2017 Rotation

[moonslav59]

Back to the thread title, my predictions

 

Rotation-Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright

 

Bullpen: Kimbrel, Kelly, Thornburg, Pomeranz, Ross, Abad, Hembree

 

AAA Rotation depth: Elias, Owens, Johnson

 

AAA Bullpen depth: Barnes, Ramirez, Ysla, Scott, Martin, Workman.

 

Thoughts? Those of you looking to add arms, where? These are just the options already on the 40-man roster. .

 

Looks great to me, but I think they will start Pom ahead of Wright (assuming ERod is healthy).

 

I also like Barnes a lot better than Abad, but I can see the value in keeping the pitchers without options on the 25 man roster. Personally, I'd trade Abad and save the $2M. If nobody wants him, I'd cut him loose. $2M might not seem like a lot, but we may be walking a tightrope with the luxury tax limit this season.

[a700hitter]

Leon + Vazquez - Moses+Ryan or even Tillman + Nixon

 

Hope not but you never know. I don't see an equal to Fisk+Montgomery here. I really hope one of our guys hits a little. Key word is a little. My money is still on Leon.

Monty never wore a batting helmet. He was a good backup with a decent stick. Gerry Moses, the organization built him up as a big prospect.

[moonslav59]

Those of you looking to add arms, where? These are just the options already on the 40-man roster.

 

I don't see us having the financial or available prospect resources to acquire a solid pen arm right now, but certainly there is a weakness or mediocrity at our 6-7-8-9-10 pen slots. Granted, most teams do not view these slots as strengths, so our "nedd" is not urgent at this moment.

 

Here's what worries me, invariably a team needs one of two of these lower level pen guys to step up a notch or two into higher leverage situations, and there are just too many question marks about our 1 to 5 guys to hope this wont happen more than we wish. Kimbrel is on a 2-3 year decline. Thornburg and C Smith both have just one year of solid pen work in their resume, and CS is coming off a serious injury that may need extensive rehab time. Kelly looked great in a tiny sample size to end the 2016 season, and he's our 2 or 3 guy right now? YIKES! Ross has been steady and solid, but for some reason his innings and leverage innings were reduced from 2015 to 2016. (What's with that?) Pom or Wright in the pen? May not even happen, if ERod's injury necessitates a rehab stint in AAA to start the season.

 

Barnes, Hembree and Scott all showed promise or glimpses of improvement, but needed one of these guys to become our number 3 or 4 could be an issue.

 

I'm not screaming "The sky is falling" here. I see the reasoning behind not acquiring another (25 man roster) pen arm right now. We do still have one slot open on the 40 man (2 once we DFA or trade out of options Brentz), so I can see us adding a couple decent veteran pitchers on minor league deals. This may help us avoid or prolong any trade for a pen piece this summer.

[mvp 78]

E-rod to start in AAA and move Pom to Rotation.

Barnes replaces Pom in pen.

rotation: Porcello - Sale - Pom - Wright - Price

 

Yup, this has what Farrell has hinted at all offseason.

[moonslav59]

Remember when Duane Josephson smacked 10 Hrs in about 300 ABs?

 

Bob Montgomery's improbable .915 OPS in 1973 with 7 HRs and 15 XBHs in just 128 ABs?

 

How about Rich Gedman's steep rise and steeper fall?

 

Other recent high hope guys:

 

Lavarnway

Kottaras

[a700hitter]

Remember when Duane Josephson smacked 10 Hrs in about 300 ABs?

 

Bob Montgomery's improbable .915 OPS in 1973 with 7 HRs and 15 XBHs in just 128 ABs?

 

How about Rich Gedman's steep rise and steeper fall?

 

Other recent high hope guys:

 

Lavarnway

Kottaras

I think Duane Josephson's career was cut short by a heart issue IIRC. Also, I think we got him in the Gary Peters deal. I had big hopes for him adding big offense.

[Kimmi]

Assuming no injuries, the only way Swihart makes the opening day roster is if we trade Leon or Vaz (doubtful). Both are out of option.

 

During the season, we may end up breaking away from the plan of keeping him as a catcher, if we need a LF'er or DH.

 

I agree 100%. At this point, we really don't know what we have in any of the 3 catchers. Unless we are blown away by an offer for any of them, I think it makes the most sense to keep all 3 at least until we get a better sense of how things will play out.

 

If Swihart wins the starting job based on spring training results, meaning we lose either Leon or Vazquez, that would be really, really stupid.

 

I know that need might dictate otherwise, but I really hope that the Sox are committed to Swihart as a catcher for the entire season.

[Kimmi]

It would be nice if we could get to July before needing to make an adjustment.

