Looking ahead to 2017

[moonslav59]

EbenezerBatflip

9:30 Expectations for Benintendi in 2017? Is he really the left handed Mookie?

Paul Swydan

9:30 Left-handed Mookie might be a bit much, but I expect him to be a 3-4 WAR player

 

If we could get a 4 from Beni in 2017, we'd be looking very good.

[Dojji]

Personally I expect a sophomore slump from Benintendi.

[moonslav59]

Personally I expect a sophomore slump from Benintendi.

 

While repeating .835 might be difficult, the 113 PA sample size was pretty small, so I'm not sure 2016 should count as his "freshman year" to call 2017 as a "sophomore year". Plus, his 2016 PAs were spread out due to the injury.

 

He had a 0.6 WAR in 34 games, so if you project that to 150 games, he'd have been around 2.8 or 2.9. Since 4 of those games were as a late inning replacement, maybe he'd project to 3.0.

 

[harmony]

While repeating .835 might be difficult, the 113 PA sample size was pretty small, so I'm not sure 2016 should count as his "freshman year" to call 2017 as a "sophomore year". Plus, his 2016 PAs were spread out due to the injury.

 

He had a 0.6 WAR in 34 games, so if you project that to 150 games, he'd have been around 2.8 or 2.9. Since 4 of those games were as a late inning replacement, maybe he'd project to 3.0.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts projects Andrew Benintendi with a 2017 WAR of 1.6. in 560 plate appearances covering 133 games:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17901&position=OF

 

... with the Steamer projection coming in slightly lower.

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs Depth Charts projects Andrew Benintendi with a 2017 WAR of 1.6. in 560 plate appearances covering 133 games:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17901&position=OF

 

... with the Steamer projection coming in slightly lower.

 

Certainly 1.6 is a safe number, but I think 2.0 to 3.0 will be where he ends up, barring injury.

[Hugh2]

FanGraphs Depth Charts projects Andrew Benintendi with a 2017 WAR of 1.6. in 560 plate appearances covering 133 games:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17901&position=OF

 

... with the Steamer projection coming in slightly lower.

 

How often are projections right for rookies with very high upside? I doubt they accurately predicted the value Bogaerts would provide in 2015, or the value Betts would in his rookie year. Projections go on track record and unfortunately guys like Benentendi have little. The reality is there could be a lot more volatility in the range of outcomes because there is less certainty.

 

This works both ways, he could easily have a sophomore slump and not adjust to pitchers adjusting to him a la Bogaerts 2014. But he could just as easily become an all star caliber player with a WAR of 4 or more.

[moonslav59]

How often are projections right for rookies with very high upside? I doubt they accurately predicted the value Bogaerts would provide in 2015, or the value Betts would in his rookie year. Projections go on track record and unfortunately guys like Benentendi have little. The reality is there could be a lot more volatility in the range of outcomes because there is less certainty.

 

This works both ways, he could easily have a sophomore slump and not adjust to pitchers adjusting to him a la Bogaerts 2014. But he could just as easily become an all star caliber player with a WAR of 4 or more.

 

They're not even very close on projecting vets.

[Hugh2]

They're not even very close on projecting vets.

 

Well, that's because of the unexpected, or when a player hits a serious decline. Odds are you can project what Mike Trout will do next year but he could get injured or fall off a cliff. Now that's probably not likely for a player his age but someone like Robinson Cano is much more likely at 33. Projections take into account a ton of information and weigh countless scenarios in reality a lot can go right or wrong.

 

Why many projections are completely off, I'd be willing to bet the sum of all projections is eerily close to actual production. Here's some food for thought, remember the classic pennies in the jar guessing game? research has shown that the sum of all guesses are almost always closer than any one guess. Projections are a nice guideline, but so much can go right or wrong when looking at just one player.

[harmony]

Certainly 1.6 is a safe number, but I think 2.0 to 3.0 will be where he ends up, barring injury.

