A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

MLBTR suggests Workman may be a non-tender candidate.

[S5Dewey]

What ever happened to Workman?

 

It's a shame.

 

It surprises me that Workman may be non-tendered. He had TJ surgery and hasn't pitched since so they don't know what they have in him yet.

[moonslav59]

What are your views on these projected PA & OPS numbers for 2017 as compared to 2016?

 

Player 2017 OPS/PA 2016 OPS/PA

 

Betts .925/720 .897/730

HRam .850/620 .866/620

Pedey .800/685 .825/698

J.B.Jr. .825/650 .835/.636

Bogey .850/700 .802/719

A Beni .785/550 .835/118

Young .825/450 .850/227

Pablo .725/400 7 PAs

Shaw .675/250 .726/530

S Leon .725/400 .845/283

C Vaz .650/200 .585/184

B Holt .700/300 .705/324

Moncada .775.200 20 PAs

Hrndz .725/200 .730/56

Swihart .725/100 .720/74

 

Gone:

A Hill .577/137

Hanigan .468/113

Brentz .690/64

Rutledge .733/56

Holaday .500/35

 

[a700hitter]

It surprises me that Workman may be non-tendered. He had TJ surgery and hasn't pitched since so they don't know what they have in him yet.

Or maybe they do know.

[moonslav59]

What about next year's pitching?

 

We lose:

1.52 Ziegler 30 IP

3.45 Uehara 47 IP

3.77 Layne 29 IP

4.17 Tazawa 50 IP

6.75 O'Sullivan 21 IP (4 GS)

That's about 180 IP total. If you add Light, Cuevas, LaMarre and Noe ramirez, we may be replacing about 200 IP. I look for more IP from Pomeranz, ERod, Wright & Kelly.

 

Pitcher ERA/IP projected ERA/IP 2016

230 Price 3.25 3.99/230

225 Porcello 3.35 3.15/223

175 Rodriguez 3.90 4.71/107

175 Wright 3.90 3.33/157

175 Pomeranz 4.00 3.32/171

150 Buchholz 3.90 4.78/139

 

55 Kimbrel 2.85 3.40/53

65 R Ross 3.25 3.25/55

65 Barnes 3.75 4.05/67

50 Kelly 3.85 5.18/40

40 Abad 3.90 3.66/47

40 Hembree 3.90 2.65/51

30 C Smith 3.00 2.2 IP

30 Scott 3.90 0.00/6

 

[moonslav59]

It surprises me that Workman may be non-tendered. He had TJ surgery and hasn't pitched since so they don't know what they have in him yet.

 

His arb number shouldn't be much more than the min salary, and he's got two options left, so unless we start acquiring more players, I think we have room to give him a look-see.

[Bellhorn04]

Re-signing Ziegler would be nice.

[moonslav59]

Re-signing Ziegler would be nice.

 

He'd be a great signing. Probably not too costly either.

 

I wouldn't mind bringing Uehara back too.

[Kimmi]

The problem at 3B is that we do have solutions that need to be tried before we get aggressive and/or desperate. 3B is the sort of situation that you need to wait and maybe deal with in midseason when there's less confusion about what you have. If we can avoid making a move there and save our ammunition (prospects, roster space, cap space) for more pressing needs, that becomes the right play.

 

I very much agree with this. It's really difficult to know how much of a need we have at 3B right now. Waiting until midseason makes a lot of sense.

[moonslav59]

I very much agree with this. It's really difficult to know how much of a need we have at 3B right now. Waiting until midseason makes a lot of sense.

 

We may get fooled again, if Shaw hits well for the first two months again, then falls off a cliff again.

[Kimmi]

We may get fooled again, if Shaw hits well for the first two months again, then falls off a cliff again.

 

That is true enough, but at least we should have a better idea of what Pablo can give us and whether Moncada will be ready and able to handle 3B by then.

 

Right now there are a ton of question marks at that position.

[moonslav59]

That is true enough, but at least we should have a better idea of what Pablo can give us and whether Moncada will be ready and able to handle 3B by then.

 

Right now there are a ton of question marks at that position.

 

I tend to agree, but with tight money, 3B is not going to be a place we spend to upgrade anyways.

[notin]

It surprises me that Workman may be non-tendered. He had TJ surgery and hasn't pitched since so they don't know what they have in him yet.

 

Well, they know they have someone who hasn't pitched since 2014.

