2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[mvp 78]

Here's something from Sox Prospects with new rankings...

 

 

Not many changes to talk about in the top 15 or so but the staff has made a number changes in the rest of the top 60.

 

Summary

Yoan Moncada is still number one and his ceiling is now 8.

The twin who's still here, Luis Alexander Basabe, moved up one spot to # 7.

Luis Ysla and Mike Shawaryn are both up 3 to 18 and 19 respectively.

Victor Diaz rose a whopping 28 spots in the rankings from 49 to 21. Throws almost as hard as Kopech with better secondary pitches. (that's me commenting)

Travis Lakins dropped from 17 to 22.

Shaun Anderson fell from 20 to 23.

Gerson Bautista jumped from 38 to 28.

Brian Mata, a 17 year signed as an IFA in January (at age 16), is ranked for the first time at # 34.

Deven Marrero fell 10 positions landing at # 38.

Bryce Brents also fell, coming in this month at 39 from 32 on 9/1.

Austin Glorius is down 8 from 37 to 45.

Marc Brakeman down from 40 to 48.

Tyler Hill rose from 51 to 47.

Robby Scott is at # 50. He was last ranked 58th back in February.

Austin Rei down from 45 to 52.

Lorenzo Cedrola rose from 58 to 54.

Roldani Baldwin is at 59, a notch higher than the previous time he was ranked back on 8/1.

 

 

Read more: http://forum.soxprospects.com/thread/3254/soxprospects-rankings-discussion?page=5#ixzz4NLmtccKr

 

Nice to see. This should probably be put to http://www.talksox.com/forum/forums/17-Red-Sox-Minor-Leagues

[Jack Flap]

Dream big guys

 

To the Seattle Mariners

Blake Swihart

Yoan Moncada

Sam Travis

Mauricio Dubon

Michael Kopech

 

To the Boston Red Sox

Felix Hernandez

Edwin Diaz

Prospect

 

King Felix is at least as available as Quintana or Sale, he's getting a little older (about to turn 31) with a ton of miles on his arm, is super expensive, and with the Mariners in a holding pattern for years now, may be willing to take a trade to a winner, or even ask for one. The Mariners may be willing to trade their top asset for a sufficient boatload of prospects in order to retool. THe Sox would be gambling heavily of course, since 2016 was King Felix's worst FIP year of his career, but nothing ventured nothing gained.

 

One thing is certain, the Mariners are one of the best possible trade targets this year, they need so many of the things we have, in particular their catching is putrid and would benefit from any one of the 3 young catchers we have rattling around, especially Swihart because of their general lack of offense.

 

Also if I thought there was any chance we could score Kyle Seager, that would be one of the trades in which I'd be thrilled to commit Moncada. However Seager has a very very team friendly contract, so I doubt that's a thing.

 

Eh, I seem to be in the minority here, but that feels like too much to give for an aging, very expensive, and possibly declining Felix. Moncada, Swihart, Kopech++ probably gets them Sale or Quintana, or at least pretty close.

[Jack Flap]

Are we that down on Moncada after 20 plate appearances when he probably shouldn't have even been in the majors yet? For me he's still in the "Not trading unless a dream scenario comes along" category.

[cp176]

Are we that down on Moncada after 20 plate appearances when he probably shouldn't have even been in the majors yet? For me he's still in the "Not trading unless a dream scenario comes along" category.

 

I'm with you here. it would all depend on what the dream scenario was.

[moonslav59]

Here's something from Sox Prospects with new rankings...

 

 

Not many changes to talk about in the top 15 or so but the staff has made a number changes in the rest of the top 60.

 

Summary

Yoan Moncada is still number one and his ceiling is now 8.

The twin who's still here, Luis Alexander Basabe, moved up one spot to # 7.

Luis Ysla and Mike Shawaryn are both up 3 to 18 and 19 respectively.

Victor Diaz rose a whopping 28 spots in the rankings from 49 to 21. Throws almost as hard as Kopech with better secondary pitches. (that's me commenting)

Travis Lakins dropped from 17 to 22.

Shaun Anderson fell from 20 to 23.

Gerson Bautista jumped from 38 to 28.

Brian Mata, a 17 year signed as an IFA in January (at age 16), is ranked for the first time at # 34.

Deven Marrero fell 10 positions landing at # 38.

Bryce Brents also fell, coming in this month at 39 from 32 on 9/1.

Austin Glorius is down 8 from 37 to 45.

Marc Brakeman down from 40 to 48.

Tyler Hill rose from 51 to 47.

