Looking ahead to 2017

[dustcover]

IMO, Longoria is a solid third baseman, with .272 career BA and presently can be counted on for 30 HR and 100+ RBI's per season. Hitting at home at Fenway Park would be electric. Inserting him in a lineup with Pedroia, Betts, Bogaerts, Hanley, Benintendi, Bradley, Leon, and DH (hopefully Encarcion) would be any opposing pitcher's worst nightmare. His contract runs through 2022 @ just under $10M per year.

 

And Archer would be an excellent addition to the Sox rotation.

 

If you were in Dombrowski's shoes, would you explore the possibility of a blockbuster trade with the constantly-rebuilding Rays for these two players, and if so what would you be prepared to give up?

[Bellhorn04]

I'd love to have Longoria, but I think it's a pipe dream unless you really give up a lot, as in too much.

[Dojji]

In division trades are less likely than trades of other sort. The Rays are not going to trade franchise centerpieces to a divisional rival for any price we would accept.

[sk7326]

I am glad this did not start out with dealing Pedroia - although that itch will be scratched elsewhere I am sure.

 

Archer is precisely the sort of pitcher you wave prospects in front of Tampa for. Heck, throw in Pomeranz (young, under control) if the Rays want some major league value to go with it.

 

Longoria is a tougher get - he is a franchise player for them under a really good deal - and enough of an injury risk that I would not want to trade for him necessarily.

[Jasonbay44]

I think all 12 of the Rays fans would kill their GM and never be a fan of the team again if they traded their best player in franchise history to Boston.

[cp176]

I am glad this did not start out with dealing Pedroia - although that itch will be scratched elsewhere I am sure.

 

Archer is precisely the sort of pitcher you wave prospects in front of Tampa for. Heck, throw in Pomeranz (young, under control) if the Rays want some major league value to go with it.

 

Longoria is a tougher get - he is a franchise player for them under a really good deal - and enough of an injury risk that I would not want to trade for him necessarily.

 

If Tampa came a knocking looking for prospects and offering up Archer, I hope the Sox would open the door.

[sk7326]

If Tampa came a knocking looking for prospects and offering up Archer, I hope the Sox would open the door.

 

tricky thing is that Tampa is a smart organzation who won't sell low on Archer because he lost 19 games ... but he is worth making a strong play for

[jacksonianmarch]

Tampa is going to be a sexy pick for contention next year. Their injury woes this year were legendary. Cobb, Smyly, Snell, Odorizzi and Archer makes one hell of a top 5. They'll try to contend

[Kimmi]

I am not ready to look ahead to 2017 yet.

 

I am enjoying 2016 too much.

[Maxbialystock]

I am not ready to look ahead to 2017 yet.

 

I am enjoying 2016 too much.

 

Damn right. Horrible timing for the OP.

[cp176]

tricky thing is that Tampa is a smart organzation who won't sell low on Archer because he lost 19 games ... but he is worth making a strong play for

 

you are right here - just prospects for me to offer here though. I still believe that they lock up their current outfield so no one gets traded. they don't need to. What is the worst case scenario? We bring back essentially the same team with a legit bat to replace Ortiz? Not too bad. if you could land Archer say for prospects and say Shaw (first and third or dh), it would be a go. if it meant Moncada going, I could live with that for Archer.

[royf19]

I am not ready to look ahead to 2017 yet.

 

I am enjoying 2016 too much.

 

I agree.

[dustcover]

Damn right. Horrible timing for the OP.

 

I too am enjoying 2016, quite immensely I might add. But, in spite of which, I was just taking a page out of the 'Bill Belichick book' on playing in the present while keeping an eye to the future.

 

And I'll bet you dollars to donuts that Dombrowski is also already thinking about 2017.

Edited September 25, 2016 by dustcover

[Spudboy]

I am not ready to look ahead to 2017 yet.

 

I am enjoying 2016 too much.

 

I am just happy that you used TOO and not TO.

