believe are important and which stats i am supposed to negate.

but yes....gaining 90' without making an out > making an out. but...what about gaining 90' with the possibility of making an out vs staying put with 0 chance of making an out?

 

FTR - i believe the 3 hitter is the MOST important hitter in the lineup. no post on a forum by a person in the history of the internets will change my opinion of that.....

 

Everyone knows that THE THREE HOLE COMES UP WITH 2 OUTS AND BASES EMPTY MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE.

 

Duh.

[cp176]

my bad. it's very confusing what stats i am supposed to believe are important and which stats i am supposed to negate.

but yes....gaining 90' without making an out > making an out. but...what about gaining 90' with the possibility of making an out vs staying put with 0 chance of making an out?

 

FTR - i believe the 3 hitter is the MOST important hitter in the lineup. no post on a forum by a person in the history of the internets will change my opinion of that.....

 

God Bless you my boy. #3 for me as well. On this particular team though, it might not make much difference. They are almost all about the same.

[mvp 78]

The third batter, in the three-hole, is generally the best all-around hitter on the team, often hitting for a high batting average but not necessarily very fast. Part of his job is to reach base for the cleanup hitter, and part of it is to help drive in baserunners himself. Third-place hitters are best known for "keeping the inning alive". However, in recent years, some managers have tended to put their best slugger in this position.

Typically the greatest hitters for a combination of power and OBP on their teams bat third, as is shown by the use of such hitters as Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Chipper Jones, Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Carl Yastrzemski, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen, Miguel Cabrera, Ken Griffey Jr., Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, José Bautista, Edwin Encarnación, Mike Trout, and Hank Aaron in this position in the lineup. Even without the combination of extreme power (Yogi Berra, Al Kaline, George Brett) or high batting average (Ernie Banks, Harmon Killebrew, Johnny Bench, Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson) this batting position contains an inordinate number of hitters who eventually become members of the Baseball Hall of Fame.

[Spudboy]

No. Stolen bases are a plus, caught stealings are a minus...success % is important.

 

It is disruptive runners that are of no value.

 

Supposedly.

Edited September 11, 2017 by Spudboy

[Bellhorn04]

Ahem, Bogey was hot early and should have batted 1 or 2 then.

 

He's never showed much power, and is our worst power hitter out of anyone in consideration for the 3-6 slots, unless you count Pedey.

 

 

It baffles me that you can say 'he's never shown much power' when he had 21 home runs in his age 23 season.

[S5Dewey]

The third batter, in the three-hole, is generally the best all-around hitter on the team, often hitting for a high batting average but not necessarily very fast. Part of his job is to reach base for the cleanup hitter, and part of it is to help drive in baserunners himself. Third-place hitters are best known for "keeping the inning alive". However, in recent years, some managers have tended to put their best slugger in this position.

Typically the greatest hitters for a combination of power and OBP on their teams bat third, as is shown by the use of such hitters as Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Chipper Jones, Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Carl Yastrzemski, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen, Miguel Cabrera, Ken Griffey Jr., Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, José Bautista, Edwin Encarnación, Mike Trout, and Hank Aaron in this position in the lineup. Even without the combination of extreme power (Yogi Berra, Al Kaline, George Brett) or high batting average (Ernie Banks, Harmon Killebrew, Johnny Bench, Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson) this batting position contains an inordinate number of hitters who eventually become members of the Baseball Hall of Fame.

 

Anecdotal evidence. Means nothing.

 

I've become so confused with the conflicting differing statistics plus the conflicting "anecdotal evidence" that I've just given up. People, myself being one of them, are going to believe whatever they choose to believe.

 

I believe that neither approach is completely wrong nor completely right, that there's room for both. Based on all of that I also believe I'll have another beer!

[mvp 78]

Anecdotal evidence. Means nothing.

 

I've become so confused with the conflicting differing statistics plus the conflicting "anecdotal evidence" that I've just given up. People, myself being one of them, are going to believe whatever they choose to believe.

