A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Coupled with the $84mill still owed to Verlander over the next three seasons, and that is an INSANE $300 million to two aging players who are most definitely NOT going to repeat their 2016 seasons until their respective free agencies.

 

You're probably right about Cabrera but Verlander is a good bet to keep returning value over the next 3 years.

 

I know their salaries are crazy but we're talking about 2 of the best players in baseball. The Tigers could probably trade Verlander for something decent if they really wanted to.

 

I certainly get your point, but I don't see contracts like these as real disasters because the players are producing. It's the ones where you're paying guys a lot for nothing that are the real killers IMO.

[Kimmi]

Me too.

 

Cherington's "rebuilding" strategy involved the Great Reset Button trade, which then only took slightly over 13 months to lead to a title. He also didn't deal Lester and Lackey for prospects and instead focused on Major Leaguers. That's not building a sustainable farm. He did sign a lot of free agents, including Uehara, Napoli, Drew, Victorino, Dempster, Sandoval, Hanley, etc.

 

Dombrowski's method of garnering stability was to sign Verlander and Cabrera to such cumbersome deals, the Tigers are actually trying to work in a rebuilding period right now...

 

I know that a lot of people did not agree with trading Lester and Lackey for major league players. Ben was attempting to keep the team competitive while rebuilding, which is no easy task.

 

I was not at all unhappy with the Lackey trade, though it looks terrible in hindsight.

[Bellhorn04]

I know that a lot of people did not agree with trading Lester and Lackey for major league players. Ben was attempting to keep the team competitive while rebuilding, which is no easy task.

 

That may have been the whole problem in a nutshell. It was a mishmash approach. We were a rebuilding team with a huge payroll.

[Kimmi]

Now you're changing the argument. DD didn't trade away Betts, Bogaerts or Bradley. He deserves some credit for that. He was almost certainly asked for these guys when talking to other teams about starting pitchers.

 

Dombrowski deserves his share of the credit. He has added some very good players to our team and he has kept our young core intact.

 

What I don't agree with is those that praise Dombrowski for getting us back into the playoffs while at the same time criticizing Ben for doing a terrible job. The team got back into the playoffs because of the team that Ben and Theo put together. Dombrowski has reaped the benefits of their work. Even the guys that Dombrowski added were only possible largely because of the prospects and cost-controlled players that were already in place.

[Bellhorn04]

What I don't agree with is those that praise Dombrowski for getting us back into the playoffs while at the same time criticizing Ben for doing a terrible job. The team got back into the playoffs because of the team that Ben and Theo put together. Dombrowski has reaped the benefits of their work. Even the guys that Dombrowski added were only possible largely because of the prospects and cost-controlled players that were already in place.

 

Dombrowski came into a favorable situation, no doubt about that.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski came into a favorable situation, no doubt about that.

 

Yes, the Sox were in a favorable situation after 2015. That's why some of us are not as down on BC as others.

[moonslav59]

Here's an updated scouting report on Jason Groome...

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/groome-jason.htm

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, the Sox were in a favorable situation after 2015. That's why some of us are not as down on BC as others.

 

Understood. I was not a Ben hater but I was certainly disappointed with the 2015 season in particular and what he did with the pitching staff.

 

And even though the team was in a favorable position after 2015 one could still question how much of that was attributable to Ben and how much was attributable to Theo Epstein and John Henry. Ben certainly benefitted from having a fat budget to work with. Not many teams could afford to invest 130+ million dollars in guys like Castillo and Moncada who had never played major league ball.

 

Yes, the debate about Ben could (and probably will) go on forever...

[Dojji]

Dombrowski came into a favorable situation, no doubt about that.

 

So did BC. A large portion of that farm system was built up in the 2011 draft.

[Bellhorn04]

So did BC. A large portion of that farm system was built up in the 2011 draft.

 

Exactly so.

[moonslav59]

Understood. I was not a Ben hater but I was certainly disappointed with the 2015 season in particular and what he did with the pitching staff.

 

And even though the team was in a favorable position after 2015 one could still question how much of that was attributable to Ben and how much was attributable to Theo Epstein and John Henry. Ben certainly benefitted from having a fat budget to work with. Not many teams could afford to invest 130+ million dollars in guys like Castillo and Moncada who had never played major league ball.

 

Yes, the debate about Ben could (and probably will) go on forever...

 

The "fat budget" actually did not help as much as one might expect. Yes, Vic & Napoli worked for one year, and Moncada helped us gain Sale, but most of BC's big spending was a failure. I was against the HanRam & Pablo signings, but both did way worse than expected in 2015. It's tough for GM's since they are always judged in hindsight, but I do feel that despite the bad signings, BC left the team in way better shape than Theo did. I realize many of the best players on BC's team given to DD were Theo's players, but he avoided trading them for players like Hamel. Had he done so, maybe he'd still be around, but I things would be very different.

 

[moonslav59]

So did BC. A large portion of that farm system was built up in the 2011 draft.