[Spudboy]

you are right here - just prospects for me to offer here though. I still believe that they lock up their current outfield so no one gets traded. they don't need to. What is the worst case scenario? We bring back essentially the same team with a legit bat to replace Ortiz? Not too bad. if you could land Archer say for prospects and say Shaw (first and third or dh), it would be a go. if it meant Moncada going, I could live with that for Archer.

 

As much as I like Shaw and believe that he will become better, I'd drop him like a bad habit to get Archer.

 

I would also make the move with Moncada.

 

It's all moot, I suspect.

 

The Rays won't be moving Archer unless someone in St. Petersburg goes of the deep end.

[Spudboy]

I too am enjoying 2016, quite immensely I might add. But, in spite of which, I was just taking a page out of the 'Bill Belichick book' on playing in the present while keeping an eye to the future.

 

And I'll bet you dollars to donuts that Dombrowski is also already thinking about 2017.

 

He better f***ing be. That is his job.

[greenwell]

As much as I like Shaw and believe that he will become better, I'd drop him like a bad habit to get Archer.

 

I would also make the move with Moncada.

 

It's all moot, I suspect.

 

The Rays won't be moving Archer unless someone in St. Petersburg goes of the deep end.

 

I wouldn't give up anything more than Shaw for Archer. He gave up a lot of HRs this year, and he has been horrible at Fenway.

[Dojji]

I am just happy that you used TOO and not TO.

 

As much as I like Shaw and believe that he will become better, I'd drop him like a bad habit to get Archer.

 

I would also make the move with Moncada.

 

It's all moot, I suspect.

 

The Rays won't be moving Archer unless someone in St. Petersburg goes of the deep end.

 

Did you do that on purpose to see who was paying attention? It seems so ironic to see "of" instead of "off" right after that other post.

[Kimmi]

I too am enjoying 2016, quite immensely I might add. But, in spite of which, I was just taking a page out of the 'Bill Belichick book' on playing in the present while keeping an eye to the future.

 

And I'll bet you dollars to donuts that Dombrowski is also already thinking about 2017.

 

Dombrowski was thinking about 2017 and beyond before he made his first move for the Sox.

 

We have had many discussions about what our roster or rotation might look like next year. No biggie.

[Kimmi]

I am just happy that you used TOO and not TO.

 

Haha. I'm sure I'm guilty of mixing up my homophones from time too time. Not because eye don't know the difference, but because the muscle memory in my fingers gets going two fast.

 

The won that bothers me the most is 'your' versus 'you're'.

[Spudboy]

Haha. I'm sure I'm guilty of mixing up my homophones from time too time. Not because eye don't know the difference, but because the muscle memory in my fingers gets going two fast.

 

The won that bothers me the most is 'your' versus 'you're'.

 

Me to!

[oldtimer]

10/5/2016

Red Sox Team Projections for 2017

The Red Sox will need to revamp some of the lineup next season with the retirement of Ortiz and the lack of performance at 3rd base. Also the Sox lack depth for at PH. I did some thinking and listed the Sox in terms of importance to the team and perhaps I am being harsh, but so be it.

Lineup Keepers:

1. Betts All around player, MVP candidate and good team mate.

2. Pedroia Very good fielder, excellent hitter and team captain material

3. Bogaerts Very good fielder, expected 300 hitter and very durable

4. Rameriz Acceptable fielder, probable 280 streaky hitter with much needed power

5. Bradley Gold glove outfielder with maybe a 270 avg and some power

6. Benintendi Solid young outfielder with probable solid BA and good speed, top of the order type

7. Young Good defensive outfielder and good hitter against lefties

Marginal Players:

1. Leon Good defensive catcher, hitting may fall to 250ish avg, overweight and DP in waiting

2. Hernandez Good utility infielder, young, strong and fast with good hitting approach

3. Vazquez Good defensive catcher with so far 220ish avg potential

4. Holt Good utility player who tends to wear down over season

5. Shaw Good fielder at either 1st or 3rd but unimpressive hitter

Probably Won’t be Here Next Year but tradable:

