2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[S5Dewey]

The ultimate goal is to win a championship. I would not in any way call Dombrowski's tenure in Detroit a failure, but even with all of the division titles, they never won the big prize. Now they have a lot of huge contracts to deal with and a bare farm system. The long term ramifications are setting in. This is Exhibit A on what's wrong with the 'win now' mentality.

 

While I of course agree that the ultimate goal is to win a championship I wouldn't call four straight 1st place finishes a failure either. Only one team is going to win the WS each year and as we've said here many times, the playoffs are a crapshoot. I don't break things down into "success" or "failure" based on whether or not a team wins the WS. For me, the 2016 season was a success of sorts with the Sox finishing first in their division. The season would have been more of a success had the Sox advanced in the playoffs but winning their division after two last place finishes makes me happy. As they say, you have to creep before you can walk.

 

The only "failure" here is the Tiger's inability to build a strong farm system to replace the players who 'age out' or opt for Free Agency. Building a farm system seems to have been something that happened while Theo and Ben were here but it's difficult to say if it was their doing or the doing of the scouting system. The jury is still out on whether or not the Sox continue to build their farm(s) under DD.

[Bellhorn04]

While I of course agree that the ultimate goal is to win a championship I wouldn't call four straight 1st place finishes a failure either. Only one team is going to win the WS each year and as we've said here many times, the playoffs are a crapshoot. I don't break things down into "success" or "failure" based on whether or not a team wins the WS. For me, the 2016 season was a success of sorts with the Sox finishing first in their division. The season would have been more of a success had the Sox advanced in the playoffs but winning their division after two last place finishes makes me happy. As they say, you have to creep before you can walk.

 

The only "failure" here is the Tiger's inability to build a strong farm system to replace the players who 'age out' or opt for Free Agency. Building a farm system seems to have been something that happened while Theo and Ben were here but it's difficult to say if it was their doing or the doing of the scouting system. The jury is still out on whether or not the Sox continue to build their farm(s) under DD.

 

The reviews on DD's first draft have been pretty favorable.

[sk7326]

The I think is to look at Dombrowski and Cherington (or anybody else)'s philosophy monolithically. They are executing ownership priorities. Dombrowski had an elderly fan who wanted to win a title before he croaks - a totally defensible aim. So he was instructed to manage the team this way - that he signed Prince Fielder against his own preferences is common knowledge.

 

Now what we will never know is exactly what Henry wants out of Dombrowski - how much to weigh putting butts in seats and contending in the present year vs a player development machine. Now the Red Sox have created the latter since the new ownership - so if Dombrowski stays in house to replace Hazen (for instance) - you'll know how much Henry values what this franchise has done.

 

I don't think Dombrowski will be as reckless with trades for now as with Detroit - unless Henry is okay with it. But what he has demonstrated so far - you identify your stars and then use everybody else as trade currency - is generally the right way to run a big market team. If the Red Sox made a mistake in years past it has (especially with pitchers) not being decisive enough. I do hope Dombrowski stays internal and doesn't throw out the business processes which has worked well for Boston - there was all this yammering about the Red Sox going to a more "traditional approach" but given the success of Red Sox scouting and development - there is little broken to fix there.

[sk7326]

While I of course agree that the ultimate goal is to win a championship I wouldn't call four straight 1st place finishes a failure either. Only one team is going to win the WS each year and as we've said here many times, the playoffs are a crapshoot. I don't break things down into "success" or "failure" based on whether or not a team wins the WS. For me, the 2016 season was a success of sorts with the Sox finishing first in their division. The season would have been more of a success had the Sox advanced in the playoffs but winning their division after two last place finishes makes me happy. As they say, you have to creep before you can walk.

 

The only "failure" here is the Tiger's inability to build a strong farm system to replace the players who 'age out' or opt for Free Agency. Building a farm system seems to have been something that happened while Theo and Ben were here but it's difficult to say if it was their doing or the doing of the scouting system. The jury is still out on whether or not the Sox continue to build their farm(s) under DD.

 

The scouting system was built by management - so that seems creditworthy

[sk7326]

The reviews on DD's first draft have been pretty favorable.

 

DD was smart to keep a lot of the Red Sox infrastucture - and hopefully with Hazen's departure they limit the brain drain on that front.

[moonslav59]

That list doesn't reflect badly on Dombrowski. 4 out of the 6 are his, and 3 of those 4 have been pretty good players, I'd say.

 

Yes, many have been good, but would you take any of these contracts now for no player in return?

[moonslav59]

It's too bad Miggy's contract is so large. He would be an excellent replacement for Papi at DH.

 

Shaw and Pablo for Miggy.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, many have been good, but would you take any of these contracts now for no player in return?

 

As has been said many times, the back end of these deals is seldom good.

[S5Dewey]

Shaw and Pablo for Miggy.

 

 

You have to like a man with a sense of humor. :D

[Bellhorn04]

I'd take Verlander.

[Dojji]

The ultimate goal is to win a championship. I would not in any way call Dombrowski's tenure in Detroit a failure, but even with all of the division titles, they never won the big prize. Now they have a lot of huge contracts to deal with and a bare farm system. The long term ramifications are setting in. This is Exhibit A on what's wrong with the 'win now' mentality.