 

Yes, the same draft that was a major result of letting Beltre and VMart walk- something Theo was highly criticized for doing.

 

We got Barnes & Owens for VMart and Swihart & JBJ for Beltre. We got Betts in the 5th round. I believe Theo also got Margot in the international market that summer.

 

Had BC traded Bogey and/or Betts for Hamel, where would we be right now? Hamel has done very well, but at a high financial cost.

[moonslav59]

According to soxprospects.com, here is what Ben had to start with...

 

1 Will Middlebrooks 1 Will Middlebrooks 1 Xander Bogaerts

2 Anthony Ranaudo 2 Matt Barnes 2 Matt Barnes

3 Xander Bogaerts 3 Xander Bogaerts 3 Jackie Bradley

4 Jose Iglesias 4 Jackie Bradley 4 Allen Webster

5 Ryan Lavarnway 5 Jose Iglesias 5 Bryce Brentz

6 Ryan Kalish 6 Ryan Lavarnway 6 Garin Cecchini

7 Matt Barnes 7 Bryce Brentz 7 Blake Swihart

8 Bryce Brentz 8 Brandon Jacobs 8 Henry Owens

9 Brandon Jacobs 9 Ryan Kalish 9 Jose Iglesias

10 Blake Swihart 10 Blake Swihart 10 Drake Britton

11 Sean Coyle 11 Garin Cecchini 11 Brandon Workman

12 Garin Cecchini 12 Anthony Ranaudo 12 Deven Marrero

13 Felix Doubront 13 Junichi Tazawa 13 Brian Johnson

14 Alex Wilson 14 Brandon Workman 14 Alex Wilson

15 Drake Britton 15 Alex Wilson 15 Anthony Ranaudo

16 Kolbrin Vitek 16 Henry Owens 16 Keury De La Cruz

17 Stolmy Pimentel 17 Stolmy Pimentel 17 Brandon Jacobs

18 Oscar Tejeda 18Drake Britton 18Jose Vinicio

19 Jackie Bradley 19Jose Vinicio 19Stolmy Pimentel

20 Henry Owens

 

Here's what DD had to start with...

 

1 Blake Swihart 1 Eduardo Rodriguez 1 Yoan Moncada

2 Yoan Moncada 2 Yoan Moncada 2 Rafael Devers

3 Henry Owens 3 Rafael Devers 3 Anderson Espinoza

4 Manuel Margot 4 Manuel Margot 4 Manuel Margot

5 Rafael Devers 5 Brian Johnson 5 Andrew Benintendi

6 Eduardo Rodriguez 6 Henry Owens 6 Javier Guerra

7 Brian Johnson 7 Andrew Benintendi 7 Michael Kopech

8 Matt Barnes 8 Michael Kopech 8 Brian Johnson

9 Michael Chavis 9 Javier Guerra 9 Sam Travis

10 Michael Kopech 10 Deven Marrero 10 Deven Marrero

11 Deven Marrero 11 Anderson Espinoza 11 Michael Chavis

12 Garin Cecchini 12 Trey Ball 12 Luis Alexander Basabe

13 Trey Ball 13 Michael Chavis 13 Logan Allen

14 Edwin Escobar 14 Pat Light 14 Trey Ball

15 Sean Coyle 15 Sam Travis 15 Wendell Rijo

16 Javier Guerra 16 Travis Shaw 16 Nick Longhi

17 Sam Travis 17 Ty Buttrey 17 Marco Hernandez

18 Wendell Rijo 18 Mauricio Dubon 18 Mauricio Dubon

19 Travis Shaw 19 Teddy Stankiewicz 19 Pat Light

20 Teddy Stankiewicz 20 Wendell Rijo 20 Teddy Stankiewicz

[Nick]

My head is spinning from BC/DD debate. Why don't we just give all the credit to Theo and be done with it?

 

It's because of Pablo signing and lack of developing starting pitching (and had to spend $31M on Price) that prevented Sox from signing Encarnacion. For those complaining about trading away Lackey, he was not going to play for Boston at league minimum. Not sure why we keep rehashing that history. Sure we could've played chicken and forced him to retire but not sure what that would have accomplished. (OK we wouldn't be paying Craig, you got me).

 

With $200M at our disposal, there's no reason why we shouldn't be competing for playoffs every year.

[Nick]

Beginning with 1991 season, Athlanta Braves won the division 14 out of 15 seasons, clearly a remarkable feat. But they only won 1 world series.

 

Many think the cost of Sale'a trade was excessive. Essentially we completed the gutting of our farm system. My personal preference is to go for it.

 

In the end, only the championships matter. My guess is DD will add another piece after the 2017 season when the tax penalty is reset for the Sox. He will do everything in his power to win the big one.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

There is really no hard evidence that lackey would have retired rather than play that one more year worth us. Regardless, he wasn't a long term solution like Lester of Scherzer would have been.