1. Hill Decent fielder but unimpressive hitter

2. Holaday Decent catcher but again unimpressive hitter

3. Marrero Utility infielder/outfielder but unimpressive hitter

4. Hannigan Decent catcher but very weak hitter

Prospects Currently On Board With a Chance of Making the Team

1. Swihart Good young talent who can play OF, 1st, catcher and PH.

2. Moncada Hot prospect but needs to develop. Maybe later in year

3. Sandoval High salaried guy with ML experience who needs to show determination

4. Rutledge Possible returner since he might fit the 3rd base needs. A long shot at this point

5. Devers Another possible 3rd base prospect with some power.

6. Travis Probably needs time to recover from off year and major injury

This team for 2017 is marginal at catcher, is missing a DH and is weak at 3rd base. We really could use a power bat as our competitors currently have more than we do in that way. I need to think more about the pitching, especially in the relief area.

[mvp 78]

Sandoval and Rutledge are prospects?

 

Hanigan and Hill are FA's.

[oldtimer]

Sandoval and Rutledge are prospects?

 

Hanigan and Hill are FA's.

 

Good that Hanigan and Hill are FA's. I doubt we can use them anyway.

 

I list Sandoval and Rutledge as prospects since I see them needing to fight for a spot next year. Perhaps prospects is the wrong category but what else would you call them?

[Bellhorn04]

Good that Hanigan and Hill are FA's. I doubt we can use them anyway.

 

I list Sandoval and Rutledge as prospects since I see them needing to fight for a spot next year. Perhaps prospects is the wrong category but what else would you call them?

 

Options?

[moonslav59]

I'm wondering if a big priority is to reset the luxury tax this winter. If we don't, I think we'll be at 50%.

 

Here's a look at the contracts:

 

Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young.

TOTAL: $123.35M

 

(Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.)

 

Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan

TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) to $17.25M (giving both). It's likely we'll let Hanigan go and keep Buch, so +$14.3M

 

Updated TOTAL (w/Buch): $138.95M

 

Arbs (9 players):

Bogaerts:$650K > ~$5.5M (1st of 3)

Bradley: $546K > ~$3.2M (1 of 4)

Pomeranz $1.35M> ~$3.5M (2 of 3)

J Kelly: $2.6M>$2.7M (2 of 3 arbs)

Ross: $1.25M> $1.7M (2 of 3)

Holt: $606K > $1.1M (1 of 3)

Leon: $minor > $1.0K (1 of 3)

Rutledge: $minor> $750K (1 of 3)

Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3)

TOTAL ARBS: ~$20.05M

 

TOTAL of 16 players: ~$159M (with Buch and no Hanigan)

 

The 24 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Holaday, Moncada

TOTAL: ~$13M

 

Grand Total: $172M

 

Now, add the $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is...

 

TOTAL $184M

 

That leaves us with about $4M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M. Let's assume it goes to $209M

 

That would mean we'll have about $25M to fill several holes.

 

Finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need 2-3 quality RP'ers and maybe an upgrade at SP'er. If we don't try to spend big to replace Papi, we will probably sign an aging vet to 1-2 year deal who plays corner IF and/or LF (Beltran?).

 

Holes and possible in-system solutions:

 

DH:

1) HanRam to DH and Shaw/Pablo/Swihart/Travis to 1B with Moncada/Shaw/Holt/Pablo/Hernandez at 3B

2) Young and Pablo platoon at DH

 

RP:

1) Carson Smith replaces Uehara

2) Hembree/Scott replaces Tazawa

3) Acquisition replaces Ziegler

 

Our pen as is looks like this for 2017:

RP1: Kimbrel

RP2: ______

RP3: C Smith

RP4: ______

RP5: Ross

RP6: 1 from- Buch/Erod/Wright/Pomeranz

RP7: Kelly

Others: Barnes, Abad, Scott, Hembree, Elias, Owens, Johnson, Workman, Ramirez, Martin, Haley, Jerez, Cuevas

 

[moonslav59]

Lineup Keepers:

1. Betts All around player, MVP candidate and good team mate.

Could esily keep gettine better.

