2017 Rotation Discussion

[Kimmi]

To be fair, I don't really remember anyone being very excited about the Moreland signing. That signing was the definition of a "meh" move.

 

Excited? No. But I thought that Moreland was a good fit. I was more than 'meh' about it.

[Kimmi]

Goodness knows I am no DD fan, but I honestly thought we had a good lineup for this year. HanRam really isn't replacing Ortiz, Moreland is because he is new to the lineup.

 

So how make up that deficit? Benintendi in LF helps. So, I thought, would be the case with Pablo at 3B, but he has been worse than our group last year and on the DL, which brought in a multitude of sins. I'm guessing that last year overall our thirdbasemen were ranked in the bottom third, but this year they are probably dead last. JBJ is way down from last year. Pedroia is down.

 

And where I miscalculated is that Ortiz was both a great rbi guy and great rbi guy when you really need one.

 

 

Goodness knows I am far from a Dombrowski fan, yet here I am, forced to defend him.

 

He did a terrific job in building this year's team. That was the overall consensus going into the season. 'Don't worry about the cliff in 2020', they told me. 'Enjoy this year's team! It's awesome! Dombrowski is the man!' How quickly things change.

 

This is still a good team with a good offense. The runs will come.

[a700hitter]

The offense was not meant to be as good as it was last year. That's where the improvement in pitching comes in. (I keep hearing someone say, 'It's the pitching, stupid!')

 

Also, we led the league by over 100 runs last year. Over 100! That's a lot. Even with the loss of Papi, the offense should be very good.

 

I could see your point about not addressing the loss of Papi if our offense was merely 10 or 20 runs better than the next. And if Dombrowski did not improve the starting pitching significantly. But neither of those are the case.

We also had an MVP season from Betts, a big comeback season from Hanley (his first full season since 2012), a .310 season from Leon, a .999 OPS season from Young against lefties. Pedroia had his best season in 5 years. There was plenty of reason to think that the loss of Ortiz would be magnified by other regressions including Bradley's 2016 not being a breakout year where hhis career did not turn a corner but rather just a peak around the corner.

[Nick]

Not having Price has really hurt. Porcello is way off from last year. I hate to think where we would be without Sale.

[SoxHop]

After his hot streak would end, he would eventually get benched. It was the same script each year.

 

Exactly.

 

That signing really didn't sit well with me at all. I guess in general I should just be pissed as Hanley for being a total wuss......

 

But the Moreland signing to me was like putting 100 dollar tires on a Ferrari.........

[Jasonbay44]

Excited? No. But I thought that Moreland was a good fit. I was more than 'meh' about it.

 

There is nothing really exciting about him. He's an average player whose had one good season and has been mainly mediocre. His biggest asset was supposed to be his "elite" fielding, which hasn't been very elite thus far. I didn't like the signing at the time, still don't, and probably never will. I would've rather kept Shaw as the every day 1B than sign Moreland.

[moonslav59]

We had HanRam while we had Ortiz, so he is not a replacement. The replacement is Moreland and extra ab's for AB. That is not a good replacement imo.

 

Agreed, but the expected improved pitching staff and defense was supposed to help try and even things out.

 

I think people really underestimated what losing Ortiz from the lineup would mean.

Maybe, but certainly the addition of Sale has made a big impact.

 

Also, Betts had an MVP quality season last year. Are we supposed to expect that every season from him?

Maybe not, but his age curve projects improvement with maybe a few blips here and there.

 

Were we to expect Leon to hit .310 again?

No, biut we also replaced Hanigan and Holaday's putrid offense with more of Vaz and a .650 to .700 Leon.

 

Did we expect Young to put up a .999 OPS against LHP again this year?

Close. He's done it 3 years in a row.

 

Even if all these things happened again, where is the excess capacity to make up for Ortiz? Moreland and more AB abs? I'm not buying that.

 

A Moreland-Young DH platoon would never replace Papi, but it wasn't unrealistic to expect an OPS of about .800 from the two straight platooned. Our LF OPS was bad last year, so a full season from Beni could have come close to making up the 200 point loss at DH. These are just numbers, I know. Even if we got the same OPS from LF/DH combined as 2016, we'd still miss Papi dearly, but if we came close, and with the Sale/Thornburg/Smith impact, I still maintain the plan for 2017 was strong.

 

I still think once we get Price back, we'll win at a rate similar, if not better, than last year. (I also expect our offense to improve to top 5 in runs scored by year's end. That's looking harder and harder with each game gone by, but I'm still hopeful.

[a700hitter]

I still think once we get Price back, we'll win at a rate similar, if not better, than last year. (I also expect our offense to improve to top 5 in runs scored by year's end. That's looking harder and harder with each game gone by, but I'm still hopeful.