 

I'd be surprised if they offered him arbitration. But I wouldn't be surprised if they non-tendered him and brought him back on a minor league deal. As he hasn't pitched in so long, it's not like exposing him to free agency will guarantee a lot of better offers from other teams...

[moonslav59]

Well, they know they have someone who hasn't pitched since 2014.

 

I'd be surprised if they offered him arbitration. But I wouldn't be surprised if they non-tendered him and brought him back on a minor league deal. As he hasn't pitched in so long, it's not like exposing him to free agency will guarantee a lot of better offers from other teams...

 

What's he going to make in arb? $600K?

 

That's barely more than than the minimum.

[S5Dewey]

What's he going to make in arb? $600K?

 

That's barely more than than the minimum.

 

At that price it would seem to make more sense to go to arb with him rather than risk letting someone else get him.

[notin]

What's he going to make in arb? $600K?

 

That's barely more than than the minimum.

 

But if the Sox re-sign him to a minor league deal, they get back a 40-man roster spot.

 

Really Workman is in the same price range, talent and experience level as a lot of other pitchers who are or will be free agents very soon. There is no rush to act here...

[notin]

At that price it would seem to make more sense to go to arb with him rather than risk letting someone else get him.

 

There really isn't all that much risk. Not many pitchers who missed all of 2015 are going to grab the attention of other teams, and the ones who do will be pitchers with more talent and experience than Brandon Workman.

 

While the Sox do need AAA pitching depth, Brandon Workman himself may not be a necessity. And he isn't even gone yet, either...

[moonslav59]

No, there's no rush, but there's no 40 man roster issues either. Not even close.

 

I can think of 3-4 guys we could trade or DFA who have less of a chance of being significant than Workman.

 

1st on my list is Brenz.

 

Abad and Elias are out of options- one of them will be gone.

 

One or two from Jerez, Marrero & Noe Ramires would hardly be missed.

 

We have no serious rule 5 issues either.

[moonslav59]

There really isn't all that much risk. Not many pitchers who missed all of 2015 are going to grab the attention of other teams, and the ones who do will be pitchers with more talent and experience than Brandon Workman.

 

While the Sox do need AAA pitching depth, Brandon Workman himself may not be a necessity. And he isn't even gone yet, either...

 

There are plenty of Workmans out there. I won't complain, if he bolts.

[Kimmi]

No, there's no rush, but there's no 40 man roster issues either. Not even close.

 

I can think of 3-4 guys we could trade or DFA who have less of a chance of being significant than Workman.

 

1st on my list is Brenz.

 

Abad and Elias are out of options- one of them will be gone.

 

One or two from Jerez, Marrero & Noe Ramires would hardly be missed.

 

We have no serious rule 5 issues either.

 

Last I read, Elias was pitching pretty well in whatever fall league he's pitching in. I can't see the Sox getting rid of him.

[notin]

Last I read, Elias was pitching pretty well in whatever fall league he's pitching in. I can't see the Sox getting rid of him.

 

On the other hand, there may be a bullpen crunch.

 

Kimbrel, Kelly, and Barnes have spots. Barring injuries, one of the six starters (Wright?) takes a fourth. If the Sox add two relievers - and other than a DH, what else will they add? - that leaves one bullpen slot for Abad, Ross, Elias and Hembree. None can be demoted without clearing waivers.

 

Even if the Sox only add one reliever, that probably means Abad and Ross grab the last two spots. Elias' chances of making the Sox might be too dependent on the health of everyone else. Ditto Hembree...

[moonslav59]

Last I read, Elias was pitching pretty well in whatever fall league he's pitching in. I can't see the Sox getting rid of him.

 

He has to be on the 25 man roster.

 

There's not enough room for him and Abad.

 

One will be traded, unless others suck or are injured or traded.

[Nick]

He has to be on the 25 man roster.

 

There's not enough room for him and Abad.

 

One will be traded, unless others suck or are injured or traded.

 

With no additions, who would be your eight?

 

Kimbrel, Kelly, Smith, Ross, Robby Scott, Abad, Hembree, Elias, Wright/Buch/Pomeranz

Edited December 3, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

With no additions, who would be your eight?

 

Kimbrel, Kelly, Smith, Ross, Robby Scott, Abad, Hembree, Elias, Wright/Buch/Pomeranz

 

Well, with Smith out until maybe July, we can hold off deciding on the last slot. Also, we usually go with 12 pitchers not 13, so it will likely be 7 RP'ers.

 

For arguments sake, I'll say our starters are Porcello, Price, ERod, Wright and Pomeranz. Buch is the 6th starter and long man. That's 6 of the 12.