 

2. Pedroia Very good fielder, excellent hitter and team captain material.

Could possibly decline from this year's performance level.

 

3. Bogaerts Very good fielder, expected 300 hitter and very durable

Decent fielder. I expected further improvement on defense, but he may have actually stepped back a little from 2015.

 

4. Rameriz Acceptable fielder, probable 280 streaky hitter with much needed power

Barel acceptable on D to me. If the DH job suits him, I'd slide him over to DH, even if just vs RHPs as Young DHs vs LHPs.

 

5. Bradley Gold glove outfielder with maybe a 270 avg and some power

I can see 30+ HRs next year. I'm looking at his OBP more than BA and would love to see more even splits.

 

6. Benintendi Solid young outfielder with probable solid BA and good speed, top of the order type

Hopefully, he can play FT and then we can use Young at DH vs lefties. I love this kid!

 

7. Young Good defensive outfielder and good hitter against lefties

He's great vs lefties and should be in the top 5-6 when we face a LH'd starter.

 

Marginal Players:

1. Leon Good defensive catcher, hitting may fall to 250ish avg, overweight and DP in waiting.

I think he'll be fine next year- not great, but fine.

 

2. Hernandez Good utility infielder, young, strong and fast with good hitting approach

I still see upside on this kid. I hope he gets a long look sometime, but with a contending team, that may be hard.

 

3. Vazquez Good defensive catcher with so far 220ish avg potential

Sample size is still to small to know much about his offense, Love his D.

 

4. Holt Good utility player who tends to wear down over season

He actually did not wilt this year, but he did have the concussion.I'm not sure we need Holt, Hernandez and Swihart all on the 25 man roster, especially if Moncada or Pablo make the cut.

 

5. Shaw Good fielder at either 1st or 3rd but unimpressive hitter

He's an excellent defensive 1Bman, but likely will not hit well enough to be a FT 1Bman. His D at 3B is fine, but he may be lucky to just win a platoon role at 3B.

 

Probably Won’t be Here Next Year but tradable:

1. Hill Decent fielder but unimpressive hitter

2. Holaday Decent catcher but again unimpressive hitter

I think with hanigan going, Holaday may stay on, but a lot depends on what the plans are for Swihart.

3. Marrero Utility infielder/outfielder but unimpressive hitter

Still has options, so he'll be at AAA next year.

4. Hannigan Decent catcher but very weak hitter

Prospects Currently On Board With a Chance of Making the Team

1. Swihart Good young talent who can play OF, 1st, catcher and PH.

2. Moncada Hot prospect but needs to develop. Maybe later in year

3. Sandoval High salaried guy with ML experience who needs to show determination

4. Rutledge Possible returner since he might fit the 3rd base needs. A long shot at this point

5. Devers Another possible 3rd base prospect with some power.

Not in 2017.

6. Travis Probably needs time to recover from off year and major injury

 

This team for 2017 is marginal at catcher, is missing a DH and is weak at 3rd base. We really could use a power bat as our competitors currently have more than we do in that way. I need to think more about the pitching, especially in the relief area.

 

I put out priorities as such:

 

1) Top set-up man that can fill in as closer, if needed

2) Decent middle RP'er.

3) 3Bman with power (probably on a short term deal)

[sk7326]

More relievers is always a priority - so that has not changed ... for the most part who will be good is hard to gauge so you are probably best just stocking up and seeing what happens

 

Another bat would be helpful - what position is an open question.

 

Obviously if you can get an impact starter you need to look into it.

[moonslav59]

More relievers is always a priority - so that has not changed ... for the most part who will be good is hard to gauge so you are probably best just stocking up and seeing what happens

 

Another bat would be helpful - what position is an open question.

