2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[Dojji]

Maybe Sox management thinks Pom is a better starter than the others, and it has nothing to do with the Espi trade, but I do agree that the trade looks worse if Pom is in the pen.

 

I don't give the most diminutive undergrown microdamn how "the trade looks." I want the best 5 starters breaking camp with the team in April. Everything else is politics.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't give the most diminutive undergrown microdamn how "the trade looks." I want the best 5 starters breaking camp with the team in April. Everything else is politics.

 

I don't think the decision should be based on how it looks either.

 

If you include Pomeranz's San Diego numbers, though, it's a virtual coin flip who had the better season between him and Wright. There's really not much to base the decision on there either.

[Kimmi]

I don't give the most diminutive undergrown microdamn how "the trade looks." I want the best 5 starters breaking camp with the team in April. Everything else is politics.

 

It's not that I want Wright in the pen, that's just the way I think it's going to play out, provided that all the starters are healthy.

 

I agree with most of what you said about Pomeranz. I'm not concerned with how the trade looks either. However, if Pomeranz can be an effective mid rotation starter, he is worth more to the team in that role than he would be as the swing man. I certainly think it's worth seeing how he looks as a starter this season.

 

Wright deserves to be in the rotation as well. So does ERod, but since he has options, he starts in AAA. Problem solved.

[Eddy Ballgame]

It's not that I want Wright in the pen, that's just the way I think it's going to play out, provided that all the starters are healthy.

 

I agree with most of what you said about Pomeranz. I'm not concerned with how the trade looks either. However, if Pomeranz can be an effective mid rotation starter, he is worth more to the team in that role than he would be as the swing man. I certainly think it's worth seeing how he looks as a starter this season.

 

Wright deserves to be in the rotation as well. So does ERod, but since he has options, he starts in AAA. Problem solved.

 

Tell Rodriguez that. If he's healthy and pitching well, he'll be in the rotation, options or not.

[Kimmi]

Tell Rodriguez that. If he's healthy and pitching well, he'll be in the rotation, options or not.

 

You are probably right. I just disagree with it if Pomeranz and Wright are also healthy and pitching well.

 

It would be a different story if Erod were clearly a better pitcher than the other two. But as of yet, he has not established himself as such.

[Kimmi]

Tell Rodriguez that. If he's healthy and pitching well, he'll be in the rotation, options or not.

 

I think it's already been pointed out, but why is it so wrong to tell ERod that he will start the season in AAA, but it's okay to tell either Wright or Pom that they will be moved to the pen?

 

I know there's a difference between being in the pen and still being on the MLB team versus being in the minors, but Wright or Pom probably wouldn't want to be in the pen any more than ERod wants to be in AAA.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it's already been pointed out, but why is it so wrong to tell ERod that he will start the season in AAA, but it's okay to tell either Wright or Pom that they will be moved to the pen?

 

I know there's a difference between being in the pen and still being on the MLB team versus being in the minors, but Wright or Pom probably wouldn't want to be in the pen any more than ERod wants to be in AAA.

 

Well, you could probably make a case that Wright and Pom have proven themselves to be very adaptable and to be able to handle this type of arrangement. So you take advantage of that skill they have.

[moonslav59]

Again, is anyone paying attention to what DD is saying?

 

Starting job is E Rod to lose. Jesus...any of you coached before? Do you know what that means?

 

This is akin to Clay B discussion. He was gone when we traded for Sale.

 

We might have traded Buch even without the Sale trade.

 

I'm glad DD is all in on ERod. I think this is his breakout season.

[moonslav59]

I don't give the most diminutive undergrown microdamn how "the trade looks." I want the best 5 starters breaking camp with the team in April. Everything else is politics.

 

I agree. If it was up to me, Pom starts the year in the pen.

[notin]

Again, is anyone paying attention to what DD is saying?

 

Starting job is E Rod to lose. Jesus...any of you coached before? Do you know what that means?

 

This is akin to Clay B discussion. He was gone when we traded for Sale.

 

1. It doesn't mean he is right. Frankly I think its stupid to name your rotation in December. A lot can happen over the next four months.

 

3. Clearly this topic bothers you on some level. Feel free to start another.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree. If it was up to me, Pom starts the year in the pen.

 

Why Pomeranz instead of Wright?

[rkarp1]

is anyone intrigued by the thought of having a knucklehead available for multiple innings every day in that 6/7/8 area as needed? Price/Wright/Kimbrell would seem to keep most any line up off balance with in a game. I would not want a knucklehead coming in with runners on base, ut if a guy like Pomm is going to be very effective at that 90 pitch count, why not have a guy like Wright available at any time?