Robby Scott is at # 50. He was last ranked 58th back in February.

Austin Rei down from 45 to 52.

Lorenzo Cedrola rose from 58 to 54.

Roldani Baldwin is at 59, a notch higher than the previous time he was ranked back on 8/1.

 

 

Read more: http://forum.soxprospects.com/thread/3254/soxprospects-rankings-discussion?page=5#ixzz4NLmtccKr

 

I think Dubon deserves the top 10 ranking. Not much else changed in the top 20 from a month ago.

[moonslav59]

I'm with you here. it would all depend on what the dream scenario was.

 

Would that dream be this....

 

Moncada, Swihart, Shaw, Johnson and Owens for Quintana & Frazier?

[cp176]

Worth consideration I guess. You like Frazier. i'm not sold on him providing much of an upgrade. These are the types of questions though that DD is going to have to sort through if a deal gets done with anybody. You have to give to get for sure. I do think though that the Red Sox should deal from strength this time around. it is still possible that our core of starting pitchers can be more than just adequate.

I also think that this if the organization goes after a hitter than a trade for a pitcher will get done. Can you imagine the outcry from Red Sox Nation if EE was signed and there was no significant pitching upgrade made. It would be brutal!

[Jack Flap]

I also think that this if the organization goes after a hitter than a trade for a pitcher will get done. Can you imagine the outcry from Red Sox Nation if EE was signed and there was no significant pitching upgrade made. It would be brutal!

 

With Papi departing and question marks hovering over 3B, I think we need a hitter significantly more than we need a starting pitcher. Relief, sure...but if we go into next year with Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, and Wright (or possibly Buchholz if you like) as our starting five , then there are far worse rotations in MLB, and I'm not sure we'll be able to significantly improve on that group without paying a painful price.

[Dojji]

While I put forward that silly trade proposal, I more or less agree with Jack. We have a good-not-great starting 5 that isn't fantastic at the top, but has the potential to be very deep and strong and all 6 of the starters we could slot into it have been dominant in flashes. The potential for an exceptional rotation is there. Failing that, we should be at least good enough that an above average offense can get the job done.

 

The rotation gets a lot better if Price rounds back into form.

[mvp 78]

While I put forward that silly trade proposal, I more or less agree with Jack. We have a good-not-great starting 5 that isn't fantastic at the top, but has the potential to be very deep and strong and all 6 of the starters we could slot into it have been dominant in flashes. The potential for an exceptional rotation is there. Failing that, we should be at least good enough that an above average offense can get the job done.

 

The rotation gets a lot better if Price rounds back into form.

 

If the rotation is Ace?/Price/Porcello, I'm not sure you have to worry too much about Pomeranz and Wright/Buchholz filling out the rotation. That rotation should be good enough to guarantee a postseason run. That's why I would think about trading one of the B's to help get another TOTR guy in here.

[Slasher9]

we need 2 obtain 2 TOTR guys if we want a parade. how many times does Price have to prove that he cannot pitch in October?

fool me 15 times.....isnt how the saying goes......

[moonslav59]

Worth consideration I guess. You like Frazier. i'm not sold on him providing much of an upgrade. These are the types of questions though that DD is going to have to sort through if a deal gets done with anybody. You have to give to get for sure. I do think though that the Red Sox should deal from strength this time around. it is still possible that our core of starting pitchers can be more than just adequate.

I also think that this if the organization goes after a hitter than a trade for a pitcher will get done. Can you imagine the outcry from Red Sox Nation if EE was signed and there was no significant pitching upgrade made. It would be brutal!

 

I'm not a huge Frazier fan, but he's got just one year left, and maybe the CWS are okay with parting ways with him and saving on paying for his last ARB year. He got over $8M last year.

 

His downside is he bats righty and K's alot. He's also been below his career .317 OBP the last two years- YUCK!

 

However, he's slugged over .450 for three straight years and 29, 35 and 40 HRs the last three years. He's a +3.6 UZR/150 fielder at 3B, which compares to Longoria, but he's +26 DRS on Evan in that category. Todd is +11 DRS over the last 3 years. He's not great at 3B, but he's much better, steadier, and more powerful than what we have going into 2017.

 

His contract runs out after 2017, which paves the way for Moncada, Devers or someone else to win the job by then.

[Dojji]

Given a choice between Frazier and Moustakas, I go after Moustakas. They're basically the same guy statistically, they're both on their last year and about to get expensive for their team, and Moustakas has a ring.