 

I believe that neither approach is completely wrong nor completely right, that there's room for both. Based on all of that I also believe I'll have another beer!

 

I can be convinced either way. I do believe that batting order is overrated, but also believe it's fun to talk about. It's the most basic strategy that you can discuss ad nauseam.

[Maxbialystock]

Ahem, Bogey was hot early and should have batted 1 or 2 then.

 

He's never showed much power, and is our worst power hitter out of anyone in consideration for the 3-6 slots, unless you count Pedey.

ISO

.215 Nunez (JF has him leading off now)

.213 Devers (JF rarely bats him higher than 6th)

.188 HRam

.184 Moreland

.174 Betts (had him leading off a lot)

.165 JBJ (loves to bat him 8th or 9th)

.158 Beni

.155 Young (yup, better than Bogey)

 

.128 Bogey (a horrible ISO number for anyone batting 3-6!)

.126 Leon

.114 Vaz

.106 Pedey

.104 Marrero

 

SLG

Bogey ranks 10th at .398 with only Young, Leon and Marrero below him.

 

The only reason Bogey's OPS is half way decent is because of his OBP, especially early in the year.

 

1st half OBP

.383 Pedey

.363 JBJ

.359 Bogey

.357 Beni

.351 Betts

 

5 guys were better or within .002 of Bogey's SLG first half:

.490 JBJ (batted 8/9 almost the whole time)

.490 Betts

.447 Bogey

.446 Beni

.445 Moreland

.445 HRam

(All 5 had better ISO in the first half- most by over 40 points.)

 

 

 

I am looking right now at the slugging percentages for the top 8 Sox this year in total bases and at bats. Bogaerts is indeed dead last, but his .391 ain't that far below the top, Betts, at .435. Last year Betts slugging percentage was .534 and Ortiz's was .620 and HanRam's was .505.

 

I say again, we don't have any sluggers this year, not when our very best is just .044 better than our worst. I sure can't buy that our run scoring and overall OPS's got worse because of Bogaerts. On the other hand, there was the 16-4 run in August when it sure looked like two guys, Nunez and Devers, were making a difference.

 

We lost Ortiz, simple as that, and evidence for that being the core of our scoring problems is overwhelming. But Bogaerts batting 3d? Heck, Kimmi claims it's like the 5th most important slot behind 1st, 2d, 4th, and 5th--according to a book she read I think.

Edited September 11, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[oldtimer]

I can be convinced either way. I do believe that batting order is overrated, but also believe it's fun to talk about. It's the most basic strategy that you can discuss ad nauseam.

 

It was up to me, I load up the batting order with our best in a row and hope to score the runs there. I believe the player hitting third should be a good contact hitter and one capable of driving the ball. Some statisticians believe otherwise, I think they are totally wrong.

[Kimmi]

Yes, you have questioned Chili, but I think the buck stops with JF.

 

1. Lack of fundamentals.

2. Massive under performance by just about all our returning everyday players.

3. Lack of simple understanding of the rules.

4. Not maximizing the efficiency of the line-up (despite how little it really matters)

 

The pluses:

1. Maximized the effectiveness of our depleted pen.

2. Productivity of rotation despite the injuries to Price & Wright.

 

Overall, he's a great pitching coach who is clueless in other areas of the game.

 

Farrell is the captain of the ship, so if the coaches aren't doing their jobs, I agree that is ultimately on Farrell.

 

I don't believe that Farrell lacks an understanding of the rules. I think he simply had a brain cramp or two during some games. It happens. It doesn't excuse the mishaps, but it happens.

 

As far as the line up construction goes, there is not a manager in baseball that truly optimizes his lineup. This is why I said that Farrell is really no worse (or better) than most of the other managers.

 

I've also said before that I really liked Farrell in the role as pitching coach. That said, I disagree that he is clueless in other areas of the game.

[Kimmi]

With regard to the massive underperformance part, Farrell was also the manager the previous 4 years. How did his management of their hitting get so bad this year?