 

not really. More if an indictment of recent Tigers draft strategy and a sign that it's time to cool it for awhile until the draft starts producing nuggets again instead if duds.

 

If D&D are doing their jobs well, it should be possible to stay aggressively competitive for a long time, at least until attrition erodes the core of the team. But there always comes a time when you lose enough gambles in a row and the pipelibe goes dry for long enough that it's time to take a step back form the table and lick your metaphorical wounds for awhile. It's a natural part of the baseball life cycle.

[moonslav59]

As has been said many times, the back end of these deals is seldom good.

 

As I have shown many times, the front ends of these types of deals are not good either in more than half the times.

 

Just look at all the mega deals handed to SP'ers last winter: only Cueto's was an unqualified success.

[Bellhorn04]

As I have shown many times, the front ends of these types of deals are not good either in more than half the times.

 

Just look at all the mega deals handed to SP'ers last winter: only Cueto's was an unqualified success.

 

Yes, but Miggy and Verlander and V-Mart (mostly) have returned good value in their contracts so far.

 

So maybe Dombrowski should actually be praised for those particular deals...

[moonslav59]

I'd take Verlander.

 

He's the closest one for me. $28M x 3 is a lot for a pitcher who will be 34 on opening day. His last two years have been great as he has re-invented himself. His 2013-2014 seasons were way below his normal peripherals.

 

I'd probably take him over Price.

[moonslav59]

Yes, but Miggy and Verlander and V-Mart (mostly) have returned good value in their contracts so far.

 

So maybe Dombrowski should actually be praised for those particular deals...

 

I'm not sure if "praised" is the right word, but I guess that depends on how much you value the "back end" and whether the "front end" led to championships and/or very competitive teams. The Tigers have been fun to watch. Their glaring weakness in the pen seemed to always be their downfall.

 

Let's look closer at DD's biggest signings with the Tigers:

 

Miggy $248M/8 (starting 2016) signed 3/28/14

--2016 .316/.393/.563/.956

Very well worth the money, so far and he turns 34 in April. 7 years to go.

 

Fielder $214M/9 (12-20) signed 1/25/12

--2012: .940 OPS in 162 games

--2013: .819 OPS in 162 games

Trade for Kinsler

Clearly, the signing looks awful now with his injury and .760 OPS with Texas in 289 games over 3 seasons, but if you count the Kinsler trade as part of the equation, it doesn't look as badly. Still, a bad signing.

 

Verlander $180M/7 (13-19) signed 3/29/13

--2013 13-12 3.46 ERA/ 1.315 WHIP

--2014 15-12 4.54/1.398

--2015 5-8 3.38/1.088 (just 20 starts)

--2016 16-9 3.04/ 1.001 (led league)

While Verlander finsihed 11th in WAR and outpaced his salary according to fangraph's WAR page ($122.6M), his ERA- (90 ranks 68th out of 216) and WHIP (1.21 ranks 69/216) were way lower than his previous few years before the signing. He clearly declined after the contract began.

 

 

A Sanchez $80M/5 (13-17) signed 12/14/12

--2013 14-8 2.57 (led league)/1.154

--2014 8-5 3.43/1.095 (only 21 starts)

--2015 10-10 4.99/1.280 (25 GS)

--2016 5.87 7-13/1.461 (26 GS)

fangraphs value: $82.7M, but clearly AS has been a huge disappointment.

 

VMart $68M/4 (15-18) signed 11/12/14

--.667 OPS in 485 PAs

--.826 OPS in 610 PAs

Certainly worth the money, but not fantastic with a .756 OPS over the first 2 years. He turns 38 in December and has 2 years to go.

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Fielder $214M/9 (12-20) signed 1/25/12

--2012: .940 OPS in 162 games

--2013: .819 OPS in 162 games

Trade for Kinsler

Clearly, the signing looks awful now with his injury and .760 OPS with Texas in 289 games over 3 seasons, but if you count the Kinsler trade as part of the equation, it doesn't look as badly. Still, a bad signing.

 

How can it be a bad signing when it turned out great for the Tigers?

[Nick]

How can it be a bad signing when it turned out great for the Tigers?

 

Exactly.

 

What a bunch of hypocrites...Sox fans dissing 4 consecutive Division titles? you can't win the big one without first getting into the playoffs....increase in attendance=increase in revenue....what the f***? you numb nuts think Henry is in this to win a f***ing trophy? winning=increase in attendance, tv revenue=value of franchise goes up.

 

If I'm buying the Tigers, it's important for me to know that 3M+ attendance is achievable.

 

It's an investment. I'm little surprised at some of you esteemed posters.

Edited October 23, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

How can it be a bad signing when it turned out great for the Tigers?

 

Where did I say it turned out "great"?

 

The signing was horrible in hindsight.

 

If you want to count the Kinslaer trade as part of the equation (I wouldn't, if we're talking only about big signings), it's still not great. Kinsler is paid a lot ($62M/4- no great bargain). The Tigers also had to pay $30M of Fielder's contrat after they traded him, so Kinsler essentially cot them $92M/4. His OPS dipped from .804 in TEX to .775 in DET. but at least he has been healthy.

