Looking ahead to 2017

[moonslav59]

"Listening" is a figure of speech. In reality, Pedroia has significantly greater value to the Red Sox organization than any other. Ideally for both sides, he'll finish his career here and see his number retired.

 

I don't disagree, and I would never want to trade the 2017 face of the franchise.

 

He's not going anywhere.

[mvp 78]

I don't disagree, and I would never want to trade the 2017 face of the franchise.

 

He's not going anywhere.

 

I wouldn't want to trade Mookie Betts either.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't want to trade Mookie Betts either.

 

He should be at the top of everyone's list of players not wanting to trade. There should be long space between him and the next guy (Beni? Bogey? JBJ? ERod?)

[Kimmi]

The optimist:

 

We'll have Beni, Pomeranz and Wright for a full season- not half or less than half..

 

We'll have Carson Smith all year.

 

Kelly, Barnes, Hembree and others may take a big step up.

 

Pre-prime guys like Betts, Bogey, JBJ could get even better.

 

Price should get better.

 

There's a chance Moncada or someone else has a significant year.

 

 

The Pessimist:

 

Papi is irreplacable, and we just got ousted in the first round.

 

Late season slumpings could be a sign of what to expect next year.

 

Players coming off "career years" could drop off.

 

We have other holes to fill besides Papi: Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa.

 

JF is not the best manager around.

 

 

I'm going with the optimist's point of view.

[Kimmi]

If you believe in WAR, losing Papi just cost us 5 wins and knocked us back to an 88 win team. I think that's about right. I think we do need another bat and making a play for EE is realistic. If his price tag is ridiculous they probably will go after Beltran. They wanted him at the trade deadline so there's obviously interest.

 

In addition to what others have said about Papi's replacement not being a replacement level player, our Pythagorean W-L record had us at 98 wins. Take away 3 wins from there and we're still a 95 win team.

 

My point is that I don't think we need to make that big splash move. We don't need to sign Encarnacion. Our team is pretty well set. A couple of tweaks or smaller moves here and there should be good enough.

 

Now, Dombrowski may very well make a big move. But I don't think it's necessary, even with the loss of Papi.

[jacksonianmarch]

JF is not the best manager around should be in the optimist side. The pessimist side is that he is the lovechild of Bobby Valentine and Grady Little and deserves public scorn and ridicule

[Bellhorn04]

In addition to what others have said about Papi's replacement not being a replacement level player, our Pythagorean W-L record had us at 98 wins. Take away 3 wins from there and we're still a 95 win team.

 

A 2 WAR DH is harder to find than a 2 WAR position player, though, because they only get half credit.

[moonslav59]

A 2 WAR DH is harder to find than a 2 WAR position player, though, because they only get half credit.

 

Much harder!

 

Only 4 teams had a team WAR above 2.0.

[TylerD]

JF is not the best manager around should be in the optimist side. The pessimist side is that he is the lovechild of Bobby Valentine and Grady Little and deserves public scorn and ridicule

 

Lol this.

I'm still fine with giving him another year. He has mad mistakes yes but I still think at the end of the day we don't find anyone better. We were a bad Porcello inning away from winning game one and taking a 1-0 lead and who knows what would have happened after.... Well we wold have lost with Price regardless but still. I think with the talent we have JF can take us to the playoffs again and hopefully make a run like the Jays are doing.

[bosoxmal]

I'm usually as optimistic about the next season as anyone. But I just think there are far too many weaknesses. And in some places we didn't expect. We are taking three LH hitters out of the lineup, not just one. The at bats of Leon and JBJ were not accidents, They have proven they can be pitched to. We almost have to get Encanarcion in order to have any chance at all. I think spring training will see more attention paid to Pablo, because 3B needs fixing. I see the real possibility that opening day will see,

 

Pablo, Bogie, Pedrois and Hanley around the infield, and

 

Swihart, Benintendi and Betts in the outfield, and

 

Vazquez behind the plate.

 

Someday tell me why the pitching will be better. Trades? They better not trade off their MVP candidate as some people have suggested here. That's probably the nuttiest thing they could do all winter!

Edited October 15, 2016 by bosoxmal

[moonslav59]

I'm usually as optimistic about the next season as anyone. But I just think there are far too many weaknesses. And in some places we didn't expect. We are taking three LH hitters out of the lineup, not just one. The at bats of Leon and JBJ were not accidents, They have proven they can be pitched to. We almost have to get Encanarcion in order to have any chance at all.