Andrew Benintendi was the 2016 version of Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber the previous season because each made his MLB debut roughly a year after being a Top 10 draft pick out of college.

 

Here are their MLB slash lines from their debut years:

 

AB DOB 7-6-94 2016 118 PA, .295/.359/.476/.835. OPS+ 117, 0.6 fWAR

MC DOB 3-1-93 2015 194 PA, .270/.335/.506/.841, OPS+ 126, 2.1 fWAR

KS DOB 3-5-93 2015 283 PA, .246/.355/.487/.842, OPS+ 130, 1.9 fWAR

 

Here are the second-year slash lines for Conforto and Schwarber:

 

MC 2016 348 PA, .220/.310/.414/.725, OPS+ 92, 1.3 fWAR

KS 2016 5 PA, .000/.200/.000/.200, OPS+ -39, -0.1 fWAR

[Emp9]

Personally I expect a sophomore slump from Benintendi.

 

34 games under his belt and he's already a sophomore?

[moonslav59]

Well, that's because of the unexpected, or when a player hits a serious decline. Odds are you can project what Mike Trout will do next year but he could get injured or fall off a cliff. Now that's probably not likely for a player his age but someone like Robinson Cano is much more likely at 33. Projections take into account a ton of information and weigh countless scenarios in reality a lot can go right or wrong.

 

Why many projections are completely off, I'd be willing to bet the sum of all projections is eerily close to actual production. Here's some food for thought, remember the classic pennies in the jar guessing game? research has shown that the sum of all guesses are almost always closer than any one guess. Projections are a nice guideline, but so much can go right or wrong when looking at just one player.

 

They almost always project low.

 

Take Trout as an example; he's been over 9.0 in 4 of the last 5 years, but steamers has him at 8.8 next year.

 

Mookie Betts has not even reached prime. He was at 7.8 this year. They have him at 5.5 next year.

 

They may turn out right, but they almost always guess low on great players.

 

They may guess high on guys like Pablo at +0.9.

[moonslav59]

Andrew Benintendi was the 2016 version of Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber the previous season because each made his MLB debut roughly a year after being a Top 10 draft pick out of college.

 

Here are their MLB slash lines from their debut years:

 

AB DOB 7-6-94 2016 118 PA, .295/.359/.476/.835. OPS+ 117, 0.6 fWAR

MC DOB 3-1-93 2015 194 PA, .270/.335/.506/.841, OPS+ 126, 2.1 fWAR

KS DOB 3-5-93 2015 283 PA, .246/.355/.487/.842, OPS+ 130, 1.9 fWAR

 

Here are the second-year slash lines for Conforto and Schwarber:

 

MC 2016 348 PA, .220/.310/.414/.725, OPS+ 92, 1.3 fWAR

KS 2016 5 PA, .000/.200/.000/.200, OPS+ -39, -0.1 fWAR

 

Just because their time tables are similar, doesn't mean AB will follow their example. Yes, he could, but I see no reason to think the comps you came up with have any significance with AB's projection. Schwarber got hurt, so what's he even in this comp for?

[moonslav59]

34 games under his belt and he's already a sophomore?

 

I see 2017 as Beni's rookie (freshman) year.

[Bellhorn04]

KS 2016 5 PA, .000/.200/.000/.200, OPS+ -39, -0.1 fWAR

 

Was this really necessary LOL

 

His World Series line of 412/500/471 in 20 PA would have been more meaningful...

[harmony]

Just because their time tables are similar, doesn't mean AB will follow their example. Yes, he could, but I see no reason to think the comps you came up with have any significance with AB's projection. Schwarber got hurt, so what's he even in this comp for?

We all hope Andrew Benintendi remains healthy but a wide variety of outcomes are possible.

 

On what do you base your stated projections?

[harmony]

They almost always project low.

 

Take Trout as an example; he's been over 9.0 in 4 of the last 5 years, but steamers has him at 8.8 next year.

 

Mookie Betts has not even reached prime. He was at 7.8 this year. They have him at 5.5 next year.