 

Again, the importance of depth. I read an article about how often the difference in teams making the playoffs versus not making the playoffs is not because of players like Trout, but it's because of the quality of the players who replace guys like Trout when there's an injury. Trout might be an extreme case, but you get the point.

[moonslav59]

I think Duane Josephson's career was cut short by a heart issue IIRC. Also, I think we got him in the Gary Peters deal. I had big hopes for him adding big offense.

 

B-R says we got him and Danny Murphy for Tony Muser and Vincente Romo.

[a700hitter]

B-R says we got him and Danny Murphy for Tony Muser and Vincente Romo.

Muser was a slick fielder. I think we got Romo with Siebert in the Hawk Harrelson deal.

[moonslav59]

I agree 100%. At this point, we really don't know what we have in any of the 3 catchers. Unless we are blown away by an offer for any of them, I think it makes the most sense to keep all 3 at least until we get a better sense of how things will play out.

 

If Swihart wins the starting job based on spring training results, meaning we lose either Leon or Vazquez, that would be really, really stupid.

 

I know that need might dictate otherwise, but I really hope that the Sox are committed to Swihart as a catcher for the entire season.

 

If Swi has a 1.200 OPS in ST'ing, it might be hard to justify him starting at AAA, but I doubt we get a great return by waiting to trade Vaz or Leon in early April.

 

I think no matter what happens, if all 3 catchers are healthy, Swi starts in AAA, even if he hits 1200 and Vaz and Leon combined don't hit 1000.

[moonslav59]

Again, the importance of depth. I read an article about how often the difference in teams making the playoffs versus not making the playoffs is not because of players like Trout, but it's because of the quality of the players who replace guys like Trout when there's an injury. Trout might be an extreme case, but you get the point.

 

I guess I just don't see value in Abad, especially with his $2M contract squeezing our flex space.

[moonslav59]

Muser was a slick fielder. I think we got Romo with Siebert in the Hawk Harrelson deal.

 

Yes, indeed!

[Kimmi]

Back to the thread title, my predictions

 

Rotation-Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright

 

Bullpen: Kimbrel, Kelly, Thornburg, Pomeranz, Ross, Abad, Hembree

 

AAA Rotation depth: Elias, Owens, Johnson

 

AAA Bullpen depth: Barnes, Ramirez, Ysla, Scott, Martin, Workman.

 

Thoughts? Those of you looking to add arms, where? These are just the options already on the 40-man roster. .

 

What I previously thought would happen was that Wright would be in the pen, not that I agree with that. But after reading some recent comments, I now believe that ERod will start in AAA, which makes the most sense to me. Nothing against ERod, but I really think we need give Pomeranz a real chance as a starter before committing him to a relief role. I don't like the idea of Wright in the pen.

 

I think this question came up before, but does Elias really have an option remaining? That would be great if he did. If he doesn't, we risk losing him.

 

As far as who to add, I honestly haven't looked to see who is available. I read this morning that the Twins just signed Vogelsong and Tepesch to minor league deals. As you have stated many times, this is the type of signing that Dombrowski needs to be looking into.

[Kimmi]

Not wild about that idea. The guy is like 44 years old...

 

Which might explain why I am not the Red Sox GM....

[Kimmi]

E-rod to start in AAA and move Pom to Rotation.

Barnes replaces Pom in pen.

rotation: Porcello - Sale - Pom - Wright - Price

 

LOL

 

I agree!

[Kimmi]

If Swi has a 1.200 OPS in ST'ing, it might be hard to justify him starting at AAA, but I doubt we get a great return by waiting to trade Vaz or Leon in early April.

 

I think no matter what happens, if all 3 catchers are healthy, Swi starts in AAA, even if he hits 1200 and Vaz and Leon combined don't hit 1000.

 

You know this as well as anyone, spring training results usually mean nothing. Small Sample Size. It would be a different story if Leon or Vaz had options remaining. So yeah, assuming good health, Swihart starts in AAA no matter what happens.

[moonslav59]

I think this question came up before, but does Elias really have an option remaining? That would be great if he did. If he doesn't, we risk losing him.

 

After earlier reporting he had 0 options, soxprospects.com now has him with 1.

 

As far as who to add, I honestly haven't looked to see who is available. I read this morning that the Twins just signed Vogelsong and Tepesch to minor league deals. As you have stated many times, this is the type of signing that Dombrowski needs to be looking into.

 

Yes, these are the types we need to grab.

[notin]

Yup, this has what Farrell has hinted at all offseason.

 

While i definitely see the merits of starting Rodriguez in AAA, Peter Abraham had written a while bsck thay the Sox might start the season with Pomeranz in the bullpen to reduce his workload after such a drastic increase last season. If he is right, Barnes becomes the odd man out as he is thr only reliever with an option left.