 

I also agree that this is a season ERod shows huge progression.

[notin]

Why Pomeranz instead of Wright?

 

Because over their careers Wright has been the better starter and Pomeranz has been the better reliever...

[Kimmi]

Well, you could probably make a case that Wright and Pom have proven themselves to be very adaptable and to be able to handle this type of arrangement. So you take advantage of that skill they have.

 

That's a fair point.

 

Or, you could take advantage of the options that ERod has.

 

As Hugh so very well pointed out, a case could be made for any 2 of the 3 to be our number 4 and 5 starters. IMO, it has to come down to what gives the team the best chances to win over the course of the full season, not whether it's fair or whether it will hurt anyone's feelings, etc.

 

People will have different opinions about what gives the team the best chances to win. I have my preferences, but I will be okay with whatever the team decides.

[Bellhorn04]

Because over their careers Wright has been the better starter and Pomeranz has been the better reliever...

 

True, but I'd counter that Pomeranz's numbers are skewed by his early seasons in Colorado. He reached the big leagues a lot younger than Wright did, needless to say.

[Jack Flap]

It is weird to me that, when i mention the notion of Rodriguez in AAA, I get told that would be "unfair" to him. Yet somehow, a move to the bullpen for 2016 AL All Star Steven Wright is absolutely fair and he should be happy to get even that much.

 

What has Rodriguez earned that Wright hasn't?

 

Precisely.

 

And another again between "forcing him to be a starter because you need starters" and "forcing him to be a starter despite having 5 other capable starters, only and solely because of the sunk cost fallacy."

 

There is literally only one reason to prefer Pomeranz over the other 2 options, and that's the trade of Anderson Espinosa for him. Otherwise it's a tradeoff between all of Wright, Pomeranz and E-Rod with no demonstrably "correct" choice between the three.

 

I want Wright because he had the best overall season of the three last year, and I want E-Rod because the alternative is he starts in Pawtucket. While Pomeranz is the third of 3 good choices, rhe only reason to force Pomeranz into the rotation regardless of the merit of the other 2 starters is to justify the Espinosa trade.

 

And let me just throw this out here -- if any part of the reason to pick your 5 starters is based on a player who ISN'T ON THE TEAM ANYMORE, that's a decision that at very best is unlikely to achieve an ideal outcome..

 

All valid points. Obviously the Espinoza trade is not a reason to keep Pomeranz in the rotation if he truly belongs in the bullpen...however, if the rhetoric that people used to justify the trade at the time (that he was a top-half-of-the-rotation type starter just beginning to break out) was actually true, then he probably should be starting.

[Bellhorn04]

That's a fair point.

 

Or, you could take advantage of the options that ERod has.

 

I like the idea that whoever #6 is, they're pitching some innings for us rather than the Pawsox.

[Kimmi]

I like the idea that whoever #6 is, they're pitching some innings for us rather than the Pawsox.

 

Fair enough Bell.

[Bellhorn04]

One note about Wright's numbers last year: his ERA was 3.33. But he also allowed a crazy high .92 unearned runs per game.

[Dojji]

Blaming a pitcher for unearned runs is a complete defiance of the whole principle of the unearned run. It's a fact that most of Wright's best starts took place in the first half of the year before we got our defensive crap together.

[moonslav59]

Why Pomeranz instead of Wright?

 

Because he has a much better record in relief than Wright, and they are both pretty even as SP'ers. I actually like Wright's SP'ing numbers slightly more than Poms. His percent of games allowing 0-2 or 0-3 ERs is better than Pom's.

 

It's a close call. Either way is fine with me.

[moonslav59]

True, but I'd counter that Pomeranz's numbers are skewed by his early seasons in Colorado. He reached the big leagues a lot younger than Wright did, needless to say.

 

Even if you look at 2016 only (both suffered injuries that may have affected their late season numbers):

 

ERA+

Wright 137

Pomeranz 128

 

ERA-

Wright 75

Pomeranz 79

 

Wright faced tougher teams in the AL East, a DH most of the games, and pitched in a hitter's park. Pom faced easier opponents and pitched many games in one of MLB's best pitcher's parks.

Edited December 28, 2016 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Even if you look at 2016 only (both suffered injuries that may have affected their late season numbers):

 

ERA+

Wright 137

Pomeranz 128

 

ERA-

Wright 75

Pomeranz 79

 

Wright faced tougher teams in the AL East, a DH most of the games, and pitched in a hitter's park. Pom faced easier opponents and pitched many games in one of MLB's best pitcher's parks.