 

Closer: Kimbrel

RP2: Kelly (Smith by maybe June or July)

RP3: Ross

RP4: Barnes

RP5: Hembree (0 options)

RP6: Abad (0 options)

 

Others:

Owens

Johnson

Kopech (maybe by July/August)

Elias (0 options)

Scott

Workman

N Ramirez

Jerez

Martin

 

 

[moonslav59]

I'd prefer signing at least one quality RP'er and trading 2 from Abad, Elias and Hembree (all with no options left).

[notin]

With no additions, who would be your eight?

 

Kimbrel, Kelly, Smith, Ross, Robby Scott, Abad, Hembree, Elias, Wright/Buch/Pomeranz

 

No Barnes?

[Nick]

No Barnes?

 

Good catch....he should be in there. I also like Scott more than Abad.

 

My main point is that we don't really need two NEW relievers. I think we can manage with one. Especially now that we are budget conscious.

[Kimmi]

On the other hand, there may be a bullpen crunch.

 

Kimbrel, Kelly, and Barnes have spots. Barring injuries, one of the six starters (Wright?) takes a fourth. If the Sox add two relievers - and other than a DH, what else will they add? - that leaves one bullpen slot for Abad, Ross, Elias and Hembree. None can be demoted without clearing waivers.

 

Even if the Sox only add one reliever, that probably means Abad and Ross grab the last two spots. Elias' chances of making the Sox might be too dependent on the health of everyone else. Ditto Hembree...

 

Fair enough point about the roster crunch.

 

I may be wrong, but I just can't see the Sox getting rid of Elias who could be a solid back end starter for us. Or maybe it's just me hoping that the Sox don't get rid of him.

 

As the saying goes, these things have a way of working themselves out. As unfair as it might be, someone like Barnes might start the season in AAA because he has options remaining.

[Nick]

Fair enough point about the roster crunch.

 

I may be wrong, but I just can't see the Sox getting rid of Elias who could be a solid back end starter for us. Or maybe it's just me hoping that the Sox don't get rid of him.

 

As the saying goes, these things have a way of working themselves out. As unfair as it might be, someone like Barnes might start the season in AAA because he has options remaining.

 

I agree on Elias. Name of the game is being able to replace someone like Porcello when he's due $30M in 3 years. We can't keep all the good players. It's not possible. We've already shot our load with Price. And we will pay big for retaining Betts (I would give him $300M over 10 years first chance I get).

 

You have to pick and choose. If we keep Buchholtz, then we can't sign someone like Chapman. I would still consider trading away Xander before Bradley Jr. SS is a defensive position. You can find .250 hitting slick defenders. Bradley Jr is an elite center fielder that has some pop. We won't be able to keep 2 Boras clients. Count on it.

 

If the goal is to win the world series, Champman would become more valuable than Buchholtz. I'd roll the dice on depleting starters. Hope for the best with Porcello, Price, E Rod, Wright and Pomeranz. Big question mark is can we protect the lead from innings 6-8?

Edited December 3, 2016 by Nick

[Kimmi]

I agree on Elias. Name of the game is being able to replace someone like Porcello when he's due $30M in 3 years. We can't keep all the good players. It's not possible. We've already shot our load with Price. And we will pay big for retaining Betts (I would give him $300M over 10 years first chance I get).

 

You have to pick and choose. If we keep Buchholtz, then we can't sign someone like Chapman. I would still consider trading away Xander before Bradley Jr. SS is a defensive position. You can find .250 hitting slick defenders. Bradley Jr is an elite center fielder that has some pop. We won't be able to keep 2 Boras clients. Count on it.

 

If the goal is to win the world series, Champman would become more valuable than Buchholtz. I'd roll the dice on depleting starters. Hope for the best with Porcello, Price, E Rod, Wright and Pomeranz. Big question mark is can we protect the lead from innings 6-8?

 

I think my biggest concern about the team is the depth of the starting rotation. I feel pretty good about Porcello, Price, ERod, Pomeranz, and Wright/Buchholz as our starting five, but what happens in case of injury or underperformance? ERod pitching in the World Baseball Classic does nothing to allay my concerns.

 

Trading Buchholz or Elias would only add to my concerns.

 

There's a long way to go in this offseason (unfortunately), so things may change, but right now I'm not in any hurry to trade any of our starting pitchers or potential starting pitchers for non-starters. Unless it's a deal that blows us away, of course.