 

The Sox do have 5 relievers on the 40-man roster who are not likely to make the 25-man rroster, which, if they are joined by Barnes and barring injury, is decent depth for April. They do only have 3 starters in the same boat, which is not much. Putting ERod in AAA decreases the bullpen depth but increases the starter depth, although gives an interesting position that the Sox have 4 MLB-ready pitchers in Pawtucket that are all left-handed.

 

I'd like another MLB-ready starter in any case. Soxprospects list only 4 starters in Pawtucket, one br ing some guy named Scott Haviland that I know nothing about. If Barnes is in Boston, maybe a bullpen arm for depth is a good idea.

[notin]

I think this question came up before, but does Elias really have an option remaining? That would be great if he did. If he doesn't, we risk losing him.

 

After earlier reporting he had 0 options, soxprospects.com now has him with 1.

 

As far as who to add, I honestly haven't looked to see who is available. I read this morning that the Twins just signed Vogelsong and Tepesch to minor league deals. As you have stated many times, this is the type of signing that Dombrowski needs to be looking into.

 

Yes, these are the types we need to grab.

 

There are a few guys who might take minor league deals. Really my only hope is they are better than Owens, Johnson and Elias. If they aren't, no harm done.

 

Some names off the top of my head, none of which are very sexy, include Dillon Gee, Lucas Harrell, Bud Norris, and Trevor Cahill. There might even be better options than these. I was a little disappointed that Rubby De La Rosa took a minor league deal elsewhere, but maybe staying with Arizona was a priority for him...

[Station 13]

Kelly could still start right in case they need somebody. I don't want to see Owens pitching again.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects list only 4 starters in Pawtucket, one being some guy named Scott Haviland that I know nothing about.

 

Went to Harvard.

 

Signed as a minor league FA.

 

4.57 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in almost 950 IP on the farm.

[moonslav59]

Kelly could still start right in case they need somebody. I don't want to see Owens pitching again.

 

I think they are grooming Kelly to fill the role of Uehara or Ziegler.

[mvp 78]

Kelly could still start right in case they need somebody. I don't want to see Owens pitching again.

 

I don't want to jerk him around anymore. Leave him in the pen and see if he can have a stretch of success longer than 2 months.

[Station 13]

I think they are grooming Kelly to fill the role of Uehara or Ziegler.

 

That's a scary thought. This entire bullpen is really making me feel like puking, especially Kimbrel's spectacular meltdown at times.

 

I don't want to jerk him around anymore. Leave him in the pen and see if he can have a stretch of success longer than 2 months.

 

 

When Owens/Johnson are your only depth, you gotta consider Kelly returning in case. The big 3 I hold a lot of trust, the POM and EROD I do not. It's a dog fight in the east.

[moonslav59]

That's a scary thought. This entire bullpen is really making me feel like puking, especially Kimbrel's spectacular meltdown at times.

 

I have some hopes for Kelly, but I share your feelings of great concern about our whole pen.

 

 

When Owens/Johnson are your only depth, you gotta consider Kelly returning in case. The big 3 I hold a lot of trust, the POM and EROD I do not. It's a dog fight in the east.

 

Pom or Wright (or ERod) is our first depth, so that's good.

 

I think Elias is #7, Johnson #8 and Owens #9.

 

I think Owens is down to his last chance as a starter.

[Station 13]

Pom or Wright (or ERod) is our first depth, so that's good.

 

I think Elias is #7, Johnson #8 and Owens #9.

 

I think Owens is down to his last chance as a starter.

 

Pom and Erod are not depth. They are behind our front three. I forgotten Wright, he might be better suited as a long man.

[mvp 78]

When Owens/Johnson are your only depth, you gotta consider Kelly returning in case. The big 3 I hold a lot of trust, the POM and EROD I do not. It's a dog fight in the east.

 

If you need more than 8 SP's as depth, you're f***ed. Elias has a better chance at a spot start than Owens or Johnson. It's not that hard to find a AAAA pitcher.

[notin]

Pom and Erod are not depth. They are behind our front three. I forgotten Wright, he might be better suited as a long man.

 

Depending on whom you choose to believe, one of either Pomeranz (bullpen) or Rodriguez (AAA) is not likely to make the rotation. If healthy, there seems to be very little talk of Wright to the bullpen. And therereally sshouldn't be if he's healthy. He had a great run last year, and knucklers make for risky relievers...

[notin]

If you need more than 8 SP's as depth, you're f***ed. Elias has a better chance at a spot start than Owens or Johnson. It's not that hard to find a AAAA pitcher.

 

Not hard to find, but you do have to look.

 

Even the Cubs used 9 different starters last year, although many for just one game. But they had an unreliable level of health among there starters.

 

The AL East champion Red Sox used 9 starters for multiple games each...