I get that the starting pitching has been improved. I have never said otherwise. IMO, the team is unbalanced and DD didn't adequately address the needs of the offense because imo he didn't want a dedicated DH. If he traded our top prospect to get Sale, because he viewed Sale as the final piece of the puzzle, he was wrong. There was huge missing piece on the offense. If you are going to go for it all now, you need to do a better job to fill the holes.

[mvp 78]

I get that the starting pitching has been improved. I have never said otherwise. IMO, the team is unbalanced and DD didn't adequately address the needs of the offense because imo he didn't want a dedicated DH. If he traded our top prospect to get Sale, because he viewed Sale as the final piece of the puzzle, he was wrong. There was huge missing piece on the offense. If you are going to go for it all now, you need to do a better job to fill the holes.

 

Hanley is the dedicated DH.

[a700hitter]

Hanley is the dedicated DH.

That is because of his shoulder issues. It wasn't the intent going into the season. And he had better be able to play 1B soon, because Moreland has a history of slumping and getting benched. SoxHop confirmed that has been the script when he was in Texas.

[Bellhorn04]

 

Goodness knows I am far from a Dombrowski fan, yet here I am, forced to defend him.

 

Your consistency is commendable, Kimmi. I mean that.

[mvp 78]

That is because of his shoulder issues. It wasn't the intent going into the season. And he had better be able to play 1B soon, because Moreland has a history of slumping and getting benched. SoxHop confirmed that has been the script when he was in Texas.

 

He was never benched last year. He was given a week off when he was having calf injuries though.

[a700hitter]

He was never benched last year. He was given a week off when he was having calf injuries though.

Take it up with SoxHop.

 

Come June each year he is not an every day player. Don't ever pick him up for your fantasy teams. he doesn't get regular ABs

Edited May 16, 2017 by a700hitter

[mvp 78]

Take it up with SoxHop.

 

You're using him as a source in your argument not me.

[a700hitter]

You're using him as a source in your argument not me.

Check the game logs. Come June each year he is not an every day player. Don't ever pick him up for your fantasy teams. he doesn't get regular ABs

[mvp 78]

He sat out 2 games last June. 4 other times he came in as a replacement.

 

That's not a benching.

[a700hitter]

He sat out 2 games last June.

I meant after June, but you are right that he has had a lot of PA in the last 2 seasons. He has been an everyday player through June and then due to a fall off in his performance he starts to sit periodically. Check his career splits. There is a noticeable fall off in the second half and his career numbers in July are very bad.

 

Edit: If we are going to roll him out there every game for the rest of the season, there will be a lot more crying about lack of run production.

[mvp 78]

I meant after June, but you are right that he has had a lot of PA in the last 2 seasons. He has been an everyday player through June and then due to a fall off in his performance he starts to sit periodically. Check his career splits. There is a noticeable fall off in the second half and his career numbers in July are very bad.

 

Edit: If we are going to roll him out there every game for the rest of the season, there will be a lot more crying about lack of run production.

 

Honestly, the lack of run production isn't only due to one thing. You also have to credit Xander turning into a singles hitter, Pedroia taking a step back, 3b being a trainwreck and JBJ hitting like a pumpkin too. Even if they had signed Holliday instead of Moreland, I'm not sure that the offense or W/L record would be any better.

[a700hitter]

Honestly, the lack of run production isn't only due to one thing. You also have to credit Xander turning into a singles hitter, Pedroia taking a step back, 3b being a trainwreck and JBJ hitting like a pumpkin too. Even if they had signed Holliday instead of Moreland, I'm not sure that the offense or W/L record would be any better.

We have all heard the saying that hitting is contagious. Statheads probably have studies disproving it, but imo there is a cascading effect of adding or subtracting a big bat to a lineup. A big hitter in our lineup would make pitchers work harder and approach the rest of the lineup differently. A pitcher has only so many high caliber bullets to deliver. A big hitter would waste a lot of those on a pitches.

[a700hitter]

Honestly, the lack of run production isn't only due to one thing. You also have to credit Xander turning into a singles hitter, Pedroia taking a step back, 3b being a trainwreck and JBJ hitting like a pumpkin too. Even if they had signed Holliday instead of Moreland, I'm not sure that the offense or W/L record would be any better.

And I agree that there have been other problems. We had a season last year where the offense hit on almost all cylinders. If Ortiz had stayed, there was likely to be some regression, but his leaving has really exacerbated the downturn. It is DD's job to anticipate this. I did.

[Bellhorn04]

And I agree that there have been other problems. We had a season last year where the offense hit on almost all cylinders. If Ortiz had stayed, there was likely to be some regression, but his leaving has really exacerbated the downturn. It is DD's job to anticipate this. I did.

 

Yeah, but you failed to come up with the other $60 million plus tax we needed to sign Encarnacion.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, but you failed to come up with the other $60 million plus tax we needed to sign Encarnacion.

He didn't ask me.