 

They may turn out right, but they almost always guess low on great players.

 

They may guess high on guys like Pablo at +0.9.

The projections almost always regress toward the mean ... in both directions.

[moonslav59]

We all hope Andrew Benintendi remains healthy but a wide variety of outcomes are possible.

 

On what do you base your stated projections?

 

What he has done over the last few years. I know it's not scientific. I know AB might end up below 1.0, but I'm expecting about 2.0 to 3.0, assuming he stay healthy- something that may be a stretch.

[moonslav59]

The projections almost always regress toward the mean ... in both directions.

 

Not in Trouts case (last 5 years).

[harmony]

Not in Trouts case (last 5 years).

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/regression/

 

Toward the mean of all players.

[notin]

Personally I expect a sophomore slump from Benintendi.

 

Followed by endless caterwauling from Sox fans about how disappointing he is, how he should have been traded when he had value, how he was never a real prospect like other teams have, and how he is yet another in a long line of Dox top prospects who flopped, like Lars Anderson, Tony Blanco and Steve Lomasney...

[a700hitter]

Followed by endless caterwauling from Sox fans about how disappointing he is, how he should have been traded when he had value, how he was never a real prospect like other teams have, and how he is yet another in a long line of Dox top prospects who flopped, like Lars Anderson, Tony Blanco and Steve Lomasney...

What a gloom and doomer. How can you stand being so miserable?

[notin]

What a gloom and doomer. How can you stand being so miserable?

 

So you think this board won't be rife with those verbatim complaints if Benintendi struggles?

[a700hitter]

So you think this board won't be rife with those verbatim complaints if Benintendi struggles?

I can't understand people that project misery. When misery comes I deal with it. I can do the gloom and doom thing.

 

Edit: And it is really strange to project the misery of others. But if it makes you happy. .. Different strokes.

[notin]

I can't understand people that project misery. When misery comes I deal with it. I can do the gloom and doom thing.

 

Edit: And it is really strange to project the misery of others. But if it makes you happy. .. Different strokes.

 

Not projecting misery. Projecting ignorance.

 

You must not have posted at BDC when we had fans who thought Betts was a complete flop because "real" prospects like Joey Gallo managed to hit a home run his first day...

[a700hitter]

Not projecting misery. Projecting ignorance.

 

You must not have posted at BDC when we had fans who thought Betts was a complete flop because "real" prospects like Joey Gallo managed to hit a home run his first day...

Projecting ignorance is the same as projecting misery. My mother used to call it borrowing trouble. You don't know if or when any of it will happen or who will do it, but you already have it happening. Like I said, I have enough problems dealing with unpleasantness and troubles when they happen. I don't look forward to them coming, especially when I am not sure that they will come.

[harmony]

Luxury tax threshold reportedly set at $195 million this year:

 

[notin]

Projecting ignorance is the same as projecting misery. My mother used to call it borrowing trouble. You don't know if or when any of it will happen or who will do it, but you already have it happening. Like I said, I have enough problems dealing with unpleasantness and troubles when they happen. I don't look forward to them coming, especially when I am not sure that they will come.

 

Technically, I'm "predicting," not projecting. They are not remotely the same. And this prediction is based on past experience, which actually makes it "learning."

 

Are you telling me you've never seen posts negating all the positivity of a Sox prospect before based solely on the fact that he wasn't an immediate success? Or just trying to look down on people?

[Spudboy]

Beni will be a star.

 

That is all.

[a700hitter]

Technically, I'm "predicting," not projecting. They are not remotely the same. And this prediction is based on past experience, which actually makes it "learning."

 

Are you telling me you've never seen posts negating all the positivity of a Sox prospect before based solely on the fact that he wasn't an immediate success? Or just trying to look down on people?

I wouldn't waste my time predicting or projecting that stuff. If it happens, it happens, and if it makes you happy good for you.

[a700hitter]

Beni will be a star.

 

That is all.

That's the spirit!