[moonslav59]

Given a choice between Frazier and Moustakas, I go after Moustakas. They're basically the same guy statistically, they're both on their last year and about to get expensive for their team, and Moustakas has a ring.

 

I think Frazier would cost much less in return, but I like Moustakas better as well.

 

Maybe a Moustakas Wade Davis deal can be made.

[moonslav59]

Rumor has it that the Royals are looking to dump salary.

 

I'm wondering if taking Ian Kennedy's remaining contract would help us get Moustakas and Davis.

 

Kennedy is due $62.5M over the next 4 years ($14M luxury tax hit), but he also has an opt out after 2017 that pays him $6M, so it could end up being $19.5M for just 2017.

 

Davis is owed $10M

 

Mostakas has a final arb year after making $8.7M this year.

 

I'm not saying these guys are salary dumps, but their high contract cost would be a factor in lowering the return.

[Nick]

Would that dream be this....

 

Moncada, Swihart, Shaw, Johnson and Owens for Quintana & Frazier?

 

We're giving up almost 30 years of team control.......yikes

[moonslav59]

We're giving up almost 30 years of team control.......yikes

 

Yes, for 5 (Quintana 4 and Frazier 1), but let's face it, Johnson and Owens have a very little chance to ever crack the Sox rotation that appears set for 2 more years, so there's at least 2 x 2= 4 years that shouldn't count. I doubt Shaw ever has a FT job with us again, but I could be wrong. The only years that really will hurt are the Moncada/Swihart years....significant, yes, but not 30 years.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Yes, for 5 (Quintana 4 and Frazier 1), but let's face it, Johnson and Owens have a very little chance to ever crack the Sox rotation that appears set for 2 more years, so there's at least 2 x 2= 4 years that shouldn't count. I doubt Shaw ever has a FT job with us again, but I could be wrong. The only years that really will hurt are the Moncada/Swihart years....significant, yes, but not 30 years.

 

So you have Frazier at 3b, and then Sandoval platooning with Young at DH?

 

To be sure, the Red Sox are going to give Sandoval an opportunity to play next year. They aren't going to bury him on the depth chart. But he could be the DH rather than the 3b.

[moonslav59]

So you have Frazier at 3b, and then Sandoval platooning with Young at DH?

 

Yeah, for now. If Pablo doesn't work out, finding a left bat is not hard to do.

 

I think signing Turner to 4-5 years would end up blocking Moncada or devers, although I guess we could trade Turner later (or a prospects) or move the prospects to LF or 1B.

 

As bad as pablo has been for us, he still put up a .744 OPS vs RHPs in 2015. While that's not great, it's not bad for a floor.

[mvp 78]

Team control wins championships?

[Jack Flap]

Isn't it a rather big indictment of Dombrowski that after committing $217 million to one starter and trading a top 15-20 prospect in MLB for another, we still have a sizable group that believes the offseason would be incomplete without adding a TOTR type (or two, in Slasher's case)?

[harmony]

Dream big guys

 

To the Seattle Mariners

Blake Swihart

Yoan Moncada

Sam Travis

Mauricio Dubon

Michael Kopech

 

To the Boston Red Sox

Felix Hernandez

Edwin Diaz

Prospect

 

King Felix is at least as available as Quintana or Sale, he's getting a little older (about to turn 31) with a ton of miles on his arm, is super expensive, and with the Mariners in a holding pattern for years now, may be willing to take a trade to a winner, or even ask for one. The Mariners may be willing to trade their top asset for a sufficient boatload of prospects in order to retool. THe Sox would be gambling heavily of course, since 2016 was King Felix's worst FIP year of his career, but nothing ventured nothing gained.

 

One thing is certain, the Mariners are one of the best possible trade targets this year, they need so many of the things we have, in particular their catching is putrid and would benefit from any one of the 3 young catchers we have rattling around, especially Swihart because of their general lack of offense.

 

Also if I thought there was any chance we could score Kyle Seager, that would be one of the trades in which I'd be thrilled to commit Moncada. However Seager has a very very team friendly contract, so I doubt that's a thing.

For what it's worth, this year the Mariners got 2.5 fWAR and the Red Sox 2.2 fWAR from the catching position. Seattle got 1.2 fWAR in only 55 games from 25-year-old Mike Zunino. The M's would not want to downgrade to Swihart, who is barely one year younger than Zunino, given Zunino's far superior defensive skills. This season Zunino had a wRC+ of 115 and Swihart a wRC+ of 95, albeit in small samples.

 

Zunino's defensive skills rival those of Christian Vazquez, who is older than Zunino.