 

Not a good signing, even if you count the follow-up trade.

 

[moonslav59]

What a bunch of hypocrites..

 

You can disagree with my points, but I've been against all massive signings by the Sox and I have shown how the vast majority of mega signings have not only been bad on the back end, but also on the front end.

 

Where have I been hypocritical?

[moonslav59]

How can it be a bad signing when it turned out great for the Tigers?

 

On the other thread, you just said it's all about rings.

 

Did these signings lead to rings?

[Bellhorn04]

Where did I say it turned out "great"?

 

The signing was horrible in hindsight.

 

If you want to count the Kinslaer trade as part of the equation (I wouldn't, if we're talking only about big signings), it's still not great. Kinsler is paid a lot ($62M/4- no great bargain). The Tigers also had to pay $30M of Fielder's contrat after they traded him, so Kinsler essentially cot them $92M/4. His OPS dipped from .804 in TEX to .775 in DET. but at least he has been healthy.

 

Not a good signing, even if you count the follow-up trade.

 

 

I'm the one who's saying it was great.

 

Kinsler has averaged about 6 WAR a year with the Tigers. Well worth 23 million a year by today's values.

[Bellhorn04]

On the other thread, you just said it's all about rings.

 

Did these signings lead to rings?

 

It's all about trying for rings. The playoffs are a crapshoot.

[Kimmi]

4 straight division titles, you can't ask for much more than that. The playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

I don't know if it's fair to call 4 straight division titles the product of a 'win now' mentality, when not many teams have done it.

 

If a team is making moves with little or no concern for the long term outlook of the franchise, that is what I consider a win now mentality. Win now does not necessarily mean only a one year shot. The Tigers FO knew that they were sacrificing the future of the team in an attempt to win a World Series for the aging Ilitch.

 

If the Tigers are happy with their 4 straight division titles and the current state of their franchise, then their plan was a success.

[Dojji]

Whether or not it was a success, with a core like that, potent but aging, it was the right strategy. You either go for it or you sell off assets in trade to get younger, and you only do the latter if you don't think you have a chance to win the whole thing.

[Kimmi]

While I of course agree that the ultimate goal is to win a championship I wouldn't call four straight 1st place finishes a failure either. Only one team is going to win the WS each year and as we've said here many times, the playoffs are a crapshoot. I don't break things down into "success" or "failure" based on whether or not a team wins the WS. For me, the 2016 season was a success of sorts with the Sox finishing first in their division. The season would have been more of a success had the Sox advanced in the playoffs but winning their division after two last place finishes makes me happy. As they say, you have to creep before you can walk.

 

The only "failure" here is the Tiger's inability to build a strong farm system to replace the players who 'age out' or opt for Free Agency. Building a farm system seems to have been something that happened while Theo and Ben were here but it's difficult to say if it was their doing or the doing of the scouting system. The jury is still out on whether or not the Sox continue to build their farm(s) under DD.

 

I clearly said that Dombrowski's tenure in Detroit cannot be considered a failure. I just disagree wholeheartedly with the philosophy of building a team by buying a lot of free agents and trading away your farm for other big name players. The Tigers inability to build a strong farm system is my main issue with their philosophy.

 

Building a strong franchise starts with the farm system, not with free agents.

[oldtimer]

I wonder about the sports writers bringing up Ian Desmond as a possibility for the Sox. He has been a shortstop but probably would be considered for a short term contract for 3rd base. Be interesting to see how many options are considered and will any of them bear fruit.

[Kimmi]

not really. More if an indictment of recent Tigers draft strategy and a sign that it's time to cool it for awhile until the draft starts producing nuggets again instead if duds.

 

If D&D are doing their jobs well, it should be possible to stay aggressively competitive for a long time, at least until attrition erodes the core of the team. But there always comes a time when you lose enough gambles in a row and the pipelibe goes dry for long enough that it's time to take a step back form the table and lick your metaphorical wounds for awhile. It's a natural part of the baseball life cycle.

 

IMO, if a team builds a strong farm system and fills the holes with the right choices through free agency, they should be able to remain competitive year in and year out.

 

Building a team with no regard to the future will inevitably result in a 'rebuild'.

[Kimmi]

Yes, but Miggy and Verlander and V-Mart (mostly) have returned good value in their contracts so far.

 

So maybe Dombrowski should actually be praised for those particular deals...

 

Dombrowski gets credit for being decisive about who he wants and then acting quickly on it.

[Nick]

Dombrowski gets credit for being decisive about who he wants and then acting quickly on it.

 

You give absolutely no credit for increase in attendance during his tenure in Detroit.....look up the correlation between winning and attendance.

 

By your definition, Red Sox was a major failure for all of 20th century. Apparently we spent 100 years building for the future, 2004.

[Dojji]

IMO, if a team builds a strong farm system and fills the holes with the right choices through free agency, they should be able to remain competitive year in and year out.

 

Building a team with no regard to the future will inevitably result in a 'rebuild'.

 

Rebuilds happen. Usually when you make a lot of the right decisions that don't work out, in a row.