A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

MLB.com top prospects by position:

 

RHP

4) Kopech

6) Espinoza

 

LHP

2) Groome

 

1B:

10) Travis

 

2B:

1) Moncada

9) C Asuaje

 

3B)

1) Devers

 

OF

1) Beni

8) Margot

 

 

 

 

[Nick]

MLB.com top prospects by position:

 

RHP

4) Kopech

6) Espinoza

 

LHP

2) Groome

 

1B:

10) Travis

 

2B:

1) Moncada

9) C Asuaje

 

3B)

1) Devers

 

OF

1) Beni

8) Margot

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks Ben

[moonslav59]

Thanks Ben

 

...and Theo!

[Nick]

...and Theo!

 

And JF for leading us to last place finishes...got Beni and Groome.

[moonslav59]

The prospects traded by DD over the last 8 months:

1 Yoan Moncada

3 Anderson Espinoza

3 Manuel Margot

5 Michael Kopech

6 Javier Guerra

7 Luis Basabe

12 Travis Shaw (not a prospect at time of trade)

12 Wendell Rijo

13 Logan Allen

13 Pat Light

18 Luis Basabe

20 Carlos Asuaje

21 Victor Diaz

24 Josh Pennington

30 Aaron Wilkerson

40 Jose Almonte

 

Others (post-prospects or prior to 8 months ago):

1 Buchholz

3 Cecchini

11 Coyle

21 J Aro (just DFA'd by SEA)

 

Edited January 27, 2017 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

The prospects traded by DD over the last 8 months:

1 Yoan Moncada

3 Manuel Margot

5 Michael Kopech

6 Javier Guerra

7 Luis Basabe

12 Travis Shaw (not a prospect at time of trade)

12 Wendell Rijo

13 Logan Allen

13 Pat Light

18 Luis Basabe

20 Carlos Asuaje

21 Victor Diaz

24 Josh Pennington

30 Aaron Wilkerson

40 Jose Almonte

 

Others (post-prospects or prior to 8 months ago):

1 Buchholz

3 Cecchini

11 Coyle

21 J Aro (just DFA'd by SEA)

 

 

Plus Espinoza.

[Nick]

#11 Devers now ahead of #17 Moncada... I hated to see Kopech and Diaz go..

[moonslav59]

And JF for leading us to last place finishes...got Beni and Groome.

 

...and for allowing players to walk for comp picks:

 

JBJ & Swihart for A Beltre

Barnes & Owens for VMart

Kopech for Ellsbury

Ellsbury & Lowrie for OCab

Buchholz & Egan for Pedro

Daniel Bard & K Johnson for Damon

B Johnson & P Light for Papelbon

Hansen (traded with Manny for JBay) & Bowden for D-Lowe

Ranaudo (who got us R Ross) for B Wagner

Stephen Fife (helped us get Erik Bedard) r for Hunter Morris

Workman B Brentz for J Bay

N Hagadone (traded w Masterson for VMart) for Gonzo

Aaron Bates & Caleb Clay for Mueller

Ryan Dent for Foulke

Bryan Price for E Gane

 

Boy, that Nomar-OCab trade not only helped win us that ring in 2004, the comp picks brought us Ellsbury, Lowrie, Kopech (via Ellsbury) and Sale (via Kopech and others) It's the gift that just keeps giving.

[moonslav59]

#11 Devers now ahead of #17 Moncada... I hated to see Kopech and Diaz go..

 

and Espi, Asuaje and Margot, although Manuel was essentially blocked.

[moonslav59]

Anybody have a good explanation for the severe reverse splits shown by Thornburg over his career?

 

The RHD'd pitcher does way better vs LHBs:

 

Career

 

vs RHBs:

.239/.316/.416/.732 (496 PAs against)

 

vs LHBs:

.181/.278/.253/.531 (414 PAs against)

 

[Kimmi]

Thanks Ben

 

Post of the year!