 

Seattle's Jesus Sucre is Sandy Leon's counterpart while veteran catchers Chris Iannetta and Ryan Hanigan await decisions on 2017 team options.

 

I suspect Seattle is looking to contend in 2017 after finishing fourth in the league in run differential en route to 86 wins this year. A prospect package is not all that attractive.

Edited October 17, 2016 by harmony

[Nick]

Team control wins championships?

 

If Moncada is brought up midway through 2017, he would then give us 6 more years beginning 2018. Moncada's and Swihart's combined WAR maybe significant over the next several years.

 

Don't you have to think about those numbers when you are trading almost major league ready prospects?

[moonslav59]

Isn't it a rather big indictment of Dombrowski that after committing $217 million to one starter and trading a top 15-20 prospect in MLB for another, we still have a sizable group that believes the offseason would be incomplete without adding a TOTR type (or two, in Slasher's case)?

 

Yes.

[mvp 78]

Isn't it a rather big indictment of Dombrowski that after committing $217 million to one starter and trading a top 15-20 prospect in MLB for another, we still have a sizable group that believes the offseason would be incomplete without adding a TOTR type (or two, in Slasher's case)?

 

People had the same complaints with Cherington.

[S5Dewey]

Isn't it a rather big indictment of Dombrowski that after committing $217 million to one starter and trading a top 15-20 prospect in MLB for another, we still have a sizable group that believes the offseason would be incomplete without adding a TOTR type (or two, in Slasher's case)?

 

Well..yes, but the flip side of that coin is that we went from last to first on DD's watch, too. I've always had reservations about Price that I don't need to go into again (not now anyway LOL). Let's just say that we got what we should have expected based on prior performance.

As far as Kimbrel goes, he didn't show up as advertised and I don't see that as being DD's fault. As with everything, you take the knowledge you have in front of you and make decisions based on that knowledge.

 

It was "unfortunate" - for lack of a better word - that both of those guys went into the crapper late in the season. With one of them it was predictable, (oops!) but with the other one it wasn't.

[Slasher9]

Isn't it a rather big indictment of Dombrowski that after committing $217 million to one starter and trading a top 15-20 prospect in MLB for another, we still have a sizable group that believes the offseason would be incomplete without adding a TOTR type (or two, in Slasher's case)?

 

for the record...i believe 100% we can win the division again with our rotation as is.

Price

Porc

Erod

Pom Pom

Wright

Clay

but no way in h-e-double hockey sticks we win the tournament without picking up 2.

[Bellhorn04]

Isn't it a rather big indictment of Dombrowski that after committing $217 million to one starter and trading a top 15-20 prospect in MLB for another, we still have a sizable group that believes the offseason would be incomplete without adding a TOTR type (or two, in Slasher's case)?

 

Not really. It's more like we have a sizable group who won't be happy unless we go into 2017 as World Series favorites.

[moonslav59]

People had the same complaints with Cherington.

 

I always viewed Ben's plan as a 5 year plan that would keep us competitive but not faves until 2016.

 

The Lester extension fiasco was a major cluster F%^&! Once it was certain, JL was leaving, I understood the plan to have the summer purge. I had hoped it was more about the longer look, but luckily Cespedes magically turned into Porcello.

 

Ben built the farm up like nobody since 2003-2005. I believe his plan was to fix the offense in 2015, but HanRam and Pablo both were horrible in 2015- leading to a last place finish (again). I truly believe Ben would have signed Price or Cueto last winter, had he still been here. I'm not sure about the Kimbrel deal, but I think he would have traded some prospects for some other big piece for 2016. His main objective, to me, was to keep us as strong contenders beyond just 2016. I think he tried to learn from Theo's mistakes. Grantedk, he signed Pablo to 5 years and HanRam to 4, but let's not forget Theo signed CC to 7 years and traded away Rizzo.

 

DD's plan was a one year plan with Price and Kimbrel under team control for 3 total years. Pom has a couple years left as well. Young was a great signing to bridge to Beni and partially to help fill the gap left by Papi's retirement.

 

It's hard to compare DD to Ben, especially since Ben was removed before the 5 year plan took effect.

 

[moonslav59]

Not really. It's more like we have a sizable group who won't be happy unless we go into 2017 as World Series favorites.

 

Well, if you're going to sign Price to a record contract and trade away Espi, Margot and others, I'd like to be a top 5 contender for 3 years. I think we were this year (barely), and I hope we can lose papi and still be top 5, but that remains to be seen.