 

You do know EE bats RH'd, right?

 

I agree that we can expect Leon to not be a great hitter next year, but nothing is "proven" about JBJ's inability to adjust to what pitchers were doing to him to end the season.

 

How many times can you guys get tricked by small sample sizes?

 

I'm not saying we don't have to make up for papi's loss soemwhere and then some, but giving 4-5 years for a DH only could hurt us in other ways down the road.

 

So, this would be the line-up:

 

1) R Pedey

2) R Bogey

3) R Betts

4) R Encarnacion

5) R HanRam

6) L Bradley

7) R Young/L Beni

8) S Pablo/L Shaw

9) S Leon/ R Vaz/ S Swihart

 

We only faced 37 LH'd starters this year, if we signed EE, teams may never throw a lefty at us.

 

 

 

[TylerD]

I'm usually as optimistic about the next season as anyone. But I just think there are far too many weaknesses. And in some places we didn't expect. We are taking three LH hitters out of the lineup, not just one. The at bats of Leon and JBJ were not accidents, They have proven they can be pitched to. We almost have to get Encanarcion in order to have any chance at all.

 

You do know EE bats RH'd, right?

 

I agree that we can expect Leon to not be a great hitter next year, but nothing is "proven" about JBJ's inability to adjust to what pitchers were doing to him to end the season.

 

How many times can you guys get tricked by small sample sizes?

 

I'm not saying we don't have to make up for papi's loss soemwhere and then some, but giving 4-5 years for a DH only could hurt us in other ways down the road.

 

So, this would be the line-up:

 

1) R Pedey

2) R Bogey

3) R Betts

4) R Encarnacion

5) R HanRam

6) L Bradley

7) R Young/L Beni

8) S Pablo/L Shaw

9) S Leon/ R Vaz/ S Swihart

 

We only faced 37 LH'd starters this year, if we signed EE, teams may never throw a lefty at us.

 

 

 

 

This times 100. Couldn't have said it better myself

[moonslav59]

Would the CWS take Swihart, Basabe, Shaw, Owens and Johnson for Robertson and Frazier?

 

If you said no, would subbing Kopech for Basabe tilt the balance?

 

[moonslav59]

Word is the Royals are taking phone calls on Wade Davis.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Can I just say this? I don't want Joey Votto. I think he's exactly the wrong player to bring in for the same reason I'm lukewarm on Encarnacion.

 

Even though I made the suggestion, I share your trepidation for Votto. The more I think about it, the more I don't like it. As far as Encarnacion goes, he will cost money and two good prospects. That is, he will cost a first round pick in draft compensation. Once the Red Sox lose that first round slot money, they will not be able to draft a hard-to-sign prospect in the later rounds for over slot money.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Would the CWS take Swihart, Basabe, Shaw, Owens and Johnson for Robertson and Frazier?

 

If you said no, would subbing Kopech for Basabe tilt the balance?

 

 

I don't like Robertson and Frazier enough to give up that kind of young talent. I'm not giving up Basabe or Kopech unless I get back something I really like.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I definitely think the Red Sox might be missing a big time shutdown SP. When they won three W.S. Titles, look at who they had in their rotation: Schilling, Pedro, Beckett, Lester, Lackey. Price is supposed to be a big game pitcher, but, as we all know, he stinks in the postseason. Porcello had an excellent year but isn’t quite that dominant strikeout pitcher you look for in a big game.

 

Thus, I would like to see the Red Sox add one of the White Sox aces or see to what extent Jacob deGrom is available in a Bradley trade (the Mets need a CF). The Red Sox could replace Bradley by moving Betts to CF and signing our old friend, Josh Reddick.

 

If the Red Sox added an elite starting pitcher, they would have too many pitchers.

 

1. John Doe, acquired in a trade

2. D.Price

3. R.Porcello

4. S.Wright

5. E.Rodriguez

6. D.Pomeranz

 

If the Red Sox pick up Buchholz’s option, they would be pretty loaded with SP depth:

7. Buchholz

8. Johnson (has options)

9. Owens (has options)

 

In this scenario, the Red Sox could trade away a guy like Pomeranz. They could get a lot for him too, maybe a big bat, a 1b/DH type to replace Ortiz.

