2017 Prospect Mega Thread

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I think Velazquez has moved in front of Owens in terms of SP pitching depth. Thus, Owens would be dumped from the 40-man before Velazquez. But Owens might be a higher priority than guys like Ysla and Martin.

[moonslav59]

I think Velazquez has moved in front of Owens in terms of SP pitching depth. Thus, Owens would be dumped from the 40-man before Velazquez. But Owens might be a higher priority than guys like Ysla and Martin.

 

Velazquez was already ahead of Owens.

[Spudboy]

Fister is not on the 40 man????

[moonslav59]

Fister is not on the 40 man????

 

He is on the 40 man.

 

My list was of possible players who could be traded or DFA'd (removed from the 40 man roster) if we had to add someone to the 40 man roster, like with a trade or wanting to add Devers before September.

 

[OH FOY]

Velazquez pitched another gem this afternoon, won 1-0. 7 innings 4 hits, and only 1 BB. ERA down to 1.48. He should be given a shot again.

[Spudboy]

Velazquez pitched another gem this afternoon, won 1-0. 7 innings 4 hits, and only 1 BB. ERA down to 1.48. He should be given a shot again.

 

He does find a way to do that to AAA batters.

 

I like the guy and agree that he should and probably will have another try with the Sox this season.

 

I am not so sure that he has enough "stuff" to face a steady diet of MLB batters as a starter.

[moonslav59]

I'll take ERod over Fister and Velazquez.

 

I hope we never need to try Velazquez again.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Great start from Ball today: 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K. Whenever Ball has performed really well, he follows it up with a clunker. Let's hope he can string two outstanding starts together this time.

 

Sandoval: 0 for 4 in AAA today -- his numbers in AAA aren't any good. If the guy can't hit in AAA, there is no reason to think he will hit in the major leagues. He looks like toast.

[a700hitter]

Great start from Ball today: 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K. Whenever Ball has performed really well, he follows it up with a clunker. Let's hope he can string two outstanding starts together this time.

 

Sandoval: 0 for 4 in AAA today -- his numbers in AAA aren't any good. If the guy can't hit in AAA, there is no reason to think he will hit in the major leagues. He looks like toast.

It doesn't matter what Pablo hits. He can't field his position.

[moonslav59]

It doesn't matter what Pablo hits. He can't field his position.

 

And since HRam can't play 1B, there's not even a slot for Pablo to DH, even if he could hit.

 

Cut Pablo loose.

 

Just rip the Band Aid off.

 

Lin & Marrero can carry us to the trade deadline... maybe even beyond.

[a700hitter]

And since HRam can't play 1B, there's not even a slot for Pablo to DH, even if he could hit.

 

Cut Pablo loose.

 

Just rip the Band Aid off.

 

Lin & Marrero can carry us to the trade deadline... maybe even beyond.

Cutting him loose is almost as inevitable as releasing Allen Craig.

[moonslav59]

Great start from Ball today: 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K. Whenever Ball has performed really well, he follows it up with a clunker. Let's hope he can string two outstanding starts together this time.

 

Quick... trade 'em before his stock falls...

 

LOL

[Spudboy]

Great start from Ball today: 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K. Whenever Ball has performed really well, he follows it up with a clunker. Let's hope he can string two outstanding starts together this time.

 

Sandoval: 0 for 4 in AAA today -- his numbers in AAA aren't any good. If the guy can't hit in AAA, there is no reason to think he will hit in the major leagues. He looks like he likes toast.

 

Fixed that for you Buddy.

[OH FOY]

No walks, fantastic. He has to learn to pitch to contact. Cut the walks down. Not overpowering, has to command the plate. 23 now, only in Double AA, his time is running out. He repeated A+ ball, not a good sign. Always more hits than innings pitched every year.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox missed big time on this pick. Everything I read about him at the time of the draft had him with a mid 90s fastball and instead he shows up and is this pusballing lefty without command. To think he was picked well before Judge in the same year...

[a700hitter]

The sox missed big time on this pick. Everything I read about him at the time of the draft had him with a mid 90s fastball and instead he shows up and is this pusballing lefty without command. To think he was picked well before Judge in the same year...

It was a botched pick. There is no arguing that, which is why i don't give a rats ass about how high we draft. Unless you get the top guy in the country, they are all shots in the dark.

[d-money]

Any idea what his velocity looked like last night? I hope this guy's not another Henry Owens who doesn't have any type of velocity on his pitches. So is he another Owens? Edited July 8, 2017 by d-money

[Jack Flap]

Some updated midseason prospect rankings:

 

 

Baseball Prospectus (top 50)

(1 Moncada)

5 Devers

(25 Kopech)

43 Groome

 

Baseball America (top 100)

(1 Moncada)

6 Devers

(20 Kopech)

(64 Espinoza)

87 Groome

96 Chavis

[Hugh2]

It was a botched pick. There is no arguing that, which is why i don't give a rats ass about how high we draft. Unless you get the top guy in the country, they are all shots in the dark.