 

Obviously if you can get an impact starter you need to look into it.

 

We probably needed another reliever this year, so losing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa puts us maybe 4 down. Maybe, just maybe, Carson Smith fills one and Kelly or Scott fills another, but I'm still think 2 significant RP'er acquisitions are called for.

 

The thing about getting a big bat is that it basically blocks Moncada and/or writes of Pablo's $19.5M. I'm wondering if we might wait to see how things shake out, maybe pick-up a one year bridge batter, and take a look at the deadline, if needed.

[oldtimer]

Lineup Keepers:

1. Betts All around player, MVP candidate and good team mate.

Could esily keep gettine better.

 

2. Pedroia Very good fielder, excellent hitter and team captain material.

Could possibly decline from this year's performance level.

 

3. Bogaerts Very good fielder, expected 300 hitter and very durable

Decent fielder. I expected further improvement on defense, but he may have actually stepped back a little from 2015.

 

4. Rameriz Acceptable fielder, probable 280 streaky hitter with much needed power

Barel acceptable on D to me. If the DH job suits him, I'd slide him over to DH, even if just vs RHPs as Young DHs vs LHPs.

 

5. Bradley Gold glove outfielder with maybe a 270 avg and some power

I can see 30+ HRs next year. I'm looking at his OBP more than BA and would love to see more even splits.

 

6. Benintendi Solid young outfielder with probable solid BA and good speed, top of the order type

Hopefully, he can play FT and then we can use Young at DH vs lefties. I love this kid!

 

7. Young Good defensive outfielder and good hitter against lefties

He's great vs lefties and should be in the top 5-6 when we face a LH'd starter.

 

Marginal Players:

1. Leon Good defensive catcher, hitting may fall to 250ish avg, overweight and DP in waiting.

I think he'll be fine next year- not great, but fine.

 

2. Hernandez Good utility infielder, young, strong and fast with good hitting approach

I still see upside on this kid. I hope he gets a long look sometime, but with a contending team, that may be hard.

 

3. Vazquez Good defensive catcher with so far 220ish avg potential

Sample size is still to small to know much about his offense, Love his D.

 

4. Holt Good utility player who tends to wear down over season

He actually did not wilt this year, but he did have the concussion.I'm not sure we need Holt, Hernandez and Swihart all on the 25 man roster, especially if Moncada or Pablo make the cut.

 

5. Shaw Good fielder at either 1st or 3rd but unimpressive hitter

He's an excellent defensive 1Bman, but likely will not hit well enough to be a FT 1Bman. His D at 3B is fine, but he may be lucky to just win a platoon role at 3B.

 

Probably Won’t be Here Next Year but tradable:

1. Hill Decent fielder but unimpressive hitter

2. Holaday Decent catcher but again unimpressive hitter

I think with hanigan going, Holaday may stay on, but a lot depends on what the plans are for Swihart.

3. Marrero Utility infielder/outfielder but unimpressive hitter

Still has options, so he'll be at AAA next year.

4. Hannigan Decent catcher but very weak hitter

Prospects Currently On Board With a Chance of Making the Team

1. Swihart Good young talent who can play OF, 1st, catcher and PH.

2. Moncada Hot prospect but needs to develop. Maybe later in year

3. Sandoval High salaried guy with ML experience who needs to show determination

4. Rutledge Possible returner since he might fit the 3rd base needs. A long shot at this point

5. Devers Another possible 3rd base prospect with some power.

Not in 2017.

6. Travis Probably needs time to recover from off year and major injury

 

This team for 2017 is marginal at catcher, is missing a DH and is weak at 3rd base. We really could use a power bat as our competitors currently have more than we do in that way. I need to think more about the pitching, especially in the relief area.

 

I put out priorities as such:

 

1) Top set-up man that can fill in as closer, if needed

2) Decent middle RP'er.

3) 3Bman with power (probably on a short term deal)

 

Both posts are informative and excellent