 

And Pom comes out ahead in WAR.

 

It's a virtual wash, really...

[moonslav59]

And Pom comes out ahead in WAR.

 

It's a virtual wash, really...

 

Because he started 30 games to Wright's 24.

 

Like I said, it's close, and I'm fine with either choice.

 

My point is that even if you call them equal as starters, Pom has shown he's much better in relief than Wright, so that's the tipping poiint in my opinion- not the slight advantage Wright has as a starter both in 2016 and over their careers.

[Kimmi]

I've been looking more into DRA, Deserved Run Average, which takes into consideration pretty much everything you can think of, down to game time temperature.

It takes into account who the opposing batter is (strength of opposition) and the ballpark. It takes into account the umpire, the catcher, the handedness of the batter, the run differential of the game at the time, the inning, the base/out state, and more.

 

It's a measure of how many runs a pitcher deserves to be charged with. It does not distinguish between earned and unearned runs, per se, but rather it assigns the appropriate amount of 'blame' to a pitcher for any runs scored against him.

 

Here is how our starters ranked last year:

 

Sale: 2.69

Price: 2.90

Pomeranz: 3.03

Porcello: 3.45

Wright: 3.92

ERod: 5.11

 

Do with that information what you will.

[Kimmi]

While I'm on my fancy stat kick, here are the 2016 cFIP (Contextual FIP) numbers for our starters. FWIW, cFIP is a better predictive stat than any of the other single stat currently used. It also serves as a pretty good descriptive stat.

 

It is on a scale similar to ERA-. The lower, the better, with 100 being average.

 

Sale: 77

Price: 84

Pomeranz: 84

Porcello: 89

Wright: 103

ERod: 115

 

Maybe we should not be so quick to put Pomeranz in the pen?

[Eddy Ballgame]

While I'm on my fancy stat kick, here are the 2016 cFIP (Contextual FIP) numbers for our starters. FWIW, cFIP is a better predictive stat than any of the other single stat currently used. It also serves as a pretty good descriptive stat.

 

It is on a scale similar to ERA-. The lower, the better, with 100 being average.

 

Sale: 77

Price: 84

Pomeranz: 84

Porcello: 89

Wright: 103

ERod: 115

 

Maybe we should not be so quick to put Pomeranz in the pen?

 

When it comes to young pitchers, it's a good idea not to let recent "stats" determine a pitcher's "future" performance. Look at their "potential." Rodriguez has "ace like" stuff. I actually think he has better "stuff" than Price does at this point.

 

He also suffered a pretty serious knee injury and was tipping his pitches due to a glitch in his delivery. My guess is that these are a couple of factors that contributed to his "stats." That and the fact that he's young with less experience.

 

Ask yourself this. How many baseball executives would trade Rodriguez straight up for Pomeranz or Wright? My guess would be not one. If Rodriguez is not 100% or has an awful spring, by all means, send him to Pawtucket. If not, he's your #4 with the potential to be your future #1.

[moonslav59]

While I'm on my fancy stat kick, here are the 2016 cFIP (Contextual FIP) numbers for our starters. FWIW, cFIP is a better predictive stat than any of the other single stat currently used. It also serves as a pretty good descriptive stat.

 

It is on a scale similar to ERA-. The lower, the better, with 100 being average.

 

Sale: 77

Price: 84

Pomeranz: 84

Porcello: 89

Wright: 103

ERod: 115

 

Maybe we should not be so quick to put Pomeranz in the pen?

 

Please provide the link to the study that proves this to be the best predictive metric out there.

 

I refuse to respect metrics that are biased against low k rate top pitchers.

[harmony]

Please provide the link to the study that proves this to be the best predictive metric out there.

 

I refuse to respect metrics that are biased against low k rate top pitchers.

cFIP reading:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/fip-in-context/

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=cFIP

[moonslav59]

cFIP reading:

 

http://www.hardbealltimes.com/fip-in-context/

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=cFIP

 

I'm still not convinced, and the proof I asked for is just the creator saying it is the best.

 

There is no adjustments made for pitchers with low k rates who consistently get hitters to hit into outs.

 

Again, I respect the attempt to minimize the impact of fielders on a pitcher's success, but by totally removing it from the equation, the low k great pitchers are penalized.

 

They have Wright as below avg while his ERA- was tremendous. That's a metric that also accounts for several factors.