[Station 13]

Pretty impressive after a prospect dump like we just had!

 

Wow, Moncada fell a long way based on a tiny ML sample size.

 

Moncada was #17 on ESPN/Law's ranking previous year as well.

[moonslav59]

Moncada was #17 on ESPN/Law's ranking previous year as well.

 

I didn't realize that.

 

Was that his midseason ranking or last January?

[Station 13]

I didn't realize that.

 

Was that his midseason ranking or last January?

 

The latter. He was 5th mid season I think.

[Station 13]

#11 Devers now ahead of #17 Moncada... I hated to see Kopech and Diaz go..

 

Parting with Kopech was hard, but Sale more than make up for it. Having 3 front rotation starters in the rotation is a great thing.

[moonslav59]

Parting with Kopech was hard, but Sale more than make up for it. Having 3 front rotation starters in the rotation is a great thing.

 

I totally agree. I don't think I've ever felt this good about top 3 starters. Top 6 is right up there too.

 

[Kimmi]

Parting with Kopech was hard, but Sale more than make up for it. Having 3 front rotation starters in the rotation is a great thing.

 

There is no doubt that our rotation, especially our top 3, should be a force. Personally, I thought our rotation was good enough, though lacking somewhat in depth, when we had Buchholz instead of Sale, so I'm not as quick to say that Sale more than makes up for the prospects that we lost. Time will tell.

[Kimmi]

Just for fun, because I like looking at this kind of thing, here are Davenport's projected AL East standings as of today. The projected 84 wins for the Red Sox is a big head scratcher. He doesn't seem to like our pitching staff too much.

 

AL East Won Lost Runs Runs A

BOS 84 78 761 732

TOR 84 78 744 716

BAL 82 80 740 730

NYY 80 82 719 733

TBY 80 82 713 724

[Bellhorn04]

Just for fun, because I like looking at this kind of thing, here are Davenport's projected AL East standings as of today. The projected 84 wins for the Red Sox is a big head scratcher. He doesn't seem to like our pitching staff too much.

 

AL East Won Lost Runs Runs A

BOS 84 78 761 732

TOR 84 78 744 716

BAL 82 80 740 730

NYY 80 82 719 733

TBY 80 82 713 724

 

Those numbers are wacky. Every team around .500 with a negligible run differential.

[Nick]

Hard to believe we're only 4 games better than Tampa.

[Bellhorn04]

Hard to believe we're only 4 games better than Tampa.

 

It almost looks like they flipped a coin 162 times for each team. How wishy-washy can you get?

[moonslav59]

,,,and some of the other AL East teams appear to have gotten worse over the winter while our short term look got much brighter.

[notin]

Trading prospects is also a cost.

 

True but not necessarily as much of one. If the prospects don't pan out as expected, the cost isn't nearly as much. And the majority don't.

 

And even if they do, it still could be cheaper that carrying an ace, or worse, a former ace, for 5 years in excess of $150mill and hoping he can at least be above average as he enters his late 30's...

[Station 13]

There is no doubt that our rotation, especially our top 3, should be a force. Personally, I thought our rotation was good enough, though lacking somewhat in depth, when we had Buchholz instead of Sale, so I'm not as quick to say that Sale more than makes up for the prospects that we lost. Time will tell.

 

Buchholz is somebody that cannot be depend on. He went a month without pitching. This rotation was sketchy at the end, Wright, Pomegranate and Eddie are not trustworthy as #3s for me. The first two just came out of nowhere and never thrown that much innings, ditto with Eddie. Sale is a top 3 starter, I'll gladly have that for Kopech and company for the next 3 year. Kopech might not even make his debut in that time.

[harmony]

,,,and some of the other AL East teams appear to have gotten worse over the winter while our short term look got much brighter.