 

Compare the top 10 from the last 20 drafts to the 20th-30th pick. There is a TREMENDOUS difference. Big difference between the first round and the rest of the draft too.

[a700hitter]

Compare the top 10 from the last 20 drafts to the 20th-30th pick. There is a TREMENDOUS difference. Big difference between the first round and the rest of the draft too.

And look at our history of first round picks-- lots of misses.

[Hugh2]

We picked in the top 10 twice within three years and walked away with Andrew Benintendi, I can live with that. You look at any team that had multiple picks within a few years in the top ten and they did no better. The Orioles had to take a bust Matt Hobgood to get lucky with Manny Machado.

 

Yes, stars exist in the first round, especially the top ten and it's very lopsided compared to the rest of the draft but it's still about a 25% chance you're drafting an all star. Realistically if your first round pick becomes an everyday major leaguer in any capacity you did a great job drafting.

 

 

EDIT: Realistically it's probably closer to 10% of top ten picks become all stars where's 25-33% become productive everyday players. I saw a study on it once but I'm too lazy to look it up right now.

Edited July 8, 2017 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Hugh2]

And look at our history of first round picks-- lots of misses.

 

In the top 10? we're more like one for two....that's pretty good, see my last post.

[moonslav59]

Our highest picks (top 40 or first round/supplemental round) in the Henry era:

 

2011 to 2017

7 Andrew Benintendi '15

7 Trey Ball '13

12 Jay Groome '16

19 Matt Barnes '11

24 Tanner Houck '17

24 Deven Marrero '12

26 Michael Chavis '14

26 Blake Swihart '11

31 Brian Johnson '12

33 Michael Kopech '14

36 Henry Owens '11

37 Pat Light '12

40 Jackie Bradley '11

 

2003 to 2009

17 David Murphy '03

20 Kolbrin Vitek '10

23 Jacoby Ellsbury '05

26 Craig Hansen '05

27 Jason Place '06

28 Reymond Fuentes '09

36 Bryce Brentz '10

30 A Ranaudo '10

30 Casey Kelly '08

32 Matt Murton '03

40 Kris Johnson '06

42 Clay Buchholz '05

45 Jed Lowrie '05

44 Caleb Clay '06

47 Michael Bowden '05

 

[OH FOY]

Groome goes tonight for Greenville, moved him up. Good. Watching Futures Game the kid for the Rays, Honeywell looks good. Another Pitcher they develop. Edited July 10, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Hugh2]

Groome goes tonight for Greenville, moved him up. Good. Watching Futures Game the kid for the Rays, Honeywell looks good. Another Pitcher they develop.

 

Another young guy to keep an eye on is Bryan Mata, I'm also really liking this young kid Scherff we just drafted too. Perhaps one of these young guns can turn recent trends of developing pitchers around in this system.

[mvp 78]

We picked in the top 10 twice within three years and walked away with Andrew Benintendi, I can live with that. You look at any team that had multiple picks within a few years in the top ten and they did no better. The Orioles had to take a bust Matt Hobgood to get lucky with Manny Machado.

 

Yes, stars exist in the first round, especially the top ten and it's very lopsided compared to the rest of the draft but it's still about a 25% chance you're drafting an all star. Realistically if your first round pick becomes an everyday major leaguer in any capacity you did a great job drafting.

 

 

EDIT: Realistically it's probably closer to 10% of top ten picks become all stars where's 25-33% become productive everyday players. I saw a study on it once but I'm too lazy to look it up right now.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

 

60% bust rate for top 5 picks

65% bust rate for picks 6 - 10

70% bust rate for picks 11 - 15

[Hugh2]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

 

60% bust rate for top 5 picks

65% bust rate for picks 6 - 10

70% bust rate for picks 11 - 15

 

Thanks MVP!

[Hugh2]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

 

60% bust rate for top 5 picks

65% bust rate for picks 6 - 10

70% bust rate for picks 11 - 15

 

I think a few things worth mentioning is as slim as a 30-40% hit rate seems, the drop off is even more staggering once you get past the first round.

 

There are a ton of busts in the top of the draft and the vast majority of MLB talent is at the top of the draft are both true statements.

[a700hitter]

And that's why it is not worth stinking and coming in last place.

[Hugh2]

Not it's not, but getting a player who is more than 2X likely to be a good player and 3X more likely to be an elite player is a nice consolation prize.

 

The drop off from the first round to the rest of the draft is even more staggering. If you get a good everyday player in the first round, and two guys who contribute from the bench and in the pen later in the draft you had a decent draft.