 

On the other hand, the Red Sox could go into 2017 with the rotation they already have. It might be good enough to get them another division title. It might be good enough to carry them in the postseason if Price and Porcello can come through in big games. Then again, I would hate to get to the postseason next year only to watch history repeat itself.

Edited October 15, 2016 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Kimmi]

A 2 WAR DH is harder to find than a 2 WAR position player, though, because they only get half credit.

 

Fair enough point.

 

The 5 WAR (or even the 2 WAR) does not have to be made up at the DH position alone though. Or I should say it doesn't have to be made up with one player. Perhaps we have a DH who provides 1.5 WAR and we improve the 3B position by .5 WAR. (Welcome back Pablo!)

 

Or we improve the BP to recoup some of the WAR lost by Papi.

 

Losing Papi hurts because he's Papi. I just don't think the team will be doomed if we don't replace him with an Encarnacion type.

 

Dombrowski will not stand pat this offseason. However, not standing pat does not necessarily mean a 'big splash'. We should all know by now that the big splashes tend not to work out.

[moonslav59]

Even though I made the suggestion, I share your trepidation for Votto. The more I think about it, the more I don't like it. As far as Encarnacion goes, he will cost money and two good prospects. That is, he will cost a first round pick in draft compensation. Once the Red Sox lose that first round slot money, they will not be able to draft a hard-to-sign prospect in the later rounds for over slot money.

 

Then, don't draft a "hard-to-sign player" in a later round.

[moonslav59]

I don't like Robertson and Frazier enough to give up that kind of young talent. I'm not giving up Basabe or Kopech unless I get back something I really like.

 

Both of these players fit a big need, bu what I don't like is the one year of control for Frazier and just two years for Robertsone, while Swihart alone has more years than the two combined. I like Basabe and Kopech. I like Swiharts too, but we will have to give to get no matter who we deal with. I doubt the CWS would take Basabe, Shaw, Owens and Johnson for the two or even Swi instead of Basabe.

[moonslav59]

If we did trade JBJ, I think we'd move Beni to CF and go with Young, Moncada, Holt and maybe Beltran in LF. I don't think Reddick is the left-handed hitter we want. The career .316 OBP is too frightening to me, though he has done better in his prime.

 

I do like the idea of getting an ace. It would take some pressure off our pen and move Porcello to #2, Price to #3 and so on... It would also add 2 of these guys, instead or one, to the pen:

 

Buchholz

Pomeranz

Wright

 

With bigger hopes on Kelly, barnes, hembree, Scott and a returning Carson Smith, now our pen looks a lot better.

[southpaw777]

I hold onto Kopech and Groome for right now. I think BOTH could be special. I want to see how Kopech does in AA this year. We need a power RHP in the rotation. Too many LHP IMHO. Also, if Kopech cant cut it as a starter, hes got 100++ in his back pocket so a closer is not out of the question. Right now I think I hold onto him. His value isnt really high but there are people watching him now since he hit 105 on the gun this year. Edited October 16, 2016 by southpaw777

[Dojji]

Fair enough point.

 

The 5 WAR (or even the 2 WAR) does not have to be made up at the DH position alone though. Or I should say it doesn't have to be made up with one player. Perhaps we have a DH who provides 1.5 WAR and we improve the 3B position by .5 WAR. (Welcome back Pablo!)

 

Or we improve the BP to recoup some of the WAR lost by Papi.

 

Losing Papi hurts because he's Papi. I just don't think the team will be doomed if we don't replace him with an Encarnacion type.

 

Dombrowski will not stand pat this offseason. However, not standing pat does not necessarily mean a 'big splash'. We should all know by now that the big splashes tend not to work out.

 

Kimmi, before we talk about Pablo improving a position that Shaw for all his faults provided 2+ WAR at, how about we let him have a year where he doesn't provide NEGATIVE WAR?

 

I think Pablo Sandoval's days as a major league 3B ended last year. He tried to play 3B this Spring and wound up injuring himself almost immediately on a routine play. He is simply too heavy to play 3B. He worked around that with sheer youthful energy in the past, but now he's getting a bit older and time and his weight have caught up with him.

 

I'm honestly not convinced he isn't too heavy to play 1B as well, the diving play on which I think he hurt himself is one he'd have had to make at first. But 3B is out of the question until Pablo himself proves otherwise on the field of play, much less positive WAR at that position for a guy whose last 2 years have looked a lot like a guy eating his way out of baseball and being completely unable to play the game competitively.