Even with Toronto losing Edwin Encarnacion, no AL East club lost a player who posted the .315/.401/.620/1.021, OPS+ 162 line of David Ortiz last year. Like last offseason the Red Sox made a high-profile splash with the acquisition of an "ace" starter but also lost Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Clay Buchholz.

 

The Red Sox are in a position to repeat as AL East champs but I question whether the outlook is much brighter.

[Kimmi]

Those numbers are wacky. Every team around .500 with a negligible run differential.

 

I agree that they are wacky. None of the other divisions are that close. He currently has the Cubs winning their division by 20 games, with a run differential of +219. We'll see how his projections look as we get closer to the season. His projections are usually pretty good - as good as projections can be anyway. They usually at least make a lot more sense.

[Kimmi]

Buchholz is somebody that cannot be depend on. He went a month without pitching. This rotation was sketchy at the end, Wright, Pomegranate and Eddie are not trustworthy as #3s for me. The first two just came out of nowhere and never thrown that much innings, ditto with Eddie. Sale is a top 3 starter, I'll gladly have that for Kopech and company for the next 3 year. Kopech might not even make his debut in that time.

 

Don't get me wrong, I am thrilled that we have Sale. I just don't think we needed him. I think we would have been favorites to win the division either way.

 

As far as winning the division goes, I do believe the Sox are the favorites. But I caution anyone who thinks we are going to run away with the division or that it will be a walk in the park. It's baseball and things are never that easy, especially in our division.

[Kimmi]

Even with Toronto losing Edwin Encarnacion, no AL East club lost a player who posted the .315/.401/.620/1.021, OPS+ 162 line of David Ortiz last year. Like last offseason the Red Sox made a high-profile splash with the acquisition of an "ace" starter but also lost Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Clay Buchholz.

 

The Red Sox are in a position to repeat as AL East champs but I question whether the outlook is much brighter.

 

Don't rain on our parade Harmony.

 

Our offense outscored our closest AL competitor by 100 runs. Losing Ortiz will take a bit of a toll on our offense, but it's a toll that we can afford. Our rotation improved with the acquisition of Sale. Our pen will be fine. (Again, I'm not feeling the concern over it.)

 

Our 3 year outlook is very bright. It was already quite bright before the offseason started.

[harmony]

Don't rain on our parade Harmony.

 

Our offense outscored our closest AL competitor by 100 runs. Losing Ortiz will take a bit of a toll on our offense, but it's a toll that we can afford. Our rotation improved with the acquisition of Sale. Our pen will be fine. (Again, I'm not feeling the concern over it.)

 

Our 3 year outlook is very bright. It was already quite bright before the offseason started.

Indeed the Red Sox last year scored 101 more runs than they closest American League rival, the Cleveland Guardians (who this offseason added Edwin Encarnacion while the Sox lost David Ortiz).

 

The previous year the Blue Jays scored 127 more runs than their closest American League rival, the New York Yankees. Without losing a David Ortiz-caliber hitter, the Blue Jays in 2016 fell to fifth in the league in scoring.

 

In 2016 the Red Sox received stellar performances from Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley, who posted fWAR pf 7.8, 5.2, 4.8 and 4.7, respectively. These are four great players but I doubt more than one will match or exceed his 2016 fWAR (and the current Steamer, ZiPS and FanGraphs Depth Charts projections support that). Few Red Sox players are projected to regress upward.

 

The Red Sox deserve to be in the conversation of American League favorites but I'm unconvinced that the Sox have made a net improvement over the 2016 AL East champs.

[moonslav59]

Even with Toronto losing Edwin Encarnacion, no AL East club lost a player who posted the .315/.401/.620/1.021, OPS+ 162 line of David Ortiz last year. Like last offseason the Red Sox made a high-profile splash with the acquisition of an "ace" starter but also lost Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Clay Buchholz.

 

The Red Sox are in a position to repeat as AL East champs but I question whether the outlook is much brighter.

 

We added Sale, Thornburg and Moreland not just "an ace".