[moonslav59]

I get that the starting pitching has been improved. I have never said otherwise. IMO, the team is unbalanced and DD didn't adequately address the needs of the offense because imo he didn't want a dedicated DH. If he traded our top prospect to get Sale, because he viewed Sale as the final piece of the puzzle, he was wrong. There was huge missing piece on the offense. If you are going to go for it all now, you need to do a better job to fill the holes.

 

I get your position, and of course we all would have loved to replace Papi "in kind". That task, however, was near impossible.

 

Certainly, Moreland does not even come close. A full year from Beni might make up for a little of the offense lost, but surely a loss was expected to some degree.

 

I guess the argument is really about to what degree, and to what degree did picking up Sale and Thornburg along with Smith's expected return "on paper" put a dent into the big offensive loss?

 

I'm not saying you were or are wrong.

 

I'm just saying, that I felt "on paper" we should have been able to break even. So far, it looks like I (and others) was wrong, but I'm holding off judgment until Price returns.

 

Compare what Price, Porcello and Wright gave us the first half last year, and one could blame this mediocre start solely on that alone-- not Papi.

[moonslav59]

That is because of his shoulder issues. It wasn't the intent going into the season. And he had better be able to play 1B soon, because Moreland has a history of slumping and getting benched. SoxHop confirmed that has been the script when he was in Texas.

 

Yes, and this has been another loss that kind of flies under the radar.

 

Young and Moreland were supposed to platoon. So far, both have hit "the wrong hand" better than the "right hand", so it has largely gone unnoticed, however, I seriously doubt the reverse splits continue all year. Morealnd will slump, at least vs LHPs, and Young will likely come down to earth vs righties.

[a700hitter]

I get your position, and of course we all would have loved to replace Papi "in kind". That task, however, was near impossible.

 

Certainly, Moreland does not even come close. A full year from Beni might make up for a little of the offense lost, but surely a loss was expected to some degree.

 

I guess the argument is really about to what degree, and to what degree did picking up Sale and Thornburg along with Smith's expected return "on paper" put a dent into the big offensive loss?

 

I'm not saying you were or are wrong.

 

I'm just saying, that I felt "on paper" we should have been able to break even. So far, it looks like I (and others) was wrong, but I'm holding off judgment until Price returns.

 

Compare what Price, Porcello and Wright gave us the first half last year, and one could blame this mediocre start solely on that alone-- not Papi.

An improvement in pitching definitely addressed the issue in part, maybe more maybe less, but what was done to address the remaining deficit was inadequate imo.

[Kimmi]

We also had an MVP season from Betts, a big comeback season from Hanley (his first full season since 2012), a .310 season from Leon, a .999 OPS season from Young against lefties. Pedroia had his best season in 5 years. There was plenty of reason to think that the loss of Ortiz would be magnified by other regressions including Bradley's 2016 not being a breakout year where hhis career did not turn a corner but rather just a peak around the corner.

 

I would expect Betts to be Betts, and improvements from 3B, LF and possibly Bogaerts. Some regression from Leon, Pedrioa, and JBJ was probable. But again, we outscored the next closest AL team by over 100 runs, so even if our offense was expected to be 100 runs worse, it would still be one of the tops in the league.

 

I have no problem with the starting team that Dombrowski assembled for this year.

[Kimmi]

There is nothing really exciting about him. He's an average player whose had one good season and has been mainly mediocre. His biggest asset was supposed to be his "elite" fielding, which hasn't been very elite thus far. I didn't like the signing at the time, still don't, and probably never will. I would've rather kept Shaw as the every day 1B than sign Moreland.

 

I don't know that I'd rather have kept Shaw because he was pretty awful after the first two months of the season last year.

 

I think part of the problem with Moreland is that he was not supposed to be our everyday 1B. Hanley was supposed to get the bulk of the playing time at 1B. Hanley's injury has not allowed Farrell to use his players the way they were intended to be used.

[Kimmi]

Your consistency is commendable, Kimmi. I mean that.

 

Thank you Bell.

[Nick]

Pomeranz says he's fine now. Thanks for wasting our bullpen after giving us 3 innings.

 

With each outing, he's beginning to behave more and more like my third wife, totally high maintenance. If he has a good year, lets trade him and be done with it.

Edited May 17, 2017 by Nick

[a700hitter]

I would expect Betts to be Betts, and improvements from 3B, LF and possibly Bogaerts. Some regression from Leon, Pedrioa, and JBJ was probable. But again, we outscored the next closest AL team by over 100 runs, so even if our offense was expected to be 100 runs worse, it would still be one of the tops in the league.

 

I have no problem with the starting team that Dombrowski assembled for this year.

Replacing Ortiz (79 runs & 127 RBI) with Morleand (49 Runs & 60 RBI) is a difference of 100 runs. Add in some regression from a few of the other players. You missed Hanley on your mentions of players likely to regress. 2016 was his first full season in 5 years. Add to all this the cascading effect of losing Ortiz. It was easy to see us falling off by more than 100 runs.