 

BC went for offense for 2015, hoping his pitching would be good enough to get us to the prime pitching FA market of 2016. Had Pablo, HanRam and Masterson done better, maybe BC would still be here for the big changes that were to come before the 2016 season:

 

1) The ban on signing aging pitchers to long term contracts

 

2) The trading away of top prospects for established stars

 

It's something to talk about when bored, so the debate goes on and on...

[S5Dewey]

There is really no hard evidence that lackey would have retired rather than play that one more year worth us. Regardless, he wasn't a long term solution like Lester of Scherzer would have been.

 

BC went for offense for 2015, hoping his pitching would be good enough to get us to the prime pitching FA market of 2016. Had Pablo, HanRam and Masterson done better, maybe BC would still be here for the big changes that were to come before the 2016 season:

 

1) The ban on signing aging pitchers to long term contracts

 

2) The trading away of top prospects for established stars

 

It's something to talk about when bored, so the debate goes on and on...

 

Ya.. was BC the one who masterminded the plan of telling the fans that a rotation of Porcello, Masterson, Buchholz, Miley and Joe Kelley would be good enough ? I hate it when someone pisses on my shoes and tells me that it's raining.

[Bellhorn04]

There is really no hard evidence that lackey would have retired rather than play that one more year worth us. Regardless, he wasn't a long term solution like Lester of Scherzer would have been.

 

BC went for offense for 2015, hoping his pitching would be good enough to get us to the prime pitching FA market of 2016. Had Pablo, HanRam and Masterson done better, maybe BC would still be here for the big changes that were to come before the 2016 season:

 

1) The ban on signing aging pitchers to long term contracts

 

2) The trading away of top prospects for established stars

 

It's something to talk about when bored, so the debate goes on and on...

 

That's right, it's just something to talk about, and everyone is entitled to their opinions.

[moonslav59]

Ya.. was BC the one who masterminded the plan of telling the fans that a rotation of Porcello, Masterson, Buchholz, Miley and Joe Kelley would be good enough ? I hate it when someone pisses on my shoes and tells me that it's raining.

 

It could have been good enough to get us to the playoffs had Porcello been the 2016 one not the 2015 one, Buch stayed healthy and our our new additions on offense not tanked.

 

I hated that rotation, and that was a major reason I gagged at the Masterson signing. We needed 2 aces and signed a 5th starter instead. I think we finished about 20th in pitching WAR in 2015, but we did have one of the worst BAbip that year against us.

 

Edited January 23, 2017 by moonslav59

[a700hitter]

My head is spinning from BC/DD debate. Why don't we just give all the credit to Theo and be done with it?

 

Yep, enough is enough. Arguing over which overpaid substandard businessman did a better or worse job can bore one to tears. There has been plenty of good news for the Red Sox this offseason. Getting Sale in a trade is one of those blockbusters that you see once in a decade or more for the Red Sox and people are still bitching and moaning.

[cp176]

Yep, enough is enough. Arguing over which overpaid substandard businessman did a better or worse job can bore one to tears. There has been plenty of good news for the Red Sox this offseason. Getting Sale in a trade is one of those blockbusters that you see once in a decade or more for the Red Sox and people are still bitching and moaning.

 

I don't remember the names particularly of past GM's. I really don't care very much about them. My concern as a fan is this team going forward. I like the moves that have been made.

[moonslav59]

We should be damn good for 3-4 maybe 5 years for sure. It's hard to debate that.

 

The concern about what comes afterwards is justified.

 

I'm glad we are looking to reset the luxury tax as we enter into the new era of the CBA that restricts big spenders even more than before.

 

I'm glad the positions in need also have the best three prospects remaining (3B- Devers, 1B- Travis, P- Groome).

 

I'm glad we lose Pablo's salary at about the time we need to extend our top young players.

 

I'm super glad we got Sale.

 

I'm just worried about rebuilding the farm with low draft picks and a more restrictive international signing system.

[mvp 78]

I don't remember the names particularly of past GM's. I really don't care very much about them. My concern as a fan is this team going forward. I like the moves that have been made.

 

Lou Gorman was a REAL baseball man, not like these namby pambies these days.

[cp176]

Lou Gorman was a REAL baseball man, not like these namby pambies these days.

 

Lou Albano?

[Spudboy]

Bobby Heenan.

[cp176]

Bruno Samartino

[moonslav59]

There really is absolutely nothing to talk about, is there?

[oldtimer]

There really is absolutely nothing to talk about, is there?

 

That doesn't seem to stop you!

[moonslav59]

News from soxprospects.com...

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/01/fallwinter-league-roundup-castillo_23.html

 

Rusney Castillo, who has been starting in left field, has been a key factor in Caguas' success as he went 8 for 21 in five games during the week, swatting two doubles and two home runs. Christian Vazquez has been similarly impressive for Santurce, as he is coming off a 7-for-15 week which saw him knock two doubles, a triple, and two walks.

 

Hanley Ramirez played in one game this week, going 0 for 2 with two walks as the designated hitter ...

 

Fernando Abad also only appeared once this week, failing to record an out while allowing three runs on two hits and a walk...

[moonslav59]

That doesn't seem to stop you!

 

Not much does.