 

Seriously, though, it's a total enigma why so many guys have numbers down this year. The only things we can point to as fact are the absence of Ortiz and the failure to add a power bat to somewhat compensate for that loss.

 

Ha.

 

It's not the lack of protection from having Papi in the line up, so it really is an enigma.

[Kimmi]

to me it's "Exhibit A" how a HoF hitter can "protect" the lineup. apparently its not just "random"....

 

To me, it's a random enigma.

[moonslav59]

It baffles me that you can say 'he's never shown much power' when he had 21 home runs in his age 23 season.

 

I stand by my statement. He's never shown much power.

 

His 2016 .446 SLG and .152 ISO do not show power at all, let alone "much" power.

 

It took JF 3 months to see what was going on....and not just with Bogey either.

[Kimmi]

Yes, on July 20th, JF dropped the "power hitting", slumping Bogey to 6th. (He should never have been batting 3rfd to begin with- second or even 1st was best.)

 

He took longer to drop Moreland from the 4/5 slot.

 

He put Holt leading off 5 times and second (the spoit to put your best hitter) 3 times. At what point was Holt ever hitting well?

 

I'm not putting all the blame on JF for 9 of 10 guys declining, but if he is given credit when players do well, he should take some of the blame when just about everyone declines, except the guy who had no where to decline to (Vaz).

 

JF is an excellent pitching coach, and it shows when he manages. I have very little criticism for the way he has handled our staff.

 

I don't feel he has a clue about hitting, fielding and base running nor the rules of the game. It shows.

 

Come on Moon, give the man a little credit. You may not like what you see, and I can understand that, but he has a clue. Guaranteed.

[moonslav59]

I am looking right now at the slugging percentages for the top 8 Sox this year in total bases and at bats. Bogaerts is indeed dead last, but his .391 ain't that far below the top, Betts, at .435. Last year Betts slugging percentage was .534 and Ortiz's was .620 and HanRam's was .505.

 

I say again, we don't have any sluggers this year, not when our very best is just .044 better than our worst. I sure can't buy that our run scoring and overall OPS's got worse because of Bogaerts. On the other hand, there was the 16-4 run in August when it sure looked like two guys, Nunez and Devers, were making a difference.

 

We lost Ortiz, simple as that, and evidence for that being the core of our scoring problems is overwhelming. But Bogaerts batting 3d? Heck, Kimmi claims it's like the 5th most important slot behind 1st, 2d, 4th, and 5th--according to a book she read I think.

 

If you look back to my posts in April and May, my main reason for moving Bogey from 3 to 1 or 2 was because of his high OBP. The low SLG was secondary, but still very important.

 

Once he started slumping (injured) , 1-2-3-4-5 and maybe even 6 should have been off limits.

 

I get that not many Sox players have shown a lot of power, but that's no excuse to put your high OBP-lowest SLG guy up 3rd instead of 1 or 2 for the first 3 months of the year..

[moonslav59]

Come on Moon, give the man a little credit. You may not like what you see, and I can understand that, but he has a clue. Guaranteed.

 

Okay, he has one and only one clue, but he's that one clue from being totally clueless.

[Kimmi]

wasnt there another thread that stated that the #3 hitter should be your worst hitter?

also, another one that stated that it statistically makes zero difference who bats where in the batting order and that you can literally just pick the names out of a hat?

also, another one that stated that stolen bases are meaningless?

btw - Max - i am trying to figure out if you want to keep JF or fire him. i know i reached my limit a couple months ago and am firmly planted in fire JF with no going back. i feel like you have been flip-flopping for a few weeks. where you at on this?

 

No one has ever said any of those things. Please at least quote me correctly if you're going to be snarky.

[Kimmi]

The third batter, in the three-hole, is generally the best all-around hitter on the team, often hitting for a high batting average but not necessarily very fast. Part of his job is to reach base for the cleanup hitter, and part of it is to help drive in baserunners himself. Third-place hitters are best known for "keeping the inning alive". However, in recent years, some managers have tended to put their best slugger in this position.