[Bellhorn04]

Kimmi, before we talk about Pablo improving a position that Shaw for all his faults provided 2+ WAR at, how about we let him have a year where he doesn't provide NEGATIVE WAR?

 

I think Pablo Sandoval's days as a major league 3B ended last year. He tried to play 3B this Spring and wound up injuring himself almost immediately on a routine play. He is simply too heavy to play 3B. He worked around that with sheer youthful energy in the past, but now he's getting a bit older and time and his weight have caught up with him.

 

I'm honestly not convinced he isn't too heavy to play 1B as well, the diving play on which I think he hurt himself is one he'd have had to make at first. But 3B is out of the question until Pablo himself proves otherwise on the field of play, much less positive WAR at that position for a guy whose last 2 years have looked a lot like a guy eating his way out of baseball and being completely unable to play the game competitively.

 

I have to agree. If we knew that Shaw could put up 2.2 WAR again next year we should welcome him back with open arms. It's a bit of a fantasy to think Pablo could exceed that.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, before we talk about Pablo improving a position that Shaw for all his faults provided 2+ WAR at, how about we let him have a year where he doesn't provide NEGATIVE WAR?

 

I think Pablo Sandoval's days as a major league 3B ended last year. He tried to play 3B this Spring and wound up injuring himself almost immediately on a routine play. He is simply too heavy to play 3B. He worked around that with sheer youthful energy in the past, but now he's getting a bit older and time and his weight have caught up with him.

 

I'm honestly not convinced he isn't too heavy to play 1B as well, the diving play on which I think he hurt himself is one he'd have had to make at first. But 3B is out of the question until Pablo himself proves otherwise on the field of play, much less positive WAR at that position for a guy whose last 2 years have looked a lot like a guy eating his way out of baseball and being completely unable to play the game competitively.

 

Let me first say that I am not suggesting that we simply hand the job over to Pablo. Shaw absolutely deserves a chance to fight for keeping his job, and Pablo has to prove that he is able to do the job better than Shaw. OTOH, I also don't think anyone should be ruling Pablo out either based on what happened this year. He gets the chance to prove or disprove that he is the best man for the job.

 

I am using at Fangraphs WAR. Our collective 3B WAR this season was 0.8, which puts us 29th out of 30 teams. Shaw was a 1.5 WAR player, but he had 0.8 WAR in April and 0.8 WAR in May. You can do the math to figure out what kind of player he was for most of the remainder of the season.

 

We could definitely use an upgrade at that position. If Shaw can bounce back and be close to the April/May player, than I'm all in for that. If he's going to be the replacement level player that he was the remainder of the season, then that won't cut it.

 

I'm pulling for Shaw. But then I'm also pulling for Pablo.

[moonslav59]

The issue with Shaw is that it seems more likely his plus offense to end 2015 and to start of 2016 was not a true indication of what we can expect going forward. It was significantly better than his record in AAA and AA. His OPS has been lower than his AA/AAA norm in 5 of his last 8 half seasons. His fielding at 3B may have been better than I expected, and he is really very good defensively at 1B, but I really do not see there being a good chance he could have a 2.2 WAR over 150 games at 3B next year.

 

The team's 3B WAR ranked 30th. There was a reason Shaw lost his job in the same way there was a reason Pablo lost it earlier.

 

[Dojji]

OTOH, I also don't think anyone should be ruling Pablo out either based on what happened this year.

 

I do.

 

Let me be clear about "What happened this year." Let me lay this out for you Kimmi, because last Spring if you recall I actually made arguments on your side of this discussion until 2 facts became clear.

 

1: Pablo had clearly lied about working hard on his conditioning that offseason. A man who claimed to be 20 pounds lighter showed up 30 pounds heavier maybe more. This is not about conditioning. This is about the fact that I cannot trust Pablo or his trainer or his handlers to TELL THE FREAKING TRUTH about how hard they're working this offseason. We can make no judgment on his conditioning until next February at the earliest, and history is not in Sandoval's favor here -- at all. Any offseason hype about Pablo's condition or his work ethic gets drowned in his sheer lack of honesty.

 

2: Pablo, who for all the crap he fed us offensively, was a good defender in 2015, immediately got hurt on a routine play only a few weeks after being allowed to even play part time at third base. That could easily happen again with the extra weight he carries. I am not in favor of setting any man up to injure himself. If we allow him to try to earn his job back immediately, he'll start writing checks his body can't cash trying to do exactly that, just like he did this year. It's the nature of the athlete. Just throwing him out there to win his job back without riding very careful herd on his health is an invitation to the guy to go wreck himself, possibly permanently this time.

 

I don't think it would be a kindness to Pablo not to bring him back to the field rather carefully. What that means to me is that no matter how good he looks, I'm not going to immediately make the mistake of asking him to go out there and injure himself trying to earn his job immediately -- instead I'm going to start Sandoval on a rehab assignment to Pawtucket in April that takes as long as it takes. If he shows he can handle first part time 3B, then after a few weeks, full time 3B with no adverse effects, in AAA, then we move on to the next step. If that means that we have an issue at 3B in April, and the first couple weeks of May so be it. Shaw gets at least that long to prove he can get back to the level of performance we came to expect of him in the first half this year.

[moonslav59]

I think we should try to get Pablo to check in for a physical on the 1st of every month this winter. If he's not showing steady weight loss AND improve conditioning, then we need to look for a bridge to Moncada/Devers at 3B for 2017.

 

Even if he is in shape, he may still be best used as a platoon DH with Young, so I'm on board with not even waiting. Let's see what the CWS want for Frazier, and while we're at it, let's see what a Frazier-Robertson return would cost us.

[Kimmi]

I do.

 

Let me be clear about "What happened this year." Let me lay this out for you Kimmi, because last Spring if you recall I actually made arguments on your side of this discussion until 2 facts became clear.

 

1: Pablo had clearly lied about working hard on his conditioning that offseason. A man who claimed to be 20 pounds lighter showed up 30 pounds heavier maybe more. This is not about conditioning. This is about the fact that I cannot trust Pablo or his trainer or his handlers to TELL THE FREAKING TRUTH about how hard they're working this offseason. We can make no judgment on his conditioning until next February at the earliest, and history is not in Sandoval's favor here -- at all. Any offseason hype about Pablo's condition or his work ethic gets drowned in his sheer lack of honesty.

 

2: Pablo, who for all the crap he fed us offensively, was a good defender in 2015, immediately got hurt on a routine play only a few weeks after being allowed to even play part time at third base. That could easily happen again with the extra weight he carries. I am not in favor of setting any man up to injure himself. If we allow him to try to earn his job back immediately, he'll start writing checks his body can't cash trying to do exactly that, just like he did this year. It's the nature of the athlete. Just throwing him out there to win his job back without riding very careful herd on his health is an invitation to the guy to go wreck himself, possibly permanently this time.

 

I don't think it would be a kindness to Pablo not to bring him back to the field rather carefully. What that means to me is that no matter how good he looks, I'm not going to immediately make the mistake of asking him to go out there and injure himself trying to earn his job immediately -- instead I'm going to start Sandoval on a rehab assignment to Pawtucket in April that takes as long as it takes. If he shows he can handle first part time 3B, then after a few weeks, full time 3B with no adverse effects, in AAA, then we move on to the next step. If that means that we have an issue at 3B in April, and the first couple weeks of May so be it. Shaw gets at least that long to prove he can get back to the level of performance we came to expect of him in the first half this year.

 

Thanks for laying that out for me, but IMO, you are still making some unfair assumptions. I am not going to rehash the whole 'Pablo is a lazy bum' argument, but you and others have already counted him out without giving him a chance.

 

If you don't think he deserves another chance, that's fine. If you don't want him on the team, that's fine as well.

 

That doesn't change the fact that what would be best for the team would be for Pablo to come back and be successful, whether he ends up playing the season for us or he ends up getting traded. Therefore, I will be pulling for him.

[Kimmi]

I think we should try to get Pablo to check in for a physical on the 1st of every month this winter. If he's not showing steady weight loss AND improve conditioning, then we need to look for a bridge to Moncada/Devers at 3B for 2017.

 

Even if he is in shape, he may still be best used as a platoon DH with Young, so I'm on board with not even waiting. Let's see what the CWS want for Frazier, and while we're at it, let's see what a Frazier-Robertson return would cost us.

 

I do think that the FO needs to have somebody monitoring his progress regularly, and I think it should be more often than the 1st of every month.

 

I am really hoping that the sting of not playing this season is enough to motivate him to stay on his program for not only the offseason, but the regular season next year as well.