Typically the greatest hitters for a combination of power and OBP on their teams bat third, as is shown by the use of such hitters as Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Chipper Jones, Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Carl Yastrzemski, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen, Miguel Cabrera, Ken Griffey Jr., Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, José Bautista, Edwin Encarnación, Mike Trout, and Hank Aaron in this position in the lineup. Even without the combination of extreme power (Yogi Berra, Al Kaline, George Brett) or high batting average (Ernie Banks, Harmon Killebrew, Johnny Bench, Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson) this batting position contains an inordinate number of hitters who eventually become members of the Baseball Hall of Fame.

 

FTR, this describes what has been done historically. This does not describe what should be done.

[Kimmi]

Everyone knows that THE THREE HOLE COMES UP WITH 2 OUTS AND BASES EMPTY MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE.

 

Duh.

 

At least you quoted me correctly with your snarkiness. I appreciate that.

[Bellhorn04]

I stand by my statement. He's never shown much power.

His 2016 .446 SLG and .152 ISO do not show power at all, let alone "much" power.

 

First of all, I will admit that I don't know very much about ISO yet.

 

But I do know about SLG.

 

Bogaerts' 2016 SLG of .446 was well above the MLB average, and it was very close to the MLB average #3 and #4 hitter.

 

The 2016 MLB average SLG for a #4 hitter was .466.

 

Here is how Bogaerts 2016 numbers compare to the MLB average #4:

 

Bogaerts 294/356/446 802

Average 260/333/466 799

 

Maybe your standards are just too high.

[Kimmi]

my bad. it's very confusing what stats i am supposed to believe are important and which stats i am supposed to negate.

but yes....gaining 90' without making an out > making an out. but...what about gaining 90' with the possibility of making an out vs staying put with 0 chance of making an out?

 

FTR - i believe the 3 hitter is the MOST important hitter in the lineup. no post on a forum by a person in the history of the internets will change my opinion of that.....

 

The break even point for stolen bases is typically from a 68% to a 75% success rate. To give you an example of how stolen bases are overrated, in 1982, when Henderson stole 130 bases, which added 22.2 extra runs to his team, he was also caught stealing 42 times, which cost his team 20.6 runs. For all of that running he did, he netted his team a whopping 1.6 runs for the season. You can take those stats to the bank.

[moonslav59]

First of all, I will admit that I don't know very much about ISO yet.

 

But I do know about SLG.

 

Bogaerts' 2016 SLG of .446 was well above the MLB average, and it was very close to the MLB average #3 and #4 hitter.

 

The 2016 MLB average SLG for a #4 hitter was .466.

 

Here is how Bogaerts 2016 numbers compare to the MLB average #4:

 

Bogaerts 294/356/446 802

Average 260/333/466 799

 

Maybe your standards are just too high.

 

By any standard, we had better choices than Bogey as our 3-5 hitters and not many better choices than Bogey as our 1-2 hitter.

[Bellhorn04]

By any standard, we had better choices than Bogey as our 3-5 hitters and not many better choices than Bogey as our 1-2 hitter.

 

Maybe. But that's a long way from saying he didn't show any power last year.

[moonslav59]

Maybe. But that's a long way from saying he didn't show any power last year.

 

I said "much" power. Maybe my later statement about 2016 was a bit of hyperbole. I suppose 21 HRs sandwiched around 7 and 8 could be viewed as some power, but a .152 ISO is not someone you think of as "power hitter" or someone suited for the 3-5 slots on a competitive team.

 

There's no doubt in my mind he was better suited for the 1-2 slot than the 3 slot- just as Betts is better suited for the 2-5 slots than #1.

 

At least JF's choices at 4 and 5 (HRam and Moreland) were much more difficult, in that we really had nobody much better, except MAYBE JBJ, when he was hot or Devers/Nunez now.